According to a report in The
Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, Israel notified
the United States about its intentions to establish a one-kilometre buffer zone
along the Gaza-Israel border soon
after Israel declared war on Hamas.
The report cited an unnamed Israeli official who said that a
"temporary security buffer zone would likely be part of the demilitarisation process
of the Gaza enclave.
“Such
a buffer zone could ensure security in the Gaza periphery communities targeted in the Hamas massacres
on October 7.”
The WSJ report
also noted that construction of such a buffer
zone is liable to exacerbate
tensions between Israel and the U.S. and its other Western allies who have
warned against ‘shrinking
Gaza.’
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "We’ve been very clear about
opposition to any permanent change to Gaza’s territorial configuration." Blinken was reiterating Washington's stance against
occupation of the Strip by the IDF or permanent displacement of its residents.
It is unclear whether the U.S. discouraged Israel
when the buffer zone idea was first brought up. But Washington appears to
acknowledge Israel's quest for security guarantees after the war with Hamas
ends.
"They’re not just going to pick up and leave a
complete security vacuum in Gaza, so there’s going to have to be a transition
period of some sort," the U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller
said earlier in January.
On Monday the
IDF suffered the worst
single loss in the Gaza ground operation. The Wall Street Journal describing the incident said twenty-four
Israeli soldiers were killed, 21
of them reservists, when
Hamas terrorists attacked the force with rocket-propelled grenades. The Israeli forces were operating
inside Gaza around 600 metres west of Kibbutz Kissufim in southern Israel.
"In discussing the deaths of the soldiers, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.
Gen. Herzi Halevi used the term 'buffer zone.' He said they had been killed
while operating 'in the buffer zone between Israeli communities and Gaza' as
part of efforts to 'create security conditions' for Israelis to return to
their homes near the border with Gaza."
Halevi met with commanders at the scene of the incident, and was
briefed on the initial investigation of the blast.
“We, as always, will investigate the matter
in depth and learn the lessons while the fighting continues. The initial probe is being
conducted with the aim of preventing a recurrence of the
incident”
On the ground, fighting raged in Khan Yunis, Gaza's
main southern city, which the IDF has
"encircled".
I have often wondered how
Hamas leaders in the Gaza strip manage to communicate with one another undetected
by Israel’s sophisticated eavesdropping technology. Hamas is said
to have employed a
landline phone network since 2009. However, war
damage to the landline has forced Hamas to revert to even lower-tech
methods.
Hamas leaders, hunkered down in subterranean bunkers
in the Gaza Strip, are reportedly communicating with each other using
handwritten notes carried around the war-torn territory by runners.
The memos are even enabling communication with
senior officials abroad, the Saudi-owned Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported recently.
Jamie Dettmer opinion editor at POLITICO Europe said,” Today, Israelis
don’t believe a Jewish state can live alongside a Palestinian one.
As it stands, they have lost all faith in a
two-state solution — not that they had much to begin with, even before Hamas’
October 7 attacks on southern Israel. Rather, they want bigger and better
fortifications and greater vigilance in the wake of the intelligence and
security lapses that failed to prevent what was clearly a long-planned pogrom.
“Israelis are in a belligerent mood,” pollster Dahlia Scheindlin told POLITICO.
She was speaking after a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 75
percent of Jewish Israelis think the country should ignore mounting
pressure from the United States to wind down the war in Gaza. And another
poll by Gallup recently showed that 65 percent oppose the establishment of
an independent Palestinian state.
This hardening of Israeli opinion regarding a
two-state solution is in lockstep with clear signs that the October 7 attacks
will tilt the country further right, dominated in its vanguard by the ideas of
West Bank settlers who want Israel to have the footprint of all the biblical
lands of the Jews. This is in keeping with a historical pattern, Scheindlin
said — whenever Israel is dealt a major violent shock, right-wing parties and
politicians benefit.
However, if elections are held soon, this won’t
necessarily benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself or his Likud
Party. Most Israelis blame Netanyahu for the bloody security debacle, and
seething with anger, they just want him gone — whether sooner or later. But
according to Scheindlin, the basic direction of political orientation is
unlikely to budge with or without him.
This suggests that the overarching question about
Palestinians’ future and their national aspirations will continue to be
sidelined — let alone serious talk of the two-state solution.
From 7 October onward, Israelis have clung to the
one hope that unified this normally fractious and now broken society: freeing
the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. The faces of those stolen people haunt us
on every street. Hope soared when nearly half of the hostages were released in
a temporary ceasefire deal last November, and Israelis took to the streets
demanding more.
But Israel’s government is hardly rushing to cut
another such deal. The first one forced it to make painful concessions. Israel
released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, which encourages further
hostage-taking; such deals can include dangerous prisoners, and the whole
situation left some Israeli families elated as their loved ones returned, while
others remain in agony wondering if their loved ones will be released before it
is too late.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, US sources estimate that Israel
has killed 20% to 30% of Hamas forces in Gaza. Those figures, somewhat less
than the Israeli assessment, are nothing to scoff at or declare a failure.
In three months, Israel has taken out about a third
of Hamas. From the beginning, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this war
would not be six days or even three weeks. A year was mentioned as part of the
painstaking process of dismantling tunnels in Gaza and going door-to-door in
search of terrorists and the hostages.
The IDF seems to be on track with that yearlong
framework. Between external pressure over the high civilian
casualties in Gaza and internal pressures over the inability to free more
hostages following the November ceasefire deal, it remains to be seen if Israel
will be given the time to complete the task.
A premature end to the war will leave a battered
Hamas still intact and able to recover and regain its stranglehold on Gaza and
the Palestinians it has held hostage since 2006. And that’s something Israel
can’t live with. Just ask Khaled Mashaal. The Hamas leader reiterated in an
interview last week that post-October 7, “our Palestinian project is our right
in Palestine from the river to
the sea.”
The families of the hostages and their supporters
are perfectly justified and correct in their ongoing protests and calls for a
ceasefire and a deal to bring their loved ones home. Anyone with a family
member who has been cruelly held captive for more than three months should be
demanding action and accountability from their government.
A government must also look at the bigger picture,
however, and in this case, it is the threat posed by Hamas that is the
overriding factor in fuelling this war.
The problem is a significant breach of trust
regarding Netanyahu’s motives among a large population segment. We don’t know
what they are, whether they are for country’s good, or for the survival of the
government he leads, or to stave off the inevitable storm of blame that will
likely sweep him away after the war.
If the current government was dissolved and new
elections were held, there’s a good chance that the next prime minister would
be someone other than Netanyahu.
But despite the change at the helm or within the
coalition’s makeup, the next prime minister would almost certainly adopt the
same policy as Netanyahu: no withdrawal from Gaza and a continuation of
fighting until Hamas is no longer in charge.
The IDF must be given time to carry out that mission
in Gaza. But time is running out regarding the hostages.
Before I conclude I want to
add a disclaimer regarding some of the opinions I have mentioned. I quote them
because they are relevant.
Have a good weekend.
Beni,
25th of January, 2024.