The day after.

 

In a report she wrote for The Media Line journalist Debbie Mohnblatt chose to quote Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs, former director-general of the Israeli Strategic Affairs Ministry, and head of the Research Division of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate.

In addition, Ms. Mohnblatt drew on comments made by Professor Efraim Inbar, who serves as president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

I have added a few brief comments of my own in italics

Yossi Kuperwasser argues that, strategically, Rafah is the most crucial part of the Gaza Strip for the IDF to control as it serves as Hamas's gateway to the world. "As long as they control it, they can bring in weapons and goods," he said.  

Likewise, Efraim Inbar posits that the IDF operation that took over the Rafah crossing seriously undermines Hamas's control over Gaza as the crossing is constantly used to enhance the organisation’s military capabilities. 

Inbar added that while this significantly limits Hamas's smuggling capabilities, there are tunnels that remain along the Philadelphi corridor, which lies along Gaza's border with Egypt; these tunnels must be destroyed to completely prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and goods. 

In addition to Rafah being Hamas's last stronghold and gateway to the world, Kuperwasser believes that the operation in Rafah is crucial for Israel's deterrence capabilities. Inbar and Kuperwasser stressed that time is crucial for a successful conclusion to the war in Gaza.

Kuperwasser agrees and warns that Israel needs to make sure that despite the lack of American support for the incursion, the IDF has to conduct it in a way that considers Washington's concerns. 

“In addition, Kuperwasser,” said “Israel must make sure it will not cause direct tension between Israel and Egypt. "We have to make sure that nobody goes into Egypt. The Egyptians are on the border to make sure it doesn't happen, but we will also have to take this into account during the operation." 

“Militarily speaking, Hamas's tunnel infrastructure along the Philadelphi corridor is certainly a challenge.” Yossi Kuperwasser concluded.

in an opinion piece he wrote for Ynet news, the IDF’s Intrepid supporter, Colonel Richard Kemp said, “Biden's cynical Rafah obsession only strengthens Hamas. Biden hopes preventing Israeli military actions in Rafah would win back the anti-Israel elements of his support base, but he only makes Hamas stronger by doing so.

 Biden’s cynical obsession with preventing Israel from finishing off Hamas in a major offensive in Rafah will have the opposite effect from the one he intends.”

Other highly respected military observers have expressed serious doubts if Hamas can be ‘finished off.’

Kemp continued, “His analysis of U.S. electoral projections has convinced him that he must be seen to stand against Israel as the voting intentions of some of his supporters, especially young people, will be damaging to his prospects for a second term unless there is a course correction.

Thus, we have seen direct public attacks on Netanyahu and his cabinet by Biden and his supporters such as Chuck Schumer, outrageously calling for replacement of the democratically-elected government of an allied country.

While appreciating Richard Kemp’s supportive comments, they come at a time when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is concerned that Israel’s failure to lay down a template for the governance of Gaza meant that its victories might not be “sustainable” and would be followed by “chaos, by anarchy and ultimately by Hamas again.” 

Veteran British journalist Peter Beaumont reporting for The Guardian said

“A long-festering split at the heart of Israel’s war cabinet has burst into the open with the defence minister, Yoav Gallant, challenging the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to come up with plans for the ‘day after’ the war in Gaza, and saying he would not permit any solution where Israeli military or civil governance were in the territory.

Gallant’s comments, immediately plunged Israel’s leadership into a highly public row, in the midst of the Gaza conflict, raising speculation over his future in the Israeli government and of Netanyahu’s fractious coalition.

In uncompromising remarks, Gallant – whose firing last year by Netanyahu triggered mass protests, a political crisis and an eventual reversal by the PM – publicly demanded that Netanyahu describe plans for a ‘day-after plan’ for Gaza.

Gallant’s comments provoked an immediate political row, with Netanyahu pushing back rapidly with a videotaped statement and a call from the far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, for Gallant to be replaced.

Gallant was backed, however, by his fellow war cabinet minister Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff, who said Gallant had spoken the ‘truth’.

At a press conference on Wednesday evening in Tel Aviv, Gallant said he had asked for an alternative governing body to Hamas to be found, and did not receive a response.

In his remarks, Gallant criticised the lack of any political planning for the ‘day after’.

Gallant’s comments come after months of tension between the two men and recent reports in the Hebrew media that senior IDF officers had become concerned that the lack of an alternative to Hamas was forcing the IDF to return and fight in areas where they claimed Hamas had already been defeated, including northern Gaza, which has seen heavy fighting this week.

“As early as October 7, the military establishment said that it was necessary to work towards finding an alternative to Hamas,” Gallant said, adding, “the end of the military campaign is a political decision. The day after Hamas will only be achieved by actors who replace Hamas. This is first and foremost an Israeli interest.”

Gallant said that military planning “was not raised for a discussion, and worse, no alternative was brought in its place. A military-civilian regime in Gaza is a bad and dangerous alternative for the state of Israel.

“I will not agree to the establishment of a military government in Gaza,” he said, adding a “civilian-military regime in Gaza will become the main effort in there and come at the expense of other arenas. We will pay for it in blood and victims – and it will come at a heavy economic cost.”

The comments by Gallant appeared to be the culmination of growing frustration with Netanyahu among Israel’s military leadership.

In his column in The Washington Post David Ignatius wrote, “`This open, public campaign for a new approach to postwar Gaza that includes Palestinian security forces could split the Likud party, of which Gallant and Netanyahu are both members, and increase what has been growing talk in Israel and the United States that Gallant could be a future prime minister.”

In my humble opinion it’s far too early to predict who will be our next prime minister. Furthermore, there are other claimants for the post.

 

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

16th of May, 2024

 

Rafah on my mind.

 

On Monday last week Reuters reported that plans to attack Rafah would be shelved in favour of a "sustained period of calm" if a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israeli was reached. Days earlier, Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Israeli TV Channel 12 that "if there will be a deal, we will suspend the [Rafah] operation.”  However, on Tuesday the prime minister insisted that the war would continue until Israel had achieved all of its objectives in Rafah. In order to avoid any misunderstanding, Netanyahu said he would invade Rafah "with or without" a deal, further confirming that he is prioritising his political survival.                                       Now, regarding the ongoing hostage talks, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller pushed back on the claim made by Hamas on Monday that it had accepted the truce proposal that was on the table.                                                                             Israel had agreed to what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described as a “generous” hostage deal proposal late last month,” Miller began. “That’s the offer that was on the table.”                                                                                                         “Hamas seemed to make clear in their public statements that they accepted that offer yesterday. That is not what they did. They responded with… a counter-proposal, and we’re working through the details of that now,” he said, noting that CIA chief Bill Burns is in Cairo along with delegations from Israel, Hamas and Qatar.

Tamir Hayman, Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, clarified some of the misconceptions regarding the IDF incursion in Rafah this week.  I’m mentioning his analysis because Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman is eminently qualified to proffer his opinion. However, in order to include other opinions, I’ll restrict my comments to Hayman’s opening remarks: -

“I would like to put in order what seems to be contradictory: an unnecessary delay and frankly, for the first time in a month, an Israeli initiative that might lead us to the end of the war.

Hamas has apparently agreed to the offer. However, this is a fundamentally different proposal than the one Israel agreed to. There are two main points of contention: The end of the war and the identity of the prisoners who are serving life sentences and will be released as part of the deal. On the first issue, Israel finds the mediators’ proposal acceptable because the phrase ‘End of the war’ is not mentioned. The phrase in the proposal ‘cessation of activity’ is vague, and it allows flexibility for renewing the war in the future, should Israel choose to do so. The catch is in the second issue, which is completely unacceptable.  Namely, Israel will waive the right to oppose the decision about the Palestinian prisoners to be released.”

On a number of occasions, I have mentioned Col. Richard Kemp, the former commander of British forces in Afghanistan and an expert on warfare. Kemp claims that the IDF in Gaza ‘did more to safeguard the rights of civilians in a combat zone than any other army in the history of warfare.

 Israel must push on with its plans and not buckle to international pressure, no matter how great.

In an op-ed he wrote for the UK news website The Telegraph Kemp said -                       ” Hamas’s agreement on Monday to a ceasefire deal that was never on the table was yet another ruse to buy time and build international pressure to halt a major IDF operation in Rafah. It was a sign of the terrorists’ desperation to prevent the destruction of their final stronghold. An IDF move into Rafah has been delayed far too long. It is the result of months of fruitless negotiations over the release of hostages that never showed any sign of materialising. Yet Israel had little option than to play along while even the smallest glimmer of hope existed. 

The delay was also brought about by unbearable pressure from the US and other Israeli allies, with Biden repeatedly forbidding an attack on Rafah without what he called a ‘credible and executable plan’ to protect or evacuate the civilian population there. Similar demands were recently parroted by Lord Cameron during a visit to Jerusalem. No plan the IDF drew up ever met Biden’s stipulations, but then no plan could have done so if his real intention was to block the final destruction of Hamas amid growing concerns about adverse effects on his own electoral prospects. Of course, one credible plan would have been to allow civilians to take temporary refuge through the Egyptian border into Sinai. Biden could have brought that about by pushing Cairo to agree but neither he nor any other international leader ever even raised a finger to do so. That unforgivable failure, which played right into Hamas’s hands, has contributed to many of the civilian deaths during this war and will likely lead to many more. 

The IDF has been making preliminary moves against Rafah on the ground and from the air. Quite rightly, Jerusalem has not signalled its immediate intentions. Those may be to shape the battlefield for future large-scale operations, including spurring the civilian population to evacuate Rafah to designated humanitarian zones and adding pressure on Hamas to free the hostages. Nor is it impossible that an apparently inevitable push into Rafah might impel elements of the Hamas leadership to make good their escape from Gaza while they still can. After all, they have witnessed the collapse of every one of their formed fighting units as the IDF advanced through the rest of Gaza.

 Whether this turns out to be a limited operation or something more sustained, Israel is going to have to deal with Hamas by an offensive in Rafah if it is to achieve its goal of dismantling the terrorist threat to its citizens. One thing we can be sure of is that the US and other Western countries will continue to browbeat Israel not to do so and instead to end the war. 

These countries will be pushed further into acting against Israel by two separate phenomena. First, Iran will try to protect its proxies in Gaza by again stepping up aggression from its militant networks in the region. That in turn will raise renewed trepidation in our capitals about escalation and wider conflict. Second, expect demonstrations on university campuses and in the streets to intensify even further. The impact of Gaza-related agitation on some recent local elections in Britain will be fresh in the minds of our politicians. Rishi Sunak says he’s ‘deeply concerned’ about the prospects of a military incursion into Rafah and according to Keir Starmer it ‘must not go ahead’. 

Biden’s trepidation over widespread protests in an election year is only too clear. As the IDF moved against Rafah yesterday, the Biden administration continued its public opposition to Israel’s very objectives in Gaza, with White House spokesman John Kirby saying: “You’re not going to eliminate an ideology through military operations”. This tired mantra is a false argument against pretty much any military solution to any aggressor. Why did the US fight against Isis, which represents the same ideology as Hamas? Why is Ukraine bothering to resist the military manifestation of Putin’s ideology? 

It shouldn’t need saying that it is absolutely vital for Israel to eliminate Hamas’s capability to continue translating its twisted ideology into physical violence. That means their physical destruction in Rafah. Israel must push on with its plans and not buckle to international pressure, no matter how great. Failure to do so would amount to nothing less than strategic defeat.”

Concurrently, a number of international news sites reported that the IDF has begun evacuating civilians from eastern Rafah to a new expanded humanitarian zone which includes al-Mawasi and parts of Khan Yunis and central Gaza. The IDF confirmed on Monday morning that the evacuation comes ahead of planned IDF operations in the Rafah area.

The new humanitarian zone includes field hospitals, tents, and increased provisions of food, water, medicine, and other supplies.

Additionally, the IDF is working in cooperation with organisations and several countries to allow an increase of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

To that effect, the IDF is calling on the population currently under Hamas control to evacuate temporarily from the eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah to the new zone. The evacuation will be conducted in a phased manner in accordance with continuing situation assessments.

The call to evacuate is being made through leaflets, text messages, phone calls, and statements in Arabic.

Shortly after the IDF announcement, Palestinian media reported that the IDF began dropping leaflets over Rafah informing civilians about the evacuation. The leaflets warned that Gaza City is still off limits and considered a "dangerous combat zone" and that it is "forbidden to approach the eastern and southern security fence."

Witnesses on the ground told Reuters on Monday morning that some families had begun evacuating the area under the evacuation order.

The General Authority for Crossings and Borders in Gaza said that the Rafah crossing was still operating as usual, after some reports by Arabic media stated that the crossing was closed.

The evacuation was for a limited area as of Monday, including an area where about 100,000 people are believed to be staying at the moment, according to Israeli news media.

The cabinet decided on the evacuation on Sunday night, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant informing US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin about the decision overnight.

During the discussion, Gallant also informed Austin about the rocket barrage fired at Kerem Shalom. The defence minister detailed the efforts the government made toward trying to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal, insisting that, at this stage, Hamas was refusing all proposals.

Gallant stressed during the conversation that "there was no choice left, and this meant the start of the Israeli operation in Rafah." Gallant thanked Austin for the close cooperation between Israel and the US.

A readout of the call published by the US Defence Department overnight said that the two discussed the ongoing hostage negotiations, humanitarian aid efforts, and Rafah. Austin expressed his condolences for the IDF soldiers killed in the rocket attack on Kerem Shalom and reaffirmed his commitment to the unconditional return of all the hostages.

Austin stressed that any potential military operation in Rafah needed to include a "credible plan to evacuate Palestinian civilians and maintain the flow of humanitarian aid."

According to the Israel public broadcasting corporation (KAN), Israel told Egypt about the evacuation as well and stressed that this is only to prepare for a limited operation in the Rafah area.

According to a report in The Economist “When Hamas announced, on the evening of May 6th, that it had agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, the mood in Rafah turned jubilant. Thousands of people cheered and danced in the streets of Gaza’s southernmost city, hopeful that there might soon be an end to the seven-month war that has devastated the Palestinian enclave. The celebrations were premature. Israeli officials said there were problems with the proposed agreement—that it was different from the earlier text that they had agreed to last month (foreign diplomats insisted the changes were minor). The next morning a column of Israeli tanks rumbled along the Philadelphi corridor, a strip of land along Egypt’s border with Gaza, and seized the Rafah crossing, the main entry point for humanitarian aid throughout much of the war.

There’s a good measure of naiveté in the claims made by the foreign diplomats cited above.

Deutsche Welle (DW) reported that in April, the IDF said it had purchased 40,000 tents to prepare for evacuation ahead of its planned ground offensive. 

According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, “The IDF plans to ‘proceed in phases’ evacuating neighbourhoods in advance before moving onto new areas. 

Israel believes Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas,

Israel has claimed that up to four of the 24 Hamas brigades are still hiding in or under Rafah. Hamas has been weakened by seven months of fighting with Israel but hasn't been defeated militarily.”

An IDF spokesperson said the supply of humanitarian aid to the local population would continue during the evacuation operation. The plan is to bring the aid supplies to the Gaza Strip via the Israeli port of Ashdod, which is some 30 kilometres to the north.

Meanwhile, the US continues to press for a peaceful solution. According to media reports, CIA Director William Burns is still hoping for a deal.

Nevertheless, in what appears to be a change of heart, the Biden administration appeared to signal its initial approval of the Rafah incursion launched by Israel early Tuesday morning to take over the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.

Spokespeople for the administration said the goals of the operation were legitimate, but warned that this assessment could change if the offensive expands in scope and leads to an extended hampering of aid shipments into Gaza.

“What we’ve been told by our Israeli counterparts is that this operation last night was limited, and designed to prevent Hamas’s ability to smuggle weapons and funds into Gaza,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in a briefing.

“This does appear to be a limited operation so far, but it does to a great extent depend on what comes next,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a separate briefing.

Judging by what I have read and heard, the Rafah incursion is proceeding according to plan and will end well.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

9th of May, 2024.

 

 

Rafah

 

 

Understandably, ‘Black Saturday’ is usually associated with the brutal assault carried out by Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups on Israeli communities in the Gaza periphery on October 7, 2023.

However, it also brings to mind an earlier ‘Black Saturday.’

At dawn on Saturday, June 29, 1946, a curfew was imposed throughout British Mandatory Palestine. Seventeen thousand British troops were dispatched to institutions and settlements to seize arms and documents and to arrest the leaders of the Yishuv and of the Haganah.

During that Black Saturday, more than 2,700 Jews were arrested throughout the country and taken to the Rafiah (Rafah) detention camp.

One of them was my father-in-law, Gad Tavel. During the two months he was interned at Rafah he communicated with his wife and daughters at Ein Harod by post. We still have a sketch he made of the detention camp.

 Israel’s hostage dilemma is one of the most challenging the country has ever faced. Among the calls to free them “at any price” is the claim that freeing hostages is the highest Jewish value. A closer look at this topic in post-Biblical commentaries shows a far more nuanced approach.

Notable among the people advocating different opinions are a number of highly esteemed medieval Jewish law (Halacha) commentators. Perhaps the greatest of all was Maimonides who argued that ransoming Jewish lives takes precedence over providing alms for the poor in one’s community. A few centuries later, the authoritative book of commandments, the Shulkhan Arukh, penned by Rabbi Yosef Karo, stated unequivocally: “Every moment that one delays in ransoming Jewish captives… is tantamount to spilling blood.”

The opinions of both renowned sages are equally relevant today.

 At this juncture it’s important to add that the texts I have quoted are open-source, and publicly accessible. 

In one of my posts written in 2009 I mentioned a meeting between Minister of Defence at that time, Ehud Barak and a group of Israeli high school students. In an obvious reference to Gilad Shalit a senior student due to be called up for military service asked, “If I fall into enemy hands can the state guarantee my safety?”

Barak's answer was blunt and to the point. “The state can't even guarantee you will stay alive." He said facing the student but directing his remarks to attentive ears in Gaza. "The state of Israel is willing to do anything to free kidnapped soldiers – but not at any price."

Later the same day a Hamas spokesman intimated that Barak’s ‘message’ had been received.

For the purpose of clarification, I’m adding a margin note: - Gilad Shalit as we well remember, was held captive by Hamas for five years and four months. He was released after a lopsided deal was reached between Israel and Hamas to free him in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian and Israeli Arab prisoners.

Yahya Sinwar, currently the Hamas leader in Gaza was among the Palestinian prisoners included in the deal. At that time, he had served 22 years in prison for orchestrating the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he believed were collaborating with Israel.

Fast forward to the present day.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said early on Tuesday, after returning from talks in the Middle East, that negotiations had reached the point where it was up to Hamas to take the next step. Her visit included participation in the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting held in Riyadh.

"It now lies solely in Hamas' hands, to see that the hostages are finally freed," Baerbock said.

Although the precise details of the latest deal have not been made public, the proposal is understood to involve a pause in Israeli military operations in exchange for some of the remaining hostages.

Hamas has said it requires time to consider the offer. AFP quoted an unnamed Hamas source on Tuesday as saying the group wanted to reach a decision "as quickly as possible." Baerbock responded sceptically. "We've experienced this repeatedly in recent months," she said. "The Hamas terrorist organisation is still pursuing the same objective of continually attacking Israel and prolonging this awful war." 

Egypt's state-run Al Qahera TV reported late on Monday that Hamas would return again with a written response to the latest Israeli proposal passed to them by mediators from Qatar and Egypt. Israeli news media reported that Israel will not be sending a delegation to Cairo for ceasefire talks until it has a reply from Hamas on the latest proposal.

However, at a meeting of hostages' relatives, Netanyahu said he would invade Rafah "with or without" a deal.

His comments follow renewed warnings by the US against a Rafah invasion unless civilians were properly protected.

In a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday, US President Joe Biden "reiterated his clear position" on Rafah, a White House statement said.

More than half of Gaza's 2.5m population is in Rafah, having fled there to escape fighting in other parts of the territory.

Israeli sources told the Reuters on Monday that plans to attack Rafah would be shelved in favour of a "sustained period of calm" if a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israeli was reached.

Days earlier, Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Israeli Channel 12 television that "if there will be a deal, we will suspend the [Rafah] operation".

But on Tuesday the prime minister insisted that the war would continue until Israel had achieved all of its objectives in Rafah.

"The idea that we will halt the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question," ...-"We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there with or without a deal, in order to achieve total victory,"

Indirect talks have been at an impasse for weeks, although the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said on Monday that he hoped Hamas would accept what he has called Israel's "extraordinarily generous offer" for a truce.

According to Israeli media outlets, the government is concerned that reports that the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague is about to issue warrants for the arrest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, before the end of the week. I’ll hazard a guess and say - “It won’t happen!”

Netanyahu commented on a possible arrest warrant on Friday, April 26, "Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defence."

An editorial in the Jerusalem Post this week juxtaposed two unenviable options. “The case for a full-scale military operation into Rafah to dismantle Hamas is compelling. Proponents argue that only by decisively eliminating the threat of Hamas can Israel secure its long-term security and deter future aggression. This approach promises a clear end to the current threat but comes with a high potential cost—significant loss of life and continued instability in the region. Conversely, the argument for negotiation underscores the immediate need to cease the suffering of our citizens. This pragmatic approach seeks a resolution that could potentially save lives by preventing further military escalation and would allow for the quick return of our hostages. Such negotiations could also pave the way for a more stable future, setting the stage for longer-term peace processes. Yet, this is not merely a strategic decision; it carries profound moral implications. As a nation committed to the sanctity of life, can we justify a prolonged military engagement with the likelihood of substantial casualties on both sides? Or is our moral imperative to prioritise the immediate rescue of our hostages, potentially at the expense of broader security concerns and justice?”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday he had still not seen a plan for Israel's promised offensive on Rafah that would protect civilians, repeating that Washington could not support such an assault.

Blinken and Netanyahu met in Jerusalem for 2-1/2 hours on Wednesday, after which Israel repeated that the Rafah operation would go ahead despite the U.S. position and a U.N. warning that it would lead to "tragedy."

I’ll conclude  by saying  “Yet to be concluded and hoping for the best.”

Have a good weekend.

Beni,

2nd of May, 2024.

 

 

“All’s Well That Ends Well.”

 

On the 4th of April 1966 I celebrated the Pesach/Passover Seder at Ein Harod. Earlier in the day I watched the “Cutting of the Omer” ceremony in a field near the kibbutz. Both events have become an integral part of my personal ‘Israeli cultural psyche.’

Our communal Pesach Seder this year included a few innovations, one in particular deserves mention. Chad Gadya or Had Gadya "one little goat, or "one kid” is a playful cumulative song  in Aramaic and Hebrew. It is sung at the end of the Passover Seder.  The melody is thought to have been adopted from  a Mediaeval German folk song.  It first appeared in a Haggadah printed in Prague in 1590, which makes it the most recent inclusion in the traditional Passover Seder liturgy.

This year the song was sung and dramatised on stage in the kibbutz dining room by an enthusiastic group of adults and children replete with appropriate character-part costumes. It was an instant ‘hit’ and received standing ovations.

Had Gadya has inspired graphic artists too.

An exhibition of works by artist Frank Stella just opened at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles. Stella is not Jewish, but a number of his works have Jewish themes — including his colourful illustrations of “Had Gadya.”  Stella’s work is featured along with his inspiration: the artwork from a Yiddish picture book illustrated by the Russian avant-garde artist El Lissitzky. 

Stella made his own images after seeing Lissitzky’s 11 “Had Gadya” lithographs at the Tel Aviv Museum in 1981. Lissitzky’s pictures, published in 1919, are highly stylised, incorporating elements of Russian folk art as well as cubism, futurism and constructivism. Yet Lissitzky’s images are still recognisable depictions of the kid, cat, dog and other characters from the “Had Gadya” story.

Not wanting to spoil the festive atmosphere I hesitated before including the next news item. 

 A report in Deutsche Welle (DW) revealed how an Israeli army battalion, ‘Netzah Yehuda,’ may, among other things, be excluded from receiving US financial support. The US has never imposed sanctions on the IDF before.

Numerous media outlets are reporting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to announce sanctions against a battalion of the IDF. Netzah Yehuda has been accused of human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and an expert on the Israel-Palestinian conflict at King’s College, London, said -  “The Israelis will fight hard to try and prevent it”.

He noted, however, that even though the Netzah Yehuda is an integral part of the IDF, it is “a unit every army should be ashamed of.”

“My fellow Israelis will hate me saying it but Netzah Yehuda is a sort of an Israeli-style  Wagner Group." Bregman added.

The Netzah Yehuda Battalion went too far on 12 January 2022 when 78-year-old Omar Assad was detained by Netzah Yehuda soldiers and died of a heart attack. His body was later found abandoned at a building site. The problem was that Assad had dual Palestinian-American citizenship – and the US opened up a criminal investigation into the matter.

Israel dismissed two officers over the incident and reprimanded the battalion commander but never opened a criminal investigation. According to prosecutors, there was no link between the errors made by the unit’s soldiers and Assad’s death.

At the end of 2022, the unit was redeployed to the Golan Heights  and later to Gaza .

The threatened US sanction would thus conclude the investigation into Assad’s death.

According to the Associated Press news agency, the US has been investigating five army units for serious human rights violations. These sanctions, however, would only apply to this unit, imposing two restrictions: Firstly, no US military aid would go to Netzah Yehuda; secondly, its participation in training programmes financed by the US would be limited. The Israeli government has already declared that it will oppose the sanctions.

The Netzah Yehuda battalion was established in the late 1990s as a special religious unit, with specific conditions to facilitate military service for ultra-orthodox Jews (Haredim). The men are given time for prayer and religious studies and contact with female soldiers is very limited.

Both Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz held separate talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken late Sunday as they sought to dissuade Washington from going ahead with reported plans to slap sanctions on an Israeli military unit with a problematic rights record, Israeli officials said.

State Department readouts on the calls made no mention of the Israeli concerns, using vague language to portray the talks as the latest in a series of conversations on Gaza and other challenges.

The Axios news site reported  Saturday that following months of deliberations by an internal panel, the US State Department intended to sanction the battalion. The IDF said  it is unaware of such plans.

Two US sources told the Times of Israel on Sunday that Washington is mulling additional sanctions against other Israeli police and military units.

Netzah Yehuda, a Kfir infantry brigade unit set up specifically for religious troops, but which also attracts settler extremists, has been repeatedly embroiled in allegations of abuses against Palestinians.

What came next was a dramatic change of mind.

The United States has opted not to impose sanctions on IDF Netzah Yehuda Battalion, Ynet reported on Wednesday afternoon, citing sources from within Israel.

The decision comes after intense pressure from various segments of the Israeli political spectrum. 

Arutz Sheva Israel National News reported that Israel is cautiously predicting that the US has stopped, at least for now, its intention to impose unprecedented sanctions on the IDF's Netzah Yehuda Battalion.

Itamar Eichner Ynet also reported that Israeli officials are cautiously predicting that the US won’t impose sanctions.

Israel made it clear in talks with the Americans that the state would cooperate and show them that the problematic incidents were resolved.

A moment after I sent last week’s ‘newsletter’ Israel is reported to have launched a drone strike against Iran. The same source claims Israeli officials notified their US counterparts in Washington: an attack was in the works, they said, and without sharing specifics, indicated it would be carried out in the next several days.

It was exactly the message the Biden administration had hoped they wouldn’t receive. Throughout the week, US officials had urged Israel not to retaliate for Iran’s unprecedented attack  five days prior, when hundreds of missiles and drones were fired from inside Iran at Israel.

US officials worried that any Israeli counter-strike could trigger an escalating cycle of direct action between the two nations that could spiral out of control.

“We didn’t endorse Israel’s response a senior official said

The back-and-forth attacks of the past week have left US officials concerned that a barrier that once existed between Israel and Iran has now been breached, leading to a new form of direct confrontation that could be infinitely more volatile and difficult to predict.

How Iran responds will now be a crucial test of whether the two nations have entered the opening stages of direct conflict — or whether both sides can step back from the brink.

There are some signs that the situation may be defusing.

US intelligence has long assessed that neither Iran nor Israel has any appetite for an outright war. Israel’s retaliatory strike appears to have been designed to be limited, striking a single military base about 275 miles from Tehran and leaving untouched two nearby facilities that are an important part of Iran’s nuclear development programme.

A regional intelligence source with knowledge of Iran’s reaction to the attack said that the direct state to state strikes between the two countries were “over.” Iran was not expected to respond.

There’s more good news. The $26 billion US financial aid package to Israel is due to arrive soon.

 

“All’s Well That Ends Well.”

 

Beni,

 

 25th of April, 2024.

 

Over the weekend.

 

I was wrong! My gut-feeling was that Iran would be content with seizing an Israeli-linked container ship in the Gulf of Oman in lieu of a direct reprisal for the attack on Iran’s consular building in Damascus on April 1.

Richard Haass, one of America’s leading foreign policy strategists, believes Tehran’s weekend attack has thrown Israel “the lifeline of lifelines.” It seems that for the time being, at least, Israel is no longer regarded as a pariah state.

Like many Americans, Richard Haass is still trying to understand why Iran decided to attack Israel directly with a barrage of hundreds of missiles and UAVs, most of which were intercepted. Haass believes Iran has miscalculated and will come to regret its decision to shift from its longtime strategy of using proxy forces to attack Israel. Instead, Iran chose to target mainly Israel’s urban centres. Consequently, the Iranian attack has evoked empathy and support for Israel.

Middle East analyst and US foreign policy expert Aaron David Miller said in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) -

“Israel cannot allow this to go unchallenged, but all-out war is not inevitable.

Israeli retaliation against Iran is likely at some point but it will have to be carefully choreographed so as not to spark a major regional war which wouldn't be in Israel's interests.

Even though the Iranian strikes caused very little damage, a new precedent was set, a new threshold was crossed, new rules were established.”

Miller, a former advisor to both Republican and Democratic US secretaries of state, said the precise timing, nature and scale of an Israeli counterstrike is "impossible to predict," but suggested it would be aimed at "conventional military facilities."

According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California and an expert on Iran’s military, Iran has one of the largest ballistic missiles and UAV arsenals in the Middle East.

It includes cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km.

According to U.S. estimates, Iran has over 3,000 heavy ballistic missiles like those launched against Israel, and has significantly improved their accuracy over the past decade.

Iran has at least nine types of missiles able to travel the 1,000-kilometre distance to Israel at a speed of 3 kilometres per second; The IDF's multilayered aerial defences have the proven ability to respond but no defence system is foolproof.

The Iranians don’t hide these weapons, they proudly display them during annual military parades. The country also hopes to turn the production of UAVs into a major export business. Currently, Iran's UAVs are being used by Russia in the war in Ukraine and have also seen action in Sudan.

I want to add a brief margin note here – The poor performance of Iran’s missiles and UAVs last weekend certainly won’t help promote its UAV sales.

The usually reliable Wall Street Journal quoted an unnamed source, claiming that "about half of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran were not launched properly or crashed before reaching their destination." Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles during its attack on Israel, and only about half of them were successfully intercepted. The rest failed for technical reasons.

Let’s return to the main text: -

 

Although the sale of the Arrow-3 missile defence system to Germany, (valued at approximately $3.6 billion) was concluded last November, it will likely arouse interest among other potential customers. It’s reasonable to suppose that the unprecedented success of Israeli air defence systems during the Iranian offensive last weekend will help to promote additional sales.

The operation involved the air defence forces of the US, the UK, France, and Jordan. The bulk of the interceptions were carried out by Israel's multi-layered air defence system, which includes the Arrow 3 to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, Arrow 2 to intercept ballistic missiles within the atmosphere, David's Sling to intercept advanced short-and medium-range threats, and Iron Dome for short-range threats.

While the US, Britain and France are military allies of Israel, Jordan’s involvement was a dramatic show of support from Amman.

Understandably, Jordan downplayed the part it played in the multi-national defence against the Iranian offensive. Reuters quoted a Jordanian cabinet statement, casually remarking that, “Some ‘flying objects’ that entered its airspace on Saturday night were intercepted to ensure the safety of its citizens. "Some shrapnel fell in multiple places during that time without causing any significant damage or any injuries," it added.
At this juncture it’s pertinent to note that- Israel has a vested interest in propping-up the Hashemite kingdom whenever it is threatened, though not entirely for altruistic reasons. Let’s say, undeclared, but mutually beneficial motivations. 

Now regarding the timing of the Iranian offensive. A UAV (drone) flies slowly. A missile does not. Thus, Iran had to synchronise its attack, launching its larger number of UAVs hours before its faster-flying ballistic missiles. The United States has access to Iraqi air space—both for missile defence and for overflight of fighters—and Jordan has given the United States access for operations in Syria in recent years. The result is that as Iran prepared to attack, the United States could fly along its border and shoot down UAVs in large numbers. The same is true in Jordan. Thus, the UAV threat was largely negated, which allowed for Israeli and American missile defence systems to destroy operational Iranian missiles as far out as Iraq and as close in as Jordan.

Iran's massive missile attack overnight between Saturday and Sunday on Israel was stopped largely by Israel's sophisticated defence systems. It obviously costs a lot of money, and the question, among others that arises the next morning, is how much?  Brig. Gen. Reem Aminoach, former financial advisor to the IDF chief of staff, tried to estimate. "The defence tonight was on the order of more than a quarter of a billion dollars, “he said.

"If we're talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes - then add up the costs - $3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David's Sling, such and such costs for airplanes.

The US and Israel had been bracing for an attack for days after Iran said it would retaliate for the alleged Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus.  

The Pentagon said its forces intercepted “dozens of missiles” and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen that were headed toward Israel.

US military forces, operating from undisclosed bases in the region, shot down a number of Iranian drones in Sweida and Deraa provinces in southern Syria near the Jordanian border.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari confirmed on Sunday morning that France was also involved in Israel’s defence, though he said he did not have exact details on whether French jets had shot down any of the missiles launched by Iran.

US President Joe Biden said Saturday that US forces helped take down “nearly all” the drones and missiles fired by Iran at Israel.

At this stage I’m not sure which military took down what, or whether it really matters.

After reading numerous news media reports on the Iranian attack and speculations regarding its aftermath, it’s clear that the last word on this topic hasn’t been written yet. The classified material will probably be locked up for decades. In the meantime, extant material will suffice for a number of doctoral dissertations.

Maybe a little peeved at being left out of the regional military action, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent his foreign minister to conduct a bit of backdoor diplomacy.

Turkey does not want further escalation of tension in the region after Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told his Iranian counterpart in a phone call on Sunday. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Fidan that its "retaliatory operation" against Israel had ended, adding that Iran would not launch a new operation unless it was attacked.

Maybe not the last word, but a good summing-up was provided by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday. “Israel has shown that it is strong and could defend itself”. ... "Iran is isolated with its aggressive behaviour with which it wants to destabilise an entire region"... Baerbock called on Iran to forgo further attacks including via proxies as a regional escalation would have incalculable consequences.

 

As I write millions of Jews all over the world are preparing to celebrate Pesach/Passover. The oldest festival in the Hebrew calendar.

 

Chag Pesach sameach.

 

Beni

 

18th of April, 2024.

Concerned, but safe.

 In the weekly column he writes for The Guardian British journalist Jonathan Freedland said, “After six months, the war in Gaza is making Israel a pariah state.” ...

“Netanyahu’s decisions have brought death to Palestinians and harmed his own people. Hamas laid a trap and he walked right in.”

 I want to insert a margin note here: I think many, if not most Middle East affairs analysts agree that Israel is rapidly becoming a pariah state. However, I doubt if they would give Hamas credit for laying a trap for Netanyahu.

“So, what might be the lasting consequences of this six-month war? Who will emerge weaker and who stronger?” Freedland asked.

“At first glance, you might assume Hamas would be disappointed by the results of its murderous efforts on October 7.                                   Hamas’s rampage through southern Israel brought hellfire down on the people of Gaza, provoking an Israeli response that has left a staggering 2% of the population dead and displaced the rest.

Another margin note regarding the fatalities. No matter how they are counted, innocent bystanders who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, or Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists intentionally ‘terminated’ by the IDF, they will be lumped together statistically by people who don’t want to distinguish between the two categories. 

 

 That scale of destruction won’t unduly trouble Hamas leaders: the death of others is a sacrifice they are willing to make. But they will lament the losses among their own: an estimated 10,000 men, more than a third of their fighting force, along with three battalion commanders and seven members of the ruling political bureau, according to Michael Milshtein, a former senior intelligence officer, widely regarded as Israel’s foremost expert on Hamas. “Hamas has lost or used up almost all its arsenal of rockets – and, its greatest disappointment, the action failed to spark the wider regional onslaught against Israel it dreamed of. Moreover, Milshtein said, Israeli forces have to face a further challenge.

Hamas has lost about 10,000 of their 30,000 members, but this gap can be closed quickly," he said. "In Gaza there are plenty of young Palestinians that want to join Hamas.

And yet, Hamas will regard itself as anything but the loser in the six-month war. For all of Benjamin Netanyahu’s talk of the ‘total defeat’ of Hamas, it is still standing. Most of its key Gaza leaders remain alive and present; it is still ‘the prominent actor in Gaza”.

Despite all that the people of Gaza have endured, their approval of Hamas’s role in the war stands at 70%, according to the veteran Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki.

Still, the chief source of the satisfaction Hamas will be feeling, six months on from October 7, lies elsewhere – not in what’s happened to it, but rather in what’s happened to its mortal enemy: Israel.

For six months, Israel has asked for the world’s understanding, trying to explain that it faces a brutal enemy – one that hides underground, among and underneath a civilian population, and thinks nothing of firing rockets and missiles from hospitals, schools and mosques. For that reason, foreign governments have granted Israel considerable forbearance. But that has now run out. And much of it comes down to the decisions Israel took not on combat, but on aid.

  Amid the slaughter and with famine looming, Israel's allies must say enough is enough. If not now, when?

 I don’t blame the Israeli public for that. But I do blame their leaders. Even if they did nothing to address the root causes of the conflict, their job was to transcend the rage and terror of that moment, to think calmly and strategically even amid the panic. To realise in that moment that their fight was with Hamas, not the entire population of  Gaza. Instead, they have sown hatred in the hearts of a new generation, and they have made lonely a country that cannot function alone.

So, no, there are no winners in this dreadful war.” Freedland concluded.

Kobi Michael, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), wrote in a recent analysis “Hamas has also been affected by the loss of military personnel. Nevertheless, it will survive politically."

Kobi Michael is convinced Hamas is able to recover to a limited extent, albeit "without the advanced rocket capabilities displayed during this war."

Gil Murciano, CEO of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies echoed that view, saying Hamas fighters would still be able to operate in small groups using guerrilla tactics. 

"However, it is no longer functional at battalion level as only four battalions are still operational in Rafah. They may have been weakened by the IDF, but they are still functional." 

In Israel, the idea of a two-state solution has lost traction since the Oct. 7 attack, according to a number of polls conducted recently. 

The sentiment aligns with Netanyahu's longtime opposition to an independent Palestinian state, but that hasn't boosted his popularity since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

 Worrying as undoubtedly it is, our immediate concern is an Iranian reprisal attack.

Western and Arab governments are rushing to convince Iran to show restraint as the US warned allies that Tehran was close to military retaliation against Israel over an attack on its Damascus consulate. The diplomatic push on Thursday came as concerns rose in western capitals that Iran is preparing to respond directly against Israel, rather than through proxies, to avenge the assassination of several Iranian top generals last week. Washington has recently informed allies that Iran’s retaliation could be imminent as it urged them to put pressure on Tehran to hold back. A US  spokesman said a direct strike by Iran on Israel was possible, an action that would significantly escalate six months of hostilities in the region.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock phoned her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Thursday to discuss the rapidly worsening security situation. “Nobody can have any interest in regional escalation,” the German foreign ministry said in a statement issued after Baerbock’s call. “All players in the region are called upon to act responsibly and exercise restraint.”

Amirabdollahian also held phone conversations with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar on Wednesday night, with Iran’s foreign ministry saying the consequences of Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate were among the topics discussed. He also spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that the attack last week, which killed several senior Iranian commanders, was equivalent to an attack on Iranian territory, and that Israel must be “punished”. Khamenei’s language, particularly in likening the attack to a breach of Iran’s sovereignty, has raised concerns that any retaliation will potentially be directly against Israel, rather than channelled through Iran’s proxies in the region. Responding to Khamenei’s statement, US President Joe Biden stressed his “ironclad” support for Israel, pointedly saying the US would do “all we can” to protect the security of its ally. A senior US official said Iran had delivered a message to Washington after the Damascus strike. In response, Washington warned Tehran “not to use the strike as a pretext to further escalate tension in the region or attack US facilities or personnel”. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on the Iranian consulate, which was widely seen as the most serious blow to the Iranian military since the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. However, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have all blamed Israel, and Iranian officials have repeatedly said there will be a response.

Israeli security analysts have said an Iranian attack could range from a strike via one of Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, to a direct attack on Israel from Iran itself, which could risk an escalation of the regional conflict. An Iranian official said last week that Israeli embassies were “no longer safe”, sparking speculation that they could be a potential target. Amid concerns of a broader conflict, the German airline Lufthansa, one of the few international carriers flying to Tehran, suspended flights to the Iranian capital.

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq called Iran’s foreign minister and discussed regional tensions.

According to an anonymous source the Arab foreign ministers spoke to their Iranian counterpart after they received calls from Brett McGurk, National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa. McGurk asked them to convey a message to Iran of the need to de-escalate the situation.

That being said, I sleep soundly at night placing my trust in our defence and security forces.

 

Stay safe.

 

Beni,

11th of April, 2024

Mostly good news.

 

Earlier this week I had singled out one item for this week’s blog – The Haredi conscription exemption law crisis.

Young men studying in yeshivas (yeshivot/religious seminaries) have since the founding of the State of Israel been exempt from mandatory military service –But, the exemption has never been enshrined in a law that the Supreme Court views as equitable, and for years has been carried out by patchwork government mandates. Last week the prime minister tried to delay the Supreme Court’s deadline to pass a law that would make the exemption official.

After decades of rulings on the subject, the Supreme Court told the government that it was illegal to both fund yeshivas and exempt their students from conscription. In a recent ruling, the Supreme Court said that as of April 1, the government could no longer transfer funds to yeshivas whose students did not receive legitimate deferments.

The conscription law crisis is intensifying as the Attorney General, Gali Baharav Miara, opposes postponing the government's appeal to the High Court regarding the Haredi conscription exemption law drafted by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

At this point, the government is considering delaying the decision without Miara's support. Time was running out: the request had to be submitted to the High Court by midnight, 31st of March. If I’m not mistaken the government requested an extension. If so, the judges will likely reject it. Otherwise, as of April 1, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will begin conscripting Haredi young men. In addition, the government will have to cut yeshivot funding.

The question of conscripting Haredi men has been one of the most burning issues in Israeli politics for years and could put an end to the existing coalition government. Netanyahu has avoided advancing legislation on this matter, knowing that such a polarising move could bring down his government. Maybe this time he has come to the end of his tether. In the meantime, other matters have engaged our attention.

On Monday night six missiles fired from an Israeli F-35 combat aircraft hit and destroyed a building belonging to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. At the time, a meeting between high-ranking members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was being held in the building. The attack resulted in the death of two IRGC generals: Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was the leader of the Quds force- the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon – and his deputy, Sardar Haji Rahimi. Five other IRGC officers were killed in the operation.

Understandably, Iran was furious and condemned the attack claiming it was a gross violation of diplomatic immunity.

An Israeli spokesman said the building targeted was used as an Iranian military base and therefore is not protected by diplomatic immunity status.

New York Times correspondent Amanda Taub opined, “For centuries, diplomatic premises have been afforded special protections. Diplomats get immunity from prosecution in their host country, and embassy buildings are often viewed as a sanctuary for their nation’s citizens — they cannot be entered by the host country’s police without the permission of diplomatic staff, and often become refuges for expatriates in times of war.

So, attacks on diplomatic compounds carry particular weight, both in law and in the popular imagination. But in this case, experts say, Israel can likely argue that its actions did not violate international law’s protections for diplomatic missions. Namely, because Israel maintains that the building targeted was used as an Iranian military base.”

 I doubt if anyone is digging in the rubble at the site to verify the building’s function. Anyway, once Israeli intelligence personnel knew about the meeting taking place in the embassy compound, they were loath to miss a golden opportunity to ‘take out’ the villains.

Apparently, Israel was managing quite well. Then, a report in Deutsche Welle (DW) told how the US, Germany and other countries are seeking answers after an airstrike in Gaza killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers. IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi said the strike that killed the World Central Kitchen (WCK) workers in Gaza was a "grave mistake."

"It was a mistake that followed a misidentification, at night, during a war, in very complex conditions. It shouldn't have happened," Halevi said during a video recorded statement released on Wednesday.

The military chief made the comments after having been presented with the initial findings of a preliminary investigation that was initiated after the deadly strike.

Halevi said the Israeli military will "continue taking immediate action to ensure more is done to protect humanitarian aid workers."

"Israel is at war with Hamas, not with the people of Gaza. We are sorry for the unintentional harm to the members of WCK," Halevi said. His investigation is a top priority and needs to cut through the usual procedural stages in order to determine what happened.

I’ll hazard a guess and say that anti-Israel demonstrators everywhere will exploit the WCK tragic incident.

 

Take care.

Beni,

4th of April, 2024.