What Iran decides to do next.

 I’ve decided not to comment on the results of the U.S presidential elections.        In my humble opinion they have no immediate impact on whether or not Iran will retaliate for Israel’s October 26 retaliatory attack targeting  military sites and air defence systems tied to the country’s energy and

petrochemical industries.

In an op-ed he wrote for the National Post Andrew Richter said “The world waits as Iran decides what to do next. So far, cooler heads have prevailed on both sides

With the attack, the ball is now back in Iran’s court. Tehran has to decide whether to respond (again) and begin a new wave of escalatory strikes, or to let the current crisis pass.

The signs so far have been mixed. On the positive side, official Iranian state media was quick to downplay the strikes, even going so far as to claim they were limited and caused ‘little damage.’ But since then, the regime’s language has grown steadily more threatening, first, claiming Iran had a ‘duty’ to respond, and most recently suggesting that there will be ‘bitter, unimaginable consequences’ for Israel. These seemingly contradictory responses to the severity of Israel’s attack may suggest a divided government, pulled in opposing directions by competing factions.

For its part, Israel clearly thought long and hard about the targets it hit, and almost certainly adjusted them after its initial plans were leaked to an Iranian web site. It made sure not to directly strike oil or nuclear facilities, as both constitute ‘red lines’ which Iran would have felt obligated to respond to. Rather, the targets were carefully selected in order not to force Tehran’s hand.

Other factors will, no doubt, influence Iran’s decision. Perhaps most critically, the Iranian economy is in terrible shape, and can ill afford a full-scale war with a richer, more technologically-advanced foe. And Iranian military officials are certainly aware that Israel’s military is the most powerful in the region.

Furthermore, Iranian officials also know that outside of their ballistic missiles — which thus far have been largely unable to get past Israel’s defence systems — Tehran has no weapons that can hurt Israel. Its Air Force, as but one example, is barely functional, and would prove no match for the Israelis. Thus, it would enter any larger conflict with Jerusalem from a position of weakness.

However, at the same time, Israel must consider some factors that should give it pause as well. Most obviously, its military is no doubt fatigued after operating at a high tempo for over a year in Gaza and for the past several months in Lebanon. Israel’s army has had to be reinforced by civilian reservists, and these men are likely tired of the endless fighting and are looking forward to returning to their normal lives.

And while Israel does not comment on its weapons supplies and stockpiles, many analysts have started to ask difficult questions about whether its running low on munitions, including the anti-missile systems upon which the Iron Dome depends. While Israel produces some of its weapons domestically, it relies on Washington for the vast bulk of its arsenal, and many have even wondered about weapons supplies in the U.S. So, Israel has its own reasons for wanting to avoid a full-scale war.

All that said, I expect Iran will retaliate, and, once again, the odds of a larger war will be heavily reliant on chance.”

Local politics have gained considerable mention more recently.

Verbal clashes between Netanyahu and Gallant are not new.

Admittedly, the relationship between both men was rarely cordial and often caustic. There was little love lost between them – over the state of negotiations with Hamas, Israel’s military strategy and Netanyahu’s bid to bring in a sweeping overhaul of the judiciary in 2023.

Netanyahu and Gallant have often disagreed over the war in Gaza. In August, Gallant told a closed-door Knesset committee that Netanyahu’s goal of “absolute victory” in Gaza was “nonsense,” according to Israeli news media. Netanyahu then took the extraordinary step of releasing a press statement accusing Gallant of adopting an “anti-Israel narrative.”

Gallant was also highly critical of Netanyahu’s emphasis on controlling the Philadelphi Corridor. He said that prioritising its control over a ceasefire and hostage deal was a “moral disgrace.” In the cabinet, he voted against continued occupation there. “If we want the hostages alive, we don’t have time,” he said.

But it may be domestic politics that ultimately played the biggest role.

Netanyahu on Tuesday was forced to withdraw draft legislation that would have allowed ultra-Orthodox Israelis (Haredim) to get government subsidies for daycare even if the father of the children does not serve in the IDF, as all other Jewish Israelis are obligated to do. Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties to govern, and they have threatened to upend his coalition if they are forced to serve in the military en masse.

Gallant had been outspoken against the idea that ultra-Orthodox Israelis be exempt from service, saying that “the security system under my leadership will not submit it to legislation.”

Gideon Sa’ar, whom Netanyahu has tapped for foreign minister, is thought to be an influential interlocutor to the ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu, in his statement, said that Sa’ar’s appointment “will enhance the stability of the coalition and the stability of the government, and these are very important at any time, but especially in wartime.”

 Safe and sound in my locale I can’t claim to know how people in other places (apart from my own family, of course) feel.

 

 

Take care.

 

Beni,

7th of November, 2024

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The Stopover.

 A few years before the Iranian revolution deposed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, my wife and I spent a few days in Tehran. We were en route to Melbourne, Australia where I was due to work as a youth movement emissary.

We were shown around the city by a relative who worked in Tehran. At that time Israel had vested commercial interests in Iran.

During our brief stopover as tourists, we saw what appeared to be an open modern society.

Early on Saturday just before dawn our airforce also had a brief stopover in Iran.

The Times of Israel quoting other news outlets said, “Israeli officials aren’t speaking much about the airstrikes in Iran carried out on early Saturday morning, but that doesn’t detract from the significance of the operation.

It seems to have gone off exactly as planned, with no aircraft or crews lost in action. That in and of itself is a major accomplishment.

Among the flight crews included in the mission were four women navigators.

The risks inherent in operations 1,600 kilometres from Israeli airspace are daunting. A minor complication can turn into a life-and-death challenge.

The strikes were planned with the assumption that the fighter jets would be able to refuel near Iran” ...” Israel was able to get dozens of planes close enough to Iran to launch precision munitions at military targets in several waves.

In the first phase of the attack, Israeli jets targeted air defence systems in Syria and Iraq, preventing Tehran’s allies from intercepting the aircraft en route to attack predetermined sites in Iran.

The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.

Israel confirmed it had struck numerous military sites during the retaliatory operation later named "Days of Repentance."

The operation appears to have been aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to attack Israel, as well as making the country more vulnerable to future airstrikes.

An IDF spokesman said the attack focused on air defence, radar sites, and long-range missile production facilities and involved more than 100 jets and drones.

Citing three Israeli and three Iranian officials, the New York Times said Iranian air defence systems were also attacked, with the aim of limiting Iran’s ability to fend off future attacks. Some of the targeted systems are supposed to protect important sites including the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, the Tange Bijar gasfield, and the Bandar port in the south of the country.

Three Russian-made S-300 air defence systems around Tehran were also reportedly hit, as well as the Parchin and Parand military bases.

Later, early Saturday morning the IDF verified that it had completed its reactive operation against Iran.

The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been accomplished, with all planes returning unscathed to their bases.

I’m adding a margin note for the purpose of comparing the hazards of airforce combat operations during WW2 to the Israeli Airforce’s flawless attack on Saturday.

During World War 2 the Americans suffered a combined total of over 27,000 killed in action and another 9,000 wounded in action. RAF crews also suffered severely, with over 55,000 men killed and approximately 18,000 wounded.

The Americans lost over 6,000 bombers and fighter planes. The RAF lost 8,325 aircraft during the war. 

The US Army Air Forces (USAAF) and the Royal Air Force (RAF) caused terrible damage to life and property in Germany. The Combined Bomber Offensive lay waste to German cities, killing over 305,000, wounding another 780,000, and rendering 7,500,000 homeless.

Returning to the main text; -

“Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran. 

There were reports of widespread internet outages across Iran as the attacks continued.

 Israel’s attacks on Iran early Saturday destroyed air-defence systems set up to protect several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, as well as systems guarding a large gas field and a major port in southern Iran, according to three Iranian officials and three senior Israeli defence officials.

The Iranian and Israeli officials familiar with the attacks spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.

Israel’s destruction of the air-defence systems has raised deep alarm in Iran, the three Iranian officials said, as critical energy and economic hubs are now vulnerable to future attacks if the cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel continues.

 An article posted in Deutsche Welle provided an interesting assessment of Iranian public fears.

“In the wake of Israel's military strikes on Iranian targets early on Saturday, many people in Iran are turning to social media to voice their frustrations and try to understand what's happening. 

Israel hit military targets in Iran with predawn airstrikes in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic fired on Israel earlier in October.

As Iran is already in economic turmoil, with the national currency collapsing and inflation soaring, many Iranians are increasingly questioning the government's priorities, feeling the weight of a regime that appears more focused on foreign conflicts than addressing the dire needs at home.

Should tensions escalate on the military front, this disconnect between official narratives and public sentiment could have far-reaching implications for Iran's internal stability. 

The Iranian local currency, the rial, plummeted to unprecedented lows against the dollar earlier this week and the inflation rate has surged by 33% over the past year, according to official figures.

Meanwhile, investors are rapidly seeking to liquidate their assets on the Tehran Stock Exchange, leading to a halt in major transactions as many await the outcomes of these conflicts.

Markets are bracing for further increases, should hostilities with Israel intensify, and prices are expected to surge sharply.

Many Iranians are increasingly linking their country's economic collapse to the government's financial support of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Citizens express frustration over resources being allocated to foreign conflicts while domestic needs go unmet. As everyday life becomes increasingly untenable due to rising prices and inflation, there is a growing sentiment that government priorities are misplaced, fuelling public anger and calls for accountability.

"Even if the war does not escalate, the decline of the rial against the dollar will continue," said Alireza Salavati, a London-based economic analyst. "Additionally, the price of gold is also expected to rise. These issues are linked to the growth of liquidity, sanctions, and the psychological impact of the Iran-Israel conflict."

Iran is "one of the world's most repressive countries in terms of press freedom," according to Reporters without Borders.

The tight censorship was visible in the direct aftermath of the Israeli strikes, with Iranian state media initially remaining silent on the attacks.

This was in sharp contrast to the dynamic social media activity within the country, where people used VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to circumvent online restrictions to share videos of bright lights in the sky and loud noises on platforms like Telegram and X.

At the same time, accounts linked to Iran's intelligence and security apparatus warned on social media that sharing images with foreign media could be deemed espionage.

Eventually, some official Iranian news sources conceded that an attack had taken place but claimed that Iranian defences had successfully intercepted the strikes.

State-aligned media and social channels have continued to downplay the severity of the attack. Telegram channels associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, for example, shared images on Saturday morning of crowded squares in Tehran's centre, insisting that nothing significant had occurred.

Several government-affiliated journalists also broadcast from busy public areas in Tehran, on Saturday, asserting that life was continuing as normal.

"The media dare not write anything other than the official stance. Journalists have been prohibited from posting on their personal social media pages."

As Iranians usually do in a volatile situation, they seek information through Persian-language media based outside the country.

In Lebanon we might be on the verge of an effective ceasefire. In Gaza there’s a vague possibility of achieving a partial hostage release.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

31st of October, 2024.

 

 

Taking cover.

 

Twice this week I have had to take cover during an air-raid. Missile and drone attacks mainly from Lebanon caused me to ’wait it out’ in the safest place in my house, the computer room. Admittedly, I wouldn’t survive a direct hit on the house, but I’m safe there from blasts and shrapnel. Alternatively, I could rush down to the nearest air raid shelter. Reconsidering my options, I’m safer in my computer cubbyhole. There are numerous reports of Israelis injured, tripping and falling while trying to get to an air raid shelter. They tend to ignore the IDF’s Home Front Command’s specific instructions regarding where and how to take cover during an air raid. I hasten to add that air raids are a rare occurrence in our area. Nevertheless, family and friends called to make sure I was okay.

My attention this week has been focused on efforts to strike Hezbollah’s financial resources.

A BBC correspondent reported that the IDF is targeting money held by the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association (AQAH). It offers financial services to civilians in areas where Hezbollah has strong support, but Israel and the US accuse it of being a cover for the Iran-backed group to fund its terror activities.

AQAH is a key part of Hezbollah’s social services network. Before the Israeli strikes, it had more than 30 branches, often located on the ground floor of residential buildings.

Many people came to depend on AQAH after Lebanon sank into a deep economic crisis five years ago, causing the local currency to lose 90% of its value and commercial banks to restrict foreign currency withdrawals. AQAH allowed people to take out small, interest-free loans in dollars backed by gold or a guarantor, and to open savings accounts.

 The report aroused a certain déjà vu. Two weeks into the Gaza war, the Israel Money Laundering and Terror Financing Prohibition Authority (IMPA) received secret intelligence information from two European countries that warned: "A large, well-known organisation is raising funds for Hamas through posts on social networks, and fintech company platforms outside Israel, under the guise of donations to Gaza residents." The information included the name of the organisation, its fundraising methods, and the identity of the entities behind it. Their concern was that, within days, the millions of dollars raised would go directly to Hamas. In a swift joint international action, at IMPA’s request, one of the European countries blocked the organisation’s money pipeline by immediately freezing its financial activities.

About three years ago the Saudi state-owned international Arabic news television channel Al Arabiya published an exposé on Hezbollah’s illicit activities. In late 2016, a high-placed Hezbollah operative named Nasser Abbas Bahmad came to what is known as the Tri-Border Area (TBA), where the frontiers of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. His mission was to establish a supply line of multi-ton shipments of cocaine from Latin America to overseas markets in order to generate funds for Hezbollah.

Investigative pieces soon followed in the Argentinian and Paraguayan press. As a result, Bahmad and his business partner, Australian-Lebanese national Hanan Hamdan, were put on a US watchlist.

Over recent decades, Hezbollah has built a well-oiled, multibillion-dollar money-laundering and drug-trafficking machine in Latin America that cleans organised crime’s ill-gotten gains through multiple waypoints in the Western hemisphere, West Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.

  A piece in The Guardian stated that Israel has accused Hezbollah of keeping hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and gold in a bunker under a hospital in the Dahiyeh quarter of Beirut, though it said it would not strike the complex.

The Sahel hospital’s director, denied the allegations.  Nevertheless, he decided to evacuate the hospital.

During a stopover in Rome, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that he had not seen evidence that there was a Hezbollah bunker filled with cash built under a hospital in Beirut, adding that Washington would continue to work with Israel to get better insights.

In a televised statement on Monday, the IDF's chief spokesman said Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, killed by Israel last month, had built the bunker which was designed for lengthy stays.

Israel did not provide evidence for its claim that cash was being kept under the hospital. Instead, it published an animated graphic that purported to show a bunker under the hospital and said it had previously been used to hide the former secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

 

I want to add a margin note here – For obvious reasons the IDF often refrains from divulging its sources of information.

 

This week the IDF launched extensive attacks on Hezbollah's financing pipeline with an emphasis on Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which helps to finance Hezbollah’s terror activities.

Many economic affairs observers in Israel agree that the attacks were justified and perhaps should have been undertaken earlier. An opposing opinion was voiced by Dr. Udi Levy, the former head of the Mossad's Economic Warfare Division and today a Senior Researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He insists that there will be no immediate economic damage to Hezbollah.

Levy explains. "The money hasn't been there for a long time. Hezbollah withdrew the money and assets and transferred them through underground channels. So, the money has probably not been harmed." However, the damage according to Levy is found among other things in the message that the attack conveys. The message is, "We will damage your softest underbelly - the money." Without it, a resurrected Hezbollah is ‘not in the cards’."

Levy also points to additional damage that has been done. "The critical point from Hezbollah’s point of view is that the IDF attack is expected to cause panic among the Shia population, whose assets were deposited in Al-Qard Al-Hassan. People can now be expected to demand the withdrawal of their funds, and this may result in severe damage to Hezbollah, which is already in dire straits."

 At the risk of repetition, I’ll add a few more details about Al-Qard Al-Hassan (AQAH).  It’s not a bank in the classic sense of the word. It was founded in 1982 by Hezbollah as a financial enterprise. It offers customers three different types of accounts, and even gives interest-free loans, in exchange for collateral (such as gold). However, for 17 years the bank has been subject to US sanctions, which prevent direct access to the global banking system.

These sanctions have not prevented the bank from prospering. According to the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD), the volume of loans extended by Al-Qard Al-Hassan grew from $76.5 million in 2007 to $480 million in 2019. The total activity of the banking association until 2019 is estimated at about $3.5 billion. According to estimates by Israel's Ministry of Defence, Hezbollah stored hundreds of millions of dollars in some 31 Al-Qard Al-Hassan branches.

I’ll conclude with a comment or two on how US investigators are trying to find out how a pair of highly classified intelligence documents were leaked online.

The documents, which appeared on the messaging app Telegram last Friday, contain an alleged US assessment of Israeli plans to attack Iran.

There has been considerable speculation regarding the motives of the person or persons who leaked the documents. Some observers claim that their purpose was to embarrass Biden and Harris, while others believe the leaks are related to Israel’s anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran.

Recently, Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant caused even more speculation when he promised that Iran will be hit hard in places it least expects.

Some social media posts in recent days singled out a US Defense Department employee as supposedly being under investigation for the leak, but offered no evidence.

Speaking to reporters in Rome, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there were no indications any employees from the Office of the Secretary of Defense were being probed for the leak.

 

Take care,

 

Beni,

24th of October, 2024.

 

 

 

Remarks of an interested observer.

 Paging through a number of international news outlets concerning the dilemma Israel and Iran are facing, I have summarised what I consider to be the most relevant topics.

I hasten to add that I am no more than an interested observer using open-source information.

Israel is threatening to retaliate for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on October 1. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites? Can it?

Israel sees Iran as an existential threat to its existence, and for good reason. Iran's clerical leaders have repeatedly threatened to annihilate Israel.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.

IAEA’s Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, said earlier this year that Iran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make "several" nuclear bombs if it wanted to do so.

Still, on Monday, CIA Director Bill Burns said that while it was clear that Iran has developed the "means of delivery" for a potential nuclear weapon by building up its missile arsenal, "we do not see evidence today that the supreme leader has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponisation programme."

Iran, in other words, according to Burns, may have technically halted its explicit work on nuclear weapons in 2003, but it has continued to acquire nuclear technology and expertise that is a requirement for any such programme.

Various reports have circulated as to what Israel might target. Among the options: Iran's military bases, its oil and economic infrastructure, key leaders in the Iranian regime and, perhaps the riskiest of all, nuclear sites.

Still, Israel’s killing Sept. 27 of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by heavy bombing may be "proof of concept" for Israel to target Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities, according to a former Air Force intelligence officer.

Israel dropped a series of what are believed to have been 2,000-pound bombs on Nasrallah’s bunker in Beirut’s Dahiya neighbourhood. By hitting the same target repeatedly, the Israeli air force succeeded in destroying Nasrallah’s bunker.

It’s a tactic that might work on Iran’s nuclear facilities, hidden deep in mountainous desert areas.

I am inclined to discard the speculation, albeit well-reasoned and stay with an emphatic statement made by Defence Minister Yoav Gallant recently.

“Israel’s strike on Iran will be lethal, precise and especially surprising.

It won’t understand what happened to it, or how.” The statement was made during a visit to IDF Intelligence Unit 9900 — a unit that gathers intelligence in theatres of war. Gallant added, “On the other hand, Iran’s strike last week was aggressive, but it failed because it was inaccurate.”

Destroying those buried facilities would be extremely challenging," said Scott Murray, a retired Air Force colonel with extensive experience targeting U.S. adversaries in the Middle East.

Hypothetically speaking, if tasked with the job, the U.S. Air Force would likely rely on one of its largest conventional weapons to destroy such a site. The GBU-57, or "Massive Ordnance Penetrator," is a 30,000-pound bomb encased in steel that allows it to burrow deep into the earth before exploding.

Israel, as it did to kill Nasrallah in Beirut, would have to rely on a series of smaller bombs striking the same spot.  However, the difference is that Israeli pilots would face surface-to-air missile defences in Iran.

“It will be ten times more difficult,” he said.

Margin note:- Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear  sites are far too  many and too widely dispersed for that option to be seriously considered.

Some analysts say Israel is most likely to respond to Iran's Oct. 1 attack by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in the attack. It could also seek to destroy Iranian air defence systems and missile-launching facilities.

If Israel does decide to go after Iran's nuclear facilities, which many experts on Iran and current and former officials see as unlikely, it could have impacts that go beyond military ones.

"In the process, Israel risks causing nuclear contamination as some of these facilities are close to population centres," said Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at Crisis Group, a Brussels-headquartered think tank. "It also exposes itself to an Iranian attack on Dimona, which could cause an environmental disaster in Israel."

Dimona is an Israeli nuclear installation located in the Negev.

Vaez said that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear programme would also be "bound to push Iran to withdraw" from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970, and "dash toward the ultimate deterrent given that its conventional and regional deterrence have clearly proven insufficient to protect its homeland."

Iran has threatened to escalate its attacks against Israel if it comes under attack and it has characterised its nuclear and energy facilities as "red lines," without elaborating.

In fact, according to a 2022 week-long simulation involving 30 leading Iran and Middle East experts, any attempt by Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, regardless of whether it is deemed successful, unsuccessful or even partially successful would only serve as a catalyst to further nuclear proliferation by Iran. It would also likely, according to Wikistrat, the Israel-based security and global risks consultancy that hosted the simulation, spur Iran's regional competitor Saudi Arabia to accelerate its nuclear programme and see Russia and China further drawn into the region to take a more active role in Iran's defence by supplying it with advanced defensive capabilities.

Oren Kesler, Wikistrat's CEO, said he did not think Israel would target Iran's nuclear facilities because hitting them with bombs, no matter how powerful, would not be sufficient to dismantle them. He said any bombing campaign would need to be supplemented with ground operations by special forces and this would require Israel to "reallocate its military power" from other areas such as Lebanon at a time when it forces are being stretched on other fronts.

However, Kesler said there are other things Israel may be considering as it decides what to do next.

"The answer in one word is time,” he said.

"In the Middle East, you cannot deny the impact time has. Sometimes it's the best result you can get. Israel's not going to destroy Iran's nuclear programme. It may be able to postpone it, though. And with time, you can build capabilities. You can make new alliances. You need to ask yourself, what happens if tomorrow the leadership changes in Iran? Who's to say Iran later on won't decide to move away from a policy of brinkmanship?"

In the meantime, let’s wait and see if Yoav Gallant’s surprise option produces the desired effect.

 

G'mar Chatima Tova.

Beni,

10th of October, 2024.

Safe and sound.

 

 

 It has been a hectic week! Far more than usual in this hyperactive region.

 David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), focusing on Hezbollah, Israel, and Lebanon issues.

I am quoting from an op-ed he wrote for the Atlantic Council think tank

“On September 27, the unimaginable happened. At approximately 5:22 p.m. local time, reports emerged of a massive Israeli strike on the predominantly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut, known colloquially as Dahiyeh. Six buildings had been flattened, throwing up pillars of thick reddish smoke against Beirut’s skyline. Later in the day Hezbollah’s Al-Manar news outlet said the Israeli explosives had ‘terraformed’ the area. “The first comments from the Israelis were uncharacteristically cryptic, even for them, about the strike’s target. But clearly, it had been someone of high value, someone they wanted to ensure didn’t survive. Then the news started to trickle in on Hebrew media: Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had been targeted, and there was a growing assessment that he was killed.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s media outlets refused to deny Nasrallah’s presence at the strike’s location, exponentially increasing the likelihood of his death with each passing hour. Confirmation—from Hezbollah and Israel—would only come the next day on September 28. Nasrallah had died, leaving behind an organisation virtually synonymous with his name.

Replacing Nasrallah—not just the man, but the cultish icon—will be a heavy lift whose chances of success are improbable at best, leaving his death as perhaps the one obstacle Hezbollah may not be able to overcome. If, in time, Nasrallah’s demise contributes to the dissolution of the organization that had become so identified with his person during his lifetime, the world will be better off for it.”

Jonathan Panikoff (The Atlantic Council) opines that Iran is split internally about how hard to respond to Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and other hard-liners are likely advocating for a more aggressive response to restore deterrence and shore up Hezbollah. They are almost certainly the factions that pushed for Friday’s ballistic missile strike on Israel.

However, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s reformist president who took office in July, has spoken of Israel’s escalation as “a trap” to draw Tehran into a wider war that it cannot win. Avoiding direct conflict with Israel is crucial to Iran’s desire to repair its ailing economy and ease Western sanctions against it.

Israel has put Iran in a no-win situation. If it fails to escalate and strike Israel, it loses credibility with its proxies, which believe it hasn’t done enough to help them. Yet escalation could result in retaliatory strikes from Israel on Iran itself, up to and including its nuclear facilities.

Last Friday’s strike looks like something of a compromise, enough of an attack to assuage hard-liners and buy Iran’s leadership time without going so far as to trigger a wider war with Israel or, even worse, with the United States.   

Importantly, Israel’s recent actions have restored the aura of its intelligence capability and strengthened its ability to deter its enemies. Both had been called into question following Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023.

It has been the remarkable quality and depth of Israeli intelligence, and probably also its vast mining of data, that has allowed its change of course with Hezbollah.

Accurate and precise intelligence is what allowed Israel to take out Fuad Shukr, one of Nasrallah’s most crucial lieutenants, in late July and to sabotage thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies in September. It was necessary to pinpoint the location of Nasrallah and it will be a valuable asset in any future confrontation.

Unnamed sources told Reuters that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran. The move was made amid heightened security concerns for his safety, a day after the IDF assassinated Nasrallah.

The move to safeguard Iran's top decision-maker is the latest show of nervousness by the Iranian authorities as Israel launched a series of devastating attacks on Hezbollah. Nonetheless, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been urging to settle the score with the “Zionist entity.” Some Middle East affairs analysts claim that Ali Khamenei overruling his aides and advisers ordered the recent missile attack.

In a lead article that appeared in the Economist this week the authors cautioned, “Ever since Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis on October 7th 2023, violence has been spreading. One year on, the Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran. Israel’s skilful decapitation of Hezbollah, prompted the Islamic Republic to rain missiles on Israel on October 1st. Israel may retaliate, perhaps striking Iran’s industrial, military or nuclear facilities, hoping to end once and for all the threat it poses to the Jewish state.

Kill or be killed is the region’s new logic. Deterrence and diplomacy would be better.”     I doubt if we will accept their advice.

I want thank friends and family concerned for my safety and wellbeing.

I am safe and sound. The last time I checked all the family were ‘present and accounted for.’

Shana Tova.

 

We live in interesting times.

 

Beni, 

4th of October, 2024.

 

Ambiguity.

 

This preamble to this week’s post is about my birthday party. If you didn’t know better, you would probably think I am a nine-year-old telling my friends what a great party I had. Explaining that I hadn’t invited them because the invitations were sent mostly to my family. Admittedly, at times I behave more like a nine-year-old and less like a ninety-year-old.

In retrospect the change of venue from the swimming pool to the club house definitely was for the better!  I mentioned that we had to move because the pool was mistakenly “double-booked.”

Situated not far from the pool the club house is ideally equipped for small to medium size gatherings. The food was served buffet-style, bought from a local caterer. The place has all the audio-visual equipment we required.    The presentation projected onto a large backdrop screen included pre-recorded segments, mostly family photos and clips.

Your are welcome to view them by assessing the attached link -

 https://youtu.be/7_ApSb_qJMY

The background music isn’t played in the link. However, birthday greetings from my eldest daughter and her husband Marc were played intermittently on the backdrop screen. They live in Auckland, NZ.  

Here’s the link-

https://youtu.be/iSzOnQRAm5Y

While we were partying Israel allegedly ‘sparked off’ another pyrotechnic show.

An Associated Press correspondent reporting from Beirut said — “The Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs Friday was one of the Lebanese militant group’s top military officials, in charge of its elite forces, and had been on Washington’s wanted list for years.

Ibrahim Akil, 61, was the second top commander of Hezbollah to be killed in an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburb of Beirut in as many months, dealing a severe blow to the group’s command structure.

The strike Friday came as the group was still reeling from a widely suspected Israeli attack targeting Hezbollah communications earlier this week when thousands of pagers exploded simultaneously. The attack killed 12 people, mostly Hezbollah members, and injured thousands.

Akil was a member of Hezbollah’s highest military body, the Jihad Council since 2008, and head of the elite Radwan Forces. The forces also fought in Syria gaining experience in urban warfare and counterinsurgency.

During the 1980s, Akil was a principal member of Islamic Jihad Organization—Hizballah’s terrorist cell—that claimed the bombings of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in April 1983, which killed 63 people, and the U.S. Marine barracks in October 1983, which killed 241 U.S. personnel.

In the 1980s, Akil directed the taking of American and German hostages in Lebanon and held them there.

Akil was under U.S. sanctions and in 2023, the U.S. State Department announced a reward of up to $7 million for information leading to his “identification, location, arrest, and/or conviction.”

Israel has consistently upheld a policy of ambiguity regarding its alleged involvement in ‘targeted assassinations’, So I doubt if it will be collecting the reward.

Trying to fathom out we did and how it was accomplished is mind- boggling.

Take care,

Beni

21/09/2024.

Tunnel Vision.

 In a video prepared mainly for foreign news media outlets, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari gave a tour of the claustrophobic underground passageway in Rafah's Tel Sultan neighbourhood. The tunnel where the murdered Israeli hostages were kept. The place was littered with bottles of urine, women's clothes, and large blood stains on the ground, where the hostages Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Almog Sarusi, Carmel Gat and Alex Lobanov were held and executed at the end of last month. The army first presented the video to the families and they agreed to show it to the public as well. In the video, one sees IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari going down into the narrow, low tunnel, unable to stand upright. describing the conditions under which the hostages were held there.  

Another IDF spokesman said it did not have any specific or real-time intelligence on the six hostages being held there in the weeks before they were murdered, but had indications that the hostages could be in the general area they were searching, and therefore had operated carefully above ground and even more so below the surface in the tunnels. Apparently, after spotting Israeli forces approaching the area, the Hamas terrorists guarding the six hostages decided to execute them.

Hagari also aired a Hebrew version of the same video aimed at reaching Israeli viewers. “They were held here in this tunnel in horrific conditions, where there is no air to breathe, where you cannot stand upright. They survived, but they were murdered by Hamas terrorists. There are still hostages, 101, some of them are alive in the same conditions in tunnels like this in Gaza.” He said.

I’ve noticed that on previous occasions when interviewed, Hagari was meticulously careful not to add personal comments. Nevertheless, he intimated that time was running out for the rest of the hostages still alive. Commentators, Israeli affairs analysts and run-of-the-mill observers like myself noticed that Daniel Hagari was making a clear, critical point. “Close the deal now!” Prime Minister Netanyahu’s obstinate insistence on commanding the Philadelphi Corridor is tantamount to prolonging the war in Gaza and adversely affecting IDF operations in the West Bank and the northern front against Hezbollah in Lebanon. One analyst called it “Tunnel Vision.”

Netanyahu has had a bad week!

“The Bibi Files”, a new documentary by filmmakers Alexis Bloom and Alex Gibney, which features never-before-seen footage of Israeli police interrogating Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, his family and his inner circle on corruption allegations. The documentary was screened as a work-in-progress at the 2024 Toronto Film Festival on Monday, hours after a Jerusalem court rejected a petition by Netanyahu to block the screening.

The documentary, which shows leaked interrogation footage of the Israeli prime minister, made its debut at the festival.

Israeli courts rejected Netanyahu’s request before the film – in which he is seen furiously denying allegations of bribery and corruption – was unveiled to a tense and vocal audience, many of whom were carrying signs reading “Bring Them Home” and “Deal Now”, referring to the hostages held in Gaza.

The film, directed by Alexis Bloom and produced by Alex Gibney, builds a rigorous and damning case, posing an argument close observers may already be familiar with: Netanyahu is prolonging the devastating war in Gaza to avoid possible prison time stemming from corruption charges. A humanitarian crisis flouting international law is all about his self-preservation.

According to the documentary – which Bloom began working on before October 7, when a source provided Gibney with the leaked videos – Netanyahu’s lawyer filed a motion to delay the trial currently scheduled for December. The lawyer cites the ongoing war as the reason.

“I’ve never seen the depth of moral corruption as I’ve seen in this man,” Gibney, the director of Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, told the audience following the screening. A member of what appeared to be a largely pro-Israel audience policed Gibney’s language, interrupting the producer to clarify that Netanyahu had not yet been found guilty. The attempts at seizing control of the narrative, both on screen and off, didn’t end there.

The interrogation videos shown in the film were recorded by police between 2016 and 2018 before they formally brought charges of corruption against Netanyahu. The footage includes the prime minister addressing allegations that he and his wife accepted expensive champagne, Cuban cigars and jewellery from the Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan. Netanyahu is heard minimizing the champagne and cigars as simply gifts from a friend, while denying knowledge of the jewellery.

Several witnesses who worked for Milchan and Netanyahu are also shown speaking to police. They paint a picture of regular gifts expected by Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, in exchange for favours. One such favour includes a marginal tax break extension that benefited Milchan. Netanyahu argues his unusual interference regarding the tax break was for the good of the state, not Milchan. Meanwhile, the LA Confidential producer corroborated much of the witness testimony, though, in one excerpt, he gently asks police not to use the word “bribery” because it would make him look bad.

Netanyahu is also seen vehemently denying allegations that he signed off on regulations favouring the Israeli media mogul Shaul Elovitch. The prime minister repeatedly and dramatically calls one of his top aides, Nir Hefetz, a liar for saying so. Other witnesses argue Elovitch paid back the alleged generosity by allowing Netanyahu to directly influence coverage of his family on the popular website Walla.

The incriminating evidence in the interrogation videos has already been leaked and reported on by Israeli media. But the videos will never be shown to the public (at least legally) in Israel. According to Gibney, Israeli law grants privacy to subjects who have been photographed in official proceedings, which would make publication of the footage illegal. “It’s a law peculiar to Israel [that] doesn’t affect the rest of the world,” Gibney said.

He explained that they brought The Bibi Files to Toronto, as a work-in-progress, because it urgently needed to be seen while the death toll in Gaza continues to rise. But also because they are seeking distribution partners at the festival’s market, hoping to get the film released as quickly as possible for the world to see.

Though the documentary doesn’t reveal new information, Gibney explains that for an audience familiar with Netanyahu’s carefully stage-managed speeches, watching his agitation under interrogation, where his performance begins to crack, is illuminating. At various points when police officers confront him with incriminating testimony from his peers, Netanyahu raises fists and repeatedly slams his hand against his desk as if the banging will silence the accusations.

“Even in the interrogation videos, you see performances,” says Gibney. “But you see performances that are not as finely tuned; that are performed for an audience of three people; that he doesn’t think is going to get out of the room.”

The Bibi Files contextualizes the interrogation videos with a portrait of Netanyahu, whose career is built on stoking fear and promising security, and whose personal life is largely in service of his wife Sara’s turbulent moods and expensive lifestyle. Sara Netanyahu’s erratic testimonies and outbursts during testimony are also included in the footage.

Insiders like the Israeli journalist Raviv Drucker, former Shin Bet head Ami Ayalon, a childhood friend and more, are on hand as talking heads. They connect the dots and reveal the long-running pattern of Netanyahu serving his own interests while clinging to power – from deliberate ploys to sabotage an alliance between the West Bank and Gaza by enabling Hamas, to his alliance with the violent far right and attempted overhaul of the supreme court to save himself from prosecution.

Mittal Balmes Cohen of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem stated, "We won't see a substantial change in public opinion in Israel, but in the international arena it has great significance."

I’ll conclude with a personal titbit. On the 11th of September our inner family circle quietly celebrated my 90th birthday. Later this month we plan to have a much larger celebration.

 

Take care.

Beni,   12th of September, 2024.