The Stopover.

 A few years before the Iranian revolution deposed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, my wife and I spent a few days in Tehran. We were en route to Melbourne, Australia where I was due to work as a youth movement emissary.

We were shown around the city by a relative who worked in Tehran. At that time Israel had vested commercial interests in Iran.

During our brief stopover as tourists, we saw what appeared to be an open modern society.

Early on Saturday just before dawn our airforce also had a brief stopover in Iran.

The Times of Israel quoting other news outlets said, “Israeli officials aren’t speaking much about the airstrikes in Iran carried out on early Saturday morning, but that doesn’t detract from the significance of the operation.

It seems to have gone off exactly as planned, with no aircraft or crews lost in action. That in and of itself is a major accomplishment.

Among the flight crews included in the mission were four women navigators.

The risks inherent in operations 1,600 kilometres from Israeli airspace are daunting. A minor complication can turn into a life-and-death challenge.

The strikes were planned with the assumption that the fighter jets would be able to refuel near Iran” ...” Israel was able to get dozens of planes close enough to Iran to launch precision munitions at military targets in several waves.

In the first phase of the attack, Israeli jets targeted air defence systems in Syria and Iraq, preventing Tehran’s allies from intercepting the aircraft en route to attack predetermined sites in Iran.

The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.

Israel confirmed it had struck numerous military sites during the retaliatory operation later named "Days of Repentance."

The operation appears to have been aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to attack Israel, as well as making the country more vulnerable to future airstrikes.

An IDF spokesman said the attack focused on air defence, radar sites, and long-range missile production facilities and involved more than 100 jets and drones.

Citing three Israeli and three Iranian officials, the New York Times said Iranian air defence systems were also attacked, with the aim of limiting Iran’s ability to fend off future attacks. Some of the targeted systems are supposed to protect important sites including the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, the Tange Bijar gasfield, and the Bandar port in the south of the country.

Three Russian-made S-300 air defence systems around Tehran were also reportedly hit, as well as the Parchin and Parand military bases.

Later, early Saturday morning the IDF verified that it had completed its reactive operation against Iran.

The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been accomplished, with all planes returning unscathed to their bases.

I’m adding a margin note for the purpose of comparing the hazards of airforce combat operations during WW2 to the Israeli Airforce’s flawless attack on Saturday.

During World War 2 the Americans suffered a combined total of over 27,000 killed in action and another 9,000 wounded in action. RAF crews also suffered severely, with over 55,000 men killed and approximately 18,000 wounded.

The Americans lost over 6,000 bombers and fighter planes. The RAF lost 8,325 aircraft during the war. 

The US Army Air Forces (USAAF) and the Royal Air Force (RAF) caused terrible damage to life and property in Germany. The Combined Bomber Offensive lay waste to German cities, killing over 305,000, wounding another 780,000, and rendering 7,500,000 homeless.

Returning to the main text; -

“Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran. 

There were reports of widespread internet outages across Iran as the attacks continued.

 Israel’s attacks on Iran early Saturday destroyed air-defence systems set up to protect several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, as well as systems guarding a large gas field and a major port in southern Iran, according to three Iranian officials and three senior Israeli defence officials.

The Iranian and Israeli officials familiar with the attacks spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.

Israel’s destruction of the air-defence systems has raised deep alarm in Iran, the three Iranian officials said, as critical energy and economic hubs are now vulnerable to future attacks if the cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel continues.

 An article posted in Deutsche Welle provided an interesting assessment of Iranian public fears.

“In the wake of Israel's military strikes on Iranian targets early on Saturday, many people in Iran are turning to social media to voice their frustrations and try to understand what's happening. 

Israel hit military targets in Iran with predawn airstrikes in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic fired on Israel earlier in October.

As Iran is already in economic turmoil, with the national currency collapsing and inflation soaring, many Iranians are increasingly questioning the government's priorities, feeling the weight of a regime that appears more focused on foreign conflicts than addressing the dire needs at home.

Should tensions escalate on the military front, this disconnect between official narratives and public sentiment could have far-reaching implications for Iran's internal stability. 

The Iranian local currency, the rial, plummeted to unprecedented lows against the dollar earlier this week and the inflation rate has surged by 33% over the past year, according to official figures.

Meanwhile, investors are rapidly seeking to liquidate their assets on the Tehran Stock Exchange, leading to a halt in major transactions as many await the outcomes of these conflicts.

Markets are bracing for further increases, should hostilities with Israel intensify, and prices are expected to surge sharply.

Many Iranians are increasingly linking their country's economic collapse to the government's financial support of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Citizens express frustration over resources being allocated to foreign conflicts while domestic needs go unmet. As everyday life becomes increasingly untenable due to rising prices and inflation, there is a growing sentiment that government priorities are misplaced, fuelling public anger and calls for accountability.

"Even if the war does not escalate, the decline of the rial against the dollar will continue," said Alireza Salavati, a London-based economic analyst. "Additionally, the price of gold is also expected to rise. These issues are linked to the growth of liquidity, sanctions, and the psychological impact of the Iran-Israel conflict."

Iran is "one of the world's most repressive countries in terms of press freedom," according to Reporters without Borders.

The tight censorship was visible in the direct aftermath of the Israeli strikes, with Iranian state media initially remaining silent on the attacks.

This was in sharp contrast to the dynamic social media activity within the country, where people used VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to circumvent online restrictions to share videos of bright lights in the sky and loud noises on platforms like Telegram and X.

At the same time, accounts linked to Iran's intelligence and security apparatus warned on social media that sharing images with foreign media could be deemed espionage.

Eventually, some official Iranian news sources conceded that an attack had taken place but claimed that Iranian defences had successfully intercepted the strikes.

State-aligned media and social channels have continued to downplay the severity of the attack. Telegram channels associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, for example, shared images on Saturday morning of crowded squares in Tehran's centre, insisting that nothing significant had occurred.

Several government-affiliated journalists also broadcast from busy public areas in Tehran, on Saturday, asserting that life was continuing as normal.

"The media dare not write anything other than the official stance. Journalists have been prohibited from posting on their personal social media pages."

As Iranians usually do in a volatile situation, they seek information through Persian-language media based outside the country.

In Lebanon we might be on the verge of an effective ceasefire. In Gaza there’s a vague possibility of achieving a partial hostage release.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

31st of October, 2024.