Not at any price

Back to school, usually on the 1st of September in northern hemisphere countries, is an occasion Israeli political figures rarely miss. It's an image improving photo-opportunity and often a convenient time-slot to make a statement.
So when Minister of Defence Ehud Barak visited a high school somewhere in the western Negev on Tuesday he used the occasion to send a message.
After the traditional well wishing the minister called on the students to ask questions. In an oblique reference to Gilad Shalit a senior student asked
“Can the state guarantee my safety when I enlist, if I fall into enemy hands?”
Barak's answer was blunt and to the point. “The state can't even guarantee you will stay alive." He said facing the student but directing his remarks to attentive ears in Gaza. "The state of Israel is willing to do anything to free kidnapped soldiers – but not at any price."
Later the same day a Hamas spokesman made an oblique reference to Barak's reply indicating that the message had been received.
T,V. Channel 10 reporter Raviv Drucker griped about Israel's “emotional obsession” with Shalit. “There is no nice way to say it: we've gone ‘overboard’ about Gilad Shalit,” Drucker continued, ” The whole country is caught up in an emotional obsession. Our national agenda is a brief one line slogan – release Gilad, and to hell with the price,”
Expressing sympathy with the Shalit family Drucker concluded, “It's true that if I were Gilad's father, I'd do everything to set him free, but that's exactly the difference between the interests of a single family and the interests of a state.”
Quoted "off the record" Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak once complained about all the fuss being made "for the sake of one soldier." Nevertheless, Mubarak, not entirely for altruistic reasons, has repeatedly tried to broker a prisoner exchange with Hamas aimed at bringing about Shalit's release.
Ehud Barak's blunt retort and Drucker's brash remarks stand out in sharp contrast to the Shalit family's quiet subdued manner, their almost apologetic appeal for help. Noam and Aviva Shalit have stoically accepted many rebuffs and faced repeated disappointments. They are truly the "salt of the earth."
They are not alone in their struggle. A formidable army of volunteers is waging a war against apathy and the "not at any price" attitude.
The problem is the price is never right and at times the negotiations for a prisoner exchange are more like horse-trading than an equitable deal.
Israel has never shirked its responsibility to do everything possible to bring about Gilad Shalit's release; however as was the case in previous prisoner exchanges the other side demands more than we are prepared to pay.
Israel has always tried to exclude prisoners with "blood on their hands" from the exchange list although it knows that in the end it will be forced to release unrepentant murderers together with lesser villains.
The political price also affects the negotiations. Prime Minister Netanyahu is ever cognisant of the more intransigent views of his coalition partners and even members of his own Likud party.
At the end of July an old-new negotiator was enlisted to help facilitate a prisoner exchange with Hamas.




According to Der Spiegel the involvement of a German mediator in the negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit came at the request of the Israeli government. Germany’s foreign intelligence service, Bundesnachrichtendienst (Federal Intelligence Service, BND) was the obvious choice for the job.
The German government confirmed that intelligence chief Ernst Uhrlau is mediating the release of the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
The Der Spiegel article mentioned an added aspect of the negotiations, “As is always the case in the Middle East, the outcome is of far greater significance than the fate of one soldier -- it has to do with the future of the region. An agreement with Hamas would clearly improve the prospects for a reactivation of a peace process that has come to a standstill.”
The German government too stands to gain something, “The new mandate provides an opportunity to build its political influence in the region and to make it indispensable as a political negotiating partner." Says Der Spiegel.
Although the Egyptians hadn’t made much progress they weren’t overly enthusiastic about letting the BND replace them. Officially, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is still in charge, with the Egyptian secret service negotiating parallel to the BND.
There is an equation of opposing forces on both sides. On one side the Israeli government has to deal with its hardliners who call for an uncompromising negotiating posture while trying to appease the "Free Gilad" support groups.
On the other side, across the divide in Gaza, Hamas has to contend with its own hardliners, mainly the Damascus exiles while trying to appease the prisoners' families who want to see their sons released from Israeli jails.
Hamas stands to gain politically if the negotiations come to a successful conclusion.
If Hamas stands to gain prestige from a successful prisoner exchange with Israel, namely one Gilad Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian terrorists, it also stands to loose a lot.
The Hamas leadership in Gaza and the branch of exiles in Damascus certainly remember the golden era of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
While Nasrallah held the bodies of Israeli soldiers he enjoyed a lot of ‘prime-time’ exposure. Since the last exchange of bodies and one live Lebanese terrorist, Hezbollah has lost a lot of lustre. Its hoped for political gains didn’t materialise and its military wing is mainly hedged in beyond the Litani river.
Nasrallah is no longer a household word, just a fading turbaned image on a poster peeling off a wall. Admittedly he has replenished his arsenal of rockets and missiles and remains a force to be reckoned with, however after the Second Lebanon War and more so the ‘Cast Lead Operation’ in Gaza he fears an Israeli mad-dog response to any Hezbollah provocation.
Hamas sees this mirror image and wonders whether it would be wiser to hang on to Gilad Shalit. On the other hand with Gaza under siege and the pressure mounting the time has come to end the matter.
Der Spiegel concludes, "Thus, the opportunities for a breakthrough right now aren't bad."
I too have a gut-feeling that maybe this time something will happen.

The Daily Star Lebanon picked up on the Israeli- Egyptian cooperation, often alluded to but rarely admitted. The paper mentioned the speculation regarding the Israeli submarine cruise through the Suez Canal a few weeks ago. It quoted Emad Gad, an expert on Israeli policy with the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, who advised not to read too much into the submarine incident. “There may be some Egyptian cooperation with Israel, but it hasn’t reached the level of joint planning.” Gad believes Egypt’s permitting the submarine to use the canal “was more for the Americans than for the Israelis.”
The Daily Star continued, "The two countries still have just as many points of conflict as they do areas of common interest. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a sore spot between the two, with each government seemingly pulling in opposite directions. Egypt has worked (unsuccessfully) for years to produce a reconciliation and unity government between Hamas and Fatah – something that Israel staunchly opposes.
Earlier this month, Hosni Mubarak lobbied US President Barack Obama to push Israel for an immediate jump to final-status negotiations with the Palestinians. That would essentially be a direct repudiation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to delay final-status talks for years while building up the economy and infrastructure of the occupied West Bank."
It could be argued that Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad' unilateral facts on the ground plan, the building of infrastructure and institutions for an independent Palestinian state is in line with Netanyahu's master plan, but on closer inspection it isn't at all.
Defense-Update is an online magazine dispensing news and views relating to military hardware. I was surprised this week to discover that this strictly killing machines review carried a politically motivated article entitled "A Roadmap to Total Confusion." After summarily dismissing the Fayyad Plan as unmitigated
nonsense, not a plan but a "wish list" the authorless article proceeds to outline its own wish list:
"Having missed all past chances for a self-ruled state, by short-sighted leaderships, since the termination of the British Mandate in 1948, their only hope for a viable solution would be the so-called "Jordan option".
Jordan is also alarmed by rumours regarding a US-backed scheme to turn Jordan into a homeland for Palestinians. King Abdullah is planning a series of ad-hoc steps to foil any attempt to resettle Palestinian refugees in the kingdom.
So far reports indicate that at least 40,000 Palestinians are believed to have already lost their status as Jordanian citizens in recent months. Fearing a plot by Palestinian officers serving in his armed forces, the king has ordered a massive purge of the Jordanian military, forcing hundreds of officers into early retirement. Although the official pretext seemed organisational, none of the officers dismissed from active duty bear Bedouin tribal names. The Bedouins are generally considered loyal to the Hashemite royal house.
Political analysts in Amman said the monarch was ‘extremely nervous’ because of the growing rumours. They said the king and others members of the royal family were convinced that the new government in Israel was quietly pushing for the idea of transforming Jordan into a homeland for the Palestinians."
The large scale purge in the Jordanian army was mentioned in other sources, The rumour of a US-backed scheme sounds like more wishful thinking. After all the U.S. has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo in Jordan. However, the “Jordanian Option” is a popular concept in conservative circles in Israel, which is revived from time to time in different mutations. King Abdullah is cautious, mindful of the fate of his great–grandfather the first King Abdullah who was felled by an assassin’s bullet.
Despite his British upbringing and refinement he remains a Hashemite and knows to respect and especially to suspect.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 3rd of September, 2009.