Blowin in the Wind

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a busy man. When he's not defending his much maligned wife Sara he is cleaning up after his cabinet ministers. Sara has accrued an embarrassing tally of feuds with various housemaids and nannies. This domestic strife has been exploited by two of our largest dailies and in two cases litigation is pending.

Furthermore the need to restrain front line ministers in his motley coalition government has been compounded recently by the ill-considered actions of two junior ministers.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon caused a diplomatic incident when he insulted the Turkish Ambassador to Israel. Netanyahu's damage control, the personal intervention by President Shimon Peres and Minister of Defence Ehud Barak while they were on official visits to Turkey and Ayalon's grudgingly issued apology averted further deterioration in our relations with Turkey.

Last Saturday Minister without Portfolio Yossi Peled added another "unfortunate remark" when he stated that a military conflict with Hezbollah is inevitable. Yossi Peled is well qualified to comment on Lebanon and Hezbollah. From 1986 till 1991 Peled headed the IDF's northern command.

In all he served thirty years in the IDF and retired with the rank of Major General.

Maybe another conflict is inevitable but it doesn't appear to be imminent. Peled's expert opinion could be construed by Hezbollah as sabre rattling.

Later the same day the prime minister quickly distanced himself from Peled's terse observation. Yossi Peled's assessment was made in response to remarks made by outgoing UNIFIL Commander General Claudio Graziano. In an interview he gave to the IDF radio station General Graziano denied that arms have been smuggled to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Loath to find fault with Hezbollah he didn't hesitate to criticise Israel for "flyovers," namely, reconnaissance flights in southern Lebanon. Admittedly these flights violate the conditions of UN Resolution 1701, but they in turn are follow-through surveillance actions for the purpose of monitoring Hezbollah's arms smuggling.

Six months ago a weapons cache exploded at Hirbat Salim only ten kilometers from the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israel claims the arsenal contained weapons that came from Syria and Iran. Graziano confirmed that the weapons shouldn't have been stored so close to the border, nevertheless he insisted that they were old weapons not newly smuggled rockets and missiles. It appears that Hezbollah wants to distance its missile launching sites from UNIFIL observers and Israeli reconnaissance flights while keeping Israeli targets in range.

The Washington Post reported that Hezbollah had moved long-range missile launch pads into both northern Lebanon and its eastern Bekaa Valley, and that there was little the UN presence in the area could do to stop a war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Quoting Middle East analysts, the Washington Post report went on to say Hezbollah launch sites now likely extended to the north of Beirut.

The IDF believes that Hezbollah has obtained Iranian-made Fajr missiles, either the Fajr 3 or Fajr 5. The Fajr 3 is 5 meters long and can carry a 45-kg warhead.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah denounced remarks made by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in a conversation with visiting Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri . Kouchner told Hariri "Israel is our friend, and if there is a threat to Lebanon, it will only come from a military adventure carried out by Hezbollah in the best interests of Iran."

Despite Graziano's claim to the contrary Hezbollah has smuggled into Lebanon large quantities of rockets and missiles since the end of the Second Lebanon War.

On the down side, Hezbollah's showing in last year's parliamentary elections was well below expectations. The organisation's efforts to rebuild dwellings, installations and infrastructure destroyed and damaged in the war are far behind schedule.

Hassan Nasrallah is still holed up in an underground bunker. He lives in constant fear of an Israeli assassination attempt, either real or imagined. Consequently his rare public appearances are always in safe locations and are heavily guarded.

Israel's criticism of UNIFIL, albeit justified, isn't totally negative. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezbollah units manned positions very close to the border with Israel. Any casual traveller along Israel's northern border road could easily make eye-contact with the enemy on the other side of the border.

After the war Hezbollah was pushed back across the Litani River by the UN ceasefire agreement. Since then there has been considerable infiltration of Hezbollah personnel south of the established Litani line. Maybe it is too clandestine for the UNIFIL observers to detect, however Israeli surveillance cameras have captured clear images of these terrorists in the towns and villages adjacent to the border with Israel.

Minister of Defence Barak is usually well coordinated with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They share the camaraderie of the days they served together in the IDF high command's elite special operations unit. Just the same they differ politically and even if they are bonded in the coalition government Barak has to remind his Labour party voters that he is not Bibi Netanyahu's lackey. Likewise Netanyahu needs to show his Likud party followers that Barak is not pulling the puppet strings.

Consequently Ehud Barak's comments on the threats we are facing seemed to be at odds with the prime minister's cautioning words about the Iranian threat.

Netanyahu was on a visit to Poland and Barak spoke at a conference in Tel Aviv. "Israel's failure to strike a peace deal with the Palestinians was a greater threat to the country than a nuclear Iran."…."The lack of a solution to the problem of border demarcation within the historic Land of Israel - and not an Iranian bomb - is the most serious threat to Israel's future," Barak said and called on the Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, to return to the negotiating table. Abbas has so far refused to restart talks until Israel freezes settlement building in the West bank, including east Jerusalem. Well he may have to wait till Hell freezes over.

According to the London-based Arabic newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi Abbas complained recently to Saudi King Abdullah about the heavy pressure being brought to bear on him, particularly from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, to renew talks with Israel.
Mubarak told Abbas that Egypt would "wash its hands" of the Palestinian issue unless the Palestinians backed down from demands for a total freeze, the newspaper said.

Just the same Abbas insists on a total construction freeze as a pre-condition for talks with Israel.

Journalist Akiva Eldar writing in Yediot Ahronot claims the freeze is an illusion.
"Two months after the government decision on November 26 to freeze construction in Jewish settlements for 10 months, you'd have to be blind, an idiot, or a member of the Yesha (West Bank) Council of settlements to use the term "freeze" to describe the real estate situation in Judea and Samaria.
Two days ago, when Netanyahu planted a tree in Gush Etzion, he promised to place many more trees in the Ariel bloc as well, which is 20 kilometers east of the Green Line. In the case of Ariel, Netanyahu kept his word even before he gave it; as he was speaking yellow bulldozers were feverishly working on a new site for Ariel's industrial zone."
President Obama sent George Mitchell on yet another mission to the Middle East in an attempt to get the Palestinians and the Israelis to sit down and start negotiating. Abbas blames Israel for the impasse and Israel responds in kind, while President Obama is beginning to realise that this is a no-go situation.

In my search for good news to conclude this week's letter I noticed that despite the bad press we have been receiving over the past year, a number of well known artists and entertainers have been booked to perform in Israel.

Notable among them Sir Elton John who is due to give a single concert in Tel Aviv and Bob Dylan who will also be coming here.

At this juncture I want recycle the story of Bob Dylan's application to join my kibbutz!

In the early seventies, that's as accurate as I can be, one of Bob Dylan's cousins returned home after spending several months as a volunteer in Kibbutz Ein Harod Ihud. During a stopover in New York before flying on to Minnesota she called in on her famous cousin. Apparently her glowing accounts of the time she spent in the kibbutz aroused his interest. At that time Dylan was experiencing a personal and professional crisis and the "Dream in the Valley" described to him appeared to be the solution to his problems.

He applied to join the kibbutz and was rejected!

I'm sure the application and the rejection sounds far fetched, nevertheless it's true. At the time I was a member of the kibbutz secretariat and I remember the application made through an intermediary to the kibbutz secretary. I also recall the discussion that followed and the decision to politely decline Dylan's application. Most of the members of the secretariat doubted if the Dylan family would integrate successfully. In brief the transition from celebrity to kibbutznik was too sharp and was bound to fail. Later I heard that Dylon continued his quest for utopia and applied to at least three other kibbutz communities before his enthusiasm waned.

Have a good weekend

Beni 28^th of January, 2010.