Thursday, 28 April 2011

The Palestinian dilemma

"Few tombs on earth command the veneration of so many races and men of diverse creeds as this of Joseph. Samaritan and Jew, Muslim and Christian alike, revere it, and honor it with their visits," wrote Mark Twain after visiting the patriarch's tomb during his Holy Land tour in 1869.

Joseph's tomb 1839 -David Roberts


For almost eighteen hundred years visitors to the Holy Land have mentioned the tomb near Nablus. Some of them unquestioningly accepted it as the last resting place of the shepherd with the coat of many colours, while others referred to it as the "reputed' site of Joseph's tomb."

Although, as Mark Twain remarked, the site was revered by Muslims too, Islamic tradition places Joseph's tomb in Hebron, next to the Cave of the Patriarchs. In recent years, for reasons that are more political than theological, the Palestinian Authority has reiterated a claim that the tomb belongs to another Joseph. Namely, a certain Sheikh Yussuf Dawiqat, who so they say, was laid to rest there two hundred years ago. Further to that, they planned to build a mosque at the site, much like their attempt to have Rachel's tomb near Bethlehem declared a mosque and Muslim holy site.

I confess I'm not overly concerned about who is buried there. I mention the matter here because of an incident that occurred near the site early last Sunday morning. Palestinian police opened fire on a group of Israelis who sneaked in to pray by the tomb. One person was killed and four others were wounded.

The site is inside Palestinian-controlled Nablus where Orthodox Jews arrive periodically to pray under Israeli army escort in coordination with the Palestinian police.

Sunday’s visit by members of the Breslov Hassidic sect was unauthorised.. Palestinian officials claim that a policeman opened fire at the worshipers after “identifying suspicious movements.”

The incident was aggravated by the fact that the victim Ben-Yosef Livnat, was a nephew of Israeli cabinet minister Limor Livnat.

The foreign news media hardly related to the incident. Understandably the events in Syria, the ongoing struggle in Libya and of course the royal wedding have claimed most of the prime-time and space this week.

Since then the Palestinian Authority arrested four policemen. The most we can expect is a perfunctory trial and a jail sentence for the policeman who shot the worshippers. He surely knows that he won't languish long in jail. He can rely on the “revolving door principle”, namely, the quick "get out of jail" precedent employed by the Palestinian Authority.

In the meantime some vigilante settlers have been exacting retribution for the killing, a payback commonly referred to as the “price tab.” There were attacks on Palestinian property near Nablus, including the burning of a car, an attempt to burn a house, and stone-throwing at Palestinian vehicles.

While this was going on the rival Fatah and Hamas movements were busy concluding an initial agreement ending a four-year-old rift that has left them divided between rival governments in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Now that there appears to be a rapprochement on the Palestinian side Netanyahu says, "You cannot have peace with both ( factions), because Hamas aspires to destroy the State of Israel, and it says so openly."

Netanyahu isn't the only one who doesn't like the idea of a united Palestinian entity with Hamas on board. Most of the Israeli political spectrum have toed the line with the prime minister on this matter.

Arab affairs analyst Ron Ben Yishai claims that Mahmoud Abbas said the Iranians were trying to sabotage any reconciliation agreement between the Palestinian factions

Perhaps they fear that a reunited Palestinian entity will have a better chance of gaining statehood in September when their appeal for recognition is due to be decided by the UN. Arguably with the matter of Palestinian statehood resolved after September Hamas will find it increasingly difficult to justify attacking Israeli targets. A mellowed, moderate institutionalised Hamas doesn't serve the Iranian attack by proxy strategy. However, a Hamas spokesman was quick to reaffirm the organisation’s intransigent position regarding Israel and the peace process. The Iranians contrary to speculation congratulated the Palestinian leaders on the new agreement. It’s possible that they accepted it as a fait accompli, or maybe, knowing that the framework accord ignores the major differences that caused the rift in the first place they believe it is bound to unravel before long.

Ben Yishai says that most people in the Israeli intelligence community as well as independent analysts believed there wouldn’t be a Fatah-Hamas rapprochement. However news of an Egyptian brokered initiative caused them to change their assessments.

As a result, Wednesday's announcement of a reconciliation agreement, that includes setting up an interim government, “clear objectives” and a date for Palestinian elections surprised everyone. Ben Yishai speculated that, “Israel will have to reassess the situation, among other things because what paved the way to the surprising deal may have been a major Egyptian concession that convinced Hamas to sign the agreement.

Such a concession could be in the form of opening the Rafah border crossing to the free movement of goods and people and the lifting of other restrictions placed on Hamas. Another concession could be an Egyptian pledge to endorse Hamas’ demand that Abbas and the PA stop harassing the group’s West Bank infrastructure and grant it some control within the PLO. These are merely assumptions because the details of the agreement haven’t been published yet.”

Jackson Diehl writing in the Washington Post (“Palestinians launch their revolution.”) said, “Many Palestinians have long wanted an end to the Fatah-Hamas feud and the divided Palestinian government. But for Israel and the Obama administration, the reconciliation spells a disaster. According to reports Wednesday, it probably will mean the end of the West Bank administration headed by Salaam Fayyad, a technocrat highly respected by both Americans and Israelis. If so, Congress will almost certainly suspend $400 million in annual U.S. aid. It could mean the reorganization of Fatah’s U.S.-trained security forces, which have worked with Israel to keep the peace in the West Bank for the last several years, and their eventual integration with the cadres of the Iranian-backed Hamas.

The deal will also end any serious prospect of peace talks--since Hamas is most unlikely to accept longstanding Western demands that it accept Israel, renounce violence and abide by past Israeli-Palestinian agreements.”

The Christian Science Monitor correspondent in Cairo placed the agreement in a broader context,”The breakthrough comes as regional change has jarred calcified Palestinian positions. Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have watched regional revolutions and held small protests against their own leaders, whom they see as unaccountable and corrupt. They've also urged the factions to put aside their differences for the sake of creating a Palestinian state. That has dragged Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas's Khaled Mashaal back to the negotiating table.

Yet many observers are skeptical that the deal will hold, particularly when it comes to implementation.”

A former Israeli government aid said he is convinced that desperation drove Mahmoud Abbas to seek the accord with Hamas. However, "Hamas on board" might prove to be more of a liability than an asset. Hamas has been blacklisted as a terrorist group. Its inclusion in the Palestinian government could possibly deter some nations from recognising the united Palestinian entity.

Ever since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip, in June 2007, the Egyptians, Syrians and other elements have repeatedly tried to facilitate a reconciliation between Fatah/the Abbas-led Palestinian Authority and the Hamas’ government in Gaza. The attempts failed, despite both sides voicing their desire to end the division. During his visit to Tunisia two weeks ago, Abbas complained that Hamas was thwarting the talks, even though the Egyptian intermediaries had introduced changes to an earlier draft agreement in line with Hamas’ demands.

What hindered the deal in the past was Hamas’ demand to integrate into the PLO at an almost equal status as Fatah. This would grant Hamas the possibility to abort any agreement between Israel and Abbas. The unity deal asserts that Hamas will be joining the PLO but its relative strength in the organisation is unknown so far.

If the accord permits the integration of Hamas military operatives in the Palestinian Authority’s security forces, it will bring an end to the effective security cooperation between Israel and the PA and also end effective anti-Hamas operations by the PA in the West Bank. Not only Hamas’ terror infrastructure may be rebuilt as a result, but also its political infrastructure. However, this would require much time, and that may very well be the reason why Hamas agreed to postpone PA elections in Gaza, and the West Bank by a year, in order to consolidate its position and solicit additional support. .

The Christian Science Monitor report concludes,

“All that remains is to see whether Hamas agrees to the conditions set forth by the Quartet, which demands that the group recognise the State of Israel, refrain from violence, and honour past agreements signed between the PA and Israel.

As the full details of the reconciliation agreement are not yet known, it’s too early to judge its practical implications. In any case, it does not bode well for Israel, because it enables Hamas to utilize more powerful levers in order to thwart a long-term political agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. “

It seems likely that the current upheaval in Syria, which hosts Hamas’s politburo, influenced the decision to agree to the rapprochement. .

Veteran journalist Shimon Shiffer reasoned in Yediot Ahronot, Should the Palestinian reconciliation agreement materialise, Israel would not be able to count on the international community for support. As it is, European states are already ripe for dialogue with Hamas, and the only thing that prevented direct, open contacts with the group so far was the fear of America’s response.”

The dynamic events occurring in the region and now very close to us have hardly affected our daily routine. Admittedly we worry, especially the people at the helm who have the awful responsibility for the nation’s security. During these troubled times I’m thankful for our military might. I hope it will continue to serve as an effective deterrent.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 28th of April, 2011.

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