Early Saturday morning, according to plan and aided by fair weather we drove north to visit the Biriya forest. The forest covers about 5,000 acres of hill country north of Tzfat. Along the scenic road that winds through the forest we stopped at vantage points to enjoy the view. The Golan Heights and the snow-capped Mt. Hermon formed a backdrop for the Hula valley below us. Visibility was good, good enough to identify villages across the border in southern Lebanon. However, knowing that beyond the horizon,
The Naburiya synagogue
45 km to the north, as the crow flies, people in Syria were dying, our idyllic landscape seemed completely out of context. A few kilometers further on a sign showed the way along a side road to the tomb of Rabbi Jonathan ben Uziel. Many people say prayers recited by "singles" at his tomb are sure to bring them a life partner and other benefits. According to some sources Rabbi Uziel was so absorbed in Torah study that he himself found no time to find a wife. People unfamiliar with these traditions will probably find it strange that the tomb of an unmarried rabbi serves as a more potent intercessor than any matchmaking website. Rest assured, this is simply a case of reverse logic. Supplications to a long dead bachelor rabbi are said to bring the ideal husband or wife, a happy marriage and successful children. Let me quote a latter day case in point, namely the fairly recent "beatification" of Olga Hankin. Olga, the wife of Joshua Hankin, the man responsible for most of the major land purchases made by the World Zionist Organisation in Ottoman Palestine, was a midwife, but by an ironic twist of fate or physiology she was childless. A native of Minsk, Olga had a traditional Jewish upbringing, but by all accounts wasn't observantly religious. Notwithstanding her lack of piety Olga Hankin's grave on the slopes of Mt. Gilboa attracts many infertile religious women seeking the childless midwife's aid. During the Second Lebanon War 250 rockets fired by Hezbollah landed in the Biriya forest and caused fires that gutted more than ten percent of the trees. Today after considerable reclamation and intensive afforestation the damage is hardly discernible. Further on we stopped by the ruins of a lesser known ancient synagogue. The synagogue was built by the residents of Naburiya an ancient Jewish farming community. There is evidence that a village by that name existed here during the First and Second Temple periods. Later still in the third century the village synagogue was renovated and extended, but a hundred years later it was destroyed by an earthquake. Later on Naburiya was resettled and the synagogue was rebuilt in 564 CE. Coins found in the synagogue's charity box indicate that the site was deserted in 640 CE at the time of the Muslim conquest. Not far to the north of Naburiya the Jews of Merot fared better. Merot too had a synagogue that was destroyed and rebuilt. Adjacent to the synagogue was a small Beit Midrash (study centre). As late as the twelfth century Jews lived in Merot, however this small community and others like it found themselves situated close to the seam line demarcating the Crusader kingdom from its Muslim neighbours. Their existence was too precarious and one by one they were deserted. Only the stones remained waiting for new settlers and the planting of the Biriya forest. Since nothing in Israel stands alone, but is inextricably tied to events occurring elsewhere in the region, there is every reason to suppose that the Biriya forest is somehow linked to the Iran, Syria and Lebanon axis. Just follow the ball of string and we will get there. Jewish town dwellers and villagers; in the Holy Land and elsewhere, in the distant past, during mediaeval times and even recently, often lived in fear of imminent attack. Crusader armies, Mongol invaders as well as their non-Jewish neighbours often turned on them, killing and maiming them and destroying their communities. In May 1948 a turning point in our history occurred. We were attacked again but then and ever since we have been able to fight back. Furthermore, we can take the initiative and attack preemptively. "Will Israel Attack Iran?", asked Israeli military analyst Dr. Ronen Bergman in this week's New York Times Magazine following through with his assessment that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012. "War with Iran is coming" declared economist Sever Plocker in an op-ed he wrote for Yediot Ahronot on Wednesday. He is sure Israel with Western and Arab support will bomb Iran’s nuke sites earlier than predicted. "Israel and Iran are on an almost certain collision course," said Plocker. The same paper reported that embassies in Israel are also readying themselves for the strike on Iran. It said foreign legations in Israel are preparing contingencies in case of missile attacks. They fear thousands of dual-citizenship Israelis will seek evacuation. That piece of news coming after Washington Post columnist David Ignatius claimed that, “US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a ‘zone of immunity’ to commence building a nuclear bomb,” raised my anxiety level a couple of notches. Just the same, recalling the tranquil view from that vantage point in the Biriya forest I decided not to heed the panic mongers and stay here instead. The only place I know that provides an adrenaline boost every day. Nevertheless, if the prophets of impending doom are right Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might respond to an Israeli attack either by a direct counter attack with mass missile barrages aimed at Israel and maybe US targets in the Middle East, or subcontract the counterattack to Iran’s proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas. Syria is too preoccupied to even contemplate anything more than moral support for the Iranian response. Perhaps a combination of a direct reprisal backed by rocket barrages from Hezbollah and Hamas is a third possibility we should consider.
Walter Rodgers wrote in the Christian Science Monitor this week, "The Iranians are neither crazy nor stupid, although they often have a grossly inflated view of their place in the world, seeing themselves as heirs of the once proud Persian Empire. There is method in what Israelis like to portray as the mullah’s madness." Quoting Ali Alfoneh, a leading scholar of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Rodgers said that much of Ahmadinejad’s vehemence is for domestic consumption. Iran has been acutely weakened by economic sanctions. Its leaders want to convince their public that despite cyber attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, mysterious assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and what is believed to have been an attack on an Iranian missile factory, the country is still strong and capable of acting against its perceived enemies. In an article published in Haaretz author Sefi Rachlevsky emphasised the deterrence factor. He drew on remarks made by IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi regarding the existential threat Israel is facing at present. General Kochavi is no panic monger. He weighs his words carefully and phrases his remarks precisely. Speaking at a defence forum last week he reminded his audience that there are currently 200,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel. They are positioned in Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. He said the 200,000 strong pyrotechnic package includes thousands of rockets/missiles carrying large explosive warheads, and some with chemical and biological payloads. They are in the hands of people bent on Israel’s destruction. In fact, most of them are religious extremists, perhaps best described as apocalyptical madmen. “Therefore,” Rachlevsky says, “whoever believes that credible deterrence can't work should be high-tailing it out of here, and fast. After all, 200,000 missiles are being pointed at him right now. Whoever fears an Islamic nuclear explosion should certainly be fleeing. Pakistan has had nuclear weapons for over a decade, and they could fall into the Taliban's hands at any moment. The idea that 66-year-old technology can be kept from someone who wants it badly is absurd. A leadership that doesn't believe in deterrence should be arranging green cards for all its citizens."…. Strategic deterrence is definitely a factor in the Israel-Iran equation. "Israel's enemies also want to live, even the religious extremists." Richard Hass Foreign Relations president doubts if we can bank on a sane and sober Iranian leadership making rational decisions. On the contrary, we can't assume that Iran’s divided and radical leadership will always act rationally.. "There are significant drawbacks to acquiescing to a nuclear-armed Iran." He says, "Given its use of subversion and terrorism against its adversaries, a nuclear-armed Iran might be even more assertive. It might also transfer nuclear-related material, technology, or weapons to allies." The corollary of Hass' reasoning is that if Iran develops its nuclear weapons, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt would be tempted to purchase or develop nuclear weapons of their own. He concludes, "A Middle East with multiple fingers on multiple triggers is as good a definition of a nightmare as there is." The defence forum addressed by General Kochavi, the Herzliya Conference held at the Campus of the Interdisciplinary Centre, Herzliya was well attended by distinguished participants from Israel and abroad. It seems only one question concerned the speakers at the conference. Is Israel planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming year? Minister of Defence Ehud Barak said, "Many commentators believe that dealing with a nuclear Iran will be more complex, more dangerous, than stopping it today.” Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon ostensibly echoed Barak's aggressive line. “An Iran with nuclear weapons,” he said, “would be a nightmare for the free world, for Arab countries, and of course a threat to Israel.” Indicating the consequences of a nuclear armed Iran Ya’alon said, “There would be nuclear chaos in the Middle East, because other countries would not sit on the sidelines." Nevertheless, he added, "Any facility that is protected by people can be penetrated by people. Every military facility in Iran can be hit, and I say this from my experience as chief of staff." This message was directed at Barak no less than at the Iranians. After all, the defence minister recently claimed that time was running out, that in less than a year, Iran's centrifuges would be deep underground. Ya'alon thinks there is still time to consider alternative action. IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz seems to be in no hurry to launch an attack. He spoke of "continuing to disrupt Iran's attempts to attain nuclear weapons." It is very important, he said, "to continue to build strong, reliable, impressive military capabilities, and to be prepared to use them if and when the need arises." Military Intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi’s measured analysis indicated that we still have time to carefully consider all the options. He said that to produce nuclear weapons, Iran has virtually no need of additional capabilities. Thus everything depends on Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision. “If Khamenei decides to build a facility to manufacture the first nuclear warhead, we believe it would take a year. If he gives a directive to translate that capability into a nuclear warhead, we believe it would take another two or three years," Kochavi said. General Kochavi didn’t underestimate the international sanctions imposed on Iran. He said they were showing results: "Iran now has an almost 16 percent unemployment rate and 24 percent annual inflation, with zero growth”…”So far, the pressure has not produced a strategic change in Tehran's policies, but the stronger the pressure grows, the greater the chances are that the regime will worry first of all about its survival and reevaluate its nuclear programme," he said.
Tomorrow morning we are going on a short trip in and around the Jezreel Valley. There will be more idyllic views, photo opportunities and an occasion to relax.
Have a good weekend.
Beni 9th of February, 2012.
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