The Reunion

Reunions are sad-happy occasions reminding you that no one is spared the ravages of time.

The identity tag displayed on your chest further attests the fact that you are not instantly recognisable. Nonetheless, despite these fears and trepidations the get-together is usually a joyous occasion.

Last Friday I was my wife’s consort at her class reunion held here at Ein Harod.

Her classmates, children from Ein Harod, and other communities in the eastern Jezreel Valley had gathered to celebrate their collective seventieth birthday.

The event began at the top of the hill on a patch of lawn by “Eli’s Lookout,”

a vantage point commanding a magnificent view of the valley

My wife press-ganged me into service as the reunion’s photographer.

After the handshakes, cheek kisses and a fair amount of back slapping followed by coffee and cake, we all walked down to the kibbutz clubhouse where we mingled more and reminisced recalling childhood memories. I’ve heard the anecdotes so many times I almost feel as if I lived them.

Later we ate dinner sang the old familiar songs and saw a revamped black and white movie of their schooldays. The reunion was topped off by cultural renditions that were a trifle too long. Someone said “We must do this more often,” and I added an unspoken thought “Preferably before we are all in geriatric care facilities.”

Tuesday night we went to bed assured that the nation would be going to the polls early in September. The first reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset ahead of the anticipated elections was approved by an unprecedented majority. Wednesday morning we woke to discover that all is fair in love, war and politics. The prime minister had formed an alliance with the leader of the opposition Kadima party to form a national unity government.

At work our breakfast table parliament had much to say about the perfidious attributes of some of our politicians. I want to disregard the knee-jerk reactions of some of my breakfast table comrades and refer to better qualified opinions..

The Christian Science Monitor wrote, “The deal makes for a massive 94 -member coalition, one that allows Netanyahu to significantly improve political mobility and support for major potential domestic and international moves.

Mutual demands by both sides enabling the mega-coalition include tackling a laundry list of issues, among them mandatory military service for religious seminary students, changing the electoral system, far-reaching socioeconomic reforms, and possible changes in settlement activity and relations with the Palestinian National Authority. Mofaz had also been reportedly committed to supporting the government's policies until its term ends in late 2013.

Internationally, local political observers speculated that Netanyahu may also be seeking to strengthen his coalition ahead of a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, if P5+1 talks with Teheran do not curb their fuel enrichment program.”

The Washington Post also highlighted the likelihood of a military strike against Iran, “The agreement triggered a new round of speculation about the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel deems an existential threat. Some commentators said the deal meant that Netanyahu had cleared his calendar to prepare for war. Others said the sudden ascent of Mofaz, a former military chief and defense minister who has expressed opposition to a unilateral Israeli attack, made war less likely.” The paper’s Jerusalem correspondents forgot to mention that Mofaz recently proclaimed he would "never" serve under Netanyahu and repeatedly called the prime minister a liar. Justifying the new alliance Likud and Kadima Knesset members said it is a form of “realpolitik” the nation needs. Whatever they call it the deal stinks.

So far the public reaction has been very subdued. I’m surprised there’s no expression of public outrage or move to punish these fickle politicians.

In the short term Netanyahu stands to profit from the new coalition. The real test will be at the elections next year. Mofaz has gained a new lease of political life. Kadima was well on the way to political extinction.

The other coalition partners are understandably peeved by the new broad unity government. Netanyahu can now afford to ignore their threats.

The Economist speculated that," If Likud and Kadima proceed with the ambitious reforms they have agreed to, many of these smaller parties may flounce out of the government in disgust." The paper also claimed, "Observers are doubtful whether a real sea-change will take place in Israel's policy towards the Palestinians. But Mr Netanyahu can no longer claim he is hamstrung by his rightist-religious coalition partners."…Other analysts here reminded their readers that broad national unity governments tend to be paralysed by conflicting interests.

Paralysed or not the Economist conjectured " Where the new government's programme of reforms may dramatically change things in Israel is in its first provision: legislating a new and fairer arrangement for universal national service. In other words, an end to the exemption of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) young men from army service. This has been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and is the subject of growing public anger.

A new law, which the two parties pledge to pass by August, would require Israeli Arabs to do national service too, but in a civilian context rather than in the army. Success on this front would mean not just social justice (and popularity for Messrs Netanyahu and Mofaz) but also a critical surge in the size of Israel's labour force. IMF economists have pointed to haredi male non-productivity as a serious drag on the country's economy.

The new government will have its hands full pushing it through and will find it tough, therefore, to pursue another potentially momentous reform: a radical change of the electoral system. The purpose, the two parties proclaim, would be to shore up stability and enable elected governments to serve out their terms without constantly facing coalition pressures. In practice, this means strengthening large parties at the expense of smaller ones–a prospect which Israel’s political minnows are certain to oppose."

The new guy on the block Yair Lapid who launched his “There’s a Future” party hoping to contest the elections "penciled- in" for this coming September, has a problem. Admittedly he thanked Mofaz for vacating the centre segment of the Israeli political spectrum; however Lapid is not really happy about the new unity government. He was preparing for a short sprint to the September elections, now he has to maintain a political momentum for the next fifteen months. I’m not sure he can do it.

The New York Times' Jerusalem desk drew on Israeli sources to explain why Netanyahu made his move now,

"Some analysts have noted that the deal emerged barely a week after the death of Mr. Netanyahu’s 102-year-old father, a scholar and hawkish Zionist whom many here thought he had been loath to offend with compromises on settlements and other issues.

Several people close to the prime minister gave their positive assessment, saying the new coalition, whose largest bloc is Kadima’s 28 seats, is better aligned with Mr. Netanyahu’s personal politics than the right-leaning one he had led since his election in 2009. “

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Alex Zabezhinsky chief economist at DS Apex one of Israel’s leading investment houses said, “The ballooning budget deficit requires ‘root canal work’. Spending on laws and programs approved by the agreement, such as salary agreements and the Trajtenberg Committee's recommendations, have resulted in breaching the budget for both this year and subsequent years. This necessitates setting new and clear priorities, and deciding where to invest and what to forego. Such decisions are impossible with the current coalition, and possibly also impossible to make after the elections. By striking a deal with Kadima, it will be possible to cut budgets affecting the special interests of the Likud's small coalition partners and to focus on measures that are better for the economy as a whole.”

David Makovsky called the Netanyahu - Mofaz covenant “A marriage of Convenience.” In an article he published in the Washington Institute’s Policy Watch, he wrote, “On a purely political level, the deal was clearly done to strengthen both Netanyahu and Mofaz. Under its terms, the very risk-averse Netanyahu will likely remain in power for another year-and-a-half before facing a vote. And while he has not said so publicly, he is acutely aware that his previous coalition's dependence on right-wing parties hurt both his and Israel's image. He is also mindful of the fact that unity governments tend to be popular domestically.

The deal offers an opportunity for a center-right alliance (and greater independence and maneuverability for Netanyahu) that was unlikely to present itself after early elections. Although polls had put the prime minister safely ahead of Kadima before the announcement, he has long viewed Mofaz as a formidable opponent who could eat away at the Likud Party's Sephardic populist base. As a Sephardic former chief of staff who has championed economic populism, Mofaz casts an image of political moderation that poses a threat to Netanyahu, who prefers to bring him inside the tent. The prime minister also hopes that a unity government will allow him to openly absorb at least some of Kadima's more hawkish members after the next election, since the party originated in 2005 as a breakaway from Likud, which opposed Ariel Sharon's Gaza disengagement at the time.”

Yesterday was Lag B’omer . Everything about this festival is controversial. From the way it is celebrated at the grave of Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai at Mount Meron to Bar Kochba himself the leader of the second or third (depending how you count them) revolt against the Romans. Some people hail him as a hero. Rabbi Akiva thought he might be the Messiah. Some of his contemporaries and later rabbinical leaders decried the national tragedy he brought upon the Jewish people. Ironically, letters he wrote were found by archaeologists, yet there is a dearth of information about the revolt itself. Just the same, children love bonfires so they award Lag B’omer a top rating.

I began this missive with an account of my wife’s class reunion and went on to describe the unholy Netanyahu – Mofaz union.

I have attached photos of both events.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 10^th of May, 2012.