THE NEGEV SUMMIT

If you recall, last week I promised to add something about the ongoing police investigation into the terrorist attack near Be’er Sheva.

For that purpose, I want to draw on an op-ed written by Yoram Schweitzer in the Times of Israel. The article was further expanded in an   INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) publication.

Schweitzer’s areas of research include the Salafi Jihadi “camp” including The Islamic State (Daesh) and its subjected partners; Al Qaeda and its affiliates; Hezbollah; and Palestinian terror groups. He is an authority on terror related topics, including suicide bombings in which he conducted a project interviewing failed suicide bombers and their dispatchers

Yoram Schweitzer continues to serve in the IDF's reserve forces contributing his accrued knowledge and experience.

This is what he had to say:

“The deadly attack in Be’er Sheva on March 22, in which four Israeli civilians were killed by a known and convicted ISIS supporter who was released from prison after only four years, demonstrated once again that the dangers of Salafi-jihadi terrorism do not bypass Israel.

Although even in its heyday enlistment among Arab citizens of Israel in the ranks of ISIS was relatively low and amounted to dozens of activists, there is support for the organization’s ideas, and individual activists, perhaps squads, are still willing to act on its behalf.

The case of Muhammad al-Qi’an, a resident of Hura, a Bedouin town in the Negev, who was previously convicted of membership in ISIS, with plans to join its ranks to fight in Syria, clearly proves this. At this stage it is not yet clear whether he acted alone, or whether, as is well known in many cases of individual terrorism, his plan involved secret partners and aides. The follow-up reports since his release reveal that to all appearances he was living a rather normal life.

Maintaining a low profile without activity on social networks or clandestine partners makes it difficult to prevent an attack ahead of time and leaves the outcome to a quick response and containment to avoid more casualties. In the Be’er Sheva case, the duration of the attack and the lack of a rapid counterterrorism response by the security forces led to the greater number of victims and left neutralisation of the terrorist to armed civilians who confronted him and eventually shot him dead.

At this stage, the concrete motive for the terrorist's decision to act is not clear, but it does not appear that he was directly instructed by external ISIS members. So far, ISIS has not claimed responsibility for the attack, though it may be difficult for ISIS to forego the opportunity to support or even take credit for a successful operation. We can speculate that the recent appointment of a new ISIS caliph, who has received broad allegiance in recent weeks from some of his 24 delegations around the world, along with a call to resume retaliation activity for the former caliph’s death, and the approach of Ramadan, could have been among al-Qi’an’s motives.

In addition, there’s the possibility of increased terrorist incidents during the particularly sensitive month of Ramadan.

At this juncture let’s take a look at al-Qi’an’s home town, Hura. It’s not what you would expect. Certainly not the familiar illegal Bedouin shanty town where lawlessness rules unbridled.

In 2015 Hura was described as a success story and by all accounts it still is.  

At that time the head of the Hura Local Council Dr. Mahmud El-Nabari said, “We

succeeded in changing the failed education system to one of success and excellence."

Dr. El-Nabari, who holds degrees in Chemistry and Environmental Studies, was 34 years old when he was elected Chairman of the Hura Local Council and had no previous experience in the field of local government. While 52 municipal council heads were replaced in the last elections, El-Nabari was re-elected to govern Hura for the third time in a row.

 "The Hura Council had suffered from poor management, serving the ruling clan rather than the entire community, but in the beginning, it was a shock because I had no experience in politics or in the public sector." El-Nabari said.
He promised to serve the entire community and must have done something right, because today the water rates payments stand at 96% and municipal tax payments- 99% - one of the highest rates in Israel. In recognition of his achievements, Dr. El-Nabari received an award from the Movement for Quality Government in Israel.

Last week after al-Qi’an’s murderous attack and subsequent death Hura residents condemned his actions. His family didn’t erect the traditional mourners’ tent where relatives and friends pay their respects. The whole town was in a state of shock.
A second terror attack in Hadera on Sunday raised speculations of a possible connection between the two attacks.

On Monday Israeli Police and security forces launched a widespread operation to identify and detain supporters of the Islamic State in the Arab sector following a deadly terror attack that left two Border Police officers dead.

As in the murderous killing spree in Be'er Sheva last week, Sunday's terror attack in Hadera was carried out by Israeli citizens affiliated with the Islamist group.

The attackers in Hadera were cousins, both residents of Umm al-Fahm. One of the gunmen was convicted in 2016 of attempting to join the Islamic State fighters

CCTV footage of the Sunday attack showed the two men firing multiple rounds and calmly replacing magazines to fire more, mimicking ISIS-style operations.

Following the Hadera attack the Shin Bet domestic security agency and the police arrested   suspects affiliated with the Islamic State to prevent additional copycat attacks by sleeper cells.

Some suspects may be arrested and held under administrative detention.   

This procedure enables arrest and detention of individuals by the state without trial, alleging that a person plans to commit a future offense.

Security forces are likely to request court orders before administrative detentions are made.

Security officials say they estimate there are up to dozens of Islamic State sympathisers among Israeli Arab citizens, some have actively attempted or even succeeded in reaching Syria or Iraq to join the Islamic State fighters in the past decade.

Intensive searches conducted by security forces and border police units in Umm al-Fahm where the perpetrators live resulted in the arrest of several suspects.

Umm al-Fahm’s   population is close to 57,000, while most of its residents are law abiding citizens the presence of the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement in the town is a constant source of concern for Israeli security services.

The first two terrorist attacks occurred just as US and Arab diplomats met in Sde Boker for an unprecedented regional summit hosted by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

"I briefed the participants of the Negev Summit on the details of the Hadera attack," Lapid said in a statement.

"All the foreign ministers condemned the attack, sent their condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded."

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid welcomes Emirati foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan 

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, taking part in the summit, condemned the attack in a separate message on Twitter.

When Israel sealed diplomatic agreements in 2020 with several Arab countries that had long avoided formal ties, questions remained about how functional, how sustainable and how meaningful those deals would be. Even last month, when Naftali Bennett became the first Israeli prime minister to visit Bahrain, he acknowledged that relations still needed to evolve “from ceremonies to substance.”

The regional summit at Sde Boker on Sunday and Monday was certainly heavy on spectacle and symbolism. But it is also unquestionably the substance that Israel has been hoping for.

“One can feel the tectonic plates in the Mideast shifting.” Wrote David Makovsky, a research fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Studies.

In another step in Israel’s integration in the region, four Arab foreign ministers are convening with their Israeli counterpart, and the meeting’s location, Sde Boker, matters. The Negev kibbutz is a site in a desert region that is most associated with David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s iconic Zionist leader and founding premier.

It’s significant that it was Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who convened the summit and that it is being attended by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The fact that the Arab countries would attend the meeting is a testament to Israel’s increasing centrality in the region. Yet it is also a testament to the fact that part of Israel’s strength—not all of it to be sure—is its relationship with Washington.

All the participants at the Negev Summit have their own grievances against the Biden administration, but none of them sees Israel as a substitute for the US superpower. It is fascinating that each of the Arab states attending the summit views Israel as a country that could either improve their standing in Washington or supplement what they are not getting from the US.

Notwithstanding the United States’ repeated emphatic denials of deprioritisation, the Arab nations see the US as downgrading the Mideast as a top tier concern, and, in the process, downgrading them. In such a world, the Negev Summit, because of Israel’s role in it, becomes a vehicle for key Arab states to remind the US not to take them for granted.

And indeed, deprioritising the region is a luxury the US cannot afford. The Ukraine crisis has reminded the world that Mideast oil is still relevant if the US is serious about weaning Europe away from Russian energy. The fact that the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates did not go out of their way to take President Joe Biden’s call to raise oil production, asking to reschedule instead, is a reminder of how snubbed these key Arab oil producers feel.

The grievances against Washington vary from country to country, but they are real. In each case, leaders in Arab countries notice when others claim to get more sympathy and assistance from Israel than they do from the US, as it projects its power in the region. Here are some examples.

Arabs notice that it is Israel that is willing to be kinetic against Iran, whether it is pushing back against Iran and proxies in Syria, in Iraq, and even inside Iran itself. In contrast, the US does not retaliate against Iranian strikes at the US—for example, in the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraq border, among other places. It is hard to escape the view that, unless US lives are lost in such attacks, the US does not want any retaliation.” David Makovsky added that Iran seems more fearful of Israel than it is of the United States. Arab states have also noticed this.

In this context, Israel has no qualms about highlighting the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s connection to Israel. This is done symbolically, in statements by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett after Houthi rocket attacks against Emirati targets, and, just now, when rockets were fired at oil installations in the Saudi port city of Jedda.

Furthermore, and going beyond words, senior Israeli security officials immediately went to Abu Dhabi to offer key military assistance to the Emiratis dealing with the Houthi threat. Yet a senior Gulf official said they did not feel that they had received sufficient military support or solidarity against the Houthis, as somehow the US saw the idea of active support as encouraging the war in Yemen. Israel does not have the same relationship with Riyadh that the US does, yet it does have significant contacts, and one must imagine that Israel is sharing intelligence with the kingdom against the Houthis.

In short, these Gulf countries tend to see the region through foreign and domestic threats coming from Iran and the Houthis. They perceive Israel as seeing the region through a similar lens. Egypt also falls into the same category as those in the Gulf: it feels it does not get enough from the US, considering the threats it faces domestically. Indeed, Egypt routinely calls on Israel to assist with members of Congress who threaten to reduce US military aid, as Egypt is one of the largest beneficiaries.

To complicate matters, the Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated Egypt’s economic vulnerability. It relies heavily on Ukraine for wheat to feed its population of over 100 million. Moreover, Sharm el Sheikh has been a winter resort for many tourists coming from Moscow and Kyiv alike. No more—at least for now.

Enter Israel and Israel’s willingness to fill in the gap with direct flights to Sharm. With Passover approaching, expect a reverse Exodus among secular Israelis.

Israel is no superpower and is very mindful that there is no substitute for the United States. Nonetheless, Ben-Gurion would have been proud that, given Arab perceptions that the US is engaged in retrenching in the Mideast, it is Israel being welcomed by key Arab states, expanding its regional profile and at least partly filling that void.

 

I was sure I could conclude this week’s post with emphasis on the Negev Summit. However, yet another terror attack on Tuesday night put an end to my high hopes. Five people were killed by a Palestinian terrorist in a shooting attack in Bnei Brak.

The assailant was later shot dead by a police officer who arrived at the scene on a motorcycle. The officer, 32-year-old Arab Christian Amir Khouri, was critically wounded in the exchange of fire and died later in hospital

The terrorist was identified as Dia Hamarsha, 27, from the village of Ya'bad in the northern West Bank near Jenin. He was jailed for six months in 2015 for dealing in illegal firearms and affiliation with a terrorist group, an
d had worked illegally at a Bnei Brak construction site.

Times of Israel editor David Horowitz summed up the situation as follows:

” With 11 people killed in three attacks in eight days, the fear is that Israel is facing a fresh, intifada-style onslaught. It isn’t… at least, not yet.”

There are too many people proffering their inexpert advice. Most of it based on preconceived ideas and gut feeling.

I place my trust in our combined intelligence agencies. They have the means and the knowhow to deal with the current wave of terror attacks.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni                                                                                        31^st of March, 2022.

 

Purim and Passion Plays

This week we celebrated Purim, but for Israel’s Haredi sector the death of Rabbi Haim Kanievksy on Friday and his burial on Sunday, virtually precluded any form of celebration

Although he held no official position, Kanievsky was considered a major luminary in the non-Hassidic ultra-Orthodox world.

Kanievsky's death was published on the front pages of nearly every newspaper in the country on Sunday, from the liberal Haaretz to ultra-Orthodox dailies.

Various estimates put the number of mourners at his funeral in Bnei Barak at 850,000.

The police took the precaution of cordoning off large swathes of the Dan Bloc area (Tel Aviv and adjacent towns) to prevent traffic congestion  

The Ramat Gan Stadium was turned into a helicopter landing pad for evacuations and the IDF's elite 669 rescue unit was put on alert.

According to a report in the Jerusalem Post -    “ The funeral cost the Israeli economy approximately $ 466,000,000. The estimate is based on an analysis conducted by the business data company CoFace BDI.

Normally Purim is a joyous occasion. The general public either accepts the narrative as told in the Book of Esther “verbatim,”   or views it as a historical novel. Whatever the case, Purim is widely celebrated in the Jewish world.  

Purim and St. Patrick's Day land on the same day this year for the first time in almost 40 years. Despite the fact that they come from vastly different backgrounds, the one thing both holidays have in common is the tradition of revelry and booze.

Irish Jews prepared to celebrate a rare occasion that they call the “Double P”: when Purim and St. Patrick’s Day both fall on the same day.

Purim, with its focus on joy, fancy dress costumes  and more than a wee bit of alcohol consumption, meshes particularly well with some St. Patrick’s Day traditions, which have become a carnivalesque celebration of all things Irish. That is to say, Irish not only in Ireland but also in places   where there are large Irish immigrant communities.  

Many Jews in Ireland attend the annual city centre parade, often wearing something green. But the Jewish community of Ireland doesn’t mark the Double P in any specific way.

Most of the Jews of Ireland are newcomers to the country, and have only a superficial connection to St. Patrick’s Day — the traditional date of the death of Saint Patrick, a 5th-century Christian missionary who is considered the foremost patron saint of Ireland.

Only a few hundred of Ireland’s 3,000-odd Jews are locals, descendants of immigrants from Eastern Europe who settled in Ireland from the 19th century onward. The others, many of them Israelis, live in Dublin as employees of Google, Facebook, Intel and other high-tech giants headquartered in the city, which is sometimes called Europe’s Silicon Valley.

The newcomers began coming to Dublin about 15 years ago, and their numbers are growing: The number of Jews in Ireland leapt by 29% from 2011 to 2016, reaching about 2,500 that year, according to a 2020 demographic survey of European Jewry by the London-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research. Intel’s recent decision to invest a further $13.2 billion in Ireland could create new jobs that will almost certainly attract more Jews to the country.

The Jewish high-tech crowd tends to be secular but many are happy to participate in local Jewish school activities, and are a mainstay of community events.

In Israel, where hundreds of Irish Jews live, one group was determined to celebrate the Double P3.

The group booked Murphy’s Irish Pub in Netanya on March 20 for a Double P celebration.

Purim has a theatrical attribute that is more pronounced in Ashkenazi communities. The Purim spiel, alternatively Purimshpil, is a skit or play, a comical dramatization of the Book of Esther.

I’ve accounted for the drinking and merrymaking, so I’ll move on to the   Hamantaschen which I’m told is Yiddish for Haman's pockets. As you probably know they are three-cornered pastries filled with poppy seeds, fruit preserves, chocolate, or other ingredients. Other sources render Hamantaschen as Haman’s hat or ears. The latter aptly puts Putin in the Purim picture.

At this juncture I want to mention the Purimshpil again in order to raise a problematic topic, namely the Passion Play.

One critic explained the phenomenon as follows: “To the mind of ancient and medieval Christian expositors, the ‘self-execration’ of the Jews as told in Matthew. 27:25 proved their collective complicity in the crucifixion. The everlasting guilt of the Jews was underlined by many authors throughout the centuries, and in medieval Passion plays it was often emphasised in the most drastic and inflammatory manner. While such renderings, however, did not openly contradict the gospels, the unvarnished pictorial representation of the Jews as the murderers of Jesus, and thus a blatant misrepresentation of the Passion narrative, constituted a veritable tradition in Christian art. The pictorial tradition that began with the highly stylised and symbolical representations of the crucifixion in the early Middle Ages continued in the calvaries of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. It describes its development as well as its disappearance toward the end of the Middle Ages against the background of general tendencies in Christian art, and to assess its significance in regard to the relations between Christians and Jews.”

The Oberammergau Passion Play is without a doubt the best-known passion play. It has been performed every year from 1634 to 1680 and every 10 years since 1680 by the inhabitants of the village of Oberammergau, Bavaria, Germany.

The play is a staging of Jesus' passion, covering the short final period of his life from his visit to Jerusalem and leading to his execution by crucifixion. It is the earliest continuous survivor of the age of Christian religions vernacular drama. It has also frequently been criticised as antisemitic However, a multi-decade effort to reduce antisemitic content led by the American Jewish Committee and other Jewish and Christian allies, has, in recent decades, led to substantial revisions in the play.

A 2010 review in the Jewish newspaper The Forward stated: "It is undeniably true that the play was virulently antisemitic through most of its history, and that it gained an extra dose of notoriety after Hitler endorsed the 1934 production.  The review noted that the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) states that the play "continues to transmit negative stereotypes of Jews" and that even the Catholic Church demanded changes to the play, to bring it more in line with church policies expressed by the Second Vatican Council, 1962–1965. ADL's national director Abe Foxman once said that if the play is "about a Crucifixion in which the Jews kill Christ, you can never clean it up enough" to avoid an antisemitic message.

In advance of the 2022 production of the play, the American Jewish Committee has convened an Academic Advisory Group including experts in the field of Christian-Jewish relations, New Testament studies, and German-Jewish relations. This group was created to recommend, through ongoing dialogue, pathways by which the play’s leadership can further advance a decades-long process to rid the play of any lingering anti-Jewish tropes. AJC has described the collaborative process with the Oberammergau community as productive: “The Oberammergau leadership desire for ongoing improvement is genuine,” even as “there remain concerns about points within the play that do not properly reflect" the range of first century Jewish opinion on Jesus’s leadership. This reflects both the historic progress in Christian-Jewish relations in the past decades and also lingering tensions over the anti-Jewish implications of certain traditional Christian interpretations of the Gospels.

The changes to the play since World War II have included the manner in which the play presents the charge of deicide, collective guilt and other content.

Knowing that the Oberammergau topic is depressing to say the least, I’ll move on to the World Happiness Report.

For the fifth year in a row, Finland is the world's happiest country, according to World Happiness Report rankings based largely on life evaluations from the Gallup World Poll.

The Nordic country and its neighbours Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland all score very well on the measures the report uses to explain its findings: healthy life expectancy, GDP per capita, social support in times of trouble, low corruption and high social trust, generosity in a community where people look after each other and freedom to make key life decisions.

Denmark comes in at No. 2 in this year's rankings, followed by Iceland at No. 3. Sweden and Norway are seventh and eighth, respectively.

Switzerland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg take places 4 through 6, with Israel coming in at No. 9 and New Zealand rounding out the top 10.

Canada (No. 15), the United States (No. 16) and the United Kingdom (No. 17) all made it into the top 20 while Turkey has dropped back to 112th place.

Yet despite the famous social democracy of the Nordic Model guaranteeing high scores on metrics of trust in government and belief that others are there for you in times of need, there is a darker side to life up north.

“People get really depressed here a
nd it’s probably something to do with the long periods of darkness, and long periods of total daylight in the summertime can do harm to your mind as well,” said one Nordic commentator.

Israel is happy with its ninth-place ranking, managing well without the Aurora Polaris

and keeping some of not to so friendly neighbours at bay.

I planned to sign off at this point, but then a murderous terrorist attack in Beer Sheva changed my mood. The ongoing police investigation is still inconclusive, so I’ll leave the conclusion for next week.

 

Anyway, have a good weekend.

 

Beni,                                                               24^th of March, 2022.

 

 

 

 

Blue Rondo à la Turk 

In March 1960, a short time before I left New Zealand on the first stage of my aliya, I went to a jazz concert held at the Auckland town hall. The guest performers were none other than the renowned Dave Brubeck Quartet. Their repertoire included a jazz standard composition called "Blue Rondo à la Turk." Contrary to popular belief, the piece is neither inspired by nor related to the last movement of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart's Piano Sonata No. 11, known by the near-identical title "Rondo Alla Turca."

I’m sure Brubeck was familiar with Mozart’s composition, just the same the inspiration came about by chance. Brubeck heard this unusual rhythm played by Turkish street musicians during a visit to Istanbul. When he asked them about the origin of the piece they were playing, one of them answered "This rhythm is for us what the blues is for you." Hence the title "Blue Rondo à la Turk..”

If you recall a month ago, I posted a piece called "Rondo Alla Turca." In which I told how Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was endeavouring to reach a reconciliation with Israel, albeit for purely pragmatic reasons.

Last Thursday President Isaac Herzog was received at the Turkish leader’s presidential palace in Ankara, with a 21-gun salute and the playing of Israel’s national anthem. Herzog thanked Erdogan for inviting him to Turkey, quoting a Turkish adage. “The baggage of the past never disappears of its own accord, but we—our two peoples, our two countries—are choosing to embark on a journey of trust and respect, including a sincere dialogue in all fields, and I thank you for the in-depth discussion we just held. We are choosing to look forward, together.”

Herzog and Erdogan both announced that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu would visit Israel next month, in order to discuss with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid the reopening of their respective embassies.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has brought about world-wide condemnation. However, the invasion was not unforeseen, as the Russian military had been building up at the Ukrainian borders for a long time. Almost three million people have fled Ukraine in the wake of the fighting. Nevertheless, many civilians have remained in order to protect their country. Many countries have been affected directly and indirectly by the conflict. While some have supported Ukraine, others have sided with Russia. Still, scores of countries are toeing the line of diplomacy and have remained neutral.

Nonetheless, the country that perhaps has been affected most by the Russian invasion is Turkey. By not calling out on Russia’s aggression Turkey tried to remain neutral, mainly because of its complicated relations with both Russia and Ukraine. In fact, when Russia appeared to be unaffected by numerous sanctions, Turkey took the initiative to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. However, that was soon about to change when on February 24, this year, Ukraine requested Turkey to close ‘the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. Turkey, which until now had remained neutral, was pushed between a rock and a hard place. Ultimately it had to choose whether to side with NATO or with Russia. That being the case, Turkey finally decided to change its neutral rhetoric and side with NATO.

On February 27, 2022, Turkey called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war” and implemented the Montreux Convention of 1936. As a NATO member, Turkey, in accordance with the Convention has the authority over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that connect the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. During war or when Turkey feels threatened, it can use the Convention to regulate the transit of naval warships across the straits, effectively preventing them from joining the conflict.

In spite of that, the blockade hardly affected Russia because 16 ships from Russia’s naval fleets, passed through the straits last month. They had sailed into the Black Sea under the pretext of holding naval drills, which now gives Russia both military and economic leverage over Kyiv. The same naval presence in the region was also used to launch attacks on Ukraine’s southern coast. Despite the implementation of the Montreux Convention, Turkey is not entirely leaning towards NATO. Ankara is, in fact, neither closing its airspace to Russian aircraft nor has it announced any sanctions, evidently it is still trying to walk a treacherous diplomatic-economic tightrope.

These developments are a result of Turkey’s complex relations with Russia. The two countries share interests in several sectors, mainly tourism, defence, energy, construction and retail goods. Nonetheless, Turkey-Russia trade relations are asymmetrical, with the former relying on Moscow to a far greater degree. For instance, Turkey receives about 33 per cent of its natural gas from Russia and 66% of its agricultural wheat imports. Turkey is a holiday destination for many affluent Russians hosting 4.7 million Russian tourists annually.  On the other hand, Russia is also the largest foreign market for Turkish construction companies, with an estimated sales outlet of US$ 71.8 billion since 2018.

In addition to that, the two countries also share significant defence cooperation. Turkey uses the Russian S-400 defence system purchased at the time of the rising of the Syrian Kurds and their alarming expansion in northern Syria. Despite the diversification of markets and overall interdependence, Russia still holds leverage over Turkey in all sectors.

Turkey’s critical interest is enmeshed in Russia’s involvement in Syria, which accommodates the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a group that is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and is a designated a terrorist organisation by several countries, including the USA and Turkey. Syria is a very sensitive issue for Turkey, as the region hosts the historical conflict between Turks and Kurds, in which the West and Russia have interfered to advance their interests. If Turkey sways too much towards Ukraine and NATO, then Russia may use the situation in Syria as a pawn to retaliate.

In the Idlib province, the last rebel-held territory in Syria, Russia and the Syrian regime are fighting to regain control of the area. At the same time, the rebels are supported by the Turkish army. The resulting humanitarian crisis has aroused fears that it would lead to a military confrontation between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member.

Consequently, a ceasefire agreement was established between Russia and Turkey in Idlib, to ensure that the situation doesn’t deteriorate further.  Idlib is home to over 3 million people, including refugees from the nine-year civil war in Syria. If Russia or the Syrian regime decided to attack the province, it would further pressure Turkey as more civilians would try to cross the border. Turkey has already taken in over 4 million refugees and is unwilling to accept anymore

The refugee population is increasing pressure on internal policy issues in Turkey aggravating the already hostile attitude of the local population. Public opinion surveys show that Erdoğan’s government has been blamed for the crisis. The two countries have also found themselves at loggerheads over other conflicts, especially in Syria and Libya, and most recently in the conflagration between Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Despite finding themselves at odds in these conflicts, both countries have successfully maintained diplomatic ties and have learnt to live with their love-hate relationship. But given both the internal pressures and geopolitical implications, Turkey would ultimately hope to hold onto a positive relationship with Putin in the wake of current events.

Despite its initial position of being non-aligned between Ukraine and Russia, Turkey finally decided to take a stance along with the rest of the West in condemning the invasion.

Turkey has realised that as an emerging power in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, it needs to create and maintain foreign policies independent of its membership in NATO.

As a result of the current economic crisis and domestic unrest Erdogan is now trying to improve relations with Israel. 

If you have managed to follow this very convoluted account of Turkey’s predicament, I commend you. I find it mind boggling.

 

Anyway, have a good weekend.

  

Beni,                                                                           17^th of March, 2022.