Blue Rondo à la Turk 

In March 1960, a short time before I left New Zealand on the first stage of my aliya, I went to a jazz concert held at the Auckland town hall. The guest performers were none other than the renowned Dave Brubeck Quartet. Their repertoire included a jazz standard composition called "Blue Rondo à la Turk." Contrary to popular belief, the piece is neither inspired by nor related to the last movement of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart's Piano Sonata No. 11, known by the near-identical title "Rondo Alla Turca."

I’m sure Brubeck was familiar with Mozart’s composition, just the same the inspiration came about by chance. Brubeck heard this unusual rhythm played by Turkish street musicians during a visit to Istanbul. When he asked them about the origin of the piece they were playing, one of them answered "This rhythm is for us what the blues is for you." Hence the title "Blue Rondo à la Turk..”

If you recall a month ago, I posted a piece called "Rondo Alla Turca." In which I told how Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was endeavouring to reach a reconciliation with Israel, albeit for purely pragmatic reasons.

Last Thursday President Isaac Herzog was received at the Turkish leader’s presidential palace in Ankara, with a 21-gun salute and the playing of Israel’s national anthem. Herzog thanked Erdogan for inviting him to Turkey, quoting a Turkish adage. “The baggage of the past never disappears of its own accord, but we—our two peoples, our two countries—are choosing to embark on a journey of trust and respect, including a sincere dialogue in all fields, and I thank you for the in-depth discussion we just held. We are choosing to look forward, together.”

Herzog and Erdogan both announced that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu would visit Israel next month, in order to discuss with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid the reopening of their respective embassies.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has brought about world-wide condemnation. However, the invasion was not unforeseen, as the Russian military had been building up at the Ukrainian borders for a long time. Almost three million people have fled Ukraine in the wake of the fighting. Nevertheless, many civilians have remained in order to protect their country. Many countries have been affected directly and indirectly by the conflict. While some have supported Ukraine, others have sided with Russia. Still, scores of countries are toeing the line of diplomacy and have remained neutral.

Nonetheless, the country that perhaps has been affected most by the Russian invasion is Turkey. By not calling out on Russia’s aggression Turkey tried to remain neutral, mainly because of its complicated relations with both Russia and Ukraine. In fact, when Russia appeared to be unaffected by numerous sanctions, Turkey took the initiative to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. However, that was soon about to change when on February 24, this year, Ukraine requested Turkey to close ‘the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. Turkey, which until now had remained neutral, was pushed between a rock and a hard place. Ultimately it had to choose whether to side with NATO or with Russia. That being the case, Turkey finally decided to change its neutral rhetoric and side with NATO.

On February 27, 2022, Turkey called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war” and implemented the Montreux Convention of 1936. As a NATO member, Turkey, in accordance with the Convention has the authority over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that connect the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. During war or when Turkey feels threatened, it can use the Convention to regulate the transit of naval warships across the straits, effectively preventing them from joining the conflict.

In spite of that, the blockade hardly affected Russia because 16 ships from Russia’s naval fleets, passed through the straits last month. They had sailed into the Black Sea under the pretext of holding naval drills, which now gives Russia both military and economic leverage over Kyiv. The same naval presence in the region was also used to launch attacks on Ukraine’s southern coast. Despite the implementation of the Montreux Convention, Turkey is not entirely leaning towards NATO. Ankara is, in fact, neither closing its airspace to Russian aircraft nor has it announced any sanctions, evidently it is still trying to walk a treacherous diplomatic-economic tightrope.

These developments are a result of Turkey’s complex relations with Russia. The two countries share interests in several sectors, mainly tourism, defence, energy, construction and retail goods. Nonetheless, Turkey-Russia trade relations are asymmetrical, with the former relying on Moscow to a far greater degree. For instance, Turkey receives about 33 per cent of its natural gas from Russia and 66% of its agricultural wheat imports. Turkey is a holiday destination for many affluent Russians hosting 4.7 million Russian tourists annually.  On the other hand, Russia is also the largest foreign market for Turkish construction companies, with an estimated sales outlet of US$ 71.8 billion since 2018.

In addition to that, the two countries also share significant defence cooperation. Turkey uses the Russian S-400 defence system purchased at the time of the rising of the Syrian Kurds and their alarming expansion in northern Syria. Despite the diversification of markets and overall interdependence, Russia still holds leverage over Turkey in all sectors.

Turkey’s critical interest is enmeshed in Russia’s involvement in Syria, which accommodates the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a group that is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and is a designated a terrorist organisation by several countries, including the USA and Turkey. Syria is a very sensitive issue for Turkey, as the region hosts the historical conflict between Turks and Kurds, in which the West and Russia have interfered to advance their interests. If Turkey sways too much towards Ukraine and NATO, then Russia may use the situation in Syria as a pawn to retaliate.

In the Idlib province, the last rebel-held territory in Syria, Russia and the Syrian regime are fighting to regain control of the area. At the same time, the rebels are supported by the Turkish army. The resulting humanitarian crisis has aroused fears that it would lead to a military confrontation between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member.

Consequently, a ceasefire agreement was established between Russia and Turkey in Idlib, to ensure that the situation doesn’t deteriorate further.  Idlib is home to over 3 million people, including refugees from the nine-year civil war in Syria. If Russia or the Syrian regime decided to attack the province, it would further pressure Turkey as more civilians would try to cross the border. Turkey has already taken in over 4 million refugees and is unwilling to accept anymore

The refugee population is increasing pressure on internal policy issues in Turkey aggravating the already hostile attitude of the local population. Public opinion surveys show that Erdoğan’s government has been blamed for the crisis. The two countries have also found themselves at loggerheads over other conflicts, especially in Syria and Libya, and most recently in the conflagration between Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Despite finding themselves at odds in these conflicts, both countries have successfully maintained diplomatic ties and have learnt to live with their love-hate relationship. But given both the internal pressures and geopolitical implications, Turkey would ultimately hope to hold onto a positive relationship with Putin in the wake of current events.

Despite its initial position of being non-aligned between Ukraine and Russia, Turkey finally decided to take a stance along with the rest of the West in condemning the invasion.

Turkey has realised that as an emerging power in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, it needs to create and maintain foreign policies independent of its membership in NATO.

As a result of the current economic crisis and domestic unrest Erdogan is now trying to improve relations with Israel. 

If you have managed to follow this very convoluted account of Turkey’s predicament, I commend you. I find it mind boggling.

 

Anyway, have a good weekend.

  

Beni,                                                                           17^th of March, 2022.