Bringing them home.

 

If all goes well and according to plan, the first phase of the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners will take place on Friday afternoon. In the meantime, the fighting continues unabated.

Observing the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler of the Israel Democracy Institute said,  ' New-Tech' plays a role in the Gaza war, but not to the level Israel once envisioned.

"When technology replaces humans, it comes at the cost of dulling human intuition and tends to distance the soldier from the battlefield reality"

In 2020, Israel launched a new military doctrine and modernisation programme commonly referred to as the “Momentum” plan. The concept relies on a rapid war of manoeuvre, blending quick strikes and the highest technological capabilities the IDF can bring to the front.

The grinding war in Gaza — four weeks of aerial bombardment followed by the slow taking of territory — resembles nothing like what was laid out in that 2020 document. Instead, Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks has relied heavily on classic military tactics and, in some cases, older military hardware that the developers of the “Momentum” plan expected to send to the scrap metal yards.

The campaign in Gaza illustrates the challenges that militaries continue to confront as they incorporate advanced technology in existing platforms.     For instance, while Israel has used artificial intelligence and big data to identify targets, the automated tools still require a large force on the ground to carry out the campaign. Efficient use of strike cells and closing sensor-to-shooter loops faster, can have an impact, but the pace of the campaign shows that overall, the change may be incremental.

A piece in the Economist under the heading - “The sinews of war” claims that Israel’s declared goal of destroying Hamas for good requires its financial base to be dismantled, too. Very little of this sits in Gaza at all. Instead, it is overseas in friendly countries. Furnished with money-launderers, mining companies and much else, Hamas’s financial empire is reckoned to bring in more than $1bn a year. Having been painstakingly crafted to avoid Western sanctions, it may be out of reach for Israel and its allies.

Let’s leave the money wherever it is deposited, accruing interest.

I’m tempted to hope that once the Hamas military echelon has been eliminated, maybe it will be possible use the money for constructive civilian purposes in Gaza.

“The guns will go quiet; food and medicine will get to those in desperate need and hostages will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. That may sound like the start of a process to end the brutal six-week-old war between Israel and Hamas, which has reduced much of Gaza to rubble. 

It almost certainly is not,” wrote Ethan Bronner, Bloomberg News.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that clear, shortly before his cabinet agreed early Wednesday to the deal. “We are at war and we will continue the war,” he said. 

His words signal disappointment in store for the many countries — from the Arab world to Europe — that have been urging a short-term cease-fire in the hope it will lead to something more enduring. 

As for the US, Israel’s chief backer, its position is somewhat different. Washington joined the calls for a pause but recognises that fighting is likely to resume. It just wants that Israel will conduct the war with more restraint when that happens.  

Most of the world is simply telling Israel to stop.

“Many people don’t want to believe the Israelis; it seems they would rather believe Hamas. Media outlets often caveat announcements by the IDF, pointedly saying that what they claim cannot be independently verified. Rarely, however, are reports from Gaza questioned in such a way, when every word coming from any part of the Strip that is still dominated by Hamas should be seen as being spoken under duress, whether by journalists, doctors or UN officials. 

Very often casualty figures from the Gaza Health Ministry are treated as if they come from the UK National Health Service (NHS), even though it is well understood that the ministry is ruthlessly controlled by Hamas,” Commented Colonel Richard Kemp in a post on the UK news website The Telegraph.

Kemp is a frequent visitor to Israel, and makes it a point to give interviews to media outlets that tend to adopt a hostile approach to Israel. The way he sees it, Israel isn't just defending itself, but the free world as a whole.

One of those interviews would turn particularly testy, as the interviewer challenged Kemp about how Israel's response is "disproportionate," which really annoyed him. He questioned the entire approach, rhetorically asking the interviewer if he expects Israel to start chopping off babies' heads and committing war crimes while sadistically smiling to the cameras, as that would likely be "proportional."

Kemp said he doubts the interview will be broadcasted. He says the BBC is pathologically anti-Israel. Their idea of a debate is bringing in two experts. One who is anti-Israel, and the other is very anti-Israel.

“The soldiers in the field who are at the pinnacle of a highly accomplished offensive effort will go into static mode,” analyst Yossi Yehoshua wrote in Yediot Aharonot.

The deal struck in recent days is little different from one rejected by Israel weeks ago. But two things have happened since. 

The families of hostages have agitated successfully and now their cause has gained precedence over the military campaign in Gaza.

Since the hostages were victims of Israel’s failure to defend its border and protect its citizens on Oct. 7, there’s been a growing sense that to abandon them again by walking away from a deal would be inexcusable. But then the war will start again.

“It’s very clear to the decision-makers that they cannot stop,” Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser, told reporters. “Israeli sentiment will not let them. If they stop after the four, five or six days of cease-fire, that will be the end of this government.”

Amidror acknowledged that the coming pause might allow Hamas to regroup and replenish some of its armaments. However, that won’t change the balance of power or significantly affect Israeli losses. 

Now that one halt in fighting has been agreed, some diplomats say more can follow.

“I hope that the deal can be the basis for extended pauses and then transition to a cease-fire,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan.

The US has urged pauses for humanitarian aid and hostage releases but not for ending hostilities quickly. The Biden administration’s view has been that in order to destroy Hamas – a goal the US says it shares — Israel needs to fight more carefully, which may mean fighting for longer. 

Israel has agreed to a condition laid out by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to halt Israeli UAVs (drones) in the Gaza airspace for six hours on each day of the ceasefire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages held by Hamas.

The condition's implementation was addressed by an Israeli official who cited statements made by the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), stating that they have intelligence-gathering capabilities even during the ceasefire days. "We will not be blind and we'll know what's happening on the ground," the official said. He was probably referring to the Ofeq series of Israeli reconnaissance satellites   first launched in 1988. The low Earth orbit satellites complete one Earth orbit every 90 minutes.

Ofeq satellites have an effective operational lifespan of 1–3 years and are equipped with ultraviolet and visible imaging sensors. Some reports place the imaging resolution at 80 cm for Ofeq-5. Ofeq-13 was successfully launched in March this year. It’s reasonable to suppose that its imaging resolution is at least as good as its predecessors.

Confident that our ‘eyes in the sky’ are aiding our ‘boots on the ground’ we can all sleep safely at night.

Take care.

 

Beni,

 23^rd of November, 2023.