Ramadan.

 

 Worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque

A casual observer unfamiliar with the mind-boggling complexity of our region, would probably be confused by the conflicting Palestinian-Israeli narratives.

Furthermore, images of displaced Gazans moving (mostly on foot) north and south are disconcerting to say the least, even for many people more familiar with the Near-East arena. The adage, ‘A picture is worth a thousand words,’ is especially apt in this instance.

Admittedly, sympathy for the displaced people in Gaza should take into account that many of them still support Hamas. I base this assumption on a relatively recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR).

It’s difficult to assess how much of this support for Hamas stems from the incidence of casualties among innocent bystanders. Foreign news media outlets invariably cite figures supplied by Gaza’s health ministry and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). In their reporting they rarely mention that both are subservient to Hamas.

On a number of occasions, I have mentioned Colonel Richard Kemp, a retired British army officer, who claims the IDF is one of the most moral armies in the world. Kemp is often verbally attacked by critics of Israel, especially regarding the ‘innocent bystander casualties’ issue.

Responding to critics he said “Of course innocent civilians were killed. War is chaos and full of mistakes. There have been mistakes by the British, American and other forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq, many of which can be put down to human error. But mistakes are not war crimes.

More than anything, the civilian casualties were a consequence of Hamas’ way of fighting. Hamas deliberately uses civilians as human shields.” ….” The IDF has done more to safeguard the rights of civilians in a combat zone than any other army in the history of warfare.”

When foreign policy and defence experts tell Israel it does not need strategic depth, they do not take into account how small Israel is.

One often overlooked aspect of Israel’s predicament vis-à-vis its not-so-nice neighbours, was highlighted by Dr. Eric R. Mandel in an op-ed he wrote for the Jerusalem Post recently. Dr. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report and a contributor to The Hill and The Jerusalem Post. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign policy advisers about the Middle East.

“When foreign policy and defence experts tell Israel it does not need strategic depth, they do not take into account how small Israel is” The total area of the State of Israel is 22,145 sq.km (8,630 sq. miles), of which 21,671 sq. km is land area. Israel is some 420 km in length and about 115 km across at the widest point.

In size it’s much like New Jersey. At 7,354 square miles (19,050 km2), New Jersey is the fifth-smallest state in the union, but with close to 9.4 million residents New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the nation. Most of its problems can be dealt with by local authorities, none of them are defence-related.

Before October 7, Israel’s lack of strategic depth was considered manageable by many Israeli and American political and security experts. After that infamous Saturday morning, the importance of strategic depth has emerged as a profound vulnerability.

“The reason it is essential to grasp Israel’s size is that so many Israeli critics and advocates demanding that Israel return to the indefensible 1967 lines (Green Line, or 1949 Armistice Line) like to portray Israel as a Goliath terrorising the helpless Muslim world. 

They choose to ignore how tiny Israel is when one looks at a map – less than 1% of the land mass of the greater Middle East. Even we in America, Israel’s only true friends, underestimate Israel’s security needs due to its small size because we think of Israel as powerful and impenetrable, in part due to its multi-layered anti-missile system, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and Patriot missiles.

Being perceived as fighting above its weight both demographically and geographically has allowed lazy journalists to portray Israel as an invulnerable superpower persecuting its neighbors, and their readers come away with the impression that Israel can take the risks nations with a much larger land mass could. 

As proof of the international prejudice against Israel, which didn’t begin on October 7, some 69% of worldwide protests in the first week after October 7 were against Israel, even before it started its ground operation. Three months later, according to the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), there have been 7,557 protests against Israel since October 10, and only 602 protests in favour of Israel. Small nations that are hated have no margin for error.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a pro-Israel American think tank based in Washington, D.C., focused on the foreign policy of the United States in the Near East.

The Washington Institute’s executive director Robert Satloff commented on the feasibility of the Biden administration’s current diplomatic plans in the region, based in part on what local officials said during his recent group trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the PA: -

“One cannot but be moved by the enormity and depth of the human tragedy, among Israelis and Palestinians alike.

In private, Arab states are rooting for Israel to destroy Hamas—one senior Arab official even said, “Israel is fighting for us in Gaza, and if it wins, it will succeed in defeating an Iranian proxy for the first time in forty years.” But Arab states are focused on their own security and their own interests and are either unwilling or unable to play much of a role in shaping the outcome in Gaza or helping fill the vacuum that will be left by the Hamas defeat they all privately say they want.

By and large, Arab states would like to roll the clock back to October 6, except on one point: they all face domestic political urgency because of mass sympathy for the Palestinians and Al Jazeera-fueled outrage against Israel, which has caused them to channel energy into producing some tangible progress on the goal of Palestinian statehood, energy that wasn’t there on October 7. It’s not readily apparent that this emerges from the people of Gaza, who surely have other things on their mind; it is a requirement of postwar diplomacy that is only connected to the war by the upsurge in popular affinity for the plight of the Palestinians.”

The countdown to Ramadan has already begun. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir will not be permitted to bar Arab Israelis from praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan, Israel’s war cabinet has ruled. This would effectively sideline Ben Gvir, who said  in mid-February that Palestinian residents of the West Bank should be barred from attending prayers at the El-Aqsa Mosque  during Ramadan. Ben Gvir is also reported to have sought to limit Arab Israeli visits.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank to march to Al-Aqsa Mosque to pray on the first day of Ramadan on March 10. If it’s a one day event maybe it will be uneventful.

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

29^th of February, 2024.