Over the weekend.

 

I was wrong! My gut-feeling was that Iran would be content with seizing an Israeli-linked container ship in the Gulf of Oman in lieu of a direct reprisal for the attack on Iran’s consular building in Damascus on April 1.

Richard Haass, one of America’s leading foreign policy strategists, believes Tehran’s weekend attack has thrown Israel “the lifeline of lifelines.” It seems that for the time being, at least, Israel is no longer regarded as a pariah state.

Like many Americans, Richard Haass is still trying to understand why Iran decided to attack Israel directly with a barrage of hundreds of missiles and UAVs, most of which were intercepted. Haass believes Iran has miscalculated and will come to regret its decision to shift from its longtime strategy of using proxy forces to attack Israel. Instead, Iran chose to target mainly Israel’s urban centres. Consequently, the Iranian attack has evoked empathy and support for Israel.

Middle East analyst and US foreign policy expert Aaron David Miller said in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) -

“Israel cannot allow this to go unchallenged, but all-out war is not inevitable.

Israeli retaliation against Iran is likely at some point but it will have to be carefully choreographed so as not to spark a major regional war which wouldn't be in Israel's interests.

Even though the Iranian strikes caused very little damage, a new precedent was set, a new threshold was crossed, new rules were established.”

Miller, a former advisor to both Republican and Democratic US secretaries of state, said the precise timing, nature and scale of an Israeli counterstrike is "impossible to predict," but suggested it would be aimed at "conventional military facilities."

According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California and an expert on Iran’s military, Iran has one of the largest ballistic missiles and UAV arsenals in the Middle East.

It includes cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km.

According to U.S. estimates, Iran has over 3,000 heavy ballistic missiles like those launched against Israel, and has significantly improved their accuracy over the past decade.

Iran has at least nine types of missiles able to travel the 1,000-kilometre distance to Israel at a speed of 3 kilometres per second; The IDF's multilayered aerial defences have the proven ability to respond but no defence system is foolproof.

The Iranians don’t hide these weapons, they proudly display them during annual military parades. The country also hopes to turn the production of UAVs into a major export business. Currently, Iran's UAVs are being used by Russia in the war in Ukraine and have also seen action in Sudan.

I want to add a brief margin note here – The poor performance of Iran’s missiles and UAVs last weekend certainly won’t help promote its UAV sales.

The usually reliable Wall Street Journal quoted an unnamed source, claiming that "about half of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran were not launched properly or crashed before reaching their destination." Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles during its attack on Israel, and only about half of them were successfully intercepted. The rest failed for technical reasons.

Let’s return to the main text: -

 

Although the sale of the Arrow-3 missile defence system to Germany, (valued at approximately $3.6 billion) was concluded last November, it will likely arouse interest among other potential customers. It’s reasonable to suppose that the unprecedented success of Israeli air defence systems during the Iranian offensive last weekend will help to promote additional sales.

The operation involved the air defence forces of the US, the UK, France, and Jordan. The bulk of the interceptions were carried out by Israel's multi-layered air defence system, which includes the Arrow 3 to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, Arrow 2 to intercept ballistic missiles within the atmosphere, David's Sling to intercept advanced short-and medium-range threats, and Iron Dome for short-range threats.

While the US, Britain and France are military allies of Israel, Jordan’s involvement was a dramatic show of support from Amman.

Understandably, Jordan downplayed the part it played in the multi-national defence against the Iranian offensive. Reuters quoted a Jordanian cabinet statement, casually remarking that, “Some ‘flying objects’ that entered its airspace on Saturday night were intercepted to ensure the safety of its citizens. "Some shrapnel fell in multiple places during that time without causing any significant damage or any injuries," it added.
At this juncture it’s pertinent to note that- Israel has a vested interest in propping-up the Hashemite kingdom whenever it is threatened, though not entirely for altruistic reasons. Let’s say, undeclared, but mutually beneficial motivations. 

Now regarding the timing of the Iranian offensive. A UAV (drone) flies slowly. A missile does not. Thus, Iran had to synchronise its attack, launching its larger number of UAVs hours before its faster-flying ballistic missiles. The United States has access to Iraqi air space—both for missile defence and for overflight of fighters—and Jordan has given the United States access for operations in Syria in recent years. The result is that as Iran prepared to attack, the United States could fly along its border and shoot down UAVs in large numbers. The same is true in Jordan. Thus, the UAV threat was largely negated, which allowed for Israeli and American missile defence systems to destroy operational Iranian missiles as far out as Iraq and as close in as Jordan.

Iran's massive missile attack overnight between Saturday and Sunday on Israel was stopped largely by Israel's sophisticated defence systems. It obviously costs a lot of money, and the question, among others that arises the next morning, is how much?  Brig. Gen. Reem Aminoach, former financial advisor to the IDF chief of staff, tried to estimate. "The defence tonight was on the order of more than a quarter of a billion dollars, “he said.

"If we're talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes - then add up the costs - $3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David's Sling, such and such costs for airplanes.

The US and Israel had been bracing for an attack for days after Iran said it would retaliate for the alleged Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus.  

The Pentagon said its forces intercepted “dozens of missiles” and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen that were headed toward Israel.

US military forces, operating from undisclosed bases in the region, shot down a number of Iranian drones in Sweida and Deraa provinces in southern Syria near the Jordanian border.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari confirmed on Sunday morning that France was also involved in Israel’s defence, though he said he did not have exact details on whether French jets had shot down any of the missiles launched by Iran.

US President Joe Biden said Saturday that US forces helped take down “nearly all” the drones and missiles fired by Iran at Israel.

At this stage I’m not sure which military took down what, or whether it really matters.

After reading numerous news media reports on the Iranian attack and speculations regarding its aftermath, it’s clear that the last word on this topic hasn’t been written yet. The classified material will probably be locked up for decades. In the meantime, extant material will suffice for a number of doctoral dissertations.

Maybe a little peeved at being left out of the regional military action, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent his foreign minister to conduct a bit of backdoor diplomacy.

Turkey does not want further escalation of tension in the region after Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told his Iranian counterpart in a phone call on Sunday. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Fidan that its "retaliatory operation" against Israel had ended, adding that Iran would not launch a new operation unless it was attacked.

Maybe not the last word, but a good summing-up was provided by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday. “Israel has shown that it is strong and could defend itself”. ... "Iran is isolated with its aggressive behaviour with which it wants to destabilise an entire region"... Baerbock called on Iran to forgo further attacks including via proxies as a regional escalation would have incalculable consequences.

 

As I write millions of Jews all over the world are preparing to celebrate Pesach/Passover. The oldest festival in the Hebrew calendar.

 

Chag Pesach sameach.

 

Beni

 

18th of April, 2024.