On
Monday last week Reuters reported that plans to attack Rafah would be
shelved in favour of a "sustained period of calm" if a ceasefire
agreement between Hamas and Israeli was reached. Days earlier, Israel's Foreign
Minister Israel Katz told Israeli TV Channel 12 that "if there will be a
deal, we will suspend the [Rafah] operation.”
However, on Tuesday the prime minister insisted that the war would
continue until Israel had achieved all of its objectives in Rafah. In order to
avoid any misunderstanding, Netanyahu said he
would invade Rafah "with or without" a deal, further confirming that
he is prioritising his political survival. Now, regarding the ongoing hostage
talks, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller pushed back on the claim
made by Hamas on Monday that it had accepted the truce proposal that was on the
table. Israel had agreed to what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described
as a “generous” hostage deal proposal late last month,” Miller began. “That’s
the offer that was on the table.” “Hamas seemed to make clear in their public statements that they
accepted that offer yesterday. That is not what they did. They responded with…
a counter-proposal, and we’re working through the details of that now,” he
said, noting that CIA chief Bill Burns is in Cairo along with delegations from
Israel, Hamas and Qatar.
Tamir
Hayman, Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies
(INSS) at Tel Aviv University, clarified some of the misconceptions regarding
the IDF incursion in Rafah this week. I’m mentioning his analysis because Maj.
Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman is eminently qualified to proffer his opinion.
However, in order to include other opinions, I’ll restrict my comments to
Hayman’s opening remarks: -
“I
would like to put in order what seems to be contradictory: an unnecessary delay
and frankly, for the first time in a month, an Israeli initiative that might
lead us to the end of the war.
Hamas
has apparently agreed to the offer. However, this is a fundamentally different
proposal than the one Israel agreed to. There are two main points of
contention: The end of the war and the identity of the prisoners who are
serving life sentences and will be released as part of the deal. On the first
issue, Israel finds the mediators’ proposal acceptable because the phrase ‘End
of the war’ is not mentioned. The phrase in the proposal ‘cessation of activity’
is vague, and it allows flexibility for renewing the war in the future, should
Israel choose to do so. The catch is in the second issue, which is completely
unacceptable. Namely, Israel will waive
the right to oppose the decision about the Palestinian prisoners to be released.”
On
a number of occasions, I have mentioned Col. Richard Kemp, the former commander
of British forces in Afghanistan and an expert on warfare. Kemp claims that the
IDF in Gaza ‘did more to safeguard the rights of civilians in a combat zone
than any other army in the history of warfare.
In
an op-ed he wrote for the UK news website The Telegraph Kemp
said - ” Hamas’s agreement on
Monday to a ceasefire deal that was never on the table was yet
another ruse to buy time and build international pressure to halt a major
IDF operation in Rafah. It was a sign of the terrorists’ desperation to prevent
the destruction of their final stronghold. An IDF move into Rafah has been
delayed far too long. It is the result of months of fruitless negotiations over the release of hostages that never showed any sign of materialising. Yet Israel had
little option than to play along while even the smallest glimmer of hope
existed.
The
delay was also brought about by unbearable pressure from the US and other
Israeli allies, with Biden repeatedly forbidding an attack on Rafah without
what he called a ‘credible and executable plan’ to protect or evacuate the
civilian population there. Similar demands were recently parroted by Lord
Cameron during a visit to Jerusalem. No plan the IDF drew up ever met Biden’s
stipulations, but then no plan could have done so if his real intention was to
block the final destruction of Hamas amid growing concerns about adverse
effects on his own electoral prospects. Of course, one credible plan would have
been to allow civilians to take temporary refuge through the Egyptian border
into Sinai. Biden could have brought that about by pushing Cairo to agree but
neither he nor any other international leader ever even raised a finger to do
so. That unforgivable failure, which played right into Hamas’s hands, has
contributed to many of the civilian deaths during this war and will likely lead
to many more.
The IDF has been making preliminary moves against Rafah on the
ground and from the air. Quite rightly, Jerusalem has not signalled its
immediate intentions. Those may be to shape the battlefield for future
large-scale operations, including spurring the civilian population to evacuate
Rafah to designated humanitarian zones and adding pressure on Hamas to free the
hostages. Nor is it impossible that an apparently inevitable push into Rafah
might impel elements of the Hamas leadership to make good their escape from
Gaza while they still can. After all, they have witnessed the collapse of every
one of their formed fighting units as the IDF advanced through the rest of Gaza.
Whether this turns out to be a limited
operation or something more sustained, Israel is going to have to deal with
Hamas by an offensive in Rafah if it is to achieve its goal of dismantling the
terrorist threat to its citizens. One thing we can be sure of is that the US
and other Western countries will continue to browbeat Israel not to do so and
instead to end the war.
These
countries will be pushed further into acting against Israel by two separate
phenomena. First, Iran will try to protect its proxies in Gaza by again
stepping up aggression from its militant networks in the region. That in turn
will raise renewed trepidation in our capitals about escalation and wider
conflict. Second, expect demonstrations on university campuses and in
the streets to intensify even further. The impact of Gaza-related agitation on
some recent local elections in Britain will be fresh in the minds of our
politicians. Rishi Sunak says he’s ‘deeply concerned’ about the prospects of a
military incursion into Rafah and according to Keir Starmer it ‘must not go
ahead’.
Biden’s
trepidation over widespread protests in an election year is only too clear. As
the IDF moved against Rafah yesterday, the Biden administration continued its
public opposition to Israel’s very objectives in Gaza, with White House
spokesman John Kirby saying: “You’re not going to eliminate an ideology through
military operations”. This tired mantra is a false argument against pretty much
any military solution to any aggressor. Why did the US fight against Isis,
which represents the same ideology as Hamas? Why is Ukraine bothering to resist
the military manifestation of Putin’s ideology?
It
shouldn’t need saying that it is absolutely vital for Israel to eliminate
Hamas’s capability to continue translating its twisted ideology into physical
violence. That means their physical destruction in Rafah. Israel must push on
with its plans and not buckle to international pressure, no matter how great.
Failure to do so would amount to nothing less than strategic defeat.”
Concurrently, a
number of international news sites reported that the IDF has begun evacuating
civilians from eastern Rafah to a new expanded humanitarian zone
which includes al-Mawasi and parts of Khan Yunis and central Gaza. The IDF confirmed
on Monday morning that the evacuation comes ahead of planned IDF
operations in the Rafah area.
The new
humanitarian zone includes field hospitals, tents, and increased provisions of
food, water, medicine, and other supplies.
Additionally,
the IDF is working in cooperation with organisations and several countries to
allow an increase of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
To that effect,
the IDF is calling on the population currently under Hamas control to evacuate
temporarily from the eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah to the new zone. The
evacuation will be conducted in a phased manner in accordance with continuing
situation assessments.
The call to
evacuate is being made through leaflets, text messages, phone calls, and
statements in Arabic.
Shortly after
the IDF announcement, Palestinian media reported that the IDF began dropping
leaflets over Rafah informing civilians about the evacuation. The leaflets
warned that Gaza City is still off limits and considered a "dangerous
combat zone" and that it is "forbidden to approach the eastern and
southern security fence."
Witnesses on the
ground told Reuters on Monday morning that some families had begun
evacuating the area under the evacuation order.
The General Authority for
Crossings and Borders in Gaza said that the Rafah crossing was still operating
as usual, after some reports by Arabic media stated that the crossing was
closed.
The evacuation was for a limited
area as of Monday, including an area where about 100,000 people are believed to
be staying at the moment, according to Israeli news media.
The cabinet
decided on the evacuation on Sunday night, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant
informing US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin about the decision overnight.
During the
discussion, Gallant also informed Austin about the rocket barrage fired at
Kerem Shalom. The defence minister detailed the efforts the government made
toward trying to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal, insisting that, at
this stage, Hamas was refusing all proposals.
Gallant stressed
during the conversation that "there was no choice left, and this meant the
start of the Israeli operation in Rafah." Gallant thanked Austin for the
close cooperation between Israel and the US.
A readout of the
call published by the US Defence Department overnight said that the two
discussed the ongoing hostage negotiations, humanitarian aid efforts, and
Rafah. Austin expressed his condolences for the IDF soldiers killed in the
rocket attack on Kerem Shalom and reaffirmed his commitment to the unconditional
return of all the hostages.
Austin stressed
that any potential military operation in Rafah needed to include a
"credible plan to evacuate Palestinian civilians and maintain the flow of
humanitarian aid."
According to the
Israel public broadcasting corporation (KAN), Israel told Egypt about the
evacuation as well and stressed that this is only to prepare for a limited
operation in the Rafah area.
According
to a report in The Economist “When Hamas announced, on the evening
of May 6th, that it had agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, the mood in Rafah
turned jubilant. Thousands of people cheered and danced in the streets of
Gaza’s southernmost city, hopeful that there might soon be an end to the
seven-month war that has devastated the Palestinian enclave. The celebrations
were premature. Israeli officials said there were problems with the proposed
agreement—that it was different from the earlier text that they had agreed to
last month (foreign diplomats insisted the changes were minor). The next
morning a column of Israeli tanks rumbled along the Philadelphi corridor, a
strip of land along Egypt’s border with Gaza, and seized the Rafah crossing,
the main entry point for humanitarian aid throughout much of the war.
There’s
a good measure of naiveté in the claims made by the foreign diplomats cited
above.
Deutsche Welle (DW)
reported that in April, the IDF said it had purchased 40,000 tents to prepare for
evacuation ahead of its planned ground offensive.
According
to a report in The Wall
Street Journal, “The IDF plans to ‘proceed in phases’ evacuating
neighbourhoods in advance before moving onto new areas.
Israel believes Rafah is the last stronghold of
Hamas,
Israel has claimed that up to four of the 24
Hamas brigades are still hiding in or under Rafah. Hamas has
been weakened by seven months of fighting with Israel but hasn't been defeated
militarily.”
An IDF spokesperson said the supply of humanitarian
aid to the local population would continue during the evacuation operation. The
plan is to bring the aid supplies to the Gaza Strip via the Israeli port of
Ashdod, which is some 30 kilometres to the north.
Meanwhile, the US continues to press for a
peaceful solution. According to media reports, CIA Director William Burns is
still hoping for a deal.
Nevertheless, in what appears to
be a change of heart, the Biden administration appeared to signal its initial
approval of the Rafah incursion launched by Israel early Tuesday morning to
take over the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.
Spokespeople for the administration
said the goals of the operation were legitimate, but warned that this
assessment could change if the offensive expands in scope and leads to an
extended hampering of aid shipments into Gaza.
“What we’ve been told by our
Israeli counterparts is that this operation last night was limited, and
designed to prevent Hamas’s ability to smuggle weapons and funds into Gaza,”
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in
a briefing.
“This does appear to be a
limited operation so far, but it does to a great extent depend on what comes
next,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a separate
briefing.
Judging by what I have read and heard, the Rafah
incursion is proceeding according to plan and will end well.
Have a good weekend.
Beni,
9th of May, 2024.
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