Back to square one.

 

My weekly blog/letter/post has never been written “off the cuff”.  In fact, it’s a time-consuming occupation, often fraught with difficulties. Occasionally, an unexpected event forces me to revise everything I have written. Admittedly, it’s frustrating, but having to go back to ‘square one’ has its benefits. The second rendition is always better and the extra effort tends to ward off senility and all that comes with it.

I’ll begin with an editorial posted in The Economist last week -

“The war in Gaza may topple Hamas without making Israel safer

It will end up even more deeply mired in the conflict that is the main threat to its security.”

 “I wish I could say we have a very detailed plan,” an Israeli army officer admitted referring to the chaotic days following Hamas’s brutal assault on southern Israel on October 7. It was clear from the outset of the war in Gaza, now six months old, that Israel’s two main goals—to eliminate Hamas and to free the hostages—were at odds. It was also clear that invading the territory, in which 2.2m people live cheek by jowl and under which Hamas had built a labyrinth of fortified tunnels to help it withstand an attack, was going to be immensely difficult. And there was always the risk that war in Gaza would spiral into a bigger conflict.

It is possible to look at this unpromising starting point and conclude that Israel’s invasion of Gaza has not gone badly—and many Israelis take just that view. After all, Hamas’s fighting capacity has been massively reduced, with little in the way of Israeli casualties*. Some of the hostages have been released and negotiations continue in an attempt to free the remainder. And all the while, there has been no regional conflagration, nor even much unrest in the West Bank or among Israeli Arabs.

*My comment- Israelis are very sensitive regarding war casualties

In Israeli culture, getting a ‘knock on the door’ has become code for receiving the worst possible news. The thought of someone knocking on your door is enough to set you off thinking about the pain and fear that come after a loved one has been killed.

That knock on the door is accompanied by a designated IDF team that commiserates with the bereaved family at their time of dire need.

I recall during WW2 when two of my cousins were killed in battle, one in Italy and his brother in France. My aunt and uncle were notified by an official telegram pushed under their front door.  

There are other casualties of the Gaza war that survived the trauma.

Returned hostage Amit Soussana provided The New York Times with a first in-depth interview about the sexual violence and torture she went through in Gaza, following her abduction during the Hamas-led October 7 attack on southern Israel.

During eight hours of interviews with The New York Times, in mid-March, Soussana provided the most in-depth view into her life and the horrors she experienced since October 7. The report included interviews with doctors who treated the former hostage as soon as she returned from Gaza, as well as the medical records, videos, text messages and photographs.

The UN sent its own team to investigate the claims, and in a report spanning 24 pages, it was stated that there are "reasonable grounds to believe" that Hamas terrorists committed sexual violence at multiple locations during the assault, as well as credible information indicating other forms of sexual violence, such as genital mutilation and sexualized torture.

Reuters also quoted from the report in the NYT adding that “Amit Soussana, 40, was taken hostage on Oct.7 from Kibbutz Kfar Aza. Security camera footage showed her fighting back against her abductors. She said that around Oct. 24th she was attacked by the man guarding her after washing in the bathroom. Soussana said the guard, who called himself Muhammad, put a gun to her forehead, beat her and dragged her to a child's bedroom. "Then he, with the gun pointed at me, forced me to commit a sexual act on him," Soussana said in the interview.

 After paging down through Aljazeera’s website, I found a brief refence to Amit Soussana’s testimony – “Military spokesman Daniel Hagari said Amit Soussana’s testimony published on Tuesday by The New York Times was a wake-up call to the world to act, to do everything and pressure Hamas, to free our hostages”.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog wrote on X that “the whole world has a moral duty to stand with Amit – and all the victims – in condemning Hamas’s brutal terror, and in demanding the immediate return of all the hostages”.

Aljazeera added “Hamas has denied its fighters committed acts of sexual violence.”

 

Let’s turn a page to something entirely different, a snippet of news from ‘The Land of the Long White Cloud’- New Zealand.

 As a kind of ex-pat, I receive news about New Zealand through a subscription to The Bulletin published by Spinoff, a New Zealand website covering pop culture, politics and social life through features, criticism, interviews, videos and podcasts. Most of the content is as dull as dishwater and wouldn’t warrant a mention in Israel.

Despite our wars and incompetent government, Israel ranked as the second happiest country for those under 30, with a score of 7.667, according to the World Happiness Report.

The country outperforms the average in life satisfaction, social connections, and health, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Better Life Index. The life expectancy at birth is 83 years, two years higher than the OECD average of 81.

Israel is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world and includes cut diamonds and pharmaceuticals among its major exports, according to the U.S. News and World Report.

While the cost of living in Israel is, on average, only 7.9% lower than in the United States, rent is, on average, 30% lower than in America, according to Numbeo. (Cost of living website)

In the Middle East and Central Asia, Israel ranked at fifth place, leads the region’s happiness levels, dropping one spot since 2023.

The report notes that Gallup’s survey in Israel occurred after October 7, but before much of the subsequent warfare. Thus, life evaluations fell by 0.9 for the year, of which only one-third impacted their final score.

Understandably, the survey in Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) (ranked 103rd globally) took place earlier in the year, before October 7.

In the Happiness Rankings by Country, Age 60 and up New Zealand was ranked in fifth place slightly below Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland.

Israel was listed in thirteenth place.

In the Happiness Rankings by Country, Ages 45-59, Israel was ranked in seventh place slightly below the same Nordic countries and New Zealand a notch lower in thirteenth place.

Personally, I’m happy where I am and wouldn’t prefer to be any place else.

Have a good weekend.

Beni,

29th of March, 2024

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing new under the sun.

 

If some reason you missed my weekly post you can view it by accessing my blog site -

https://benisisraelinewsletter.blogspot.com/

 

I appreciate your feedback, comments etc.,

First of all, I want to quote from- 

Ecclesiastes 1-9 King James version “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done, is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun.”

On April 7, 2011, I wrote -

“I’ve got Gaza on my mind!

Last week three Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip when the car they were travelling in was strafed by an IAF jet fighter. A few days later two Palestinians were shot by an Israeli patrol near the Gaza security fence.

Given the bare and incomplete details of these two incidents a casual observer might be tempted to assume that Israel is engaged in a series of unprovoked attacks on Gaza's helpless citizens.

However, If I mention that the three men in the car were members of the Hamas military wing en-route to kidnap Israeli tourists in Sinai, it's clear that their timely demise came not a moment too soon.

Likewise, the two men shot by the security fence were also Hamas operatives. trying to set roadside bombs near the border.”

Well, it seems that Gaza will engage our attention for quite a while to come.

In a lighter vein I’ll begin with an item listed under Trivia-

Stewart Island is New Zealand’s third largest Island, situated 30 kilometres south of the South Island across the Foveaux Strait. Its total land mass amounts to 1,680 square kilometres. By comparison, the Gaza Strip is about 365 square kilometres. However, 85% of Stewart Island is National Park, leaving no more than 15%, a mere 252 sq. Km for any future settlement. But, if need be, I’m sure more of the park land can be set aside for urban settlement. By now you have probably guessed where I am heading. Bear with me a bit, because I want to add an important detail. I vaguely recall reading several years ago something about a debate in New Zealand’s parliament concerning Stewart Island’s population crisis – (total population, about 450 +-). One MP suggested inviting Jews to settle there. A fellow lawmaker reminded him that there is a Jewish state called Israel.

Nevertheless, let’s consider what Stewart Island has to offer-

“Most people come to the island for the hiking and birdwatching. The island has just 28km of road, but 280km of walking tracks suited to short walks, day walks and multi-day hikes.

Stewart Island is a haven for the brown kiwi, which outnumber humans on the island and are active day and night. Blue penguins and the rare yellow-eyed penguins waddle among the rocks. Offshore on Ulva Island, you’ll find a predator-free bird sanctuary with dozens of native species
The Stewart Islanders are a proud and independent bunch, but they’re friendly too. I wonder how they will take to Palestinian refugees from Gaza and how the Gazans will appreciate the Stewart Islanders’ hospitality and all that natural beauty?  Forget it, just one of my usual facetious comments.

David Brinn is a former managing editor of The Jerusalem Post. He settled in Israel in 1985 and has worked in many capacities at the Post since 1990.

Here’s an extract of some of the things he wrote in his op-ed on

March 18, 2024: -

“It’s time to face reality

Israel has already won the war on the battlefield. Hamas is a shell of its former self. But Israel is suffering a terrible loss on the battlefield of diplomacy.

The issue of whether we went overboard in our assault on Hamas or held back too much – both views are held in Israel – but it’s no longer a relevant question. That’s because Israel has lost the support of the world in its effort to secure its southern border, free the more than 130 hostages held alive or dead in Gaza, and eradicate Hamas.

It no longer matters if we prove that Hamas is doctoring the numbers of civilian fatalities, or that the army has the lowest civilian-to-terrorist ratio of fatalities in any war.

 It no longer matters if the IDF continues to uncover Hamas strongholds in hospitals or schools, or tunnels under cemeteries.

The world is no longer concerned that Hamas is still holding all those hostages after more than 160 days

And it no longer matters that Hezbollah has declared war on Israel and 200,000 Israelis are displaced in the North.

The world no longer cares, and they want the war to end. We lost Europe long ago and we’ve now lost Schumer, with Biden quickly following.

An offensive in Rafah – with a likely spike in civilian deaths – will propel that feeling to the extreme.

The  news media presenters are no longer interested in stories about Israel – only about Gaza, where the F (famine) word is bandied about by everyone from the UN to the Vatican.

Despite launching this totally justified war, there is now no way that Israel can emerge unscathed in its stature in the international community.

There is a general agreement around the world that, despite what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeats about ‘total victory,’ no matter how much Israel battles on, how many Hamas commanders are killed, and how much the terror infrastructure is decimated, the Hamas raison d'être cannot be wiped out.

Israel must now decide what is more important – to save the lives of as many hostages as possible or to continue to go after the remaining Hamas battalions and Sinwar. If we agree to a deal with Hamas, we can still say we gave it our best shot and the 200-plus soldiers who fell in Gaza will not have died in vain.

But at some point – which is now – Israel can’t continue to buck the international community and not risk turning into a pariah state. Our ties with the US are frayed, with EU states belligerent and with international bodies like the UN downright hostile. Being right – which Israel is – doesn’t necessarily mean being smart.”

I’m inclined to agree with him.

Just the same I want to conclude on a festive note!

We are celebrating Purim this week!

Here at Ein Harod, the main Purim celebration is held on Friday night. Most people are happy to celebrate Purim without doubting the historicity of the narrative.

 

‘Chag Purim Sameach’

 

Beni,

 

23rd of March, 2024.

    

The Devil is in the details.

 

If some reason you missed my weekly post you can view it by accessing my blog site -

https://benisisraelinewsletter.blogspot.com/

A piece in the Christian Science Monitor dedicated to the role of women in the IDF warrants more than a passing mention

“As Israel grapples with war and trauma, women’s rights advocates say the conflict may serve as a turning point in society’s views of their roles, especially as soldiers in combat.

Gender has been a central element of the war since it was sparked by the Oct. 7 attack, in which Hamas employed systematic sexual and gender-based violence on a scale unknown in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Women have long been drafted into the IDF, but the majority traditionally have served in administrative, support, or training positions.

In Israel’s pre-Oct. 7 debate over women serving in combat roles in mixed-gender units, resistance was especially strong on the far-right and in some religious establishments.

In a November 2022 poll by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, 53% of Israelis supported women serving in combat roles, with 35% against.

Last week, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum provided the International Criminal Court in The Hague with 1,000 pages of testimony from released hostages and eyewitnesses, along with forensic evidence, alleging torture, gender-based violence, and sexual violence by Hamas.

It was the latest in a campaign by families led by mothers, sisters, and forensics and legal experts to pressure for hostages’ releases and have Hamas’ leadership tried for war crimes.

Leading Israeli women rights and legal experts are assisting the campaign and coordinating with United Nations’ special rapporteurs on torture and sexual violence to build a legal case.  

“My goal is to have Oct. 7 go down in history side by side with those previous cases of weaponizing women and sexual violence in war such as Bosnia, Rwanda, and the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo],” says Ruth Halperin-Kaddari, an expert in gender studies and international law and director of the Rackman Center for the Advancement of the Status of Women at Bar-Ilan University.

As members of the Civil Commission on October 7 Crimes by Hamas Against Women and Children, Professor Halperin-Kaddari and others are documenting crimes and reaching out to experts in gender-based violence used as a tactic in previous wars.

“It is needed for Israeli society at large. I think this recognition is important in terms of recovery from the collective trauma,” she says.

In the past a large part of the opposition to women serving in combat units came from the IDF higher echelon doubting that women were physically capable of fighting as well as men.

Since then, women conscripts and career soldiers have removed all the barriers. Notably In the armoured corps, the airforce and elite combat units.

Recently a woman officer was appointed commander of one the IDF’s main airforce bases. Last but not least, a number women conscripts are training for the gruelling demands required for acceptance in the prestigious General Staff Reconnaissance Unit, more commonly known as Sayeret Matkal.

 A report in The Hill claims President Biden is shifting his tone as Israel’s war against Hamas rages on.

The president announced during the State of the Union address that the United States military will build a floating seaport to enable aid delivery to Gaza, where more than 30,000 Palestinians have died since Israel began its military campaign in October. Hundreds of thousands more face dwindling food and supplies; displaced Palestinians are struggling to feed their children.

The White House has warned Israel against a planned ground and air attack on Rafah in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. U.S. officials have expressed doubt that Israel can develop an effective plan to move the civilian population out of harm’s way ahead of the assault  according to a report  in The Wall Street Journal. 

The looming operation is a potential showdown between the White House and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which sees the assault as vital for the defeat of Hamas

In a Saturday MSNBC interview,  Biden said that an Israeli attack would cross a “red line” and left open the possibility that the U.S. might withhold some types of military assistance to Israel if the operation caused extensive civilian casualties.

“It is a red line, but I am never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical. So, there is no red line I am going to cut off all weapons, so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them,” Biden said “But there’s red lines that if he crosses…You cannot have 30,000 more Palestinians dead.”

A brief margin note - Somewhere I read that on the tripwire of a ‘red line,’ It’s often presidents who trip. Barack Obama drew one for Syria. George W. Bush drew several, for North Korea and Iran. Now President Biden has drawn one for Israel. The hard part is figuring out what to do when they are crossed.

Back to the main text and ‘How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers’ posted in Tablet magazine by Abraham Wyner, Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Faculty Co-Director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.

Digging into why the Hamas-compromised Gaza Health Ministry’s casualty numbers are highly suspect. Wyner’s work is digestible, incrementally working through what data are available. Perhaps best of all, he makes no claims as to what the casualty numbers might really be.

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough:

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behaviour of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported.

The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and others in Mosaic online magazine is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of non-combatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centres, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

14th of March, 2024

 

Headlines and deadlines.

 News items tend to have a very short “shelf-life.” Their predetermined expiry date generally condemns them to oblivion.

A case in point is the Al-Rashid Street imbroglio.

A report in The Economist described the incident as follows-

“Early on February 29th death descended on a coastal road in Gaza. As many as 112 people were killed and hundreds more were injured, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, when catastrophe befell an aid convoy of 30 trucks carrying desperately needed food. As with many events in the war between Israel and Hamas, the facts are destined to remain fiercely contested. Nonetheless, this tragedy’s importance will go far beyond the immediate loss of life. The images of hungry people jostling for food illustrate the dearth of aid reaching Gaza. The anarchic circumstances surrounding so many deaths highlight a power vacuum there that no one, least of all Israel, knows how to fill. And another civilian calamity will test America’s appetite for letting the war rumble on.

The incident was in northern Gaza, where the IDF has dominated for months. All agree the deaths occurred after the food convoy had passed an Israeli checkpoint and was surrounded by thousands of hungry civilians. Accounts differ over what happened next. Palestinian eye-witnesses say IDF soldiers fired on the crowd, killing some and sparking a stampede that claimed more lives. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, called it an “ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army”.

A margin note- Claims made by the Hamas-run health ministry, Palestinian eye-witnesses accounts and the comment made by Mahmoud Abbas should be taken with “a large pinch of salt.”  They are predictable, better put as- “My mind is made up. Don’t confuse me with the facts.”

Military theorist Carl von Clausewitz opined, “Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false, and most are uncertain .... In short, most intelligence is false.” Admittedly, when Clausewitz wrote his remarks during the early nineteenth century, intelligence reports were based mostly on messages carried by couriers. Today, Israel’s surveillance coverage is infinitely better equipped to know what is happening on the ground at any given time. Just the same, IDF spokespersons  are reticent, cautious, prior to conducting thorough investigations.

Further to that, an IDF spokesman said, “We have all the material needed to complete an exhaustive investigation, and present the findings.”  He dismissed as ‘baseless’ accusations of causing intentional harm to Palestinians looting the convoy.

IDF Spokesman Rear-Admiral Daniel Hagari said on Saturday night that Israel will present its findings from last Thursday’s deadly melee, during which more than 100 Palestinians were reported killed and hundreds more wounded while swarming aid trucks in Gaza City.

Hamas accused Israeli forces of shooting at the crowd of thousands, while the IDF says many of the casualties were trampled in a chaotic crush for the food aid, and that its forces only fired at a few individuals who rushed toward them in a threatening manner.

“We are investigating this incident, we have all the footage we need to complete an exhaustive investigation and present the findings,” Hagari said at an evening press conference.

Foreign news media outlets invariably quote Palestinian sources. For example, Associated Press and AFP quoted witnesses saying that Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd of hungry Palestinians pulling boxes of flour and canned food off aid trucks, scattering the crowd. When the shooting stopped, one witness said, the Palestinians returned to the trucks and the soldiers opened fire again. However, a Palestinian witness told the BBC that most of the people killed had been run over by trucks. A hospital worker said there were not enough ambulances for the casualties, and some were brought to hospital on donkey carts.

A report in The Guardian said, “The Israeli version of events changed over the course of the day. The first account given by the IDF was that the victims had died in a stampede in which people had been “killed and injured from pushing, trampling and being run over by the trucks. Later, Israeli military officials briefed the Guardian and other news outlets stating that their forces had only opened fire on a crowd that threatened them after the aid convoy had moved on, and that most of the casualties were caused earlier by the stampede or people being knocked down. Israeli officials also questioned the death toll from Palestinian authorities.

A spokesperson for António Guterres said the UN secretary general was “appalled by the tragic human toll of the conflict” in Gaza  and called for an investigation of the incident. “We don’t know exactly what happened but whether people were shot and died as a result of Israeli gunfire, whether they were crushed by a crowd, whether they were run over by trucks. These are all acts of violence, in a sense, due to this conflict,” said the spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric.

What have been the consequences and international reaction?

Hamas has suggested that the killings could lead them to suspend talks on a release of their hostages. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan accused Israel of targeting civilians.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Macron added in a post on X expressing: “Deep indignation at the images coming from Gaza where civilians have been targeted by Israeli soldiers. I express my strongest condemnation of these shootings and call for truth, justice, and respect for international law.”

Additional clarification was provided to the UK's Channel 4 News, by IDF spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner who said a "mob stormed the convoy bringing it at some stage to a halt.

"The tanks that were there to secure the convoy saw the Gazans being trampled and cautiously tried to disperse the mob with a few warning shots."

In a statement posted later Chief IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari added:

“The tank commander decided to retreat to avoid harming civilians and "they were backing up securely, not shooting at the mob".

At an earlier interview on CNN the Israeli prime minister's special adviser, Mark Regev, said Israel had not been involved directly in any way.

He said the IDF had opened fire in a separate incident not related to the food convoy

Mark Regev added: "In the incident of the truck being swarmed there was gunfire, that was Palestinian armed groups. We don't know if it was Hamas or others."

Leaders around the world have demanded an investigation into what happened.

It follows concerns raised on Tuesday by a senior UN official who warned that more than half a million people across the Gaza Strip faced catastrophic levels of food insecurity.

Update: The IDF said on 3 March that an initial review had confirmed that "the majority of Palestinians were killed or injured as a result of the stampede."

It added that "warning shots" had been fired "to disperse the stampede" and that after Israeli forces started pulling back, "several looters approached our forces and posed an immediate threat to them."

Only then did the IDF troops fire warning shots in the air followed by fire directed at the lower body limbs of the threatening looters. The whole defensive action was conducted in accordance with the IDF’s “Rules of engagement.”

I hasten to add that once the “fog of war” clears the Gaza War will be investigated, without coverups, or any whitewashing. Independent NGO’s and our ‘free-press’ guarantee absolute accountability.

At this juncture I’m adding a seemingly unrelated topic, however in this region no topic is truly ‘stand-alone.’

Jordan has asked Israel to supply it with more water! 

Or, as Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies put it succinctly on Monday, “Jordan is asking for more water after trashing the Israelis for nearly 5 months, and downplaying 10/7. This comes after years of vitriol to placate its majority Palestinian population. Israel needs to help. Jordan’s stability is crucial. But a different contract is needed.”

The peace agreement is also of primary strategic importance to Jordan, since the relationship with Israel – and the intelligence and security cooperation that comes with it – serve as protection for the Hashemite Kingdom against hostile powers taking it over from east or north. Furthermore, it is a key factor in massive US aid that the country receives. Both countries need each other. But this is something that Jordanian officials seem to forget in their often vitriolic condemnations of Israel at home and around the world. Jordan’s request now to renew the water deal is a good time for Jerusalem to remind the Jordanians that Israel also has expectations.

Israel, as it considers whether to renew the water deal, has some leverage, and should impress upon the Jordanians that – as it considers sending more water from the Kinneret to faucets in Amman – it expects its peace partner to the east to work this year to douse flames on the Temple Mount and not to fan them by playing into the hands of Hamas and others who will try to ignite a conflagration by saying, as they do every year, “Al-Aqsa is in danger.”

Some Middle East affaires analysts regard the Al-Aqsa threat, namely the Ramadan deadline next Sunday, as a matter that concerns both Israel and the Arabs. Like a double-edged sword it “cuts both ways.”

 

Beni,

 7^th of March, 2024.

 

Ramadan.

 

 Worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque

A casual observer unfamiliar with the mind-boggling complexity of our region, would probably be confused by the conflicting Palestinian-Israeli narratives.

Furthermore, images of displaced Gazans moving (mostly on foot) north and south are disconcerting to say the least, even for many people more familiar with the Near-East arena. The adage, ‘A picture is worth a thousand words,’ is especially apt in this instance.

Admittedly, sympathy for the displaced people in Gaza should take into account that many of them still support Hamas. I base this assumption on a relatively recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR).

It’s difficult to assess how much of this support for Hamas stems from the incidence of casualties among innocent bystanders. Foreign news media outlets invariably cite figures supplied by Gaza’s health ministry and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). In their reporting they rarely mention that both are subservient to Hamas.

On a number of occasions, I have mentioned Colonel Richard Kemp, a retired British army officer, who claims the IDF is one of the most moral armies in the world. Kemp is often verbally attacked by critics of Israel, especially regarding the ‘innocent bystander casualties’ issue.

Responding to critics he said “Of course innocent civilians were killed. War is chaos and full of mistakes. There have been mistakes by the British, American and other forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq, many of which can be put down to human error. But mistakes are not war crimes.

More than anything, the civilian casualties were a consequence of Hamas’ way of fighting. Hamas deliberately uses civilians as human shields.” ….” The IDF has done more to safeguard the rights of civilians in a combat zone than any other army in the history of warfare.”

When foreign policy and defence experts tell Israel it does not need strategic depth, they do not take into account how small Israel is.

One often overlooked aspect of Israel’s predicament vis-à-vis its not-so-nice neighbours, was highlighted by Dr. Eric R. Mandel in an op-ed he wrote for the Jerusalem Post recently. Dr. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report and a contributor to The Hill and The Jerusalem Post. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign policy advisers about the Middle East.

“When foreign policy and defence experts tell Israel it does not need strategic depth, they do not take into account how small Israel is” The total area of the State of Israel is 22,145 sq.km (8,630 sq. miles), of which 21,671 sq. km is land area. Israel is some 420 km in length and about 115 km across at the widest point.

In size it’s much like New Jersey. At 7,354 square miles (19,050 km2), New Jersey is the fifth-smallest state in the union, but with close to 9.4 million residents New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the nation. Most of its problems can be dealt with by local authorities, none of them are defence-related.

Before October 7, Israel’s lack of strategic depth was considered manageable by many Israeli and American political and security experts. After that infamous Saturday morning, the importance of strategic depth has emerged as a profound vulnerability.

“The reason it is essential to grasp Israel’s size is that so many Israeli critics and advocates demanding that Israel return to the indefensible 1967 lines (Green Line, or 1949 Armistice Line) like to portray Israel as a Goliath terrorising the helpless Muslim world. 

They choose to ignore how tiny Israel is when one looks at a map – less than 1% of the land mass of the greater Middle East. Even we in America, Israel’s only true friends, underestimate Israel’s security needs due to its small size because we think of Israel as powerful and impenetrable, in part due to its multi-layered anti-missile system, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and Patriot missiles.

Being perceived as fighting above its weight both demographically and geographically has allowed lazy journalists to portray Israel as an invulnerable superpower persecuting its neighbors, and their readers come away with the impression that Israel can take the risks nations with a much larger land mass could. 

As proof of the international prejudice against Israel, which didn’t begin on October 7, some 69% of worldwide protests in the first week after October 7 were against Israel, even before it started its ground operation. Three months later, according to the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), there have been 7,557 protests against Israel since October 10, and only 602 protests in favour of Israel. Small nations that are hated have no margin for error.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a pro-Israel American think tank based in Washington, D.C., focused on the foreign policy of the United States in the Near East.

The Washington Institute’s executive director Robert Satloff commented on the feasibility of the Biden administration’s current diplomatic plans in the region, based in part on what local officials said during his recent group trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the PA: -

“One cannot but be moved by the enormity and depth of the human tragedy, among Israelis and Palestinians alike.

In private, Arab states are rooting for Israel to destroy Hamas—one senior Arab official even said, “Israel is fighting for us in Gaza, and if it wins, it will succeed in defeating an Iranian proxy for the first time in forty years.” But Arab states are focused on their own security and their own interests and are either unwilling or unable to play much of a role in shaping the outcome in Gaza or helping fill the vacuum that will be left by the Hamas defeat they all privately say they want.

By and large, Arab states would like to roll the clock back to October 6, except on one point: they all face domestic political urgency because of mass sympathy for the Palestinians and Al Jazeera-fueled outrage against Israel, which has caused them to channel energy into producing some tangible progress on the goal of Palestinian statehood, energy that wasn’t there on October 7. It’s not readily apparent that this emerges from the people of Gaza, who surely have other things on their mind; it is a requirement of postwar diplomacy that is only connected to the war by the upsurge in popular affinity for the plight of the Palestinians.”

The countdown to Ramadan has already begun. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir will not be permitted to bar Arab Israelis from praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan, Israel’s war cabinet has ruled. This would effectively sideline Ben Gvir, who said  in mid-February that Palestinian residents of the West Bank should be barred from attending prayers at the El-Aqsa Mosque  during Ramadan. Ben Gvir is also reported to have sought to limit Arab Israeli visits.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank to march to Al-Aqsa Mosque to pray on the first day of Ramadan on March 10. If it’s a one day event maybe it will be uneventful.

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

29^th of February, 2024. 

Water.

 

      The Shafdan water treatment facility. 

By way of introducing this week’s topic I’ll begin with some apt advice from the Book of Proverbs: -

“Rejoice not when thine enemy falleth, and let not thine heart be glad when he stumbleth.”

Proverbs. 24:17

 

When I quoted this text several years ago, someone countered humorously adding a Yiddish saying of undetermined origin -" Rejoice not when your enemy falls, but don't rush to pick him up."                                                                                                         

Napoleon was more brutal - "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

Iran is determined to destroy Israel, however its efforts to “wipe the Jewish state off the map” have been ineffective so far. The money wasted trying to destroy Israel could have been used to improve the wellbeing of the long- suffering Iranian people.

Last summer was the hottest on record, bringing devastating impacts to many global communities. Iran was one of many nations that faced both debilitating heat and the subsequent water stress.

While Iran’s problems received significant media attention this year, water scarcity in the country is not a new problem. For decades, corruption and poor planning have plagued Iranian water policy, with impacts falling upon its increasingly disadvantaged provinces and, ultimately, on its ethnic minorities. Poor water policy also has contributed to an increasing number of cross-border disputes.

These issues that have plagued Iranian water policy throughout its history will continue to pose challenges to its population and exacerbate its national security concerns as domestic and international tensions deepen and the climate crisis progresses.

Furthermore, analysis of the Iranian Ministry of Energy and Meteorology’s data from the past five decades indicates a concerning downward trend in rainfall patterns, portending dire consequences for Iran’s future across various sectors, including population distribution.

Iran’s predicament is further exacerbated by its classification as one of the top three nations experiencing accelerated depletion of fresh water, as outlined in a recent study published in the scientific journal Nature. Unsustainable irrigation practices and the compounding effects of climate change have precipitated a widespread decline in aquifer levels, signalling a distressing trajectory for the nation’s water security.

The convergence of climate-induced rainfall shortages, systemic mismanagement of water resources, and a lack of accountability in policy implementation has precipitated a nationwide ecological crisis. This crisis has not only led to heightened water tensions in various regions but has also sparked a wave of regional protests, often met with harsh repression by military and security forces of the regime.

As Iran grapples with the unfolding water crisis, urgent and decisive action is imperative to mitigate the impending ecological catastrophe and safeguard the nation’s vital water resources for future generations.

At this juncture I think it’s appropriate to compare Iran’s water related crises to those of its self designated arch-enemy Israel.

How did Israel, a country that is more than half desert, frequently hit with drought, and historically cursed by chronic water shortages, become a nation that now produces 20 percent more water than it needs?

Water demand from Israel’s rapidly growing population outpaced the supply and natural replenishment of potable water so much that by 2015, the gap between demand and available natural water supplies reached 1 billion cubic metres (BCM).

Recovering from such a scenario seems highly unlikely, yet Israel managed it by pioneering an unprecedented wealth of technological innovation and infrastructure to prevent the country from drying up.

Nationwide turnaround stories like this are in short supply these days given the momentum of global warming and the world’s unwillingness to scale the solutions needed to thwart its irreversible effects in time.

Some 4 billion people –– two-thirds of the global population — now experience extreme water scarcity for at least one month out of each year due to the climate crisis.

But thanks to its national prioritisation and seven decades of relentless determination, Israel has become a lifeline and source of hope for other water-deprived countries.

Israeli organisations like MASHAV, KKL-JNF, EcoPeace Middle East and the Arava Institute actively disseminate Israel’s expertise, technologies and policy strategies with neighbouring and distant communities suffering from endemic water crises.

Israel’s leadership in sustainable water management began with finding solutions to the country’s first and foremost problem: the uneven distribution of freshwater throughout the country.

The problem became acute after Israel declared its independence in 1948 as waves of new immigrants lacked sufficient water for home consumption and agriculture.

To supply the growing demand, Israel’s national water company Mekorot, began constructing the National Water Carrier.

This water transportation network was designed to pump water from the northern Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) and transfer water from existing regional water projects to central and southern Israel.

But upon its completion in 1964, 80% of the water transported by this system was allocated for agriculture. By 1965, the year following the completion of the National Water Carrier, a novel drip irrigation system was devised, perfected and marketed commercially by “Netafim” in Israel and abroad.

Today, drip irrigation waters 75% of Israel’s crops, but only 5% of farms worldwide currently utilise the technology due to financial barriers.

Despite the transportive advantages of the National Water Carrier and the conservation benefits of drip irrigation, both innovations drew water solely from Israel’s very limited freshwater sources, which were being pumped faster than they could be replenished naturally.

Plus, the share of freshwater designated for agriculture still vastly outweighed the amount allocated for household usage. By the mid-80s, agriculture was using 72% of Israel’s safe water supply.

Israeli engineers realised it’s not just about conserving available freshwater but also taking advantage of water sources previously considered unusable, such as treated municipal wastewater and stormwater.

In 1985, Israel began sending treated, recycled wastewater through its National Water Carrier to agricultural communities, greatly reducing the gap between consumer demand and available water.

This is because wastewater from our sinks, showers and toilets is not dependent upon climate fluctuations or seasonal weather patterns, but rather on population growth and living standards.

By 2015, Israel had managed to treat and recycle 86% of its wastewater for agricultural operations, leading the world in wastewater reclamation. Second to Israel in that same year was Spain, recycling just 17% of its wastewater.

Utilising Israel’s tertiary treatment processes, recycled wastewater is cleaned to near drinking-quality levels before reaching crops to avoid contamination.

The goal is to recycle 95% of wastewater for agriculture by 2025, leaving that much more fresh drinking water for the communities that need it.

With a daily influx of roughly 470,000 cubic metres of raw sewage, the Shafdan treatment facility, Israel’s largest wastewater treatment facility, provides about 140 million cubic metres (MCM) of clean, reclaimed water to Negev desert farms for irrigation annually. In fact, more than 60% of agriculture in the Negev is supplied by Shafdan alone.

In 2002 the government approved the construction of new reverse osmosis plants along its Mediterranean coast. The plan was to build 5 new water-producing plants as fast as possible. The first two plants were completed and operating by 2008. By 2013 a total of four plants were turning seawater into freshwater with the fifth (but certainly not final) Ashdod plant completed in 2015.

This array of 5 drought-inspired plants wasn’t the first time desalination plants were employed in this country. Israel began employing commercial desalination plants along the Dead Sea in the 1970s, and the first reverse osmosis desalination plant opened on the Red Sea in 1970, decades before the worst droughts plagued the country. But the decision to deploy a new array of 5 plants along the Mediterranean meant the government was putting its trust in desalination technology to pull Israel out of drought affliction and toward a future without water scarcity. In an arid country bordering an abundant water source like the Mediterranean, desalination seemed to be a great fit.

Today, Israel gets a whopping 55 percent of its domestic water supply from desalinated seawater and brackish groundwater. Producing 150 million cubic metres annually, Israel’s Sorek desalination plant is the largest in the world! It alone provides 20 percent of the potable water that Israel consumes. In addition, the ‘host” of 5 large desalination plants along the Mediterranean Sea and close to 30 smaller desalination plants filter brackish groundwater throughout the country, mostly in the Negev.

To supplement (and even partially replace) the National Water Carrier, the government has begun building a new National Water System. The new system uses pipelines to connect the new desalination plants with consumers, making it possible for a large sector of Israel’s population to get its water supply from desalination technology.

While Israel’s desalination technology already produces 600 million cubic metres of water a year, more desalination plants are on the way. Given its current trajectory, experts expect that desalination plants will provide 70 percent of Israel’s drinking water by 2050. As the country moves forward as a global leader in recycled wastewater treatment and reverse-osmosis desalination, the future implications of its success are threefold.

First, Israel will need to rethink its approach to water policy. The future of the country is now characterised by water production and potential water abundance, making the new challenge a question of what do with a water surplus. Israel now finds itself considering opportunities to export water.

Second, Israel has now stepped onto the world stage as a leader in water production. The country is the first to really pioneer the concept of the developed world embracing desalination as a solution to water scarcity. Israel now serves as a model for other developed countries pursuing desalination. In fact, as part of the effort to provide drought relief in California, an Israeli company recently built the largest desalination plant in the western hemisphere just north of San Diego.

Finally, Israel’s success with desalination has introduced a potential path to peace in a region historically plagued with harsh geography and political strife in response to water shortage. Removing water scarcity as a source of conflict in the Middle East would be a total game-changer, and Israel’s steps toward doing so are certainly something to applaud.

Thanks to reverse osmosis desalination technology, one of the driest countries on Earth now produces more freshwater than it needs. Today, the Sea of Galilee is fuller, Israeli farms are flourishing, and the Negev desert communities have access to enough freshwater—a sharp contrast to their status following a decade of drought in the early 2000s. Israel now has years of desalination experience under its belt and proves a practical example of how other water-scarce regions of the world can successfully invest in desalination to combat water scarcity.

Consideration of other Israeli water production initiatives, notably the water-from-air tech company “Watergen” deserve more than a passing mention, but not now.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

22^nd of February, 2024.