The Terra Cotta Warriors

For a split second the scene from the square

opposite the prime minister's office brought to mind visions of Qin Shi Huang's "Terra Cotta Warriors." Dozens of life-size photo images of Gilad Shalit pasted on card backings covered the square in motionless array. The ranks and files of cloned Gilads formed a meek backdrop behind the Shalit family friends and supporters, keeping a round-the-clock vigil by Binyamin Netanyahu's bureau.

A few days ago the ball was in our court. For two tense nerve-racking days seven senior cabinet ministers deliberated whether or not this would be the last volley.

For the past three and a half years the negotiations to secure Gilad Shalit's release mediated by Egyptian and German mediators have produced little more than a monotonous lobbing back and forth of proposals and counterproposals.

Admittedly, on occasions it seemed the intercessor (an unnamed German mediator) had managed to bridge the gap between the demands made by Hamas and Israel. However, apart from the intercessor, the separate Hamas and Israeli negotiating teams and the leaders on both sides, nobody really knows what Hamas has demanded in return for the release of Gilad Shalit. Both the local and foreign news media have made wild speculations, supporting them vaguely as "based on reports" or "according to reliable sources."

Israel is demanding the release of one captured soldier, Gilad Shalit.

To a casual observer the Hamas wheeling and dealing to exchange a large number of Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit's release must appear to be very unbalanced. From Hamas' point of view the quid pro quo principle is inconceivable.

The current negotiations are weighted by precedents entrenched in previous prisoner exchanges. Mindful of the price paid in previous deals it's doubtful if a one-for-one barter was ever considered. The pivotal negotiating precedent was fixed twenty five years ago with the conclusion of the "Jibril deal" when three Israeli soldiers held captive in Lebanon were exchanged for 1,150 Palestinian prisoners.

Among the prisoners released, 386 had been sentenced to life imprisonment for killing Israelis.

Six years ago Israel released 435 Arab prisoners and the bodies of 60 Lebanese soldiers in exchange for Israeli businessman Elchanan Tannenbaum and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers captured by Hezbollah on the border between Israel and Lebanon.

In July last year the bodies of Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were returned to Israel in exchange for four Hezbollah prisoners, Samir Kuntar a brutal Palestinian terrorist and the bodies of 200 Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists.

According to rumours Hamas is demanding the release of more than 1000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit. This number is more or less in line with previous exchange rates.

From the start of the negotiations Israel has tried to prevent the release of Palestinian prisoners "with blood on their hands," a term which covers both perpetrators and planners of terrorist attacks in which Israelis were murdered. Since a complete exclusion of this category isn't feasible the Israeli negotiators have tried to restrict their inclusion in the exchange list to almost end-of-term prisoners and a variety of terrorists loosely termed "more likely to be rehabilitated."

The “exile clause” inserted by Israel in the proposed prisoner exchange agreement is intended to make sure the Palestinian terrorists most likely to take up arms again are distanced from Israeli targets.

It is assumed most will be exiled to Gaza and some to other places.

The number of prisoners earmarked for exile is thought to be between 100 and 130.

The seven ministers inner cabinet forum headed by the prime minister decided not to accept the Hamas demands and the ball is now in the opposite court.

The German mediator presented the Israeli counter demands to the Hamas leadership in Gaza before flying home for Christmas. A delegation from Gaza has flown to Damascus to consult with the Hamas in exile leadership there.

Apparently there was no consensus in the inner cabinet. Minister of Defence Barak, Interior Minister Eli Yishai and Intelligence Services Minister Dan Meridor reportedly supported the deal, while Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon and Minister-without-Portfolio Bennie Begin expressed grave reservations over the possibility that terrorists "with blood on their hands" would be released back into Palestinian territory.

Some observers claim the prime minister was vacillating while others claimed he was more inclined towards accepting the deal but feared his opponents would say that Barak is leading him again.

Somewhere in Gaza Gilad Shalit waits and wonders when will he go home.

His family determinedly continues the struggle for his release.

Three months ago I wrote, “The Shalit family's quiet subdued manner, their almost apologetic appeal for help evokes admiration. Noam and Aviva Shalit have stoically accepted many rebuffs and faced repeated disappointments. They are truly the ‘salt of the earth’."

In a statement to the press made at the end of the inner cabinet’s marathon meeting Ehud Barak repeated his “not at any price” axiom. This time he linked it to a widely accepted demand for a change in the principles guiding prisoner exchanges.

Barak traced” the dangerous decline down a slippery slope since the 1985 Jibril deal.” He and others have hinted that the IDF’s code of ethics needs revising in order to establish guidelines for prisoner exchange negotiators in the future.

During breaks in the inner cabinet meetings and perhaps earlier Prime Minister Netanyahu was busy undermining the opposition Kadima party.

Earlier today Kadima’s chairwoman Tzipi Livni accused Netanyahu of trying to split Kadima, currently embroiled in a leadership struggle. Shaul Mofaz a former contender to the post of party chairman continues to rally opposition to Livni from both the Knesset faction and the broader party base. Netanyahu has been trying to woo potential dissidents from Kadima to his Likud party.

However later today in what was supposed to be an overdue routine meeting between the prime minister and the leader of Knesset opposition Netanyahu once again offered Kadima a place in the government coalition. He offered the opposition party a preferred place in the government but he didn't offer ministerial portfolios. Obviously he would be hard put to offer ministerial posts in his already top-heavy cabinet. Just the same, broadening the government would tend to weaken its more radical right wing partners.

it’s reasonable to suppose that Barak would welcome Livni’s “centre party” alongside his Labour party. At this juncture there is plenty of room for speculation most of which is probably wishful thinking. In the meantime Tzipi Livni has promised give the prime minister’s offer serious consideration.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 24^th of December, 2009.