The people in the square.

I have been paging through various articles, editorials and interviews, material I stored away in a virtual folder for this week’s letter. Now I am about to click the delete key and obliterate it all. My best made plans have led to naught.

A New York Times editorial, an article from the Washington Post, a quote from the Daily Telegraph as well as material gleaned from our local press will soon disappear.

Earlier today my casual and not very methodical scan of news media sources indicated that the inevitable fatigue factor was beginning to affect the Rosetta Revolution (The Economist’s cognomen for the Egyptian upheaval). Don’t misunderstand me, the people packing Tahrir Square in Cairo were not tiring of their struggle, but there were unmistakable signs that the enormous audience of lookers on all over the world was tired of watching the same crowd scenes. Even the momentous events taking place in Egypt are subject to the public’s limited attention span. It seems that matters closer to home concern us more.

I could be wrong especially regarding the Israeli public. Tahrir Square is only a bus ride away from Tel Aviv. Admittedly a long and not very comfortable bus ride. Of course there are better ways of going to Cairo, but I purposely chose the overland route to emphasise the physical link between Egypt and Israel. We can’t afford to ignore what is happening in Cairo.

As I wrote these opening paragraphs a breaking-news announcement claimed President Hosni Mubarak was about to resign and Egypt's Higher Military Council headed by Defence Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi was ”in a state of continuous session to protect the nation and meet the aspirations of the people.”

A few hours later Mubarak addressed the Egyptian nation and proved that rumours of his political demise were greatly exaggerated. Despite his announced transfer of power to Omar Suleiman, Mubarak hasn’t gone yet.

I won’t presume to guess what will happen next. I think many people in Israel will be relieved to learn that the army is in control in Egypt. The worst case scenario described a leaderless and divided group of opposition bodies led by a better organised Muslim Brotherhood.

Arab affairs expert Dr Guy Bechor was quick to criticise fellow analysts, observers and all the people who are writing obituaries for Hosni Mubarak.

Commenting on the latest developments in Egypt in an op-ed he wrote for Yediot Ahronot he said,

“We have experienced plenty of arrogance and a failure to understand Egypt over the past 10 days on the part of experts and commentators, both in Israel and abroad, who terminated Mubarak and his regime with their very words. The Obama Administration joined this assessment, until it realised its mistake.

The moment it became clear that Egypt’s immense defense establishment – millions of soldiers, police officers and security personnel – is standing by Mubarak and his officers, the matter was decided. The moment government institutions in Cairo were kept in the army’s hands, it didn’t matter how many protestors gathered at Tahrir Square, because this is how Egypt is ruled: From the radio and television building, from the Interior Ministry, from the government palaces, and from the Central Bank.”

Bechor is an expert on Arab and Egyptian law. He is well acquainted with the powerful Egyptian regime and rightly presumes to understand how it governs.

Unlike other observers he doesn’t over estimate the power of the people in the square.

He quotes Machiavelli, “There is nothing more frightening than an impassioned crowd without a leader and also nothing weaker.”

Relating specifically to the people in the square he said, “And indeed, the masses who gathered in the squares had no leader. Baradei is a Western joke, as he knows nobody in Egypt and mostly in its corridors of power. He has lived in Europe for most of his life.

The other candidates are insignificant as well. The cleric Yusuf Qaradawi lives far away in exile and the only leadership that remains is the almost primitive incitement of al-Jazeera; many people in the Middle East already understand that this is no news channel, but rather, a propaganda tool on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood and its regional proxies. Al-Jazeera is already being watched carefully in the Mideast. “

Guy Bechor warns of the real danger -

“And so, under a green veneer of democracy and stability, political Islam is waiting on the sidelines. Tunisia’s Islamic leader, Rashid Al-Ghannoushi, returned after the revolution and is already preparing his party to win the democratic elections in the country. He may not run for office, yet his Islamic revival party is an organised power that waits its turn. Europe, which lauded the “democratic” revolution in Tunisia, will be surprised by the result, which will materialise right on Europe’s doorstep.”

If I understand him correctly Bechor believes Mubarak or his regime will survive. He ends by criticising the US president.

“Had Mubarak listened to Obama, he would have been in exile in Dubai by now. Fortunately for Mubarak, he did not listen, and survived. And this is the main problem now: There is no master of the house in the Middle East. The Obama Administration is either absent or doesn’t get it, and accordingly, we are seeing the grave results. Not everyone is as powerful as Mubarak and his regime, and quite a few Arab elements may pay the price of American amateurism.”

I think Dr. Bechor would have done well to wait a little to see how the people in the square react to Hosni Mubarak’s disappointing announcement. Furthermore I’m not sure the army has decided to stick with the regime.

Another Arab affairs analyst Avi Issacharoff wrote in an entirely different vein. Reviewing the demonstrations in Egypt he wrote in Haaretz, “At the beginning of the week it seemed as if Mubarak and Suleiman had succeeded in weakening and fracturing the opposition. It had no leadership, and certainly no leader. “

Issacharoff identifies the turning point in the demonstrators struggle, “So why did Mubarak end his war of attrition with the protesters and transfer his powers? It wasn't only American pressure on the Egyptian government to institute reforms, or the economic harm being caused to the Egyptian tourist industry that was adding up.

Apparently it was the government workers that decided to hold a workers' strike and join the demonstrations. Thousands of workers in key corporations like the Suez Canal Authority, the Suez Steel company and of course thousands of government office workers (including the state-run media) joined the great festival in the square on Tuesday, preventing the state from continuing to function as a political entity.

Suleiman, Defense Minister Mohammed Tantawi and other army leaders understood that in order for life to return to normal, they must make a symbolic sacrifice of Mubarak himself.”

Keep watching the people in the square.

Have a good weekend

Beni 11^th of February, 2011.