I think historians will be kind to Gabi Ashkenazi. With the passage of time the Yoav Galant imbroglio will be forgotten or mentioned merely as a brief footnote. His able and qualified successor, IDF chief of staff Lt-Gen Benny Gantz now commands a formidable military machine.
Ashkenazi's four year command of the IDF began with a major overhaul necessitated by the army's much-criticised performance in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. The IDF focused on enhancing accurate long-range firepower, rebuilding its neglected capacity for sweeping armoured manoeuvres, and improving coordination for joint ground, sea and air strikes. Training on all relevant parameters was increased by as much as 200 percent.
Ashkenazi and many military analysts say our development of "smart" guided missile firepower is unrivalled, and in many respects the IDF may even be a world leader in this type of cutting edge technology. Journalist Leslie Susser defined it as ,"the ability to pinpoint targets in the heat of battle and bring lethal fire to bear within seconds."
A few weeks ago the outgoing chief of staff could have presented a calmer appraisal of the nation's security. Hezbollah was preoccupied with the Hariri Tribunal findings and hadn't fired a shot at Israel in more than four years. Syria was more concerned about bolstering Hezbollah and cementing its ties with Iran. We were benefiting from a cold peace with Egypt and Jordan. Only Hamas in Gaza was practicing a kind of mini-brinkmanship, occasionally testing how far it could infringe the ceasefire without provoking painful reprisals.
Iran was behind schedule with its enriched uranium production due to damage caused to its batteries of centrifuges by the Stuxnet worm.
Since then a lot has changed. Are the uprisings that started in Tunisia and spread throughout the Middle East liable to change the present fragile but stable status quo?
Foreign commentators claim Israel's leaders are alarmed. “The Egyptian upset is heightening a sense of encirclement that has not been felt so acutely by Israelis in decades.” Said The Economist and asked if Israel was “encircled by enemies again?”
Surveying the deteriorating situation in the Middle East the paper singled out Jordan as our major cause for concern.
“Perhaps even more worrying for Israel is a rising fear that on its eastern flank the ruling monarchy in Jordan, the only Arab country bar Egypt that has a formal treaty with the Jewish state, is being shaken by an assortment of Islamists, tribal leaders, Palestinians (who make up a good half of Jordan’s people), disgruntled former security men and a middle class irritated by the royal family’s perceived extravagance.”
Worst case scenarios are more the rule than the exception in this region.
Our political and military decision makers tempered by the harsh reality of our unfriendly neighbourhood often quote Murphy's adage," Everything that can possibly go wrong will go wrong."
Last week Gabi Ashkenazi repeated his less than optimistic regional assessment when he addressed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, referring specifically to the tectonic changes in the region that are leading to gains for the Iranian-led radical axis at the expense of the region’s moderates.
Ashkenazi and certainly his successor Benny Ganz believe the IDF needs to prepare for a significant broadening of the spectrum of threats against Israel. Not only does the IDF have to be ready to fight a simultaneous war on several fronts, it must be able to wage very different kinds of warfare -- from "low intensity" irregular conflict with terrorists, to classical conventional warfare against regular armies, to missile warfare against states or powerful non-state actors like Hezbollah.
Even though the threat of a terrorist or missile attack might seem more imminent, Ashkenazi's IDF doctrine emphasised preparedness for war between regular armies.
"We must train for classic conventional warfare. It poses the biggest challenge, and from it we can make adaptations to other forms of warfare, but not vice versa,” said Ashkenazi earlier this month when he addressed the 11th annual Herzliya Conference on national, regional and global strategic issues. "It would be a mistake to train for low-intensity conflict and to think that the army will be ready overnight to make the switch to full-scale warfare."
Despite the focus on conventional warfare, the IDF has also developed specific capabilities for terrorist and missile warfare. They include a four-layered anti-missile defence system starting with the Arrow missile, which is capable of intercepting long-range missiles at altitudes of above 50 miles, to the Iron Dome system for shooting down low-flying, short-range rockets.
In any future missile war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ashkenazi says the IDF will apply conventional warfare skills, committing ground forces to attack the enemy in its embedded positions and considerably shortening the duration of the conflict.
Perhaps the most dramatic stride forward made by the IDF over the past few years is in field intelligence. If in 2006, its "bank" of targets in Lebanon numbered approximately 200, today the bank contains thousands of potential targets. Ashkenazi insists that firepower is meaningless unless there are targets of high military value.
The tried and tested Iron Dome system is fully operational. Now more than ever before the thirteen units required to protect our borders with Lebanon and the Gaza Strip periphery should be provided without delay. Although the total cost of the thirteen units amounts to an awesome $1.4 billion the system possesses an added value factor. Interest in the Iron Dome System will probably develop into sales to other friendly nations once its effectiveness is proven "under fire."
A newer improved model of the Arrow missile was successfully tested last week and it too will take its place in the multi-layered anti-missile defence system. Despite the race against time, namely the need to have the complete system operational before Iran can produce a nuclear device and a missile system to deliver it, we can't afford to cut corners.
On the ground the IDF continues to further develop its main battle tanks.
Some military strategists have relegated the main battle tank to tertiary roles, others to national war museums. They claim large armoured corps battles have no place in modern warfare. The MBT is large, cumbersome and provides an easy target. Armour penetrating missiles have made them death traps for their crews. Furthermore, they argue, MBT's have little or no use in low intensity warfare. Admittedly improved tank armour provides a greater degree of protection, however more powerful armour penetrating missiles like the Kornet laser guided anti-tank missile are weapons to be reckoned with and now they have been acquired by both Hezbollah and Hamas.
The ultimate counter to anti-tank missiles is the new "Trophy" defence system: a miniature anti-missile system that detects incoming projectiles and destroys them down before they reach their targets. Eventually all IDF armoured vehicles, tanks and personnel carriers will be equipped with the Trophy system. Trophy is the product of a ten-year collaborative development project between the Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and Israel Aircraft Industries' Elta Group.
The IDF is certainly not about to scrap its main battle tanks. Maybe major tank battles won’t feature in conventional warfare, however tanks are valuable adjuncts and have been used effectively even in low intensity warfare.
Should Israel really be alarmed by the prospect of regime change in the countries it shares a common border with?
It’s difficult to predict what will happen in Lebanon following the publication of the findings of the Hariri Tribunal.
Jeffrey White, a defence fellow at The Washington Institute, specialising in military and security affairs attempted to assess the possible outcome of the regime change in Egypt. Writing in Policy Watch published by the institute he said the Supreme Military Council, effectively the ruling body in Egypt during the interim period till a new government can be elected must deal with major challenges. “Challenges both within Egypt and in its external relations. Internally, it has the tasks of asserting its authority, restoring normalcy, removing the most objectionable vestiges of the old regime, and making the transition to a new regime. Externally, it must deal with the United States and Israel.”
White believes that at least four scenarios could emerge in the coming months. “First, the military forms an effective partnership with opposition elements and proceeds toward real political reform and transition to democracy. Second, the military attempts to rush the process in order to return to the barracks and avoid direct responsibility for mounting political and economic difficulties, or at least to reduce its overt role; this approach would produce a flawed or incomplete transition. Third, the SMC (Supreme Military Council) employs a divide-and-conquer strategy against the opposition in an attempt to retain essential control. Fourth, the military slowly gains power by default in response to a weak and fragmented opposition.
In the last scenario, the military might find itself in the difficult position of not having a competent partner for a transfer of power. At the moment, one of the first two scenarios seems most likely, but the others are well within the realm of possibility. Much will depend on how well and for what purposes the SMC plays the game in the period ahead. Mistakes will be made by all those involved, and new crises may develop. Revolutions are not deterministic processes, and as in most human affairs, the laws of unanticipated consequences and unexpected outcomes apply.”
Reading over these remarks I realise I have described a dismal state of affairs. Worst case scenarios, IDF strategy options and a lot of uncertainty.
Maybe I’m overstating the situation. By and large we go about our daily affairs without giving too much thought to the turmoil surrounding us. If we read a newspaper or turn to the newscasts we become more aware of the potential danger.
In the meantime I’m planning a Saturday trip with an overseas business associate. He is an observant Christian so Nazareth and the Sea of Galilee have been included in our itinerary.
Have a good weekend.
Beni 24th of February, 2011.
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