Ethereal light

The weather forecast promised intermittent rain with some bright periods for most of the day. I had planned to show an overseas guest some of the Christian holy sites in the north of Israel. Considering the fairly dismal outlook the success of our Saturday trip depended a lot on luck and perhaps some divine intervention. As we drove to Nazareth on the road that cuts across Mt. Precipice the valley below was obscured by white mantilla -like clouds so I could only describe the view we couldn't see.

Inside the Franciscan Basilica of the Annunciation in Nazareth a group from Uruguay had gathered at the lower level by the grotto to conduct mass.

At the upper level of the church we admired the magnificent cupola with its thirty two petals patterned like an inverted Madonna Lily. It was raining outside but light entering through the leggia above the dome diffused through the massive basilica creating an ethereal atmosphere.

Many churches and hospices built during the post-Ottoman period were designed by the renowned Italian architect Antonio Barluzzi. However the new Basilica of the Annunciation was the one church he wanted to build more than any other. The plans he submitted for a new basilica to replace the old church were repeatedly shelved and finally rejected by the Franciscan Custodians who favoured the design presented by another Italian architect, Professor Giovanni Muzio. Antonio Barluzzi broken in spirit and health by the rejection died a few years later.

Our last stop on the tour was the Basilica of the Miracle of the Transfiguration on the summit of Mount Tabor. The first and probably the most impressive church Antonio Barluzzi built in this country. Most of the materials used in the construction were imported from Italy. The innovative architect wanted to create an ethereal light effect reminiscent of the transfiguration by tiling the roof of the basilica with thin slabs of semi-translucent alabaster. The effect was achieved, but unfortunately at that time (1924) Barluzzi lacked a suitable sealing material to bond the alabaster. After a while the roof leaked and the alabaster had to be covered with terra cotta tiles.

This lengthy preamble about Italian architects’ quest for ethereal light was intended to provide a light shedding simile to clarify current events in this region, but it doesn't.

Instead it serves to share with you a few impressions from our Saturday tour.

A Talmudic axiom states -"Since the destruction of the Temple prophecy is the domain of fools." Notwithstanding this truism the news media is full of well argued predictions about the outcome of the present spate of uprisings in the Middle East.

These latter-day prophets can be divided into two categories. In the first category there are the observers and analysts, the people who know they shouldn't make predictions, nevertheless they can't resist the temptation to do so.

In the other category you will find the politicians who fear being called opinion-less nobodies. They know that predictions are like yesterday's horoscopes, nobody remembers them and if by chance they guess right they can always say "I told you so."

Former Director General of the Foreign Ministry Alon Liel weighs his words carefully. He is a career diplomat who was once our ambassador to Turkey. In an interview he gave to the Jerusalem Post this week he avoided saying anything that could be construed as a prediction. Our preoccupation with the uprising in Libya is understandable. However the viability of the 1979 Israel-Egyptian peace treaty is of far greater significance to Israel than the fate of Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi. “The question of whether this agreement will survive and diplomatic relations remain intact critically affect Israel’s standing in the region,” he said.
Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab League, announced that he will be a candidate in the forthcoming Egyptian presidential elections.

Liel has met Amr Moussa and is familiar with his views “He differs from Mubarak. Over the past two decades he has been very hostile to Israel” Liel said.” I don’t think he will revoke the peace agreement. Furthermore, I don’t think he will break diplomatic ties between Israel and Egypt.
I’m almost sure he will recall the Egyptian ambassador and he will be very, very critical in his statements.”
Alon Liel believes relations between Israel and Egypt will be relegated to a lower diplomatic level, similar to our relations with Turkey. “If Amr Moussa is the next president of Egypt, I think we’re headed toward a kind of Turkish-Israeli situation.”

There is good reason to worry about Jordan. The very correct and cordial relations with that country have deteriorated. Six months ago the Jordanian government recalled its ambassador and is content to maintain the present low level diplomatic representation.

It would be a mistake to overlook the US influence in the region. Without bullying or applying too much coercion the US will make sure the two extant peace treaties are not abrogated

The Economist pointed this out recently. “The cornerstone of America’s ‘mil-mil’ relationship with Egypt is the $1.3 billion in annual foreign military financing that it has handed over since 1979 as “untouchable compensation” for Egypt’s peace with Israel. Over 30 years the Egyptian armed forces have replaced Soviet-era weapons with top-notch American kit, such as F-16 fighters and M1 tanks. How much influence this buys the Americans is debatable: they tread a fine line between giving advice and appearing to dictate. But the example of Iran, which saw its advanced American weapons rapidly fall into disrepair after the fall of the Shah, is a warning of what could happen to Egypt if ties with America go irretrievably wrong.”

Tariq Alhomayed writing in the English edition of Asharq Alawasat wonders how far the present wave of disturbances will spread. While the Arab states share many things in common it’s a mistake to use the same yardstick when comparing them.

“It’s not possible to compare Libya to any other Arab country, especially with regards to the levels of insanity displayed by Gaddafi's rule, just as Tunisia is not Egypt; Egypt is not Bahrain, and so on. This is due to several factors, both internal and external, even at the level of government institutes. Thus, there is no single recipe for the whole region.
Yes, there are demands worthy of reform; both political and economic, but some states require such reforms faster than others, and the situations differ. Some states need to move towards democracy, but no two states are the same, and again there is no standard recipe.”

Rachel Bronson author of "Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia. Says " Revolutions are contagious in the Middle East - and not just in the past few weeks. In the 1950s, when Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser swept into power, nationalist protests ignited across the region, challenging the leadership in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and eventually Libya and beyond.” Ms. Bronson finds common denominators but points out that Saudi Arabia differs in some respects.

“The upheaval in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and elsewhere is driven by popular revulsion with sclerotic, corrupt leadership. These countries do not have clear succession plans in place. They do have organized opposition movements, both inside and outside their borders that are exploiting new means and technologies to challenge the governments. Their leaders are vulnerable to independent militaries. Their economies are weak, and educational opportunities are few.

These conditions seem to be present in Saudi Arabia, too, but the country is different in some important ways. First, its economic situation is far better. Egypt's per capita gross domestic product is slightly more than $6,000, and Tunisia's is closer to $9,000. For Saudi Arabia, it is roughly $24,000 and climbing (up from $9,000 a little more than a decade ago). The Saudi regime also has resources to spend on its people. Oil prices are high and rising. On Wednesday, the king announced massive social benefits packages totalling more than $35 billion and including unemployment relief, housing subsidies, funds to support study abroad and a raft of new job opportunities created by the state. Clearly the king is nervous, but he has goodies to spread around. “ Says Bronson.

The good news this week arrived a little late but was definitely worth waiting for. .

Pope Benedict XVI has made a sweeping exoneration of the Jewish people for the death of Jesus Christ in a new book, tackling one of the most controversial issues in Christianity.

Admittedly a declaration issued by the Vatican in 1965 stated that Christ's death could not be attributed to Jews as a whole at the time or today.

Rabbi David Rosen, head of interreligious affairs at the American Jewish Committee and a longtime leader in Vatican-Jewish dialogue believes Pope Benedict’s declaration is more significant.

There will be no letter next week I will be on holiday in Malta.

Have a good weekend

Beni 3^rd of March, 2011.