BOOTS ON THE GROUND VERSUS EYES IN THE SKY.

 

I confess the title is misleading. Every night IDF units are operating somewhere in or near Jenin, Nablus and other places in the West Bank apprehending wanted terrorists. They go in “Boots on the ground” and in armed vehicles guided by cutting-edge technology that pinpoints their quarry. The ever-present drones flying overhead and cloud networking are their “Eyes in the sky.”

The way we wage war is changing! A piece in the The Economist last week described the Starlink constellation as, ”one of the wonders of the world—or, more accurately, off the world.” The author told how the Starlink configuration numbering 3,335 active small satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) which communicate with designated ground transceivers, has become an integral part of the Ukraine’s military and civil response to Russia’s invasion. It is not just enabling Ukraine to fight back; it is shaping its battle strategy.

A large part of the traffic flowing through the system currently comes from Ukraine.

The Institute for National Security Studies (INNS), an independent Israeli research institute and think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University, published an article on the same topic.

“’The first digital war’ is one way to describe what’s happening in Ukraine. The flood of open-source information helps intelligence organisations obtain a precise picture of the situation, but may also lead to confusion and unfounded bias. Invariably our military affairs analysts ask, “What can Israel learn from the Ukraine experience of the past year. Namely, the correct use of open-source intelligence in times of war?”

The important change evident in this context is that whereas in the past military intelligence organisations tended to limit the use of information gathered in the open sphere and based their assessments and recommendations mainly on classified information, today such a decision would be irresponsible. It would mean dismissing the wealth of available and valuable information, and more important, ignoring a central arena of activity in war.

The potential embodied by open-source intelligence is familiar to intelligence organisations in Israel. Dramatic progress in the field has led to global breakthroughs in the ability to collect information, processing based on artificial intelligence and data fusion, as well as collaboration with the industrial sector. Nonetheless, the primary force buildup continues to lean toward classified sources, while the link between the world of classified intelligence and the world of open-source intelligence, and the involvement of civilians and civilian infrastructure in the assessment of intelligence and increased sources of information, is still deemed taboo.

One Israel TV Channel 13 panellist cautioned, “It is still too early to conclude definitively the lessons of the war in Ukraine, but the relationship between the state, military, and intelligence agencies on the one hand, and social media, commercial platforms, and the public on the other, is certainly a wake-up call. Compared to the events in Ukraine it is doubtful whether Western countries, and Israel in particular, are ready to make use of the public and private companies with the same efficiency. However, if we are unable to adopt the new approach now, we will likely not be prepared to tackle the challenges that await us.”

I was led to believe that British military intelligence authorities were slow to change their traditional conservative approach, it appears I was misled.

In November 2022, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, Commander of the UK Strategic Command, which is responsible for the UK’s military intelligence organisations, force buildup, and planning, addressed this subject at a virtual conference of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Hockenhull committed to a change of approach among British intelligence organisations.

The war in Ukraine can be seen as “the first digital war” in history. This term does not refer to fighting abilities based on advanced technology, but rather highlights the dynamic arena in the digital space, close to the battlefield and sometimes within it, with the participation of millions of people and commercial organisations connected to the internet.

The mission of intelligence organisations in war is to gather as much information about the enemy and dispel the fog of battle. Today, in the open space it is possible to find commercial satellite photos, technical data collected by media companies (location, activity loads), and a range of content collected and published by individuals on social media. Most of the information used by Ukraine in advance of and during the Russian military invasion was found in the open-source intelligence (OSINT) space. Since the information was largely unclassified, it was possible to analyse it with the help of advanced processing capabilities based on artificial intelligence and developed by the technology giants in the private sector. Data processed in the United States and Britain was easily shared with intelligence organisations worldwide, and particularly in Ukraine, without the policy barriers so familiar to intelligence agents from their routine work. The collected information provided a high-quality response to questions about the Russian invasion such as when and where, and what was the expected scope.

In the digital war, the winner will be the side that is quicker to understand how to exploit the potential of this open space.

In recent years, the world’s militaries, including the IDF, have improved their sensory abilities and increased the number of sensors and means of intelligence gathering about the enemy using advanced military technology. The Ukraine experience demonstrates that every person and every means of communication can be used as a sensor.

According to data from Ukrainian communications companies, the use of public networks helped increase the army’s range of reception and broadcast over its own communications infrastructures. Public networks are deployed with redundancy for the purpose of backup and must routinely pass tests of user and traffic load. In general, these infrastructures are more efficient and more accessible, particularly if the enemy destroys military communications systems. The Ukrainian army adopted the use of civilian infrastructures in the early stages of fighting and thus gained an advantage on the ground.

This represents a significant change in the approach to intelligence gathering, and it is impossible to ignore the ethical and moral challenges of this approach, as the information can invade the privacy of users. However, in times of crisis, such as when the Ukrainian government and people are fighting shoulder to shoulder for survival, the entire public has rallied round to lend the homeland an advantage. It is likely that in Israel too, as in the past, the public will support the IDF war effort when necessary.

While the IDF has neither rejected nor accepted the Ukrainian open-source intelligence model, it has adopted a different approach

In an article published by Business & Innovation Brig.-Gen. Aviad Dagan, director of the IDF’s Digital Transformation Administration outlined it as follows:

“A major recent advancement by the IDF has been cloud networking between all forces, including headquarters, frontline command centres and troops in the field. However, the military is starting a new digital advancement beyond the cloud.

The IDF will be building mini-clouds, or networks, for each of the armed forces and sometimes smaller subdivisions so they can process and receive data even faster than in the current network.”…”For example, a wide variety of data points could put together sensory detection of an enemy, evaluate who the enemy is, check the various IDF options within range to respond, analyse how much fuel different drones or other units have remaining and then quickly dispatch the best available targeting order,” Dagan said.

“The new AI capabilities could be of immense importance in any potential future war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where the IDF has already developed a list of thousands of targets,” he said.

However, while Israel continues to place “eyes in the sky” along with cloud networking, one particular advocate of a very conservative “boots on the ground” policy, stubbornly rejects this innovation.  

Contrary to the old army ballad. old soldiers don’t “fade away.” At least not as far as former Defence Ministry Ombudsman Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yitzhak Brick is concerned. He has been the bane of outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General   Aviv Kochavi and some of his predecessors. 

In a statement issued after the inauguration of IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi on Friday, former Defence Ministry Ombudsman Major General Yitzhak Brick warned that Israel will cease to exist if it does not prepare for a multifront battle. 

Brick opined that the new IDF Chief of Staff will have a "difficult and complex legacy" and offered him advice. He called on Halevi to: "Regain the deterrence of the Israeli army and get ready for the multifront battle from now on."

He added: "The mission of the new chief of staff is difficult because the situation inside the military forces is difficult, and might push the country to a major national disaster in any future war."  

Brick called on Halevi to give up the policies of his predecessors and "carry out a full correction process inside the army."

He added: "The IDF is armed with modern and high-tech equipment to cover up its failure, mainly in light of lack of training and an acute lack of professional manpower."

Herzl Halevi has been described as an observant Jew. I’m sure he is familiar with the following passage from the Book of Job:

“Look unto the heavens, and see; and behold the clouds which are higher than thou.”

Brick’s grievances arouse a sense of déjà vu. In December 2018 Jerusalem Post, military affairs columnist Anna Ahronheim wrote about the ongoing disagreement between Yitzhak Brick and the IDF. She said the argument followed two damning reports Brick sent to senior IDF officers, the Cabinet and the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee. Brick called on them to investigate alleged deficiencies in training and equipment.

The Ombudsman, who was due to resign after 10 years in his position, has repeatedly warned about the military’s dire state.

His scathing report claimed that the current situation in the IDF was “worse than it was at the time of the Yom Kippur War” in 1973. The report   was for the most part rejected by then IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, who said the military is in a high state of readiness and preparedness for war. “If we go to war tomorrow, we are ready. We aren’t in perfect shape, but we are ready,”

Brick’s preference for boots on the ground as opposed to eyes in the sky means mainly incursions. An outmoded and disastrous strategy.

 

Anyway, have a good weekend.

 

Beni,  

19^th of January, 2023