The adage – “My mind is made up. Don’t confuse with the facts,”
aptly fits the current war of words regarding the explosion that caused,
as yet, an unknown number of deaths and injuries at the al Ahli hospital in
Gaza.
Since then, I have been continuously revising and rewriting this
text.
The al Ahli hospital was founded in 1882 in a remote corner of the Ottoman Empire, it is one of the
oldest hospitals in Gaza and has been supported successively by various
Protestant missions. However, today Christians are a tiny minority in Gaza, a mere
900 souls. It’s reasonable to assume that most, if not all of the hospital’s
patients are Muslims.
The Jerusalem
Post dedicated an
editorial the Al-Ahli hospital explosion criticising news media outlets that
were quick to blame Israel for the attack.
“Many of our
colleagues in the international media immediately believed information
provided by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry that an Israeli airstrike had
killed hundreds of patients and hospital staff.
At 6:59 p.m. on Tuesday evening, an explosion shook al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City. Casualties were reported.
Images started circulating of a large fire and pandemonium inside the hospital
compound. Within minutes, the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry announced that
the hospital had been targeted by an Israeli airstrike and hundreds had been
killed. And many of our colleagues in the international media copy-pasted the item, accepting it word for word. ‘Israeli strike kills
hundreds in hospital, Palestinians say,’ reported The New York Times. ‘The Gaza Health Ministry says at least 500 people killed in an
explosion at a hospital that it says was caused by an Israeli airstrike,’ announced the Associated Press. “The presumption of Israeli guilt was swift and near-absolute,
broadcast to hundreds of millions around the world. Arab and Muslim leaders
issued scathing condemnations of Israel. Jordan’s King Abdullah II decried the ‘ugly massacre perpetrated by Israel against innocent civilians’; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan slammed ‘the latest example of Israel’s attacks devoid of the most basic
human values.’ The Jordanian
government called off a planned summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and the leaders of Jordan, Egypt,
and the Palestinian Authority.
Crowds massed outside Israeli embassies and set Israeli
flags aflame. Israel, for its part, responded with caution, with the IDF saying
it was looking into the reports.
At 10:08 p.m., the IDF
announced that intelligence information indicated that the
explosion was caused by a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket that had
misfired. Since then, the evidence absolving the IDF for the airstrike has mounted. Footage of the skies over Gaza just before before the explosion shows several
rockets being launched in unison, with one separating from the rest and landing
in Gaza, causing an explosion. The IDF revealed an intercepted conversation
between two Hamas terror operatives confirming that it was an Islamic Jihad
rocket that had hit the site. And both photos and drone footage from the site
show limited damage that is plainly inconsistent with the results of an Israeli
airstrike.
The authors of the Jerusalem Post editorial
advised their readers not to believe information
released by the Gaza Health Ministry. Mainly, because that
ministry – like every other government agency in Gaza – is subservient to Hamas and is used to advance its
murderous agenda. Hamas knew immediately that it was a Palestinian rocket that
had hit the hospital, but it
nevertheless fabricated an Israeli airstrike in order to hide the truth. Journalists and news media outlets wield enormous
power in the global conversation and they bear tremendous responsibility to verify the reports they receive. “
“The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine and
shelter,” President Biden said at the end of his brief visit to Israel. “While vowing to continue to provide for Israel’s security needs and
supporting Israel’s assessment that the explosion at the al-Ahli Hospital on Tuesday
night was not the result of an Israeli airstrike, but of “an errant rocket
fired by a terrorist group in Gaza”.
However, Biden added that “if Hamas diverts or steals the
assistance, they will have demonstrated once again that they have no concern
for the welfare of the Palestinian people, and as a practical matter it will
stop the international community from being able to provide this aid.”
Dr. Elai Rettig is an assistant professor in the
Department of Political Studies and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat
Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He specialises in energy
geopolitics and national security.
Quite recently Elai Rettig
posted a survey of Gaza’s energy and water supply
Here are some of the comments he
made: -
During times of peace, 50% of the electricity in Gaza is provided
by Israel through ten points of entry. Although technically, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is
responsible for paying for the electricity supply to Gaza, it chooses instead to accumulate the debt until it is periodically written off by Israel. At present, the debt stands at
2 billion NIS (approximately 500 million USD).
The other half of Gaza’s electricity is generated independently.
Gaza has one diesel-fuelled power plant that provides 25% of Gaza’s supply. The rest of the electricity is generated
through a wide array of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and
private diesel generators in residential areas, government buildings, and
hospitals. During the day, around 25% of Gaza’s electricity is generated
through PV panels, representing one of the world’s highest shares. This was
made possible through multiple funding projects led by the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) and
other intergovernmental organisations in the past decade. At night, private
diesel generators replace the PV panels.
Despite these trends, the electricity infrastructure in Gaza
is in deplorable condition. The population of Gaza receives an average of four
hours per day of continuous electricity supply from the main grid. Much of this
is due to the dilapidated electricity infrastructure in Gaza that was damaged
during Operation Protective Edge in 2014. Though large sums in foreign aid were
delivered to Hamas specifically to reconstruct the grid, Hamas has
diverted the funds elsewhere and left the grid in its current condition.
This has forced Gaza residents to seek private solutions like small-scale
diesel generators and rooftop PV panels if they can afford them.
Consequently, the immediate
effect of cutting off the electricity supply from Israel to Gaza is somewhat
limited.
In addition to cutting off direct electricity supply, Israel has
also announced that it has cut off the supply of diesel fuel to Gaza. During peacetime, Israel provides Gaza with diesel from the
oil refineries in Haifa. Hamas also sometimes purchases more expensive diesel
from Egypt that is transported by fuel tankers. Israel has
announced that it has also blocked the Egyptian route, which puts a tight
timeline on Gaza’s ability to continue to generate its own electricity.
Incidentally, the Al-Ahli hospital’s electricity
service functions sporadically,
and often the hospital must run its 400-kilowatt generator for 16 hours a day. It costs $90 an hour to operate the generator. Fortunately, the Episcopal
Relief & Development Authority helps the hospital.
The broader impact of a long-term power outage in Gaza will be on its water supply and sewage treatment, which cannot operate without continuous electricity supply. Israel supplies up to 10% of Gaza’s water consumption. The rest is produced through local reservoirs in Gaza, but about 75% of that water is not fit to drink and can only be used for irrigation. The EU provided funds to construct pipelines and a water treatment facility in Gaza to address this issue, but the water cannot flow through the pipelines without a continuous electricity supply. The problem is further aggravated by the fact that many segments of the water pipelines were removed recently by Hamas and converted into weapons. This forces large segments of the population in Gaza to rely on water trucks and private storage.
In terms of international law, Israel is walking a fine line. At present, Israel has not destroyed the power plant in Gaza or the capacity
to resume electricity and water supply to the coastal enclave. So long as Israel can show that the supply cuts are a time-limited
measure of war meant to hinder Hamas’s ability to operate and pressure it to
release hostages, it would not be considered a war crime. However, as time passes, if Israel does not allow some diesel and water supply for
hospitals and other essential needs, it may create a humanitarian crisis. This
can potentially be designated as an illegal collective punishment. In addition,
if Israel’s actions are perceived to be motivated by a desire to avenge the atrocities committed by Hamas, rather than a
temporary tactical measure during the war, Israel might be accused of committing war crimes. Recent statements made by Israeli cabinet ministers, Knesset members, and security officials declaring that Israel’s goal is to “wipe Gaza off the map” are harmful to
Israel’s ability to receive international legitimacy and may create severe
legal consequences for senior Israeli officials after the war.
Middle East Affairs analysts doubt if it’s
possible to rid Gaza of every Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Salafi terrorist. Even after
we manage to ‘take out’ Mohammed Deif and Yehya
Sinwar there will always be a
cadre of rank-and-file sympathisers. The “Mowing the grass” policy has been
ineffective. In the mean time the IDF isn’t in any hurry to start a land
incursion. It needs to be meticulously planned and carefully considered.
In a piece he wrote for
The Economist, Ehud Barak advocated a stage-by-stage incursion over a period
of several weeks/months.
On our northern border
with Lebanon there have been a number incidents involving exchanges of
artillery and mortar fire. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened
Israel several times. So has his mentor
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi who at a meeting
on Monday with his Russian and Turkish counterparts “warned against the
continuation of crimes by the Zionist regime.”
Obviously, we take threats seriously, but neither
Nasrallah nor Raisi are eager to fight right now.
Take care.
Beni,
19th of October, 2023
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