Thursday 25 July 2024

Hodeida.

An op-ed posted by defence analyst Udi Etzion in the Jerusalem Post on July 21 brought back old memories. “Almost 30 years ago, the Israel Air Force carried out Operation ‘Wooden Leg’ to attack the PLO headquarters in Tunis, a distance of 2,200 kilometres from Israel, the most extended attack it had carried out until then. The attack was carried out by eight F-15 fighter jets aided by two aerial refuelling planes to enable the F-15s to cover the distance. Defence analysts were impressed by Israel’s ability to attack with fighter jets at ranges commonly used by bombers.

The attack on the Houthi targets in Yemen is reminiscent of that operation, with an almost identical range but with different aircraft. In 2024, the Israeli air force operates a squadron of F-15I Ra’am aircraft, which is more advanced and better suited for long-range attack missions than the F-15s used in the Tunis attack.

According to reports, this time, the air force used the newer F-35 stealth multi-role combat aircraft, known as Adir, which led the attack. The 100 F-16I Sufa aircraft operated by the air force are far more advanced than the Ra’am, which arrived here 26 years ago. Likely, the Ra’am and Sufa aircraft were also integrated into the operation, even if only for refuelling protection.

Unlike the F-15 and F-16, the F-35 is a single-engine aircraft with a single pilot rather than a pilot and navigator who can assist in operating advanced attack munitions. However, it has several significant advantages in long-range attacks.

The first of these advantages is stealth; radars find it very difficult to detect the F-35 due to its structure and the materials it is coated with, which absorb most of the electromagnetic waves. An attacking F-35 will be detected much later than an F-15 or F-16, usually too late to respond and intercept the attack. This is also important concerning the attack on Yemen, as the Houthis have already demonstrated that they possess anti-aircraft missile systems, and they have already shot down American UAVs.”

At this juncture I want add a comment. Following most large-scale operations the IDF spokesman issues a brief statement. He definitely does not provide a detailed account regarding the aircraft employed in the attack, often designated as classified information.

Understandably, lacking these details Udi Etzion resorts to educated guesswork

“According to reports,” “Likely, the Ra’am and Sufa aircraft were also integrated into the operation,”

Back to the main text.

The aircraft (F-35 Adir) also has electronic warfare systems, including Israeli systems, which the air force insisted on integrating into the purchased aircraft. These systems are designed to protect the plane when it carries under its wings weapons and fuel tanks that reduce its stealth attributes.

The second advantage is the aircraft’s array of sensors. Israel has already purchased 50 Lockheed Martin aircraft and is currently acquiring a third squadron. The list includes advanced radar, optical, and thermal sensors; with the ability to intercept radar transmissions; and especially the capacity to collate this information and to cross-reference it.

This allows it to locate targets, identify the safest flight path with minimal chances of detection and interception, and share its information with other aircraft and rear command centres. The F-35 is not just an attack aircraft; it has capabilities that, until recently, required the support of a series of surveillance and intelligence-gathering aircraft.

Michael Knights, a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy favours a different approach to the Houthi threat.

“On July 20, Israel responded to a deadly Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv with heavy airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeida, destroying most of the site’s oil storage tanks. On the one hand, this targeting choice reflects crucial gaps in the international community’s policy toward the group: namely, the failure to implement UN sanctions on the Houthis or enforce U.S. sanctions aimed at keeping Iran from providing oil products as a valuable form of terrorist financing. On the other hand, Hodeida is also a crucial entry point for humanitarian aid, so targeting its infrastructure has negative repercussions for the Yemeni people.

To address this dilemma, Israel must be convinced not to respond to ongoing attacks by destroying additional infrastructure at Hodeida port, which the 2018 Stockholm Agreement left in the Houthis’ hands based on the expectation that they would demilitarise it. Yet this in turn will require the international community to do a better job of ensuring that humanitarian infrastructure is not being used for the benefit of a designated terrorist group. Indeed, the United States must remind global partners at the UN Security Council and elsewhere that Houthi diversion of aid, corruption, and kidnapping of aid workers is now the principal driver of humanitarian risk in Yemen.

Despite more than 220 Houthi attacks on Israel since the Gaza war erupted last October, the Hodeida operation was the first acknowledged Israeli counterstrike in Yemen. Clearly it wasn’t improvised without adequate preparation. The attack plan was in place, ready to be activated when an opportunity presented itself.

 Around twenty-eight oil tanks were located in the targeted area; satellite imagery showed as many as eighteen of them visibly destroyed, though other damaged tanks may have been obscured by smoke.

Israel no doubt chose these targets because imported hydrocarbon products have become Iran’s primary means of financing its Houthi partners, similar to how it has illicitly funded other bad actors like the Syrian regime and Lebanese Hezbollah. Tehran’s hand is visible in the movements and ownership of many of the tankers that bring such products to the Houthi-held ports of Hodeida, al-Salif, and Ras Issa. The UN Panel of Experts on Yemen has been highlighting this problem since 2019, when it estimated that Iran was providing $30 million per month to sustain the Houthi war effort.

The group has also facilitated the sale of sanctioned Iranian oil products outside Yemen. In 2021, the U.S. government began sanctioning the network of Iran-based Houthi financier Said al-Jamal for smuggling “Iranian fuel, petroleum products, and other commodities to customers throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.” According to the Treasury Department, “A significant portion of the revenue generated from these sales is directed through a complex international network of intermediaries and exchange houses to the Houthis.”

Based on imagery from Israel’s attack, one can conclude that only eight of the Hodeida oil tanks were full at the time (eight were shown burning; although more exploded, they may have been full of combustible vapor rather than oil products). If so, the Houthis might have lost as much as $60 million worth of products.

Notably, none of the vessels in this sample period were flagged for inspection by the Djibouti-based UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM), which effectively lapsed this spring due to personnel shortages (including the diversion of some inspectors to the Gaza humanitarian effort). On March 14—around the same time UNVIM ceased its public reporting—British deputy permanent representative to the UN James Kariuki told the Security Council about “extremely concerning” reports of “Iranian ships circumventing [UNVIM] inspections” and docking in Houthi-held ports. In May, British permanent representative Barbara Woodward warned of a “notable surge” in Iranian bypassing of UNVIM, with an estimated 500 truckloads of non-inspected material entering Hodeida since October. And on July 9, U.S. ambassador Stephanie Sullivan called for strengthening UNVIM’s capacity to inspect a broader range of vessels bound for Yemen.   

The attack on Hodeida has been interpreted as a warning to Iran that its petroleum storage facility on Kharg Island is also vulnerable to attack.

Kharg Island (better known as Khark Island)  provides a sea port for the export of oil and extends Iranian territorial sea claims into the Persian Gulf oil fields.

Somehow, I doubt if Israel will be impressed by Michael Knights' arguments.

Take care.

Beni,

25th of July, 2024 

 

Thursday 18 July 2024

Taking them out.

 Yediot Ahronot’s military correspondent Alex Fishman claims the IDF’s modus operandi in the Gaza Strip has changed. He says, "The political leadership has given the IDF and General Security Service (GSS) much more leeway and flexibility regarding ‘targeted killings’ of wanted terrorists.” Fishman prefers the term "pinpoint eliminations”, however he also mentioned, “surgical strikes."

Why do Fishman and other correspondents torment their readers by using oblique terminology? Perhaps they are simply articulating the same fondness military spokespeople have for bandying with words. Why do they avoid the word assassination? After all, the political leaders, commentators and the actual “dispatchers" have few qualms about "doing the job," so why don't they call a spade a spade?

The preamble above is something I wrote twelve years ago. Since then, nothing much has changed. Alex Fishman writes for another news outlet and I have resorted to regurgitating old stuff.

Speaking at a closed-door conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, CIA Director Bill Burns said that Yahya Sinwar is not “concerned about his own mortality,” and instead has been forced to consider a ceasefire because of pressure over the suffering in the Gaza Strip.

The report said that this pressure has increased over the past two weeks, which have seen Hamas drop major demands, as well as lose some of its key commanders in Israeli attacks.

According to i24NEWS, Burns said that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is facing pressure from his own military commanders to accept a tabled ceasefire deal to end the war with Israel.

Senior Hamas commanders are weary of the war, now in its tenth month, and are pressuring Sinwar to agree to an Israeli proposal that was promoted by US President Joe Biden at the end of May. Talks on the proposal are ongoing, with officials voicing either optimism that a deal could be reached or concern that the moment is slipping away.

At the conference, Burns said that Israeli and Hamas leaders must seize the opportunity to reach an agreement, the source said.

Suffering in Gaza caused by the Israel-Hamas war has pushed the terrorist organisation to seriously consider a ceasefire deal.

Despite the continued Israeli assault, Hamas and other Gazan terrorist groups retaliated with muted capabilities, showing the fighting has shifted to a more insurgency-based resistance than a proper defence of the Gaza enclave.

Citing a source who was at the conference, CNN said that US officials believe Sinwar is hiding in Khan Yunis.

The CIA declined to comment on the report.

This comes as a high-profile Israeli delegation is set to travel to either Egypt or Qatar to continue negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release.

A report published recently by The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) an independent think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University

 dealt with:

The operation to eliminate Mohammed Deif; the impact on the war and the effect on Yahya Sinwar.

“The results of the operation to eliminate Mohammed Deif are still unclear, but if the goal was indeed achieved (something that, according to media reports, is highly probable), it is a worthy and important operation that to some extent is comparable to the operations to eliminate Qassem Soleimani and Imad Mughniyeh. All three were experienced terrorists, very significant centres of knowledge, inspiring ‘up-and-coming’ terror groups.

The elimination of Deif becomes even more significant given the current reality of severe damage to Hamas’ military wing and its transition to guerrilla warfare. However, it is important to remember that organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah are more than the sum of their components or commanders. Israel has previously eliminated the leaders of these organisations and other very senior military figures, and yet the organisations continued to grow, develop and become more significant security threats to Israel, while establishing their status as political players in the Palestinian and Lebanese arenas.

The Times of Israel quoted a report published in the New York Times citing Israeli officials, saying that-

“The IDF waited weeks to strike Rafa’a Salameh’s compound hoping that Deif would meet him there —

This supposition rested on leaked information that the Hamas military chief would likely join his close ally at some point due to health problems that necessitated him surfacing to breathe fresh air.

Israel was monitoring Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade, for weeks before striking his location on Saturday, hoping that the terror group’s military commander Muhammad Deif would show up there.

Israel believes Deif did so on Saturday, leading to the strike that killed Salameh, though Deif’s fate remains unknown.

Hamas has claimed some 90 people were killed in the strike and accused Israel of carrying out a “horrifying massacre” against civilians. Israeli security officials have said many of those killed were Hamas operatives, with the strike conducted in a cordoned-off area used by the organisation.

Israel had been monitoring the compound in the Al-Mawasi area, where Salameh’s family owned a villa, for several months and knew that the Khan Younis brigade commander was present at the site.

Deif and Salameh had a close relationship, the IDF said on Sunday, describing Salameh as one of the “closest associates” of the leader of Hamas’s Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. 

Salameh was reported to have been at the compound for significant periods in recent months, along with his family and other Hamas operatives, as IDF troops advanced on most of his other Khan Younis strongholds. The ‘unnamed’ Israeli officials told the Times that Salameh was often underground in the tunnels, but found the sprawling underground network stifling, which accounted for his willingness to spend time above ground.

The compound was located in the middle of an olive grove, with low buildings, sheds and tarpaulins purportedly meant to prevent drones from spotting it. Apparently, Hamas believed Israeli forces wouldn’t suspect the location due to its relative exposure, and would also be unlikely to strike it due to its proximity to tent camps of displaced Palestinians.

The New York Times said Israeli intelligence officers received the first indication that Deif had arrived at the compound on Friday, at which point Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed off on plans to launch the strike. At 10 a.m. the next morning, after the IDF received further confirmation that Deif was present, fighter jets took off for Gaza.

After the strike military sources said several dozen Hamas operatives were in the area when it was targeted, including Deif and Salameh’s guards. Nevertheless, some uninvolved bystanders were likely killed and injured in the strike.

Hamas has denied that Deif was harmed, while Israeli defence officials have said there is a high likelihood he was killed, but there has been no confirmation as of yet.

The IDF believes the intelligence indicating Deif’s presence at the scene was highly accurate, and that if Deif was dead, Hamas would attempt to hide the truth for some time.

On Sunday evening, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi conceded that it was “still too early to summarise the results of the attack,” which he accused Hamas of trying to conceal.

Saturday’s strike was Israel’s eighth attempt to eliminate the elusive terrorist leader, who survived several attempts on his life between 2001 and 2021. He was seriously injured in two of them.

Deif would be the most senior Hamas terrorist in the Gaza Strip killed by Israel amid the ongoing war, after his deputy, Marwan Issa, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and Hamas’s deputy political leader, Salah al-Arouri, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike near Beirut in January.

While there is still no official confirmation, Israel’s Shin Bet [General Security Services] has good reason to believe that Deif was present at the site of the Israeli airstrike and made every effort possible to ensure he wouldn’t survive. [904 kg of bombs struck the cordoned-off site where Rafa’a Salameh arranged to meet Mohammed Deif. According to Saudi sources, there was a breach in Deif’s security circle, and someone provided information on his movements to Israel. It is believed that Deif was meeting Salameh over the negotiations of a hostage deal or to issue orders for Hamas’ activities in Khan Yunis.

Since the war began in October, Deif has become the second-in-command of Hamas, and if his death is confirmed, it would mark the most significant loss of a Hamas leader since the conflict started. While Hamas released a statement that Deif was fine, there are rumours suggesting that his body is being held in a hospital in Khan Yunis.

Israel estimates that between 60-80 percent of Hamas’s forces have been destroyed during this war. Further to that, about 95% of its rocket capabilities are gone and most of its battalions have been dismantled. As of now, apart from Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed Sinwar (most likely to succeed Deif), only the commanders in Rafah and Gaza City remain alive.

While some might argue that another head will just replace Deif, the reality is that his death will be a huge blow to Hamas. He was not just a leader but a symbol to the terror group who chanted his name in protests around the world. Deif had the ability to reshape a new generation of commanders and with him and his two closest deputies dead, Hamas will be weakened and unable to recuperate in the foreseeable future.

While many argue that assassinating Deif will have ramifications on the hostage deal negotiations, a former IDF intelligence director believes that shrinking Hamas’ leadership will make them more amenable to returning the hostages.

According to a i24NEWS report, CIA Director Bill Burns said that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is facing pressure from his own military commanders to accept a tabled ceasefire deal to end the war with Israel, a report in CNN said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a closed-door conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, Burns said that Sinwar is not “concerned with his mortality,” and instead has been forced to consider a ceasefire because of pressure over the suffering in the Gaza Strip.

The report said that this pressure has increased over the past two weeks, which have seen Hamas drop major demands, as well as lose key commanders in Israeli attacks.

Despite the continued Israeli assault, Hamas and other Gazan terrorist groups retaliated with muted capabilities, showing the fighting has shifted to a more insurgency-based resistance than a proper defence of the Gaza enclave.

Citing a source who was at the conference, CNN said that US officials believe Sinwar is hiding in Khan Yunis.

The CIA declined to comment on the report.

This comes as a high-profile Israeli delegation is set to travel to either Egypt or Qatar to continue negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release.

I’ve resisted the temptation to mention Trump and Biden at all. Too much is happening in our own backyard.

 

Take care.

 

Beni.

18th of July,  2024.



 

Thursday 11 July 2024

Lady Victoria Starmer

 


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Following Labour’s victory in the UK general election on Thursday, antisemitic conspiracy theories about new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s wife began to spread online.

Antisemites pointed to the Jewish faith of Victoria Starmer as evidence of a theory of broader conspiracy of Jews controlling the world through access to world leaders.

Pro-Assad commentator Maram Susli, also known as Syrian Girl online, claimed that Starmer’s marriage was one of many that were part of “an Israel infiltration agenda” and that it was “not antisemitic to notice it.”

“Britain’s new leader Keir Starmer is married to a Jewish woman. [US Vice President] Kamala Harris is married to a Jewish man. [US President Joe] Biden’s son is married to a Jewish woman. [Former US president] Donald Trump’s daughter is married to a Jewish man. [Former US secretary of state] Hillary Clinton’s daughter is married to a Jewish man. Just how many Jews are there in the world? I don’t believe it when they say it’s been 15 million since the 1950s,” Susli told her over 400,000 X followers on a Friday in response to a Jerusalem Post article on Victoria Starmer.

“All of these individuals are Zionists. [Trump's son-in-law] Jared Kushner is literally in bed with [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu.”

Victoria Starmer, wife of Keir Starmer, has largely kept a low profile despite her husband's political career. Both trained as lawyers, they married in 2007, shortly before Keir became Director of Public Prosecutions. Victoria, described by Keir as grounded, sassy, and funny, works in occupational health in the NHS. They prioritise their children's privacy, shielding them from public attention. Their family, including their Jewish heritage and ties to Israel, remains central amid the challenges.

On a number of occasions Keir Starmer has stated that he is an atheist.

An article in the Jerusalem Post this week added  more details about Britain’s first lady.

“Lady Victoria Starmer, a Jewish woman with a rich cultural heritage and deep-rooted traditions, is the new British prime minister’s wife.

Intertwined with her Jewish upbringing, her life story plays a significant role in shaping the values and practices of her family.

From regularly observing Shabbat to maintaining strong connections with the Jewish community, Victoria’s influence extends beyond the domestic sphere into her husband’s, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer’s political career.

Lady Starmer’s steadfast commitment to her faith and cultural traditions, as well as her involvement in combating antisemitism, emphasises the unique role she will play.

Victoria Alexander Starmer was born in North London in 1963.

Her father was of Polish-Jewish descent, and her mother, a community doctor, converted to Judaism upon marriage.”

Scrolling back a bit to the time when Jews in Britain lived in peril of their lives. I want to add a personal note. It refers to a visit to York in 1966, shortly after our marriage, Roni and I went on a trip to Europe. Travelling on a shoestring budget we managed to see almost all the places we had planned to visit. We got around mainly by hitchhiking from place to place, and sometimes travelling by affordable public transport. Where possible we stayed with family and friends, but mostly at ubiquitous youth-hostels.

I recall visiting York on our way to Scotland. In particular I remember stopping by Clifford’s Tower. In 1190, one of the worst pogroms in mediaeval England was perpetrated at Clifford’s Tower.

The Normans brought the first Jewish communities to England, where some served a special economic role as moneylenders, an essential but otherwise banned activity. English Jews were subject to considerable religious prejudice and primarily worked from towns and cities where there were royal castles that could provide them with protection whenever they were threatened. Royal protection was invariably granted by the ruling monarch who had a vested interest in protecting his Jewish subjects. A standing royal decree established that Jewish property and debts owed to Jews ultimately belonged to the crown, reverting to the king when a Jew died.

When Richard I left England to join the Crusades, his journey evoked anti-Jewish sentiment in York and other towns which led to savage attacks against Jews. The York Pogrom was, like the other instances of anti-Jewish violence before it, caused by the religious fervour of the Crusades. However, local noblemen saw the pogrom as an opportunity to erase their debts to Jewish moneylenders. The pogrom began when a mob burned the house of Benedict of York, a Jewish moneylender who died earlier during the London pogrom. The rioting mob killed his widow and children. Fearing for their lives, York’s remaining Jews sought refuge in Clifford’s Tower, which at that time was a wooden keep. The villainous mob, local militiamen and noblemen besieged the keep.                                                                                                         The siege lasted for several weeks. At that stage, life became untenable for the Jews trapped inside the wooden tower.

Their rabbi proposed that they should commit suicide to avoid being killed by the mob waiting for them outside. Most of the congregants accepted the rabbi’s proposal and killed their wives and children before taking their own lives, Simultaneously the keep was set on fire to prevent their bodies being mutilated by the mob outside. Several Jews perished in the flames but the majority took their own lives rather than surrender to their persecutors. However, a few did surrender, promising to convert to Christianity, but they were murdered as soon as they left the burning keep. In all, about 150 Jews died in the massacre. 

Research conducted recently reveals that around 20 years later ‘there was once more a thriving Jewish community in the town.'

In 1290, Jews were expelled from England entirely. They were not permitted to return to England until 1656.

Until the 1970s, the pogrom of 1190 was often underplayed by official histories of Clifford’s Tower. Local tour guides omitted to mention it at all. When Roni and I were in York we couldn’t find any information whatsoever about the pogrom. The local tourist information service admitted the ‘oversight’ and promised to correct it. Finally, in 1978 the first memorial plaque to the victims was laid at the base of Clifford's Tower.

 The history of Jewish settlement in Britain can be traced back to the reign of William the Conqueror (William of Normandy). The first written record of Jewish settlement in England dates from 1070, although Jews may have lived there since Roman times. The Jewish presence continued until King Edward I's Edict of Expulsion in 1290. After the expulsion, there was no Jewish community (apart from individuals who practised Judaism secretly) until the rule of Oliver Cromwell. While Cromwell never officially readmitted Jews to Britain, a small colony of Sephardic Jews living in London was identified in 1656 and allowed to remain. The Jewish Naturalisation Act of 1753, an attempt to legalise the Jewish presence in Britain, remained in force for only a few months. In 1858, practising Jews were finally allowed to sit in Parliament after the passage of the Jews Relief Act, which was a significant step on the path to Jewish emancipation in the United Kingdom.

The first Jewish knight was Sir Solomon de Medina, knighted in 1700, with no further Jews being knighted until 1837, when Queen Victoria knighted Moses Montefiore.

Since then, many British Jews have received titles from the reigning monarch.

So far, Britain’s new first lady seems to be settling in well at No 10.

Most of what I have written here was obtained  from open-source information.

Before I conclude I want to add that negotiations are being held to bring about the release of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Once that is achieved, we will need to agree on who will rule the coastal enclave on the ‘the day after.’

In the north Nasrallah continues his inflammatory rhetoric, but is less enthusiastic about conducting a full-scale war with Israel, especially now when he can’t count on Iran’s support.

Take care.

Beni,

11th of July, 2024.

 

 

Thursday 4 July 2024

A glimmer of hope.

 

Quite a while ago, I can’t pinpoint exactly when, I noted that Israel generates a disproportionate amount of news. In other words, it’s a small country where too much is happening.  Consequently, the international news media is disproportionately represented here. Furthermore, whenever our neighbours threaten us, or feel threatened by us, the foreign news media bureaus call in reinforcements to handle the reporting of the impending campaign/war. However, even during periods of relative quiet this hyperactive country manages to produce plenty to write home about. 

Lately, international news outlets have been reporting on the various stages of the Israel-Hamas War. In particular about the IDF’s efforts to destroy the cross-border tunnels along the Philadelphi corridor (The Philadelphi Corridor, also called the Philadelphi Route, is the Israeli code name for a narrow strip of land, 14 km in length, situated along the entirety of the border between Gaza Strip and Egypt). 

A number reporters working for Israeli news outlets- Ynet, the Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and others have accompanied IDF troops during operations in Rafah. An analysis published in the Jerusalem Post this week attempted to unravel the Hamas-Egyptian cross-border tunnel mystery. –

“While visiting the Philadelphi corridor in Rafah, The Jerusalem Post’s reporter was told that the IDF needs at least six months to eradicate cross-border Hamas tunnels completely, if not longer.

Almost seven weeks into the IDF invasion of Rafah, and with major operations there due to be concluded any day now, the IDF still is far from certain that it has or will find all of the cross-border tunnels between Gaza and Egypt.

In fact, the estimate for finding and completely destroying all of the cross-border tunnels is likely to take up to six months, but could easily be longer than that.

So far, multiple IDF sources have estimated that there are at least 25 cross-border tunnels, but these are just initial estimates.

Of all of the tunnel battles the IDF has taken on in Gaza, this is the most important by far because the Philadelphi Corridor is Hamas’s main supply line for receiving arms from the outside world, especially from Iran.”

“How can it be”, the author asked,” that the IDF's progress, while very significant and impressive, could fall to prevent Hamas from returning to rule in Gaza?

Doesn’t the IDF, after years of expanding the tunnel special forces unit, ‘Yahalom’, and investing billions of dollars in robots, specially trained dogs, customised drones, and a variety of other cutting-edge technologies, have the capabilities to terminate this mega-threat?

This is without even getting into the complex geopolitical question, which involves Egypt, the US, the UN, and others, of whether the IDF can prevent Hamas’s return if it withdraws completely from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Even before one gets to that question, if the IDF, currently with full control, cannot root out all of the tunnels, it is hard to see what will stop Hamas from rearming.

If finding cross-border tunnels starts deeper in Rafah, and not just on the thinner and shorter Philadelphi Corridor, then the search for them is much more extensive and more complex.

The cross-border tunnel dilemma would be a bit easier if the Egyptians were as dedicated to eliminating 100% of cross-border tunnels as the IDF is, but IDF sources indicate that they are not.

In fairness to the Egyptians, like Israel, they may have underestimated Hamas’s capacity to rebuild.

If the IDF, which sees Hamas as a serious threat, underestimated the terror group and did not get anywhere near destroying all the tunnels even after wars with Hamas in 2008-9, 2012, 2014, and 2021, then why expect better and perfect results from Egypt?

All of this is a generous explanation regarding Egypt.

The less generous explanation is that politics shifted in Egypt between 2015/2019 and 2023/2024.

2015 and even 2019 were closer in time to when Hamas helped the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood against the Egyptian military, and Cairo’s main thought about Hamas was probably still to smash it and any assets, including tunnels, which it had in Egypt.

But at some later point, the politics may have changed.

Most of the world started to see Hamas as a fait accompli that would rule Gaza for a long time to come and therefore couldn’t be ignored.

Maybe at some point, Egypt’s military regime reached an understanding with Hamas that as long as Cairo preserved certain interests and influence over Gaza’s rulers, the military would look the other way over certain cross-border underground smuggling issues that only negatively impacted Israel.

There is no question that the amount of criminal smuggling increased in recent years, and Egypt was doing little to assist Israel in breaking the trend.

If that is true, then Egypt was probably also doing less to crack down on terror smuggling by Hamas.

IDF sources told the Jerusalem Post that the Egyptians were embarrassed when confronted with the large number of cross-border tunnels that the IDF had shown them, which Cairo had said no longer existed.

But was it embarrassment in the sense of shock that Hamas had outwitted them? Or was it embarrassment that they understood that the IDF understood that Cairo had decided to look the other way?

Either way, defence sources have indicated that it is not at all clear that Egypt is even eliminating all of the extensions of tunnels that are on its side of the border.

This means that even if Israel eliminates many kilometres of tunnels extending from Rafah-Gaza up to the Egyptian border, the continuation of those tunnels may remain neither destroyed nor even neutralised (partially collapsed).

That would make it that much easier for Hamas to reconstruct those tunnels if (more likely when) the IDF gives up complete or partial control of the Gaza side of the Philadelphi Corridor or even once the IDF starts to reduce its standing troop presence in Rafah.

Now that this has been clarified, there is actually very little mystery to the Egypt-Gaza cross-border problem. What we lack are several months, if not years, to continue to destroy the tunnels, more cooperation from Egypt, and some way to permanently prevent Hamas from reconstructing everything that is destroyed, there is no reason to expect that Hamas’s rearmament life-line will be cut off – it will not.

It remains to be seen how long it will take Hamas to reconstruct/repair the tunnels sufficiently to start smuggling significant amounts of weapons. and will the IDF or whichever third party starts handling aspects of Gaza security try to seize or destroy smuggled weapons at some point within Gaza, or will Hamas renew its tunnel labyrinth unchallenged.

A number of respected military affairs analysts have posited that had Netanyahu not insisted on achieving ‘total victory’’ we could have reached an interim agreement to facilitate the release of some of the Israeli hostages, if not a final deal with Hamas.

I was about to sign off when a news flash brought me to believe there is still room for cautious optimism.

“Recent proposals by CIA Director William Burns have injected new momentum into the hostage release negotiations, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported Thursday. The US-crafted proposal was reportedly developed in coordination with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with possible Turkish involvement.

According to the report, the American suggestion includes clear, unambiguous language in the agreement. This would ensure that negotiations between phases one and two would proceed under a guaranteed ceasefire or establish prolonged calm throughout the talks following phase one. The report noted that these proposals closely align with Hamas' central demand for a complete ceasefire.

Al-Akhbar also mentioned another American idea involving Israel's evacuation of the Rafah crossing as part of an agreement with Egypt on its management, without obligating Israel to fully withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Hamas has since relayed its response to the Mossad, which has begun reviewing it. Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, engaged in discussions with mediators in Qatar and Egypt about ideas aimed at reaching an agreement. Haniyeh also conferred with senior Turkish officials about recent developments.

 Reporting on CIA Director Burns’ proposal CNN commented, “Israel and Hamas appear to be on the brink of a framework agreement for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations said.

Israeli officials believe Hamas’ latest response will enable the two parties to enter detailed negotiations to reach an agreement, the source said.

A deal, however, is still not finalised nor is it assured. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must first green-light entering into that next phase of negotiations; and it will likely take several weeks of difficult discussions to negotiate the details of a potential agreement, including the identities of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the sequencing of releases.

Israeli negotiators are set to meet with Israel’s political leadership, including Netanyahu, over the coming days to decide whether to enter this phase of detailed negotiations.

Hamas has confirmed that it passed a response on an Israeli proposal to mediators in Qatar and Egypt, repeating its demand for a complete ceasefire.

“We have put forward some demands that achieve securing access to a complete ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces,” Basem Naim, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, told CNN on Wednesday.

Hamas added in a later statement that it has dealt with the Israeli proposal “positively.”

This development comes as the Hostage and Missing Families Forum warned in a statement that millions of Israelis would take to the streets if the government fails to secure a deal to release the hostages.

“The people of Israel show time and time again in every poll that they are in favour of a complete deal for the return of all hostages. We will not allow the government’s ministers to torpedo the deal again,” the statement said.

“The government is at the highest moral test of its tenure: the continuation of abandonment or a determined action for rescue and restoration,” the statement added. “It’s either the complete return of the hostages or all Israeli citizens will be taking to the roads and intersections.”

Reviewing this lengthy missive, depressing as it is, there is nevertheless a glimmer of hope for a positive outcome.

 

 

Beni,

 

4th of July, 2024