Still Concerned.

 

Barely a week a week ago the USNI (US Navy Institute) News

reported on recent US aircraft carriers and their accompanying strike groups movements in the near east. The replacement of one carrier strike group by another is often regarded as routine procedure. However, the current movement of US forces differs considerably from normal routine procedure.

“West Coast carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is setting sail to the Middle East from the Pacific to relieve the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and its strike group. Meanwhile, the Navy is sending additional ships to the region following threats from Iran, Pentagon officials announced on Friday evening.
To maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has ordered the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, currently on deployment in the Central Command area of responsibility,” reads the Pentagon statement.

The Secretary of Defense, “has ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions. The Department is also taking steps to increase our readiness to deploy additional land-based ballistic missile defense units.”

The U.S. moves to bolster military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East follows reports that Iranian military officials and proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen will meet to discuss options to retaliate against Israel following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.”

“A senior Iranian official told newswire Reuters that Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to find the best and most effective way to retaliate against [Israel],”

“The Secretary of Defense has reiterated that the United States will protect our personnel and interests in the region, including our ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel,” the statement from the Pentagon clarified.”

Secretary of Defense Austin’s statement alone is an exercise in “projecting power.”

Now while Secretary of Defense Austin’s remarks are reassuring, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s clash with President Joe Biden as reported by Israel TV Channel 12 earlier this week, is worrying, to say the least.

Netanyahu told Biden, "We are making progress with the negotiations and will send a delegation to Cairo for that purpose."

Biden's blunt reply was: "Stop bullshitting me."

In addition to the tense exchange between Netanyahu and US officials, new information has surfaced about Netanyahu's discussions with Israeli security leaders. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Netanyahu, "There are conditions for the deal. I believe it is right to enter negotiations and achieve the best possible outcome.

Defence Minister Yoav Gallant joined the discussion, stating, "For all moral and strategic reasons, I think we should see the deal as an opportunity. There will be no deal under the conditions you set, and you know it. There is no security reason to delay the deal. Since we are speaking honestly, I will tell you that your considerations are not in the best interest of the matter."

Referring to the Israeli delegation sent to a meeting in Cairo, sources familiar with the hostage deal negotiations told Israel TV Channel 12, "This is a protocol trip, a waste of time. Netanyahu's current positions will not lead to real progress."

Following these reports, the Prime Minister's bureau reiterated its statement that Netanyahu expects the US not to interfere in Israeli politics.

"The leaks and false briefings from anonymous sources in the media are creating a misleading impression for the public," it said. "While Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to the outline, Hamas is attempting to introduce numerous changes that effectively nullify it.

In an interview with TIME Prime Minister Netanyahu was asked about his accountability for October 7, given that the heads of Israel's defense establishment have apologized for their role, Netanyahu evaded the question saying- “Now is not the time to deal with this question. Apologize? Of course, I am deeply sorry that something like this happened." Adding that "there'll be enough time to deal with it. But, I think that dealing with it now is a mistake. We're in the midst of a war, a seven-front war. I think we have to concentrate on one thing: winning," he said.

Despite the disagreement between the prime minister and the Israeli defence and security echelon regarding Hamas, Israel could pre-emptively strike Iran if intelligence shows that an attack is imminent.

Hebrew language news media reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu convened Israel’s security chiefs for a meeting on Sunday evening.

The meeting, attended by Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, Mossad head David Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, was held amid preparations for anticipated attacks on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah.

Israel is not certain what to expect from Iran and its proxies. A wide range of options as to how it can best respond to, or prevent, an anticipated assault were reviewed.

During the meeting with Netanyahu, the option of a pre-emptive strike against Iran was discussed, Ynet reported that although security officials stressed that such a move would only be authorised if Israel received definite intelligence confirming that Iran was about to launch an attack.

Israel would require its own intelligence on the issue to match up with US intelligence on the matter, the report said, and even if it did match, it may still choose to avoid going down the route of a pre-emptive strike. It’s likely that Israel would opt to persuade the US to muster a multi-nation defence group similar to the array that foiled the Iran-led attack on April13.

It stands to reason that Iran is hesitant to act impulsively

The explosive device that killed Ismail Haniyeh was placed two months ago in the house, which is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to The New York Times, which cited seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American.

A source who spoke on condition of anonymity confirmed the report to The Telegraph.

The bomb was detonated remotely when it was confirmed that the Hamas leader was inside the guesthouse. Haniyeh had apparently stayed at the guest house several times in the past.

Two IRGC officials said the explosion shook the building, and shattered some windows. The severe security breach was described as “catastrophic” and a “tremendous embarrassment” for the IRGC, according to the three Iranian officials.

"Iran is reconsidering its steps, even as the circumstances surrounding the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week are gradually emerging. The ‘perpetrators’, according to Washington Post analyst David Ignatius, used an explosive device planted in Haniyeh's room at a guest house operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards – not by means of a missile fired from a long distance. Somehow, according to the unwritten rules of the game in the Middle East, this is probably seen as less of a provocation in the eyes of the regime." According to Amos Harel Haaretz.
Hezbollah may attack Israel on its own, regardless of Iran. Whether or not Hassan Nasrallah heeds the warning, Israel promises a disproportionate response if Hezbollah fires on civilians.

Nasrallah’s ‘spider web simile likening Israel’s strength to no more than the blown-in-the-wind strands of a spider’s web, is no more than bravado echoing from the depths of his underground bunker.

 

Take care,

Beni,

8^th of August, 2024.