Concerned, but confident.

 In an opinion piece he wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations, Steven A. Cook asked, “Are Israel and Iran Headed for All Out War?”

He reasoned that the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the targeted assassination of Fuad Shukr a military advisor to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, are liable to bring Israel and Iran, (through its proxies) closer to war.

“Do the attacks in Beirut and Tehran signal a wider Israeli war with Iran and its proxies?

This is now more likely. The Israelis have been under attack from Iranian proxies since October 7. In recent weeks, the IDF has clearly gone on the offensive with a raid on the port of Hodeida in Yemen that is controlled by the Houthis, the strike on Tuesday that killed Hezbollah military official (aka terrorist) Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and the overnight assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The Israelis—who have not yet taken responsibility for the Haniyeh assassination—are demonstrating both technical prowess and that they are serious about “changing the rules of the game” with the axis of resistance. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s assassination, carried out after the inauguration of the new Iranian president in Tehran. There is little doubt that Hezbollah will also want to avenge the killing of Fuad Shukr. The Houthis will likely take part in any retaliation that Iran plans. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as militias in both Iraq and Syria under the auspices of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), make up Iran’s axis of resistance. The IRGC leadership has, since at least mid-2023, encouraged coordination among those groups. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has at times provided opportunity for this collaboration.”

“Does the Haniyeh killing effectively end current efforts to reach a cease-fire in Gaza?

Yes. The Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, posted on X shortly after the attack on Haniyeh that it was impossible to negotiate a cease-fire if one party is assassinating the negotiators of the other party. There is a self-serving quality to his statement, however. The Qataris proved incapable of convincing Hamas to agree to a cease-fire through many months of negotiation. In addition, it seems clear that the Israelis were quite serious when they declared the entire Hamas leadership is a ‘dead man walking.’ The killing of Hamas military chief Mohmmed Deif and now the confirmed killing of Haniyeh underscore that the Israelis mean what they say. Regardless of whatever negotiations were taking place—most recently in Rome—the Israelis were intent on exacting revenge and breaking Hamas.

The triggering event for this week’s escalation appears to be a missile attack on civilians in the Golan Heights that Israeli officials attribute to Hezbollah. What happened there?

Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah have been engaged in a low-level conflict that has grown bolder and more deadly (mostly on the Lebanese side) in recent months. Hezbollah had been targeting Israeli military bases in the Golan Heights, when an apparently errant rocket struck the soccer field in Majdal Shams, a major Druze town killing 12 youths and injuring many others.

With the strike on Fuad Shukr, the Israelis wanted to send a strong message to the Hezbollah leadership that they are both vulnerable and that the IDF, despite months of combat, has the ability to inflict significant damage on Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold. There is political pressure within Israel to take a more muscular approach too, both in response to the incident in Majdal Shams and more generally to resolve the grave threat Hezbollah poses to Israeli communities near the Israel-Lebanon border.”

“How can current tensions be de-escalated?” Cook pondered.

“No doubt, U.S. diplomats and others active in the effort to negotiate an end to the Israel-Hamas war will do their best to try to avert an intensification of the regional conflict underway, but they will likely fail. The Iranians are vowing to avenge Haniyeh’s death and the Israelis are daring them and their proxies to strike. This is an unpredictable moment. It seems quite unlikely the actors will pull back from a devastating fight. This is the war for which they have all been preparing.”

I hasten to add that Steven A. Cook is a highly respected near-east affairs commentator. Fellow experts don’t necessarily agree with him.

Most of the bellicose rhetoric is emanating from Iran and its proxies. Israel invariably adopts its time-tested policy of ‘ambiguity’ regarding attacks attributed to the IDF, its security and military intelligence forces.

Just the same, there is no room for complacency! We are more cautious than usual, but not deterred from continuing our daily routine.

The current tension along our northern border brought to mind an almost forgotten cross-border incident.

In 1959 when I first arrived at the Hachshara farm near Shepparton, Victoria, Australia, I heard the story from a woman who in her teens was personally involved in the incident.

Margin note- In case you don’t know, Hachshara is a Hebrew word that literally means "preparation". The term is used for training programmes and agricultural centres in Europe and elsewhere. At these centres Zionist youth and young adults would learn vocational skills necessary for their Aliya to Israel and subsequent life in kibbutzim. Today they have largely been superseded by year programmes in Israel.

Shoshana and Dov Agmon were shlichim (emissaries) to Hashomer Hatzair in Australia. Shoshana recounted how in the early 1940’s she participated in a Hashomer Hatzair hike near the Lebanese border. At that time the border wasn’t clearly marked and without knowing it the group wandered into Lebanon. Before long they were spotted by a Lebanese border police patrol and arrested.

At this juncture I want to add a margin note: While the British Mandate for Palestine left hardly any cultural imprint when it ended in1948, the French Mandate for Lebanon has left a considerable cultural impact. As of 2004, some 20% of the population used French on a daily basis.

Back to Shoshana and her fellow hikers in Lebanon. Their predicament was somewhat alleviated when the French speaking Lebanese border gendarmes insisted on carrying the girls’ backpacks. Following a brief internment the British Liaison authority managed to secure the hikers release and they returned home without further event.

About eight years ago I met Shoshana again when I visited my sister-in-law at Sde Nitzan in the Gaza periphery area. She was surprised that I remembered the incident in Lebanon.  When I inquired after her recently, I heard that she died four years ago. Blessed be her memory.

 

Beni,

1st of August, 2024.