The al Ahli hospital explosion.

 

The adage – “My mind is made up. Don’t confuse with the facts,”

aptly fits the current war of words regarding the explosion that caused, as yet, an unknown number of deaths and injuries at the al Ahli hospital in Gaza.

Since then, I have been continuously revising and rewriting this text.

The al Ahli hospital was founded in 1882 in a remote corner of the Ottoman Empire, it is one of the oldest hospitals in Gaza and has been supported successively by various Protestant missions. However, today Christians are a tiny minority in Gaza, a mere 900 souls. It’s reasonable to assume that most, if not all of the hospital’s patients are Muslims.

The Jerusalem Post dedicated an editorial the Al-Ahli hospital explosion criticising news media outlets that were quick to blame Israel for the attack.

“Many of our colleagues in the international media immediately believed information provided by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry that an Israeli airstrike had killed hundreds of patients and hospital staff.

At 6:59 p.m. on Tuesday evening, an explosion shook al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City. Casualties were reported. Images started circulating of a large fire and pandemonium inside the hospital compound.                                                                                                                                  Within minutes, the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry announced that the hospital had been targeted by an Israeli airstrike and hundreds had been killed. And many of our colleagues in the international media copy-pasted the item, accepting it word for word. ‘Israeli strike kills hundreds in hospital, Palestinians say,’ reported The New York Times. ‘The Gaza Health Ministry says at least 500 people killed in an explosion at a hospital that it says was caused by an Israeli airstrike,’ announced the Associated Press. “The presumption of Israeli guilt was swift and near-absolute, broadcast to hundreds of millions around the world. Arab and Muslim leaders issued scathing condemnations of Israel. Jordan’s King Abdullah II decried the ‘ugly massacre perpetrated by Israel against innocent civilians’; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan slammed ‘the latest example of Israel’s attacks devoid of the most basic human values.’ The Jordanian government called off a planned summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority.

Crowds massed outside Israeli embassies and set Israeli flags aflame. Israel, for its part, responded with caution, with the IDF saying it was looking into the reports.

 At 10:08 p.m., the IDF announced that intelligence information indicated that the explosion was caused by a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket that had misfired.  Since then, the evidence absolving the IDF for the airstrike has mounted. Footage of the skies over Gaza just before before the explosion shows several rockets being launched in unison, with one separating from the rest and landing in Gaza, causing an explosion. The IDF revealed an intercepted conversation between two Hamas terror operatives confirming that it was an Islamic Jihad rocket that had hit the site. And both photos and drone footage from the site show limited damage that is plainly inconsistent with the results of an Israeli airstrike. 

The authors of the Jerusalem Post editorial advised their readers not to believe information released by the Gaza Health Ministry. Mainly, because that ministry – like every other government agency in Gaza – is subservient to Hamas and is used to advance its murderous agenda. Hamas knew immediately that it was a Palestinian rocket that had hit the hospital, but it nevertheless fabricated an Israeli airstrike in order to hide the truth. Journalists and news media outlets wield enormous power in the global conversation and they bear tremendous responsibility to verify the reports they receive. “

“The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine and shelter,” President Biden said at the end of his brief visit to Israel. “While vowing to continue to provide for Israel’s security needs and supporting Israel’s assessment that the explosion at the al-Ahli Hospital on Tuesday night was not the result of an Israeli airstrike, but of “an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza”.

However, Biden added that “if Hamas diverts or steals the assistance, they will have demonstrated once again that they have no concern for the welfare of the Palestinian people, and as a practical matter it will stop the international community from being able to provide this aid.”

Dr. Elai Rettig is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He specialises in energy geopolitics and national security. 

Quite recently Elai Rettig posted a survey of Gaza’s energy and water supply

Here are some of the comments he made: -

 As part of the ongoing “Swords of Iron” operation in Gaza, the Israeli Ministry of Energy announced on October 12, 2023, that it had cut off electricity, water, and diesel supply to the Gaza Strip.

During times of peace, 50% of the electricity in Gaza is provided by Israel through ten points of entry. Although technically, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is responsible for paying for the electricity supply to Gaza, it chooses instead to accumulate the debt until it is periodically written off by Israel. At present, the debt stands at 2 billion NIS (approximately 500 million USD).

The other half of Gaza’s electricity is generated independently. Gaza has one diesel-fuelled power plant that provides 25% of Gaza’s supply. The rest of the electricity is generated through a wide array of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and private diesel generators in residential areas, government buildings, and hospitals. During the day, around 25% of Gaza’s electricity is generated through PV panels, representing one of the world’s highest shares. This was made possible through multiple funding projects led by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and other intergovernmental organisations in the past decade. At night, private diesel generators replace the PV panels.

Despite these trends, the electricity infrastructure in Gaza is in deplorable condition. The population of Gaza receives an average of four hours per day of continuous electricity supply from the main grid. Much of this is due to the dilapidated electricity infrastructure in Gaza that was damaged during Operation Protective Edge in 2014. Though large sums in foreign aid were delivered to Hamas specifically to reconstruct the grid, Hamas has diverted the funds elsewhere and left the grid in its current condition. This has forced Gaza residents to seek private solutions like small-scale diesel generators and rooftop PV panels if they can afford them.

Consequently, the immediate effect of cutting off the electricity supply from Israel to Gaza is somewhat limited.

In addition to cutting off direct electricity supply, Israel has also announced that it has cut off the supply of diesel fuel to Gaza. During peacetime, Israel provides Gaza with diesel from the oil refineries in Haifa. Hamas also sometimes purchases more expensive diesel from Egypt that is transported by fuel tankers. Israel has announced that it has also blocked the Egyptian route, which puts a tight timeline on Gaza’s ability to continue to generate its own electricity. 

Incidentally, the Al-Ahli hospital’s electricity service functions sporadically, and often the hospital must run its 400-kilowatt generator for 16 hours a day. It costs $90 an hour to operate the generator.  Fortunately, the Episcopal Relief & Development Authority helps the hospital.

 The broader impact of a long-term power outage in Gaza will be on its water supply and sewage treatment, which cannot operate without continuous electricity supply. Israel supplies up to 10% of Gaza’s water consumption. The rest is produced through local reservoirs in Gaza, but about 75% of that water is not fit to drink and can only be used for irrigation. The EU provided funds to construct pipelines and a water treatment facility in Gaza to address this issue, but the water cannot flow through the pipelines without a continuous electricity supply. The problem is further aggravated by the fact that many segments of the water pipelines were removed recently by Hamas and converted into weapons. This forces large segments of the population in Gaza to rely on water trucks and private storage.

In terms of international law, Israel is walking a fine line. At present, Israel has not destroyed the power plant in Gaza or the capacity to resume electricity and water supply to the coastal enclave. So long as Israel can show that the supply cuts are a time-limited measure of war meant to hinder Hamas’s ability to operate and pressure it to release hostages, it would not be considered a war crime. However, as time passes, if Israel does not allow some diesel and water supply for hospitals and other essential needs, it may create a humanitarian crisis. This can potentially be designated as an illegal collective punishment. In addition, if Israel’s actions are perceived to be motivated by a desire to avenge the atrocities committed by Hamas, rather than a temporary tactical measure during the war, Israel might be accused of committing war crimes. Recent statements made by Israeli cabinet ministers, Knesset members, and security officials declaring that Israel’s goal is to “wipe Gaza off the map” are harmful to Israel’s ability to receive international legitimacy and may create severe legal consequences for senior Israeli officials after the war.

Middle East Affairs analysts doubt if it’s possible to rid Gaza of every Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Salafi terrorist. Even after we manage to ‘take out’ Mohammed Deif and Yehya Sinwar there will always be a cadre of rank-and-file sympathisers. The “Mowing the grass” policy has been ineffective. In the mean time the IDF isn’t in any hurry to start a land incursion. It needs to be meticulously planned and carefully considered.

In a piece he wrote for The Economist, Ehud Barak advocated a stage-by-stage incursion over a period of several weeks/months.

On our northern border with Lebanon there have been a number incidents involving exchanges of artillery and mortar fire. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened Israel several times.  So has his mentor Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi who at a meeting on Monday with his Russian and Turkish counterparts “warned against the continuation of crimes by the Zionist regime.”

Obviously, we take threats seriously, but neither Nasrallah nor Raisi are eager to fight right now.

Take care.

 

Beni,

19th of October, 2023

 

 

 

 

The next stage

 A week after Hamas launched a ferocious assault against Israeli communities in the Gaza periphery region a lot of questions remain unanswered. However, some things are a lot clearer now. It appears that details of the ‘battle plan’,  and especially the timing of the assault were a closely guarded secret known to very few in the terror group’s high command. Mohammed Deif the leader of Hamas's Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is known to have planned and organised the attack.  There have been claims that the decision to prepare the attack was taken jointly by Deif and Yehya Sinwar, the leader of the Hamas political wing in Gaza, but it’s clear that Deif was the C-in-C of the deadly assault.

Omri Brinner, an Israel and Middle East analyst at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona (ITSS) describing Mohammed Deif, said -

“As someone who has escaped multiple assassination attempts, Deif is the ‘ultimate survivor of Palestinian resistance’. His ability to evade Israeli intelligence services has earned him the nickname ‘the man with nine lives’.

Considered an international terrorist by the United States since 2015, Deif has led direct and constant threats to the internal security of Israel for over 30 years.

By maintaining an extremely low profile he has managed to survive. However, he is far from unscathed. Deif is said to have lost an eye, an arm, and a leg after Israeli attempts to assassinate him.

Jacob Eriksson, a specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the University of York,

said, "Militancy against Israel is a field with low life expectancy. It’s quite remarkable that he has been able to survive so long. He is a long-lasting stain on Israel's reputation of ‘taking out’ designated targets,"

Margin note: - By no stretch of the imagination is it possible to use ‘laundered terminology when referring to Hamas terrorists. Using innocuous terms such as, ‘freedom fighters’, ‘militant’s etc., accords them an unjustified measure of legitimacy.

So, let’s call a spade a spade, they are terrorists of the worst kind.

I think my daughter Daphna Whitmore described them best in a piece she wrote for a New Zealand website. But then I’m prejudiced, don’t take my word for it, read it. Here’s the link-

https://plainsight.nz/derangement/

 

As invariably happens when the IDF regroups after terrorist attacks and carries the offensive to the enemy, various self-righteous, so-called humanitarian organisations ‘come out of the woodwork’ determined to foil Israeli counter attacks. Here are a few examples: -

The Patriarchs and heads of Churches in Jerusalem call for the immediate cessation of all violence and military activities, reiterating that everything is lost with war.

Pope Francis made an’ impassioned appeal for peace in the Holy Land during the Angelus on Sunday. He is one of the several voices from Churches around the world calling for an immediate de-escalation of the violence unleashed on 7 October by an Hamas attack which prompted Israel to issue an official declaration of war (“Operation Swords of Iron”).

The Centre for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) calls for an immediate de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed groups and urges all parties to cease their attacks against civilians.

On Monday the World Bank urged a "rapid de-escalation" of the fighting in ... Gaza.

Note the repeated use of the term de-escalation.

In a New York Times opinion piece posted on Friday UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged Israel to “reconsider” its warning to civilians in Gaza that they should leave the northern part of the Gaza Strip within 24 hours.

The message, at midnight on Friday, indicated that the IDF could be readying to launch a ground invasion after days of aerial bombardment in response to the massive Hamas onslaught a week ago,

The warning applies to UN staff and those sheltered in UN facilities in those areas.

“The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” a UN spokesperson said. “The United Nations strongly appeals for any such order, if confirmed, to be rescinded avoiding what could transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation.”

Roughly 1.1 million Palestinians live north of Wadi Gaza, according to the UN.

(Wadi Gaza is a ravine that roughly divides between north and south Gaza.)

 

Earlier Friday, the White House said the Israeli warning was a “tall order” adding that the United States understands Israel is trying to give civilians “fair warning.”

More than 330,000 people have been displaced in Gaza since Israel began its bombardment of the enclave, the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said early Thursday.

In a statement, OCHA further expressed its concerns over the damage of civilian infrastructure in Gaza. Israel began a blockade of the densely populated enclave, cutting electricity, fuel, and water supplies.

"The cumulative number of displaced people increased by 30 percent over the past 24 hours, now totalling 338,934, of whom over two thirds are taking shelter in UNRWA schools." The statement read.

Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) said it is aiming to provide "a critical food lifeline to over 800,000 people."

 Occasionally cartographers forget to demarcate Israel and are hard put to find a space for the Gaza Strip. This understandable oversight is easily explained away.

That narrow sliver of land adjacent to the Western Negev is only 41 km long.

By comparison the famous King Ranch in South Texas is nine times larger than the Gaza Strip. Admittedly, the ranch isn't one contiguous plot of land. Nevertheless, the contiguous  area is a lot larger than that narrow finger poking into Israel from Sinai.

King Ranch is a mere garden plot compared to some of the Australian sheep and cattle stations.

If it were possible to carve out that small part of the east Mediterranean coastline and transport it to Australia, it would fit  into Alexandra Station in the Northern Territory 67 times and 94  times into the Anna Creek station in South Australia, the world's largest ranch.

I doubt many Israelis would miss the loss, but I'm sure Australians would regret their gain. 

Take care.

Beni.

14th of October, 2023

 

Eyeless in Gaza.

 

I’ve borrowed the title of this week’s post “Eyeless in Gaza” from Aldous Huxley’s novel (1936) who in turn borrowed it from a phrase in John Milton's “Samson Agonistes.” Like the legendary Samson in Gaza, we were blinded by a false sense of security.

 

I’m quite familiar with the Gaza periphery, its communities and terrain. I was a member of Kibbutz Nirim for four years when I settled in Israel in 1961.

My eldest daughter, Daphna, was born there.

At that time, Gaza was an Egyptian enclave and the Egyptians were our enemies. Since then, a lot has changed. New communities have sprung up, Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and Hamas controls the Gaza Strip

Later, I left Nirim and moved to Ein Harod.

I have family and friends at Sde Nitzan, one of the Gaza periphery communities. Over the years we visited them often, visits that enabled me to continually update my “mental map” of the area.

That being said, I am hard put to understand what happened there.

The round-the-clock TV panel discussions only tend to add to the confusion.

Surfing the internet hasn’t been too productive either.

Invariably commentators, observers and experts of all kinds have likened   Israel’s current imbroglio to past military intelligence failings. They say it was our “Pearl Harbour Moment”, Israel’s “9/11” and of course, the Yom Kippur War intelligence fiasco.

Let’s forget comparisons and concentrate on how Hamas managed to fool us.

In my humble opinion Lt. Col. (res.)Peter Lerner, a former IDF spokesperson managed better than many other observers to explain how we were hoodwinked.

I am including here some of his conclusions: -

“What is clear, is that Israel’s advanced technology, ironclad defence systems, and some of the best intelligence units in the world, faltered.

How did Israel, a nation always on alert, find itself in this precarious position? 

Mainly because of complacency rooted in a perception of our own invincibility, a failure to adapt to evolving threats, and in my opinion a severe underestimation of Hamas’ capability and resolve, what is called in Israel ‘the concept.’

Our society is in a state of shock and disbelief. Not now, but eventually the government and the defence establishment will be held accountable.

Israel's robust defence system, the Iron Dome, has successfully intercepted countless rockets over the past decade. Combined with a billion-dollar barrier built along the 65-kilometre demarcation line with Gaza, a false perception of infallible security was created. A perception that Hamas is not interested in war with Israel because of the price the organisation and the people of Gaza have paid over the last 10 years. This might have led to a skewed sense of invulnerability even against land-based invasions, overshadowing the need for ground defence preparedness.

Historically, the threat from Hamas has been asymmetric warfare, with rockets, tunnels, and suicide bombers. The concept of a large-scale land invasion might have been discounted as a viable threat, given Hamas's resource constraints and Israel's military superiority. There might have been errors or misinterpretations of data regarding Hamas's intentions or capabilities, echoing the intelligence failures of the Yom Kippur War.

Israel might not have conceptualised a direct, bold land invasion by Hamas.

Once the dust settles, lessons need to be learnt in order to prevent future miscalculations, we will need a holistic re-evaluation. 

While air defence is crucial, ground and cyber defences should not be neglected.

Israel must continually reassess its threat models, understanding that adversaries can and will adapt their tactics.

Bridging the gaps in intelligence gathering, interpretation, and dissemination is imperative. This might mean investing in more human intelligence on the ground and fostering better communication between agencies.

Israel should periodically review past mistakes, both its own and others', ensuring that complacency never sets in again.

It’s appropriate at this juncture to include other sources: -    

Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) quoting a number of experts and former intelligence officials said,

“The Hamas assault by air, land and sea raised questions as to why U.S. intelligence agencies apparently did not see it coming.” In response, U.S. officials said that if the Israelis knew an attack was imminent, they did not share it with Washington.

Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Centre, a nonprofit that focuses on global security issues, said Israel had to bear the main responsibility for failing to anticipate Saturday’s attack.

“Israel has exquisite, world-class intelligence collection and analysis capabilities and would have a far better picture of what’s going on in its own backyard. This one falls squarely on the Israelis,” he said.

“I’m truly astonished for something of this magnitude to go down and for the Israelis to have no clue that it was about to happen. I’m just speechless,” Clarke said, adding, “They have had sources inside these Palestinian groups for years.”

                                    

At this uber-political time in Israel’s history when the Prime Minister and his government have conducted a campaign against the faith of the public in all the institutions, the courts, the police, the military and the civil service. It is imperative to strengthen the institutions not weaken them.  

The Hamas land invasion is a wakeup call. Terrorist organisations and many in our region have still not come to terms with Israel’s existence. Many of them, like Hamas, are bent on Israel’s destruction. Most of them are incapable of destroying Israel. Nevertheless, this war underscores the timeless lesson that no matter how advanced or prepared a nation believes itself to be, there's always room for improvement, always a blind spot, and always an evolving threat lurking in the shadows. The cost of overlooking these lessons is tragically high.

I want to conclude on a brighter note.

All over Israel people have voluntarily organised and sent packages of food and clothing to army units lacking them. Places not in the line of fire, like my own kibbutz are hosting families evacuated from the Gaza periphery communities.   By some accounts, 360,000 reserve army soldiers have been mobilised. In some units the turnout exceeded 100% (people voluntarily reporting for duty).

The call up has been mainly in preparation for a ground operation in Gaza. The first cargo plane carrying “advanced armaments” from the US ``designed to facilitate significant military operations” landed in Israel on Tuesday night.

According to the Financial Times the US is sending ammunition and interceptors to replenish the Iron Dome air defence system. It has also moved a naval carrier strike group, including its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, from near Italy to the eastern Mediterranean to deter the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon. In addition, it is believed   that it will supplement Israeli surveillance in the area.  

The Financial Times also reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu has suggested that civilians ‘leave’ the Gaza strip, stoking concern in neighbouring Egypt. The US is discussing safe passage for civilians with its regional allies, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday, without providing details. Egypt is unwilling to fully reopen the Rafah crossing, the only exit out of Gaza. The UN will try to set up a hub for refugees near Rafah while trying to negotiate a humanitarian corridor, Sullivan said. I hasten to add that Israel has no intention of conquering or depopulating the Gaza Strip. It merely wants to degrade Hamas’ military capability and at the same time avoid harming the civilian population.

Finally, I want to thank my family and friends abroad for their concern regarding our safety. The last time I checked we were all safe, sound and accounted for.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,         

                                                         11^th of October, 2023.

 

 Sukkot

We are celebrating Succot, variously referred to as Sukkot also known as Sukkos or Succoth.

The United Church of God is holding its own Succot festivities this week. As are a number of other Christian denominations, mainly in Jerusalem.

I noticed that in one of their itineraries there is a conducted tour of the Monastery of the Cross located in the Valley of the Cross, below the Israel Museum and the Knesset. Legend has it that the monastery was erected on the burial spot of Adam's head from which grew the tree that gave its wood for the cross on which Jesus was crucified. Now that’s really mind boggling!

Alongside our Sukkot celebrations Christians from around the world come to Jerusalem to celebrate the Feast of Tabernacles, sponsored by the International Christian Embassy in Jerusalem, an evangelical organisation founded in 1980. 

According to ICEJ’s programme - “The Feast of Tabernacles this year will begin with two event-filled days in Galilee, including prayers by the shores of the Sea of Galilee. Then the participants will travel to Jerusalem for five days of festive events, starting with the traditional Roll Call of the Nations in the Pais Arena. There will be more prayers, morning seminars, Communion at the Garden Tomb, the ever-popular Jerusalem March, and time allotted for touring biblical sites. The Feast will conclude with a special solidarity gathering in the Negev with JNF representatives and residents of the communities along the Gaza border.”

The Jerusalem March began in 1955, as a four-day march to Jerusalem for 200 IDF soldiers and 70 civilians. The march turned into a mass event two years later, with 5,000 soldiers marching, and by 1966, it attracted 15,000 participants.

Represented at the Jerusalem March every year is a large contingent of evangelical Christians from around the world, most of whom are associated with the International Christian Embassy of Jerusalem (ICEJ).

The Jerusalem March this year was marred by the contemptable spitting incident perpetrated by a number of Orthodox Jews.

Police arrested five suspects on Wednesday morning last week for spitting at Christian pilgrims in the Old City.

One of the suspects appeared in a video where a group of Orthodox Jews are seen spitting at Christian pilgrims as they carry the Sukkot four species through the Old City. The other suspects spat at Christian visitors later on and were arrested immediately. 

The video was shared on social media, evoking condemnation from public officials, including the prime minister and the chief rabbis.

Israel Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai criticised acts of religious bigotry in Jerusalem, amid rising harassment of Christian pilgrims and priests in the city.

“Any incident of hate on religious grounds is a stain that spoils the special holiday atmosphere throughout Israel and Jerusalem in particular.” he said.

Ahead of the march, the International Christian Embassy in Jerusalem put out a statement thanking Israeli officials for "their strong statements of support for religious freedom in this country and their disapproval of recent acts meant to humiliate or harm Christians."

However, ICEJ said Christians must also "admit there is a much longer, painful history of Christian hostility towards the Jewish people.

But thankfully, there has been a sea change in Christian attitudes concerning the nation and people of Israel in our day," the statement continued. "The vast majority of Israelis we encounter know this and have warmly welcomed us in Jerusalem for Sukkot once again. We truly appreciate sharing in the joy of this unique biblical festival with our Jewish friends and will not be deterred from loving and standing with Israel." 

 

 

Pro-Israel supporters take part in the annual Jerusalem March during Sukkot ,2017

A sharp transition to current events, and of course the Saudi peace deal

I think Fareed Zakaria described it best: -

“A peace deal between the Saudis and Israelis could change everything.

The word that probably best describes the Biden administration’s efforts in public policy is “ambitious.” Most of its initiatives — from infrastructure funding to support for green transformation to aiding Ukraine — are big and bold.

Now, the White House is trying to put together another major effort that, if successful, will be a game changer: the Saudi-Israel normalization. There are many complications that could derail the negotiations. But if a deal comes together, the Middle East’s strongest military and most technologically advanced power ( Israel) will be allied to the region’s strongest economic power (Saudi Arabia) — which is still the swing supplier of the world’s oil — under a U.S. security architecture. That would be a major win for Washington.

For more than a decade, the United States has been searching for a role in the Middle East that is not the old quasi-imperial one and yet secures U.S. interests in this crucial region, allowing Washington to focus on the larger challenges posed by Russia and China. By organizing a soft alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia,  President Biden can rely on these two countries to anchor the region economically and militarily.

 There is a price, of course, and it is substantial. Saudi Arabia wants a U.S security guarantee  and U.S. technology to build a nuclear energy industry. That includes the domestic enrichment of uranium, which the United States has never facilitated in another country. (Of course, many countries with home-grown nuclear industries enrich their own uranium, from India to France). My understanding, based on sources in the U.S. government, is that the two sides are close to agreement on the nuclear issue — which will likely involve a U.S.-controlled enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia.

The security umbrella is reportedly not going to contain a version of NATO’s Article 5  guarantee, but rather a softer commitment to respond and take action if Saudi Arabia is attacked. This will require careful language to ensure that the clause is not invoked if Saudi Arabia precipitates a crisis, as it has in recent years. It would have to include some assurances that the Saudis will accommodate U.S. interests on the price of oil, exclude Chinese military facilities from its territory and keep denominating its oil in dollars. Assuming these issues can be overcome, Washington should open up its security umbrella to Saudi Arabia.

The truth is that, ever since the Carter Doctrine of 1980 (which declared the Persian Gulf an area of “vital” interest to the United States), Washington has recognized that intervention in the gulf region by a hostile power would threaten the economic lifeblood of the industrial world. And when such an attack took place against Kuwait in 1990, directly threatening Saudi Arabia, the United States did in fact come to the rescue of Riyadh.

The largest challenge is with Israel. This deal would be concluded with the most extreme right-wing government in Israel’s history, one that is trying to alter the constitutional makeup of the country and moving  to make a Palestinian state an impossibility. But Saudi Arabia and the United States have a lot of leverage: Israel needs this deal more than they do — and, in particular, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces mass protests, an ongoing trial and a restless coalition of extremists. If Washington and Riyadh work together, they might be able to pull off a new U.S.-Saudi-Israel alliance that could make greater progress on Palestinian rights than has taken place in decades.

Both Riyadh and Washington should make clear to Netanyahu that he has to take hard steps to keep open the path for a two-state solution. That means a freeze on  expansion of Jewish settlements  in the West Bank, an end to the legalization of illegal outposts  and the opening up of  areas currently under Israeli control  to allow Palestinians to expand their towns in the West Bank.

This would enrage Netanyahu’s most extreme coalition partners, who want to annex all of the West Bank. But there is a way out of the impasse. As Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, told me: ‘Biden should present Bibi with a strategic grand bargain that includes significant action on the Palestinian issue. Let Bibi figure out how to manage his coalition or how to break it and form a new one. What Biden is proposing is good for the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Extremists in Netanyahu’s government should not be allowed to veto it.’

Netanyahu is banking on the notion that the Saudi government actually doesn’t give a damn about the Palestinians and will sell them out for token rhetorical concessions. But he might be mistaken in this assumption. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has kept his mullahs and religious conservatives at bay while he has opened up the country and implemented major economic and social reforms. He might not want to anger them by abandoning the Palestinians, as well. And if he insists, it’s possible that Biden will back him up; some Democratic senators will probably make it clear to Netanyahu that the price of Senate ratification is real movement on a two-state solution. In that case, Netanyahu will have to decide what he wants more — a truly historic advance in Israel’s security or keeping afloat his rickety, controversial, extremist coalition.”

As I said I think Fareed Zakaria described the pros and cons of the proposed Saudi deal best.  I welcome your comments.

 

Chag Sameach.

 

Beni,     5^th of October, 2023.