Thursday 28 April 2011

The Palestinian dilemma

"Few tombs on earth command the veneration of so many races and men of diverse creeds as this of Joseph. Samaritan and Jew, Muslim and Christian alike, revere it, and honor it with their visits," wrote Mark Twain after visiting the patriarch's tomb during his Holy Land tour in 1869.

Joseph's tomb 1839 -David Roberts


For almost eighteen hundred years visitors to the Holy Land have mentioned the tomb near Nablus. Some of them unquestioningly accepted it as the last resting place of the shepherd with the coat of many colours, while others referred to it as the "reputed' site of Joseph's tomb."

Although, as Mark Twain remarked, the site was revered by Muslims too, Islamic tradition places Joseph's tomb in Hebron, next to the Cave of the Patriarchs. In recent years, for reasons that are more political than theological, the Palestinian Authority has reiterated a claim that the tomb belongs to another Joseph. Namely, a certain Sheikh Yussuf Dawiqat, who so they say, was laid to rest there two hundred years ago. Further to that, they planned to build a mosque at the site, much like their attempt to have Rachel's tomb near Bethlehem declared a mosque and Muslim holy site.

I confess I'm not overly concerned about who is buried there. I mention the matter here because of an incident that occurred near the site early last Sunday morning. Palestinian police opened fire on a group of Israelis who sneaked in to pray by the tomb. One person was killed and four others were wounded.

The site is inside Palestinian-controlled Nablus where Orthodox Jews arrive periodically to pray under Israeli army escort in coordination with the Palestinian police.

Sunday’s visit by members of the Breslov Hassidic sect was unauthorised.. Palestinian officials claim that a policeman opened fire at the worshipers after “identifying suspicious movements.”

The incident was aggravated by the fact that the victim Ben-Yosef Livnat, was a nephew of Israeli cabinet minister Limor Livnat.

The foreign news media hardly related to the incident. Understandably the events in Syria, the ongoing struggle in Libya and of course the royal wedding have claimed most of the prime-time and space this week.

Since then the Palestinian Authority arrested four policemen. The most we can expect is a perfunctory trial and a jail sentence for the policeman who shot the worshippers. He surely knows that he won't languish long in jail. He can rely on the “revolving door principle”, namely, the quick "get out of jail" precedent employed by the Palestinian Authority.

In the meantime some vigilante settlers have been exacting retribution for the killing, a payback commonly referred to as the “price tab.” There were attacks on Palestinian property near Nablus, including the burning of a car, an attempt to burn a house, and stone-throwing at Palestinian vehicles.

While this was going on the rival Fatah and Hamas movements were busy concluding an initial agreement ending a four-year-old rift that has left them divided between rival governments in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Now that there appears to be a rapprochement on the Palestinian side Netanyahu says, "You cannot have peace with both ( factions), because Hamas aspires to destroy the State of Israel, and it says so openly."

Netanyahu isn't the only one who doesn't like the idea of a united Palestinian entity with Hamas on board. Most of the Israeli political spectrum have toed the line with the prime minister on this matter.

Arab affairs analyst Ron Ben Yishai claims that Mahmoud Abbas said the Iranians were trying to sabotage any reconciliation agreement between the Palestinian factions

Perhaps they fear that a reunited Palestinian entity will have a better chance of gaining statehood in September when their appeal for recognition is due to be decided by the UN. Arguably with the matter of Palestinian statehood resolved after September Hamas will find it increasingly difficult to justify attacking Israeli targets. A mellowed, moderate institutionalised Hamas doesn't serve the Iranian attack by proxy strategy. However, a Hamas spokesman was quick to reaffirm the organisation’s intransigent position regarding Israel and the peace process. The Iranians contrary to speculation congratulated the Palestinian leaders on the new agreement. It’s possible that they accepted it as a fait accompli, or maybe, knowing that the framework accord ignores the major differences that caused the rift in the first place they believe it is bound to unravel before long.

Ben Yishai says that most people in the Israeli intelligence community as well as independent analysts believed there wouldn’t be a Fatah-Hamas rapprochement. However news of an Egyptian brokered initiative caused them to change their assessments.

As a result, Wednesday's announcement of a reconciliation agreement, that includes setting up an interim government, “clear objectives” and a date for Palestinian elections surprised everyone. Ben Yishai speculated that, “Israel will have to reassess the situation, among other things because what paved the way to the surprising deal may have been a major Egyptian concession that convinced Hamas to sign the agreement.

Such a concession could be in the form of opening the Rafah border crossing to the free movement of goods and people and the lifting of other restrictions placed on Hamas. Another concession could be an Egyptian pledge to endorse Hamas’ demand that Abbas and the PA stop harassing the group’s West Bank infrastructure and grant it some control within the PLO. These are merely assumptions because the details of the agreement haven’t been published yet.”

Jackson Diehl writing in the Washington Post (“Palestinians launch their revolution.”) said, “Many Palestinians have long wanted an end to the Fatah-Hamas feud and the divided Palestinian government. But for Israel and the Obama administration, the reconciliation spells a disaster. According to reports Wednesday, it probably will mean the end of the West Bank administration headed by Salaam Fayyad, a technocrat highly respected by both Americans and Israelis. If so, Congress will almost certainly suspend $400 million in annual U.S. aid. It could mean the reorganization of Fatah’s U.S.-trained security forces, which have worked with Israel to keep the peace in the West Bank for the last several years, and their eventual integration with the cadres of the Iranian-backed Hamas.

The deal will also end any serious prospect of peace talks--since Hamas is most unlikely to accept longstanding Western demands that it accept Israel, renounce violence and abide by past Israeli-Palestinian agreements.”

The Christian Science Monitor correspondent in Cairo placed the agreement in a broader context,”The breakthrough comes as regional change has jarred calcified Palestinian positions. Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have watched regional revolutions and held small protests against their own leaders, whom they see as unaccountable and corrupt. They've also urged the factions to put aside their differences for the sake of creating a Palestinian state. That has dragged Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas's Khaled Mashaal back to the negotiating table.

Yet many observers are skeptical that the deal will hold, particularly when it comes to implementation.”

A former Israeli government aid said he is convinced that desperation drove Mahmoud Abbas to seek the accord with Hamas. However, "Hamas on board" might prove to be more of a liability than an asset. Hamas has been blacklisted as a terrorist group. Its inclusion in the Palestinian government could possibly deter some nations from recognising the united Palestinian entity.

Ever since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip, in June 2007, the Egyptians, Syrians and other elements have repeatedly tried to facilitate a reconciliation between Fatah/the Abbas-led Palestinian Authority and the Hamas’ government in Gaza. The attempts failed, despite both sides voicing their desire to end the division. During his visit to Tunisia two weeks ago, Abbas complained that Hamas was thwarting the talks, even though the Egyptian intermediaries had introduced changes to an earlier draft agreement in line with Hamas’ demands.

What hindered the deal in the past was Hamas’ demand to integrate into the PLO at an almost equal status as Fatah. This would grant Hamas the possibility to abort any agreement between Israel and Abbas. The unity deal asserts that Hamas will be joining the PLO but its relative strength in the organisation is unknown so far.

If the accord permits the integration of Hamas military operatives in the Palestinian Authority’s security forces, it will bring an end to the effective security cooperation between Israel and the PA and also end effective anti-Hamas operations by the PA in the West Bank. Not only Hamas’ terror infrastructure may be rebuilt as a result, but also its political infrastructure. However, this would require much time, and that may very well be the reason why Hamas agreed to postpone PA elections in Gaza, and the West Bank by a year, in order to consolidate its position and solicit additional support. .

The Christian Science Monitor report concludes,

“All that remains is to see whether Hamas agrees to the conditions set forth by the Quartet, which demands that the group recognise the State of Israel, refrain from violence, and honour past agreements signed between the PA and Israel.

As the full details of the reconciliation agreement are not yet known, it’s too early to judge its practical implications. In any case, it does not bode well for Israel, because it enables Hamas to utilize more powerful levers in order to thwart a long-term political agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. “

It seems likely that the current upheaval in Syria, which hosts Hamas’s politburo, influenced the decision to agree to the rapprochement. .

Veteran journalist Shimon Shiffer reasoned in Yediot Ahronot, Should the Palestinian reconciliation agreement materialise, Israel would not be able to count on the international community for support. As it is, European states are already ripe for dialogue with Hamas, and the only thing that prevented direct, open contacts with the group so far was the fear of America’s response.”

The dynamic events occurring in the region and now very close to us have hardly affected our daily routine. Admittedly we worry, especially the people at the helm who have the awful responsibility for the nation’s security. During these troubled times I’m thankful for our military might. I hope it will continue to serve as an effective deterrent.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 28th of April, 2011.

Thursday 21 April 2011

Rules of engagement



In






In reporting the spate of uprisings in the Arab World the printed and electronic news media have supplemented their accounts with cartographic aids, both regular and interactive maps. After all finding your way across North Africa through the Middle East as far as Iran isn’t easy. Occasionally the cartographers forget to demarcate Israel and are hard put to find space for the Gaza Strip. This understandable oversight is easily explained away. That narrow sliver of land adjacent to the western Negev is only 41 km long and between 6 and 12 km wide. By comparison the famous King Ranch in South Texas is nine times larger than the Gaza Strip. Admittedly the ranch isn’t one single contiguous plot of land; nevertheless its contiguous area is a lot larger than that narrow finger poking into Israel from Sinai.

King Ranch is a mere garden plot compared to some of the Australian sheep and cattle stations. If it were possible to carve out that small part of the east Mediterranean coastline and transport it to Australia it would fit into Alexandria Station in the Northern Territory more than 67 times and more than 94 times into the Anna Creek Station in South Australia, the world's largest ranch.

I doubt if many Israelis would miss the loss and I’m sure the Australians would regret their gain.

While there are more cattle than people in King Ranch and the Australian cattle stations, the Gaza Strip has few cattle and arguably the highest human population density in the world.

Three years ago a burning love for the Palestinian cause and an equal dislike for Israel drove Vittorio Arrigoni an Italian activist and central figure in the pro-Palestinian International Solidarity Movement to move to Gaza. Prior to his murder last week I had never heard of him. For the sake of convenience I preferred to lump the IMS together with other pro-Palestinian support groups and knew very little about it. Furthermore I knew very little about his captors and murderers, the al-Tawhid wal-Jihad faction, one of the Salafi groups ideologically akin to al- Qaeda.

Journalist Osama al Sharif related to Arrigoni’s murder in the English language daily Arab NewsThe execution of Italian peace activist, Vittorio Arrigoni, in Gaza last week by a Palestinian jihadist group has dealt a heavy blow to Hamas' rule and authority. The killing of Arrigoni has focused attention on the rise of Salafist jihadist groups in Gaza and elsewhere.”

Osama al Sherif cited the clashes that took place recently in Zerqa, Jordan when hundreds of militant Salafists confronted police and other protesters using bats, knives and daggers. “More than 80 people were injured, some of them seriously, the majority of them members of the public security forces. It was the bloodiest confrontation after weeks of mostly peaceful protests by Jordanians from all walks of life who were demanding political reforms and an end to corruption.”….

“There are worrying signs that Salafist jihadism movements in the Arab world are suddenly regrouping and once again launching themselves on the scene in the wake of popular uprisings that have been sweeping the region.”

A few weeks ago Arab affairs analyst Ron Ben Yishai described the situation in Gaza as near anarchy. In the past the Hamas ruling authority was a little ambivalent regarding the armed struggle against Israel. After Operation Cast Lead it maintained an ostensible ceasefire but permitted its own military wing Izz al-Din al-Qassam and various dissident groups, mainly Islamic Jihad to continue sporadic firing of mortars and rockets at targets in Israel. Attempts to place roadside bombs along the separation fence and burrow tunnels under the fence were also part of their activities tolerated by the Hamas leadership

The political leadership in Gaza, led by Ismail Haniyeh, is responsible for the safety and welfare of non-combatants and is interested in a lull. However, the organisation’s military wing, Izz al-Din al-Qassam, and the group’s leadership in Damascus have a different view. They are interested in “limited warfare” that will not force Israel to embark on a Cast Lead-style operation, but prove to the Palestinian street and to the patrons in Syria and Iran that the “armed struggle for Palestine’s liberation” goes on.

A commonly held opinion argues that, notwithstanding Richard Goldstone’s partial retraction, the UN Human Rights Council report bearing his name still tends to deter Israel from launching another Cast Lead Operation.

However Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh knows that the Goldstone Report deterrent has a limit. Hamas anticipates Israeli retaliation for attacks on Israeli communities and towns. The response is never a knee-jerk reaction it is always a carefully considered retaliation aimed primarily at the mortar and rocket firing teams, known munitions stores and smuggling tunnels.

Hamas has never accepted Israeli pre-emptive attacks as part of the rules of retaliation. Ron Ben Yishai claims that these hit-them-before-they-hit-us attacks hurt the terrorist groups most, deterring them from engaging in a full scale war of attrition. They are especially bothered by the targeted assassinations carried out when the IDF identifies what it refers to as “operational opportunities.”

Often high ranking operatives are hit in these attacks. They harm the team’s morale and tend to erode the terror groups’ prestige and their ability to carry out “high quality attacks.”

“On the other hand,” says Ben Yishai, “Hamas and Islamic Jihad show relative understanding and restraint to IDF operations aimed at targeting a cell during or immediately after the course of an attack or while it fires at Israel.”

“Just the same,” he says, “Israel has no intention of accepting the terrorists’ ‘rules of engagement.’ Accepting them will only encourage them to scale up their attacks.

Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas sent out feelers to Hamas leadership in Gaza seeking a rapprochement. Ahead of obtaining UN approval for the declaration of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders in September this year. A united West Bank and Gaza Strip entity has a better chance of gaining approval.

In the meantime Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu plans to accept an invitation to address Congress next month. According to Helene Cooper the White House correspondent for the New York Times Prime Minister Netanyahu will make use of the occasion to present a new proposal to reopen the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Netanyahu has to do something to derail the proposed UN resolution approving the setting up of a Palestinian state. He also wants to make his own proposal ahead of a US initiative, the rumoured Obama peace plan.

For almost seventy years the day of the Pesach Seder at Ein Harod involved a great deal of preparation. Our traditional “Cutting of the Omer Ceremony” was held just two hours before the Seder. Now the ceremony takes place the day after the Seder enabling maximum participation by members and guests.

I have attached a few photos taken at the ceremony. A few years ago I described the ceremony in the following words

“Part of our wheat crop is cut to make silage and the rest is harvested for seed. One small corner of the wheat fields is set aside for the symbolic ‘Cutting of the Omer’ ceremony which takes place the day after the Seder. The ceremony is unique to Israel’s farming community, namely many kibbutzim and a number of the larger Moshav communities.

The ceremony has been described as a revival of a custom or practice that took place during the Second Temple period. However, there are few details of how it was celebrated. Nevertheless, the modern "Omer” ceremony has taken a bare reference and embellished it, draping it with the epic of the Jewish agrarian renaissance, the return to our ancestral soil.

The Omer ceremony has changed little since its inception and remains essentially the same.

With the passage of time the combine harvester has replaced the scythe, but then the scythe was never used to cut the wheat or barley harvest in ancient times .It serves as a symbolic representation of the sickle.

All this doesn't detract from the beautiful panorama of the wheat-field facing the valley and the mountain, the lilting melodies, the dancers and the swishing of the scythes. They have all become a tradition, an inseparable part of the secular celebration of the Pesach festival.”

Have a good weekend

Beni 21st of April, 2011.

Thursday 14 April 2011

Thoughts on Exodus


Schematic depiction of the Iron Dome System

This week I have Pesach on my mind, more to the point I am preoccupied with the kibbutz Pesach Seder. As usual I am entrusted with the seating arrangements for the kibbutz Seder. Fitting several hundred people into the communal dining room with the aid of computer aided drafting software is a relatively easy task. However, accommodating special needs and satisfying individual requests requires ingenuity and a few low-tech hands-on adjustments.

At this moment similar Seder placement puzzles are being solved all over Israel. I'm sure other seating planners are also making final adjustments to their floor plans so that the member with the gammy knee, the obese aunt from Ramat Gan and the mothers with carriages and strollers will all be seated by an aisle or an exit.

This year the recent Gaza flare-up has caused preparations for Pesach to be especially defence related. During the heightening exchanges between the rocket firing teams in Gaza and the IDF some observers warned that the escalating violent exchanges could easily develop into a full scale offensive. The Iron Dome’s successful interception of Grad rockets fired from the Gaza Strip at Ashkelon and Beer Sheva and the subsequent detection and annihilation of the teams that fired the rockets seemed to have a deterrent effect, or so we thought. The Gaza terrorist groups then tried using a new addition to their weapons arsenal, the Kornet anti-tank missile. When the first Kornet missed hitting an IDF armoured vehicle another team fired at an Israeli school bus causing light injuries to the driver and seriously injuring a 16 year old passenger Incidents involving casualties tend to aggravate the already tense atmosphere and further escalate hostilities. However, contrary to expectations the situation didn't get out of hand. The IDF retaliatory actions were fierce and caused the Hamas leadership to call for a ceasefire.

Given the initial reluctance of both sides to upgrade the confrontation to the campaign level, especially now so close to Pesach, an understood cessation of hostilities is in effect.

The two Iron Dome units have become quite a tourist attraction. Now that the situation in the south has calmed somewhat people from all over Israel have been visiting the teams operating the two units. Posing for photographs and being plied with refreshments brought by the visitors has become part of the new heroes’ daily routine.

Criticism of the Iron Dome System has been levelled mainly at the high cost of the interceptors and the limitations of its response in the face of a large barrage of Grad rockets. One critic claimed that the recent volley of rockets fired at Ashkelon and Beer Sheva was intended by Hamas to test the system's response in order to prepare for a major barrage in the future.

Since the uprising in Egypt, the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt is less of an obstacle. Smuggling of armaments and goods continues unhampered by the Egyptian border police. The political atmosphere in Egypt has changed. Calls by opposition groups for improved relations with Iran and Syria and the consequent worsening of relations with Israel worry us and please Hamas.

The worsening situation in Syria also worries us. "Israel fears the alternative if Syria's Assad falls," reasoned Los Angeles Times correspondent Edmund Sanders in a recent report from Jerusalem. Sanders failed to get a response from the tight-lipped Israeli government spokespersons or even from our eager for photo-op cabinet ministers. He said they fear any official comment would be counter productive given the strong anti-Israel sentiments in the Arab world. Expounding further Saunders said that although Syria is one of Israel's strongest enemies, it has nevertheless been predictable and relatively stable.

He did however manage to get a brief comment from Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, the Defence Ministry's policy director "Officially it's better to avoid any reaction and watch the situation," Gilad said. Maybe it was wishful thinking when he predicted Assad's regime would survive the present unrest. An opinion to the contrary was expressed by a leading Israeli Arab affairs analyst who predicted that if the demonstrations in Syria spread to Homs and Damascus Assad’s regime would collapse. “Privately, Israeli officials confirmed that although Assad is no friend, he's probably better than the immediate alternatives, which could include civil war, an Iraq-style insurgency or an Islamist takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood.” Said Saunders.
Today, ahead of Pesach 50,000 Israelis boarded flights to a variety of overseas destinations. In all about half a million Israelis are expected to leave the country over the Pesach week. There is a proportionately smaller influx of Jews coming to Israel for Pesach.

It’s about this time that the trivial details associated with Pesach appear in the narrow columns of the inner pages of our newspapers. How many tons of matzot , gefilte fish and other culinary delights will be consumed next week. Some columnists will translate everything into calories and suggest how we can shed the extra pounds once we return to our normal routine.

Our minority communities often feature in these news items. Restaurants in Nazareth, Osfia, Dalyat el Carmel and other towns will do well serving Jewish customers seeking gastronomic respite. This year I was surprised to learn that supermarkets in our minority communities stock up on matzot well ahead of Pesach. It seems Arabs have developed a taste for our unleavened bread.

It’s about this time of the year that I recycle doubts concerning the Exodus.

Usually I quote Professor Israel Finkelstein’s difficulty in accommodating the Exodus narrative with archaeological findings. Finkelstein and others are an accepted part of the academic landscape in Israel. Their views are shared by many and attacked by others.

A similar opinion is held not by Finklestein’s fellow archeologists but by Rabbi David Wolpe of Sinai Temple, Los Angeles, widely recognised as a leader of the Conservative movement.

Ten years ago Rabbi Wolpe became the focus of international controversy when he gave a Passover sermon that discussed the historic validity of the Exodus from Egypt. He told his congregation that "the way the Bible describes the Exodus is not the way it happened, if it happened at all." Casting doubt on the historicity of the Exodus during the holiday that commemorates it brought condemnation from members of the congregation and several rabbis (especially Orthodox Rabbis). The ensuing theological debate included whole issues of Jewish newspapers such as the Jewish Journal in Los Angeles and editorials in The Jerusalem Post, as well as an article in the Los Angeles Times. Critics asserted that Wolpe was attacking Jewish oral history , the significance of Passover and even the First Commandment.

Rabbi Wolpe asserted that he was arguing that the historicity of the events should not matter, since he believes faith is not determined by the same criteria as empirical truth. Wolpe argues that his views are based on the fact that no archeological digs have produced evidence of the Jews wandering the Sinai Desert for forty years, and that excavations in Israel consistently show settlement patterns at variance with the Biblical account of a sudden influx of Jews from Egypt.

David Wolpe says, “some people are surprised, even upset, by these views. Yet they are not new; such views have been a staple of scholarship, even appearing in popular magazines, for many years. Not piety but timidity keeps many rabbis from expressing what they have long understood to be true. As a scholar who took me to task in print told me privately over lunch, ‘Of course what you say is true, but we should not say it publicly.’ In other words, tell the truth, but not when too many people will be listening.

Chag Sameach

Beni 14th of April, 2011.

Thursday 7 April 2011

Gaza on my mind

I’ve got Gaza on my mind!

Last week three Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip when the car they were travelling in was strafed by an IAF jet fighter. A few days later two Palestinians were shot by an Israeli patrol near the Gaza security fence.

Given the bare and incomplete details of these two incidents a casual observer might be tempted to assume that Israel is engaged in a series of unprovoked attacks on Gaza's helpless citizens.

However, If I mention that the three men in the car were members of the Hamas military wing en route to kidnap Israeli tourists in Sinai, it's clear that their timely demise came not a moment too soon.

Likewise the two men shot by the security fence were also Hamas operatives. trying to set roadside bombs near the border.

In addition Israeli planes bombed smuggling tunnels in Gaza twice during the week.

It seems that IDF actions weren't restricted to Gaza alone. On Tuesday two people were killed near the airport in Port Sudan when the car they were travelling in was hit by rocket fire.

Sudan’s foreign minister claimed Israeli planes carried out the attack.

At this juncture it’s important to mention that whenever the "boys" go abroad to Dubai, Damascus, Port Sudan and other exotic places reports of their activities in the Israeli news media are invariably prefaced by the phrase “according to foreign sources.”

Maybe we have begun to take responsibility for our actions because TIME Magazine claimed a senior IDF official confirmed that Israeli forces carried out the air strike.

"It's not our first time there," the official was quoted as saying, apparently referring to the 2009 airstrike that demolished an arms convoy near the border with Egypt.

The Al-Arabiya news channel reported that one of the two men killed in the airstrike was an Arab national responsible for arming Hamas.

In the meantime Hamas leaders in Gaza said that one of the men alleged to have been killed in Port Sudan is alive and well. The Iranians also denied being involved in the Sudanese gun running for Hamas.

The bottom line is that Israel and Hamas plead guilty as charged.

A lot of well intentioned people as well as the cynics who never miss an opportunity to malign Israel condemn the IDF’s preemptive action policy.

They argue that the preemptive gunning down of militants/terrorists is unwarranted. Some of them claim that the incidents referred to and others like them don’t meet the requirements of the “Caroline Test.”

Caroline Who? In 1837, settlers in Canada rebelled against the British colonial government.

The United States remained officially neutral regarding the rebellion, but American sympathizers assisted the rebels with men and supplies, transported by a steamboat named The Caroline. In response, a British force from Canada entered United States territory at night, seized The Caroline, set the ship on fire, and sent it over the Niagara falls. At least one American was killed in the incident.

The British claimed that the attack was an act of self–defence.

In a letter to the British Ambassador, Secretary of State Daniel Webster argued that the British would have to show that: "the necessity to act in self–defence was instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment of deliberation."

Our defence establishment bases its preemptive actions less on Daniel Webster’s formula and more on a Talmudic inference deduced from Exodus 22:2 which states “ If a thief be found breaking in, and be smitten so that he die, there shall be no blood shed for him,” The Talmudic deduction says “ If a man comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first.”

Some Israelis have questioned the efficacy of some preemptive strikes claiming that they lead to Hamas reprisals and result in a vicious circle of violence.

Indeed following this week’s Israeli attacks Islamic militant groups in the Gaza Strip declared the de-facto two-year-old ceasefire with Israel null and void.

Admittedly since the Gaza moratorium the firing of rockets and mortars from Gaza have been more low key, but the declared ceasefire has never been fully adhered to.

In fact the preemptive actions taken this week followed the biggest upsurge of violence since Operation Cast Lead.

Cutting off Gaza’s weapons supply line is Hamas’ biggest nightmare.

Military affairs analyst Ron Ben-Yishai predicted another flare-up following this week’s preemptive actions. “In the coming days, we will likely see yet another escalation in the south. Hamas will seek to avenge the IDF operation early Saturday where three members of the group’s military wing were assassinated and a fourth was gravely wounded. We can assume that Hamas’ retribution will be joined by Islamic Jihad, the Popular Resistance Committees, and the Popular Front.”

Late this afternoon a 16-year boy was critically injured when the school bus he was riding in near the Saad junction in the Gaza periphery area was hit by an anti-tank missile fired from the Gaza Strip. He is currently being treated for severe trauma to the head, after sustaining shrapnel injuries.

As expected there was an immediate response by IDF units in the area, however the response is never an ill considered kneejerk reprisal. IDF southern command has a limited immediate response. The secondary response is the result of tactical decision making at a higher level.

Ben Yishai says “Both sides have an interest in restoring the calm that prevailed in the region following Cast Lead, but they lack the ability to control the height of the flames, and therefore may end up being dragged into a major confrontation against their will.”

Hamas’ political leadership has lost some of its control over other organisations, and also over its own military wing. Observers report that there is an atmosphere of partial anarchy in the Strip, a situation exploited by “rogue” factions to serve their own purpose.

Ron Ben Yishai and others emphasise that Iran’s leadership is eager to cause a major Gaza confrontation. Such a flare-up would help ease the pressure on Assad in Syria, divert public anger in Iran, and focus al-Jazeera’s attention on events in the Strip. This will also create an opportunity for Ahmadinejad to tighten his ties with Egypt and other Muslim countries. “ Tehran is encouraging Islamic Jihad, which follows Iran’s orders, to provoke Israel.

Lately Tehran appears to be boosting its mortar shell deliveries to Islamic Jihad in Gaza. This may stem from estimates that the deployment of the Iron Dome anti-rocket system may render rocket fire from the Strip ineffective. Yet Iron Dome cannot prevent massive mortar fire at Israeli communities adjacent to the border fence – such attacks have proven lethal in the past.

As result of all these reasons, Hamas and the other large groups operating in Gaza are increasingly bolder. Hence, they are now attempting to impose new ‘rules of play’ on the IDF and Israel’s political leadership – rules that would enable them to maintain a limited war of attrition against southern communities, while restoring relative calm whenever they see fit, in order to serve their own interests, “says Ben Yishai.

Well it happened! The first of its kind, a grad rocket fired at Ashkelon from Gaza was following a trajectory heading it to a populated area when it was destroyed by an interceptor fired by the Iron Dome system positioned close to the city. All the doubters and cynics can eat their hats now.

The cloak and dagger operation in the Ukraine involving the abduction of a Palestinian engineer Dirar Abu Sisi I mentioned last week has veered off in a different direction. Der Spiegel reported that Abu Sisi was kidnapped because he had information concerning the whereabouts of Gilad Shalit. However when he was indicted this week it seems that the innocuous electrical engineer who claimed he worked at the Gaza power plant was Hamas’ top rocket engineer. Abu Sisi studied with a leading Ukrainian rocket engineer and when he returned to Gaza he upgraded the Qassam rocket improving its range considerably.

Undoubtedly the story of the week was Judge Richard Goldstone’s recantation.

In an extraordinary article in the Washington Post, Richard Goldstone has now admitted that his infamous report was wrong. Having fuelled the blood libel that in Operation Cast Lead in Gaza Israel had targeted civilians and possibly had committed crimes against humanity, he now says that, as a result of the final report of the UN committee of independent experts and other evidence that has emerged since his report was published, he accepts that civilians were not intentionally targeted as a matter of policy and further states that if I had known then what I know now, the Goldstone Report would have been a different document.

Melanie Phillips commenting in the Spectator said “What self-serving rubbish. There was ample evidence at the time from numerous sources that Hamas was telling lies about the number of civilians who were killed by Israeli fire. There was ample evidence that Hamas was deliberately putting civilians in harm’s way. There was ample evidence that Hamas does not operate under the rule of law or uphold human rights. There was ample evidence that Israeli rules of engagement required the IDF to avoid hitting civilians wherever possible. There was ample evidence that Israel always investigates allegations of misconduct made against its soldiers and holds them to acount under the rule of law. Yet Goldstone, having accepted the poisoned chalice from the UN Human Rights Council to subject Israel to a show trial whose verdict preceded the evidence (despite his protestations that he modified this odious remit), chose to believe the propaganda put out by Hamas and its proxies among NGOs with a long track record of malevolent hostility to Israel.”

Columnist Mona Charen also commented on Goldstone’s “not knowing”

All of this was not just knowable when Goldstone signed on as front man for the U.N. lynch mob, it was known. The Goldstone Report was intended, and has since been employed, to stigmatize any Israeli self-defense as a war crime.”

Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic Magazine summed up the practical implications of Goldstone’s mea culpa “Well, I'm glad he's cleared that up. Unfortunately, it is somewhat difficult to retract a blood libel, once it has been broadcast across the world.”

A lead article in The Economist written in a cynical vein chose to highlight Israel’s response to Goldstone’s “change of heart.” There is no joy like schadenfreude, say Israelis. The paper advised us to heed Proverbs 24:17

“Rejoice not when thine enemy falleth, and let not thine heart be glad when he stumbleth.”:

I reserve a measure of schadenfreude for Goldstone because he deserves it. Nevertheless, his remorse, incomplete as it is, should be treated as the author of Proverbs suggests.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 7th of April, 2011.