THE JOINT AIR PATROLS

Originally, I planned to plunge into the murky waters of our submarine scandal this week.

I prepared a preamble about 19^th century submarines with reference to Jules Verne’s classic science fiction adventure novel “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas.” I thought of adding a brief summary of submarine warfare in the two world wars, but on second thoughts I decided to surface and review new developments in the Golan Heights region.

Earlier this week several Israeli news outlets reported heightening tension in the Golan. The Times of Israel claimed that, “Israeli military officials are holding talks with Russian army officers to calm tensions after Moscow’s Defence Ministry said on Monday that it held a joint jet patrol with Syria along the latter’s borders, including in the Golan Heights area.

According to the Ynet news site, Israeli officials are struggling to understand why Russia has apparently changed its policy toward Israel, after it announced that the joint air force patrols are expected to be a regular occurrence.

The report claimed, without citing a source, that Israel may limit its air campaign in Syria as a result of Russia’s move, even after discussions end.

The joint patrol, reported Monday by the Russian independent “Interfax news agency”, occurred on Saturday.

The Ynet report noted that the news came amid tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border as Western powers scramble to counter an implied threat by Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade the neighbouring country.

News of the joint patrols puzzled some Middle East affairs commentators. They remarked that Israel’s close relations with Russia and Putin are often seen as linked to the two countries’ close military coordination in Syria, in particular when the IDF carries out purported strikes on sites within Syria. However, I think Seth J. Frantzman described the situation best in an Op-ed he wrote for the Jerusalem Post.  Frantzman is the paper’s senior Middle East correspondent and Middle East affairs analyst.

“In 2021, Iranians attacked the US Tanf garrison in Syria, and US media outlets said the Iranians had acted in retaliation for Israeli strikes. In 2019, Iraqi militias also accused Israel of a series of airstrikes.

Last May, Iran flew a drone from Iraq into Israeli airspace. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic built up a base called Imam Ali near Albukamal in Syria and moved drones to the T-4 base, also in Syria. Tehran sought to bring the 3rd Khordad air-defence system to the T-4 base in April 2018.

This is the context of the campaign between the wars.

The other context is that in the summer of 2018, the Syrian regime retook areas in southern Syria from Syrian rebels and established itself on the Golan Heights border. Russian peacekeepers came as well, and Hezbollah forces encroached near the Golan Heights. This resulted in the terrorist group moving drones toward an area in the Golan in 2019.

Meanwhile, Russia was more focused on reconciling with Syrian rebels and recruiting them for the Syrian army. Moscow began to express more concerns about Israeli airstrikes, going as far as to claim in November 2019 that Israel had overflown Jordan to conduct airstrikes in Syria. It also said it would upgrade Syrian air defences after a 2018 incident near Latakia in which Syrian air defence shot down a Russian plane while trying to stop Israeli airstrikes.

Moscow also released more statements criticising Israeli airstrikes, but it has been quiet in recent months, even after airstrikes in Latakia in December.

So what is going on? Russia’s defence ministry has clearly indicated that the recent daytime patrol included an area near the Golan Heights. It said the patrol flights “will continue to operate on a regular basis,” Reuters reported.

“The mission route included the Golan Heights region, the southern border of Syria, the Euphrates River and northern Syria,” the statement said. “The Russian pilots took off from Khmeimim Air Base, while the Syrians took off from the Sayqal and Al-Dumayur bases near Damascus.”

The patrols were conducted with the Sukhoi Su-34 attack aircraft, Sukhoi Su-35S multi-mission fighter jets, A-50 command-and-control aircraft and the Syrian army’s MiG-23 and MiG-29 aircraft, Reuters reported.

 Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighter 

While Israel has not been involved in aerial combat in Syria, most of these aircraft are no match for the IAF’s F-35s and advanced munitions. Israel shot down a Syrian Sukhoi fighter jet near the Golan in 2018; Syria has not retaliated for that incident. Israel has often coordinated with Russia in a kind of deconfliction in Syria since 2015, when Russia began major operations there.

The news of the Russian patrols appears to be a message bragging that the Syrians and Russians will work closely to project power and impress upon the world that Syria has sovereignty over parts of the country, even though the US has bases there, and Turkey occupies part of northern Syria.

Moscow and Damascus want to send a message of strength to former Syrian rebels in southern Syria who work with Russia. The message may not be directed at Israel or not solely at Israel.

Most reports of Israeli airstrikes in Syria occur at night. There is no evidence that Russian and Syrian warplanes will be patrolling at night.

Four other factors are involved:

The US has supported Israel’s actions in Syria

Russia doesn’t always share interests with Iran

Israel has been reported by the Russians to overfly Jordan to conduct strikes

Israel can use standoff munitions with a long range, meaning the joint patrols may not yet pose a major problem.

Deconfliction also means potentially making sure the patrols occur with Israel’s knowledge. Israel’s advanced radar can also detect them.

The major question mark is whether these patrols will embolden Syria’s regime and Iranian-backed elements in Syria. Iran could use them as cover to attack Israel or use its proxies to strike at the US and Israel.” 

This could be one part of a multistage Russian operation to assert Syrian regime sovereignty. Eventually, that could lead to potential friction. Israel’s leadership will have to weigh these issues and analyse its next steps.

 Daniel Byman editor of Lawfare said, “The Syrian civil war destabilized the Middle East, weakened the Assad regime and damaged the credibility of the United States. Moscow was one of the few winners to emerge, establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with in the region.”

“Six years after Russia intervened in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad from an imminent demise, Moscow has largely prevailed. Far from getting stuck in an Afghanistan-like ‘quagmire’ that many observers had predicted, President Vladimir Putin has achieved his key objectives without incurring crippling costs.” Wrote

Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the book “Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence.” Ms. Borshchevskaya’s article was posted a few days before the joint air patrols. Nevertheless, it provides a good analysis of the forces involved and their objectives. “What were those objectives, what did Moscow gain, and what does it mean for future crises in the region?

The Syria intervention was about many things, but at its core it was about pushing back against the U.S.-led liberal international order…..”In Syria, like nowhere else, Moscow took a stand against years of perceived American unilateralism. Russia finally acted as the great power that it is

Key to the operation’s success was its limited aims, which were focused to avoid the Soviet Union’s Afghanistan-like scenario of overextension. Moscow’s military campaign provided primarily air support but also included a naval component and a small number of elite ground troops; this narrow scope made it financially affordable. Moscow relied on other actors, chiefly Iran and Iran-backed proxies, to do the heavy lifting. This approach entailed working with all the major players in the region, including those that were in conflict in the Syrian theatre—which positioned Russia as a mediator and bolstered Moscow’s leverage.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu, former Israeli Air Force Commander from 1996 to 2000, said the Iranian activity in Syria and the Israeli strikes that it provokes undermine Assad’s sovereignty. “Hence, I see this is as a demonstration of coordinated interests between Russia and Syria,” he said.  

Putin is interested in “completing the hegemony that he is building in Syria through a puppet named Assad. So long as the Syrian war raged, he needed Iran,” said Ben Eliyahu.

That meant Russia was willing to accept the corridor that Iran built to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian malign action against Israel as long as Iran was activating force to help defeat rebel forces that had threatened Assad.

“With the passage of time it becomes clear that Assad is consolidating his takeover, the Russian interest of allowing Iran to be in Syria is decreasing,” added Ben Eliyahu. “It is in Israel’s interest to allow Russia to push the Iranians out of Syria,” he argued.

Until that happens Israel will continue to attack Iranian proxy forces in Syria, arms shipments en route to Lebanon and Hezbollah forces in Syria regardless of the joint Russian and Syrian air forces patrols.

Let’s conclude with the weather, namely the Elpis snow storm that is battering Israel currently. So far, Elpis has brought snow mostly to the Golan Heights, and Jerusalem, but is expected to bring snow to other elevated areas

The Hellenic National Meteorological Service assigned the name Elpis to the storm that brought a heavy snow fall to Athens before moving to Turkey, then turning south through Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

I’m told that In Greek mythology, Elpis (Ancient Greek: ἐλπίς) is the spirit of hope (usually seen as an extension to suffering by the Greeks, not as a god). She was depicted as a young woman, usually carrying flowers or a cornucopia. 

For the time being Elpis is a temporary distraction. Once the storm has run its course, we will turn our attention again to the joint patrol flights.

 

Take care

 

Beni                                                                                        27^th of January, 2022.

 

THE PLEA BARGAIN

 

It seems every other news topic has been put on hold this week. News media speculation over a possible plea bargain that might keep former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of jail has been cast as “the only show in town.”

By most accounts the news media’s exaggerated attention to the case isn’t shared by the general public. A random poll conducted anywhere in the country would probably reveal that rank-and-file Israelis (myself included) find it difficult to differentiate between cases 1,000, 2,000, and 4,000. We all know that they involve charges of bribery, corruption and breach of trust, but we have long lost interest in the finer definitions. We are more concerned about staying out of harm’s way, mainly Omicron and other variants.

The news media’s obsession with the plea bargain topic is liable to give outsiders a false impression of what really concerns us most.   A casual observer would be forgiven for assuming that Israel has “let its guard down.” An assumption based on our newsoutlets’ coverage of current events.

However, the police, IDF and various security services are all well focused on what they are required to do. They keep a close watch on threats at home and around us.

One possible exception is our police force which has been accused of using NSO’s Pegasus spyware to pry on citizens in all walks of life. I’m quoting the Israeli daily business newspaper and website Calcalist “Mayors, leaders of political protests against former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former governmental employees, were among those tracked by police without a search or bugging warrant authorising the surveillance.

Israel police uses NSO’s Pegasus spyware to remotely hack phones of Israeli citizens, control them and extract information from them. The Israeli company’s spyware, which has earned a notorious reputation in recent years after being used by oppressive regimes to spy on dissidents, was used, for example, by the police’s SIGINT unit in order to search for evidence of bribery in the cellphone of a serving mayor, during the stage in which the investigation was still confidential. The remote hacking delivered in this instance evidence of criminal offenses. This evidence was later whitewashed as intelligence and was followed by an open investigation. At this stage, the evidence already known to the police was legally seized with a search warrant provided by a judge.”

A spokesman for the Police Force denied the accusations saying: “The Israel Police Force acts according to the authority granted by law and when necessary, according to court orders and within the rules and regulations set by the responsible bodies. The police’s activity in this sector is under constant supervision and inspection by the Attorney General and additional external legal entities. Naturally, the police force doesn’t intend to comment on the tools it uses. Nevertheless, we will continue to act in a determined manner with all the means at our disposal, in the physical and online spaces, to fight crime in general, and organised crime in particular, to protect the safety and property of the public.”

Some people are worried by this apparent overreach of authority. I am not really concerned, so long as long as our gendarmerie gets the job done without abusive use of the tools it uses.

Incidentally, the initials NSO stand for Niv, Shalev and Omri, the names of the company's founders They are ex-members of Unit 8200, the Israeli Intelligence Corps unit responsible for collecting signals intelligence

The Pegasus spyware is classified as a weapon by Israel and any export of the technology must be approved by the government.

A recent statement issued by the company explained that, “NSO Group, develops best-in-class technology to help government agencies detect and prevent a wide-range of local and global threats.

“Our products help government intelligence and law-enforcement agencies use technology to meet the challenges of encryption to prevent and investigate terror and crime.

NSO technology is designed by telecommunications and intelligence experts who, positioned at the forefront of their fields, are dedicated to keeping pace with the ever-changing cyber world.”

In an interview with the Guardian on Wednesday, Omer Barlev, the cabinet minister with responsibility for policing, denied claims made this week by the Hebrew-language financial daily Calcalist that the phones of people who led protests against former premier Benjamin Netanyahu had been hacked into or surveilled by the police.

Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler, an expert at the Israel Democracy Institute thinktank, said: “You can’t really ask for a court order authorising Pegasus” because Israeli law does not currently permit such invasive surveillance of its citizens.

“It is now clear that the current Protection of Privacy Law is not equipped to cope with today’s reality,” she told Agence France-Presse.

That being said, now we can get back to the plea bargain topic if only for the sake of clarifying it more.

 

In a piece she wrote last week Carrie Keller-Lynn Political and Legal Correspondent for the Times of Israel tended to play down the gravity of some of the charges in the various Netanyahu cases

“Pundits and scholars alike are debating whether the trial is an overreach of the court system, especially as two of the three cases turn on the question of whether favourable media coverage – essential to a politician’s role and relevance – is something of value to be traded.

Legal opinions are divided as to whether media attention is a benefit cognizable under the existing penal law, or if the attorney general is innovating new law.

Netanyahu is on trial in three cases, dubbed Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000 by police investigators. Case 1000 concerns lucrative gifts that Netanyahu received from wealthy supporters, while Cases 2000 and 4000 both revolve around quid pro quo deals in which Netanyahu allegedly was seeking to secure more favourable media coverage from the country’s leading newspaper Yediot Ahronot (Case 2000) and allegedly gained effective editorial control over Israel’s second-biggest news site, Walla (Case 4000).

While all three cases carry the charge of “fraud and breach of trust,” Case 4000 is considered the most serious, as it also brings an additional charge of bribery. In the Case 4000 quid pro quo, Netanyahu is alleged to have arranged immensely lucrative benefits for fellow defendant Shaul Elovitch, the then controlling shareholder of the Bezeq telecommunications company

Word of the possible plea deal comes just weeks before Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit is set to end his term on January 31.

Mandelblit was responsible for issuing the indictments against Netanyahu, following lengthy police investigations, and is largely seen as wanting to end his time in office with a successful conviction.

The next attorney general will be appointed by the coalition government, led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and may be much less likely to offer such a plea deal to Netanyahu.

But critics -- including hundreds of protesters who gathered outside of Mandelblit's home on Saturday night -- are pushing back against the deal. For them, anything less than a full trial and sentence carrying with it the stigma of moral turpitude would be regarded as a failure, given the seriousness of pursuing cases against a serving prime minister.

While at first glance it may seem like Netanyahu's political opponents would be happy to see him take a plea deal in disgrace and leave the political arena, some Israeli analysts say such a move could shake the stability of the current government.

The glue that has bound those parties reflects a shared wish to end Netanyahu's time as Israel's longest serving prime minister. And for as long as he has remained in front line politics -- as the leader of the opposition -- it has held together well.

But if he were to exit the stage, it could provide an opening for a new coalition, made-up entirely of right-wing and religious parties, that could topple the current unity government.

However, political commentator Anshel Pfeffer Ha’aretz thinks otherwise- “Even if Netanyahu signs a plea bargain and resigns, it won’t cause a political earthquake. Likud will still be the Bibi Party and there will be little incentive for coalition members to defect.”

Most of the news media accounts of the charges made against Benjamin Netanyahu omitted or glossed over Case 3000

The submarine affair, (Case 3000) concerns allegations of a massive bribery scheme in Israel’s multi-million-dollar purchase of naval vessels — submarines and large missile ships — from German shipbuilder Thyssenkrupp. The scandal also involved the sale of two Dolphin-class submarines and two anti-submarine warships by Germany to Egypt, allegedly approved by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu without consulting or notifying then-defence minister Moshe Ya’alon and then-IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz. Israel had long been granted an unofficial veto over such sales by Germany.

While several of Netanyahu’s close associates have been indicted in the case, which involves suspicions that Israeli officials were bribed to ensure Thyssenkrupp won the contract, the former premier has not been directly implicated, and the attorney general has said he is not a suspect. However, Ya’alon and Gantz think otherwise.

I want to conclude on a positive note. An item published by i24 News provided details of the recommendations made by a committee appointed to investigate medications to be included in the “health basket” for the current year. The recommendations submitted to Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz, included medications and technologies worth $175.5 million. 

Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said the committee members "did an amazing job," adding that the subsidized treatments include “super-advanced drugs and technologies in the fields of mental health, rehabilitation, funding innovative cancer treatments, treatments for transgender individuals, lowering the price of PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis), adding another drug for HIV patients and assistance to a very wide range of people.” We have made every effort to ensure the citizens of the country receive the technologies that should be included in the basket as soon as possible,” said the coordinator of the committee, Dr. Osnat Luxenburg.

  
I'm adding a last minute postscript  : 

Contacts regarding  a plea deal between Benjamin Netanyahu and the state prosecution appeared to be in dire straits Wednesday evening, with sources close to both sides telling media outlets that it appeared increasingly unlikely that an agreement could be reached in the near future.
Netanyahu met with advisors at the office of one of his  attorneys. They are reported  to have discussed at length the  state of the negotiations. However, the reports indicated that the gaps between the sides appeared to be too wide to  bridge in the short time left in Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit’s tenure — seen as a key window for securing a deal.
According to  TV Channel 12, Mandelblit’s associates are now almost certain that a deal will not be struck. 

       
Take care.
Beni,                           20^th of January, 2022.

 

 OPTIMISTS

An interviewer on one of our TV channels said Gil Hoffman is “the most optimistic man in Israel. "That’s probably the reason I read his column in the Jerusalem Post last week. Hoffman is the paper’s chief political correspondent and analyst.

“Do Israelis want their country to become a dictatorship? “Hoffman asked, “Well, a comprehensive annual study by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) found that the answer may be yes.”  He answered rhetorically. Other newsoutlets were more assertive describing the perceived trend as a definite “yes.”

According to the IDI survey 57% of Israelis want “a strong leader who will not consider the Knesset, the press or public opinion” when he or she makes decisions.

President Isaac Herzog said he is deeply troubled by the lack of confidence in state institutions. 

“There is no substitute for Israel’s democracy, and there is no substitute for its state institutions, and therefore the loss of confidence keeps me awake at night,”

Three-quarters of Arab Israelis and 44% of Jewish citizens believe that democratic rule in Israel is in jeopardy. Among Jews, a majority on the Left believe that democracy in Israel is in serious danger (63%), compared with a minority in the Centre and on the Right – 43% and 39%, respectively – who believe so.

In the same survey 42% of Jews believe they should have more rights than non-Jewish citizens, a sharp increase from recent years. The figure was only 27% in 2018. Among those who self-identify as right-wing, 57% said Jews should have more rights, compared with 28.5% among centrists and only 5% of self-proclaimed leftists.

More than half the public, 52%, believe the political affiliation of elected officials influences their treatment at the hands of the legal system, including 63% of people on the Right, 39% of centrists and 29% of left-wingers. There was a similar response when the participants in the survey were asked whether judges treat ordinary citizens who appear before them equally.

Most of those on the Right (57%) think the Supreme Court has too much power. Some 76% of Haredim and 70% of National-Religious Jews agreed, while the numbers were much lower among secular Israelis, centrists and left-wingers.

Trust in Israel’s Supreme Court has shown a steady downturn over the last few years. This year, 41% said they had confidence in the Supreme Court. Similarly, there has been a continuous decline in public trust in most other institutions – the Israel Police 33.5%, and the media 25% (down from 32% in October 2020). At the bottom of the list are the political parties with 10% and the Knesset with 21%. Trust in the government rose slightly to 27% from 25% in October 2020.

IDI President Yohanan Plesner said the picture emerging from the study regarding the public’s opinion of Israel’s legal system is cause for concern.

“The fact that we are seeing a decline in trust in the institutions of Israeli democracy is worrying,” Plesner said. “Our political leaders would be well advised to take note of this reality.”

The Israel Democracy Institute study was conducted with a random sample of 1,004 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 184 in Arabic, constituting a representative national sample of the entire adult population of Israel age 18 and older. The maximum sampling error for the entire sample was 2.9%± at a confidence level of 95%.  

The IDI is a reputable internationally respected organisation, nevertheless, random sampling can result in a less than accurate representative selection.  

Reporting on the same topic Ynet News stressed different aspects of the survey:

“For Arab Israelis, a significant increase was seen in their faith in the government and the Knesset, as the coalition for the first time now includes an Arab party — Ra'am.

The report — delivered in-person to President Isaac Herzog by the Israel Democracy Institute President Yohanan Plesner and Prof. Tamar Hermann, director of IDI's Viterbi Family Centre for Public Opinion and Policy Research — was divided into four main topics: democratic values, the legal system, trust and general satisfaction.

The annual report, in its 19th edition, revealed "a complex picture regarding the level of public trust in key institutions and officials, confidence in the country’s civil service and the overall strength of Israeli democracy," the IDI said in its summary of the survey.

In keeping with previous surveys, the IDF has the highest level of public trust, despite slipping from 90% in 2019 to 78% in 2021.

The president of Israel was next highest in the trust rankings with 58%, similar to the 56% recorded in 2020.

Though it is in third place, only a minority trust the Supreme Court, whose positive rating dropped from 42% in 2020 to 41% for 2021.

The Israel Police was in fourth place with 33.5%, the media was at 25%, and at the bottom of the list came the Knesset with 21% and political parties with 10%.

Defying the overall downward trend, the government rose to 27% compared to 25% in 2020.

While Israeli-Arabs tend to trust state institutions and officials less than their Jewish counterparts, trust levels in Israel's Arab community have risen since last year.

Roughly 36% of Israeli-Arabs polled trust the IDF and 25% trust the Knesset, up from 17.5% in 2020.

The government gained a higher rating among the community as well, with 28% compared to 14% last year.

Let’s cast aside the statistics, they can be misleading. Instead, I want to quote from an article by Thomas L. Friedman in the New York Times referred to me by an old friend.

Friedman quoted Hebrew University of Jerusalem religious philosopher Moshe Halbertal: “What happened here is that there is still enough civic responsibility — not everywhere, but enough — that the political class felt that the continued breakdown of the rule of law and more elections, which was leading nowhere, was an indulgence that Israel simply could not afford, given its highly diverse population and dangerous neighborhood.”

This new Israeli government will neither annex the West Bank nor make final peace with the Palestinians, but it is one that will attempt to renew the relationship with the Palestinian Authority rather than weakening it. It is one that prevented a racist anti-Arab party allied to Netanyahu from entering the cabinet. And it is one that is counterbalancing Bibi’s strong embrace of the less-than-democratic, ultranationalist states in Europe and evangelical Christians and Trump Republicans in America by rebuilding ties with the Democrats, liberal American Jews and liberal parties in Europe.”

As Israeli leaders treat each other — and Israeli and Palestinians leaders treat each other — with a little more respect, and a little less contempt, because they are out of Facebook and into face-to-face relations again, stuff is getting done. Unity has not meant paralysis. This coalition in November passed Israel’s first national budget since 2018! So far, every attempt to topple it has failed.Mansour Abbas, the Islamist party’s leader, even recently stunned many Israeli Arabs and Jews when he publicly declared, “Israel was born a Jewish state, that was the decision of the people.” He continued: “It was born this way and it will remain this way. The question is, what is the status of the Arab citizen in the Jewish State of Israel?’’

In particular the status of Negev Bedouins needs to be regulated. It’s an old problem dating back to the Ottoman land reforms of 1858. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire it was inherited by the British Mandatory Government and in turn by the State of Israel.

Bedouin notables, members of the Abu Basma Regional Council near Dimona

Our coalition faced a crisis yesterday after Bedouins staged violent protests against tree planting on disputed land in the Negev.

The conflict over planting trees in the Negev home to Bedouin villages not recognised by the state - has divided the government.

However, Welfare Minister Meir Cohen later brokered a temporary agreement to halt the planting while representatives from the Jewish National Fund (JNF) and the Bedouins agreed to negotiate an amicable settlement.  

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid called for halting the planting and reassessing the situation with the object of regulating Bedouin land claims in the Negev.

Optimists are hopeful that the problem will be settled once and for all.

 

Take care

 

 

Beni                                                                13^th of January, 2022