BIBI'S BUDGET

Long before the social media were in vogue, TV channel archivists were busy documenting speeches, statements and off-the-cuff remarks made by Benjamin Netanyahu. Now they are causing him no little embarrassment by airing them again.

As Israel was suffering from its worst economic recession twenty-one years ago, then-finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the crisis on the public sector for exploiting the private sector.

In an interview last December, just before forming a government with ultra-Orthodox and nationalist parties as his partners, Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled that the Haredi community’s high birth-rate, low employment rate and reliance on state welfare had created a burden that contributed to that 2002 economic crisis.

Netanyahu explained that Israel’s economy then was in trouble for various reasons, including its “lavish welfare system, which encouraged people to live on the dole and not to go out and work.”

Netanyahu’s remedy, he remembered, was to reduce government expenditure. A measure that included cutting the child allowances that grew incrementally with each successive child and implementing wide-ranging structural and regulatory reforms to encourage economic growth and prosperity.

Now it seems the opposite is happening. As part of its expenditure programme for the next two years, the government has okayed the allocation of billions of shekels in funds to causes which the Finance Ministry and leading economists have warned will lower incentives to join the workforce. Furthermore, Haredi men will be ill-qualified to earn a living.  The approved expenditure programme will stifle growth, causing some economists to term it an existential threat!

After slogging through a seemingly unending filibustering by the opposition parties in hopes of delaying proceedings, Knesset members finally voted to approve the final parts of the two-year budget just after 6 a.m. Wednesday, capping a boisterous all-nighter in the plenum.

The final vote approving the budget buys Netanyahu and his government another 18 months until the Knesset must approve another budget, clearing the coalition’s largest internal point of contention.

   "Happy days are here again."

“This is a good budget, it will serve the citizens of Israel,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said from the Knesset podium after the vote, to cheers and applause from the coalition lawmakers who stood together in a show of unity to celebrate the milestone event.

As the Knesset began voting on the budget, thousands of protesters gathered in Jerusalem, waving Israeli flags and chanting against the government’s “looting” of state funds.

“The budget does not serve and does not provide a response to the needs of Israeli citizens such as investment in reforms for tackling the high cost of living in the country, which is not adequately addressed,” Daphna Aviram Nitzan, Director of the Centre for Governance and Economy at the Israel Democracy Institute said “Instead, it allocates funds that are not growth drivers for the economy at the expense of a diminishing working population which will have to carry the high tax burden to finance this budget.”

The Israeli public is mostly concerned about the high cost of living, according to a survey released by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) on Tuesday. It showed that two-thirds of respondents think that food prices are the most significant factor, and around half blame housing costs, and 29% indirect taxation.

The majority of the public believes that the high cost of living is the fault of the government’s lack of action and only 27% blame the large monopolies, and 3-4% attribute responsibility to local manufacturers, importers, or supermarket chains, the survey found.

“The changing priorities of the government are very much reflected in the allocation of the coalition funds,” Itai Ater, an economics professor at Tel Aviv University told The Times of Israel. “Previously, funds for Haredi institutions were made available on certain conditions of teaching core subjects and an understanding that the ultra-Orthodox community needs to be incentivised to join the labour force.”….

“Two things have changed in that regard, we give them more money, and we don’t give them the necessary core education,” said Ater.  “The economy cannot survive without more Haredi men joining the labour force.”

“Many Haredi women are already joining the workforce, but with regard to Haredi men, we are very far from being in a good place,” he added.

Today, almost 25% of children under school age are born to ultra-Orthodox families, and this proportion is expected to double by 2050. Overall, the ultra-Orthodox community makes up 13% of Israel’s population, it will constitute 16% of its population by the end of the decade, and will account for about a third of it by 2065.

The average monthly salaries of Haredi households - $ 3,786, are far lower than their non-Haredi counterparts, who earn $ 5,857.

The Finance Ministry has already warned that the allocation of funds to ultra-Orthodox institutions and initiatives creates negative incentives for Haredi men to seek employment and will harm the labour market and the economy as a whole.

I want to conclude on a festive note, namely, the celebration of Shavuot.

Ostensibly Shavuot, the Feast of Weeks, the Feast of the First Fruits is ideally suited to the saga of the Jewish agrarian renaissance, the return to our ancestral land.  Shavuot is not explicitly named in the Bible as the day on which the Torah was revealed by God to the Israelite nation at Mount Sinai, although this is commonly considered by Orthodox Jews to be its main significance.

 

Chag Shavuot Sameach

 

Beni,

               26th of May, 2023

 SUMMING UP

The numerous analyses of the recently concluded Israel – Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) military action have been conducted mostly by various Israeli think-tanks, both affiliated and others ostensibly not aligned.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a pro-Israel American think tank based in Washington, D.C., focused on the foreign policy of the United States in the Near East.

I am quoting here, selected texts from an analysis written by David Makovsky. He is the Institute’s director of a programme that analyses Arab-Israel Relations. 

 “On May 13, Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) reached a ceasefire deal—brokered by Egypt with involvement from the United States and Qatar—following a brief Israeli operation targeting Gaza known as ‘Shield and Arrow.’ The Israeli campaign hearkened back to August 2022, when the government led by Yair Lapid also fought PIJ over a short period. Then as now, Israel hoped the larger, better-armed, and politically stronger Hamas would stay out of the fray.”

Viewing the operational aspects of this latest exchange of fire, Makovsky said,” As an Iranian proxy, PIJ lacks Hamas’s broad public support in Gaza, and its rockets lack the lethality or range of those held by Hamas. Despite its military limitations, between May 9 and May 13, PIJ successfully fired 1,469 rockets at Israeli civilian areas, although roughly one-fifth landed in Gaza. PIJ also managed to fire a few rockets that reached the southern Tel Aviv suburbs and a West Bank settlement near Jerusalem.

Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system intercepted 95.6 percent of the rockets on course to hit Israeli civilian targets. One Israeli was killed in a Rehovot apartment building and a Gazan labourer was killed while working in Israel. Reports suggest Israel twice delayed the start of the operation amid concerns that innocent bystanders could be killed.

In all, the operation killed thirty-three Palestinians in Gaza, including ten uninvolved civilians in the opening airstrikes, according to the IDF. Most casualties were militants, but some occurred as a result of PIJ misfires.

The IDF registered tactical successes by killing three PIJ operational leaders in the initial May 9 strikes, as well as three other high-level militants thereafter. In a positive step for Israel’s layered missile defence, the IDF field-tested the medium-range David’s Sling system for the first time, shooting down a rocket headed for Tel Aviv. 

As for the broader context, Israel was responding to PIJ rocket attacks on Israeli cities launched after PIJ activist Khader Adnan died on May 2 while on a hunger strike in Israeli custody. Israeli defence officials were also concerned about PIJ’s burgeoning rocket production capability in the West Bank city of Jenin.

As in August 2022, Hamas resisted reported urging by Iran to enter the fighting, and in this round it reportedly even refused to shelter PIJ operatives by pairing them with Hamas fighters as shields. Rather, Hamas continued its policy of keeping Gaza quiet in order to consolidate its control and make economic gains (i.e., maintaining access for a minority of Palestinians to higher-paying jobs in Israel), while focusing on its West Bank operations against Israel.

Hamas would have struggled to stay on the sidelines had the fighting lasted longer, especially given the symbolic resonance of Jerusalem Day, May 19, which marks Israel’s victory in the 1967 war. An annual Israeli flag parade set to pass through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City has invariably posed a security challenge, but Israel has resisted the Biden administration’s requests to alter the route. This year, despite the plans and provocations threatened by Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, who leads the extremist Otzma Yehudit party, there were relatively few incidents.

On May 14, polls conducted by three Israeli television networks showed that nearly 60 percent of Israelis were satisfied with the security actions against PIJ. At the same time, they did not see the campaign as a turning point. A Channel 13 poll revealed that 53 percent of respondents believed it was a matter of 'months' before another Gaza confrontation would occur, whereas only 17 percent thought more than a year would pass. Military analysts interviewed on TV panels and even relatively upbeat analyses  in other news media, generally failed to offer reassurance of a long-term solution to the Gaza tensions.

Given general public support for short, focused military operations, the mild popularity surge experienced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unsurprising. Yet the Israeli leader needed any help he could get following the uproar over his government’s proposed controversial judicial overhaul. Support for the coalition was basically in free fall by late March amid public anger over the sudden dismissal of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who called for a pause in the reform plans. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets in protest, and the Histadrut general trade union called for widespread strikes. In response, Netanyahu was forced to backtrack, publicly voicing support for compromise talks facilitated by President Isaac Herzog.

Netanyahu’s aides have conveyed to reporters in background statements that the prime minister does not want to advance any controversial unilateral legislation during the spring-summer Knesset session, given that it could derail passage of the two-year budget before the month’s end. (By law, Israel’s government dissolves if it does not pass a budget by May 29.) Undoubtedly, though, the far-right elements of Netanyahu’s bloc will see the budget deadline as an opportunity for brinkmanship on various issues. Friction could centre, first, on large proposed shifts in funding for the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, including increased assistance for educational institutions that exclude core subjects such as math and English. The anti-overhaul movement will see this as part and parcel of its opposition to the sweeping changes the government is trying to implement, and the sharp increase in subsidies is sure to rekindle resentment.

The judicial overhaul proponents like Knesset Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee chair Simcha Rothman will threaten to advance the legislation during the budget debate if the Herzog talks bog down.

The May 14 surveys conducted by  Israeli TV  channels 12, and  13 would appear to offer a political path for Netanyahu. By late April, polls showed that the prime minister’s Likud Party would plummet to twenty seats if elections were held right then, down from its existing thirty-two-seat position. But by mid-May, Netanyahu’s party appeared to have gained back seven or eight of the lost seats. An election today could still see a bloc led by de facto National Unity head Benny Gantz triumph by anywhere from three to seven seats. Gantz’s strength has impressed analysts, who had presumed—after five elections in three-plus years—that the political fight would come down to a narrow slice of soft-right voters. But at Netanyahu’s April low point, Gantz appeared to have a much higher ceiling. Moreover, despite falling short in previous national elections, Gantz has gained public respect as a unifying figure intent on avoiding a culture war over the judicial overhaul.

Netanyahu understands that the judicial issue is a political lightning rod that he cannot touch now, and that his association with extremist political figures like Ben-Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Justice Minister Yariv Levin—who lately are perceived as being able to overpower him—is weakening him in the eyes of the broader public. A military conflict, by comparison, links the prime minister to more pragmatic, straightforward military chiefs and would appear to boost his political prospects.”

Summing up, David Makovsky said, “Netanyahu must now walk a political tightrope. On the one hand, he will try to avoid angering the coalition’s ideological base, an act that will involve hinting that the overhaul has merely been postponed—not scuttled—or that Herzog can facilitate a compromise palatable to the right. Yet anti-overhaul protesters do not trust Netanyahu and believe that the issue is only temporarily on the backburner and can return at any time. Thus, protests will continue. On the other hand, the prime minister will seek to signal to the Biden administration his desire to jointly counter Iran while building stronger ties with Saudi Arabia, both of which require prior consultation between the leaders in the Oval Office. Investors, meanwhile, are awaiting a clear signal from the prime minister either that judicial overhaul is dead or that a reasonable compromise has been reached, but Netanyahu may seek to maintain ambiguity in the hope that the issue will either fade or lose its political potency.  

 
      

As usual I like to conclude on a pleasant, hopeful note. What could be better than a flower parade.

“The Tag Meir coexistence organization conducted its ninth annual Flower March through the Old City of Jerusalem Thursday morning as a counterpoint to the nationalist Flag March later in the day.

The left-wing organisation said several hundred participants had taken part in the march, distributing flowers to residents of the Muslim, Christian and Armenian Quarters in order to spread a message of “love, inclusion [and] solidarity” ahead of what the organisers described as the “racism and incitement” of the Flag March.

A Tag Meir coexistence activist gives a Muslim woman a flower during the organization's ninth annual Flower March through the Old City of Jerusalem designed to spread a message of "love, inclusion and solidarity" ahead of the nationalist Jerusalem Day Flag March, May 18, 2023

 “We need to remember that this day is not a happy day for the Palestinians and Muslims in Jerusalem. They are 40 percent of Jerusalem’s population. That is why we think the Flag March should go through a different route, and not force them to close their stores,” Tag Meir director Gadi Gvaryahu told The Times of Israel.

Perhaps the concept of the flower parade is a tad naïve, but nice.

 

Take care,

 

Beni,                          19^th of May, 2023.

 

 

OPERATION SHIELD AND ARROW

             

  An Iron Dome launcher fires an interceptor missile as rockets are fired from Gaza, in Sderot, Israel, May 10, 2023

Since many foreign news outlets are reporting live-time on the exchange of fire between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group (PIJ), I can assume you are well informed.

Reporting for the BBC David Gritten in London and Rushdi Abu Alouf from Gaza City said, “The Israeli military has killed two Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders in air strikes in Gaza during a third day of fighting with militants there.

A pre-dawn attack on an apartment in Khan Younis killed the head of PIJ's rocket launching force and two others, who the military said were militants.

In the afternoon, his deputy was killed in a strike in a nearby town.”

A margin note: The BBC is careful to equate the IDF with PIJ by alluding to them as military and militants respectively.

Back to the main text:

Avishai Kaplan, representing the IDF's International Law Department, told the UN Human Rights Council.

" After months of attacks against Israeli citizens, Israel began Operation 'Shield and Arrow', against Islamic Jihad military targets.  The IDF offensive is conducted in accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict. Israel directs these attacks only against military targets and takes all possible precautions to mitigate harm to civilians."

Yesterday, an Israeli was killed when a rocket fired from Gaza hit a building in Rehovot.

It was the first fatality in Israel since it began the offensive against PIJ on Tuesday morning with a series of air strikes that killed another three of the group's commanders.

Twenty-eight people have been killed and 93 injured in Gaza over the same period, health officials there say. At least 10 civilians are also among the dead, which the United Nations has called unacceptable.

Margin note: Operation “Shield and Arrow” is an ongoing response to PIJ rocket fire. All figures quoted need to be constantly updated

An IDF spokesperson said four people, including three children, were killed in Gaza by rockets falling short on Wednesday, though this has not been corroborated by Palestinian sources. PIJ denied the allegation and accused Israel of trying to evade responsibility for their deaths.

Faulty rocket launches causing death and injuries to Palestinians inside the Gaza enclave have occurred a number of times in the past.

The IDF says that as of 8:00 p.m. Thursday, PIJ rocket crews have launched 803 rockets and mortars at Israel. at least 620 of the projectiles crossed the border, while 152 fell short in Gaza. The IDF, air defence systems intercepted 179 of the rockets, while several have landed in urban areas — killing one Israeli, injuring several others and causing extensive damage.

The Iron Dome is unquestionably the most effective air defence system in the world, nevertheless, it can’t provide 100% protection. Air-raid shelters provide good protection against the few missiles that land in urban areas.

A report in The Guardian provided an interim summary of the current exchange of fire between the IDF and the PIJ

The unexpected Israeli attack came despite a fragile ceasefire in place since a day of cross-frontier exchanges of fire last week triggered by the death on hunger strike of Khader Adnan, a prominent political figure affiliated with Islamic Jihad held in Israeli custody.

On Tuesday, large public funeral processions in Gaza got under way, while the Israeli defence ministry prepared to evacuate around 6,500 Israelis living near the frontier in case of further fighting.

Israel reportedly relayed messages to Hamas via Egyptian mediators that it was targeting the smaller Islamic Jihad rather than the dominant militant group. Wary of escalation, Hamas has stayed on the sidelines during recent escalations, while allowing Islamic Jihad to operate. But given Tuesday’s unusual targeted operation, and the high death toll, Hamas is now under significant pressure to respond.

Another margin note: Our family guests- Daphna, Mark, Michal and Tanya accompanied by our daughter Irit who lives in Jaffa, are spending a few days in Tel Aviv.

While seeing the sites, a colour-red siren was sounded causing them to take cover in a nearby air-raid shelter. No damage or injuries incurred, but plenty to write home about.

 i24 News quoted from a statement issued by IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagay: “The Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders killed at the onset of the ongoing Israeli military operation in Gaza were planning attacks “in the coming days, and not only in Gaza.”

“We were preparing for this operation since last Tuesday," Hagay continued. "We were waiting for the optimal conditions as far as intelligence and minimal collateral damage. Unfortunately, there were women and children killed. We have been careful to avoid killing and injuring innocent bystanders, but these terrorists work from civilian areas, thereby using family and neighbours as human shields.”

That being said, the UN Secretary-General said on Wednesday he was following the latest exchanges of fire between Israeli forces and militants in the Gaza Strip with “deep concern” over the escalating conflict, and “risk of further loss of life.”

In a statement released by his Spokesperson, António Guterres said that he condemned the civilian loss of life, that occurred during Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday aimed at the militant Islamic Jihad group, three of whose leaders were killed. The statement included a brief condemnation of PIJ rocket attacks on Israeli population centres.

 The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is an independent Israeli research institute and think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University dealing in areas of national security matters such as military and strategic affairs, terrorism and low intensity conflict, military balance in the Middle East, and cyber warfare. Here is an extract from one of its recent reports:

“This is the third operation aimed at Islamic Jihad, and the big question is whether this time as well Hamas will not join in. Hamas’s external leadership has threatened it will enter the fray, but this remains to be seen. The circumstances resemble those of exactly two years ago – then as well there were tensions leading up to Jerusalem Day, and it was decided not to act pre-emptively. This time, the violent energy that was supposed to build up until Jerusalem Day has been released proactively, and that is a very positive development.

If Hamas remains out of the picture, we can expect an operation similar in form and duration to previous operations. Hamas’s inclusion could prompt fire from the northern front as well and a significant lengthening of the operation.

Cities with mixed Arab and Jewish populations and the West Bank constitute another arena that demands attention, and despite the low chance that it will join the hostilities, it is more sensitive. Here too, Hamas wields much influence, and a lot depends on its decision on whether or not to join.”

 Under the heading” Israeli Recklessness in Gaza” Haaretz dedicated an editorial article to the ongoing Gaza conflagration:

“In the first strike of the offensive on Gaza dubbed Operation Shield and Arrow, which began overnight between Monday and Tuesday, 13 people were killed, among them 10 civilians, three of them children. But without the batting of an eyelid, it was claimed that this was “collateral damage” due to the need to eliminate the three senior Islamic Jihad figures. In reality, the opposite is true. The three commanders were supposed to be seen as the “collateral result” of the targeted killing of civilians in Gaza.”

My comment: “Who needs enemies when you can read editorials like the one above.”

How many times has the UN condemned Israel?

As of 2013, the State of Israel has been condemned in 45 resolutions by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Since the UNHRC's creation in 2006, it has resolved almost as many resolutions condemning Israel alone than on issues for the rest of the world combined. If you delve further back you will find additional condemnations of Israel by various UN bodies.

This week a UN Security Council condemnation of Israel was blocked by US and UK representatives.

Back in the Gaza enclave PIJ is running out of commanders. Their replacements barely have time to fill their new posts before they too meet their Maker.

 

Take care.

 

Beni,                                      12^th of May, 2023

 

 

 

 

 “They also serve who only stand and wait.”

    Sonnet 19,     John Milton

 

Earlier this week Ultra-Orthodox coalition politicians criticised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for failing to pass a law granting exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox men. One enraged minister said Netanyahu should resign if he can’t keep his promises. He was referring to a legislation commitment included in the coalition agreement. The legislators, members of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) Party, threatened to withhold support for the state budget, if there were further delays in passing the required legislation. The coalition agreement between UTJ and Likud includes a clear pledge to approve such legislation before the budget is passed.

The UTJ coalition party members should have known better than to rely on Netanyahu’s promises.

The right-wing, religious coalition is seeking to pass legislation that would lower the age for exemption from military service for yeshiva students from 26 to 21 years.

The current age of exemption has prevented them from entering the workforce until after the age of 26, even if they ceased studying at Torah institutes.   

However, political analysts speculate that the sides will have to reach a compromise in order to avoid a government crisis. Now it appears that the crisis has been forestalled.

An unsourced report in numerous Hebrew media outlets said United Torah Judaism and Shas have both acquiesced to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to postpone passing a bill on the highly contentious issue by a few months, likely until the autumn Knesset session in October.

While the coalition agreements signed between the parties and Likud committed to pass such legislation before the state budget is passed, the government now has only four weeks to clear the complicated, two-year trillion-shekel budget through the committee process and two more votes on the Knesset floor before its May 29 deadline, or risk triggering an automatic dissolution of parliament and snap elections.

The Haredi parties reportedly agreed that passing the budget and ensuring the stability of the government is the best way for them to eventually pass such legislation later this year.

Nevertheless, revered rabbis of the respective Haredi parties have yet to approve the postponement.

The issue of Haredi enlistment in the IDF is highly contentious both within and outside of the current coalition, and is a topic that has been hotly debated for decades. The High Court of Justice has twice struck down broad religious study exemptions, and the Knesset has failed to draft legislation to both skirt anti-discrimination laws and satisfy ultra-Orthodox politicians.

Instead, defence ministers have been requesting and receiving extensions on passing legislation on the issue from the court. The current, 15th extension is scheduled to expire on July 31, 2023.

In practice, only around 1,000 Haredim are drafted to the IDF each year, out of approximately 11,000 ultra-Orthodox males who turn 18 each year.

According to the IDF, the number of ultra-Orthodox military recruits has increased in recent years, but they still remain a minority. Based on data by the Central Bureau of Statistics for 2020, the Haredi population stood at 1,175,000 people. The number of Haredi recruits stood at 1,906 in 2016, 1,374 in 2017, 1,788 in 2018, and 1,222 in 2019, in every case, slightly more than one-tenth of one percent of the entire sector. 

The leaders of Israel’s Haredi communities oppose performing mandated national civil or military service, seeing it as a way for external forces to potentially draw away its members. Some more extreme elements in the Haredi community have engaged in violent protests against military conscription.

 

 "We prefer to die than serve in the IDF"

 Meanwhile, Jerusalem Affairs Minister Meir Porush, (Agudat Yisrael faction of United Torah Judaism) has demanded the implementation of a so-called override clause allowing the Knesset to re-legislate legislation struck down by the High Court of Justice. Alternatively, he has called for a pre-empting mechanism that would protect certain bills from the High Court’s review.

 I want to conclude by quoting from an article published by Israel Hayom

Under the heading- “The price of defying convention.” The author highlighted the difficulties Haredi soldiers face after completing their military service. Suffice to mention just one complex situation they have to deal with. It concerns finding a wife by the traditional matchmaking, or shidduchim method, as it is called in the ultra-Orthodox world. “It is bad enough that the soldiers have to deal with the consequences of choices that their families might disapprove of, but they also struggle to move on by establishing a family of their own

And even if a particular family is accepting of their son's decision to enlist, the larger community might not be as accommodating.”

Right from the beginning of their army service they face difficulties. "Almost every Haredi soldier who comes from a classic ultra-Orthodox family is considered a ‘lone soldier’ by the IDF. Parents don't necessarily hate their son [who enlisted], but they rarely accept someone who chose a different path. At the swearing-in ceremonies of Haredi units, you will hardly see any suits or hats. They [family and friends] just don't come." 

"And even if the families accept it, the reactions and the attitude of the neighbourhood cause them heavy financial and mental damage.” …One Haredi soldier voiced a problem common to many others. “You feel you are the disappointment of the family, that you are [negatively] affecting your younger brothers. The experience of returning home for Shabbat, to the ultra-Orthodox community, in uniform, and with a weapon, is not pleasant. That is why Haredi soldiers are permitted to wear civilian clothes while on leave from the army.

Despite the difficulties they encounter many manage to settle down after the army.

 

Take care

 

Beni,                                                  4^th of May, 2023.