“All’s Well That Ends Well.”

 

On the 4th of April 1966 I celebrated the Pesach/Passover Seder at Ein Harod. Earlier in the day I watched the “Cutting of the Omer” ceremony in a field near the kibbutz. Both events have become an integral part of my personal ‘Israeli cultural psyche.’

Our communal Pesach Seder this year included a few innovations, one in particular deserves mention. Chad Gadya or Had Gadya "one little goat, or "one kid” is a playful cumulative song  in Aramaic and Hebrew. It is sung at the end of the Passover Seder.  The melody is thought to have been adopted from  a Mediaeval German folk song.  It first appeared in a Haggadah printed in Prague in 1590, which makes it the most recent inclusion in the traditional Passover Seder liturgy.

This year the song was sung and dramatised on stage in the kibbutz dining room by an enthusiastic group of adults and children replete with appropriate character-part costumes. It was an instant ‘hit’ and received standing ovations.

Had Gadya has inspired graphic artists too.

An exhibition of works by artist Frank Stella just opened at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles. Stella is not Jewish, but a number of his works have Jewish themes — including his colourful illustrations of “Had Gadya.”  Stella’s work is featured along with his inspiration: the artwork from a Yiddish picture book illustrated by the Russian avant-garde artist El Lissitzky. 

Stella made his own images after seeing Lissitzky’s 11 “Had Gadya” lithographs at the Tel Aviv Museum in 1981. Lissitzky’s pictures, published in 1919, are highly stylised, incorporating elements of Russian folk art as well as cubism, futurism and constructivism. Yet Lissitzky’s images are still recognisable depictions of the kid, cat, dog and other characters from the “Had Gadya” story.

Not wanting to spoil the festive atmosphere I hesitated before including the next news item. 

 A report in Deutsche Welle (DW) revealed how an Israeli army battalion, ‘Netzah Yehuda,’ may, among other things, be excluded from receiving US financial support. The US has never imposed sanctions on the IDF before.

Numerous media outlets are reporting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to announce sanctions against a battalion of the IDF. Netzah Yehuda has been accused of human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and an expert on the Israel-Palestinian conflict at King’s College, London, said -  “The Israelis will fight hard to try and prevent it”.

He noted, however, that even though the Netzah Yehuda is an integral part of the IDF, it is “a unit every army should be ashamed of.”

“My fellow Israelis will hate me saying it but Netzah Yehuda is a sort of an Israeli-style  Wagner Group." Bregman added.

The Netzah Yehuda Battalion went too far on 12 January 2022 when 78-year-old Omar Assad was detained by Netzah Yehuda soldiers and died of a heart attack. His body was later found abandoned at a building site. The problem was that Assad had dual Palestinian-American citizenship – and the US opened up a criminal investigation into the matter.

Israel dismissed two officers over the incident and reprimanded the battalion commander but never opened a criminal investigation. According to prosecutors, there was no link between the errors made by the unit’s soldiers and Assad’s death.

At the end of 2022, the unit was redeployed to the Golan Heights  and later to Gaza .

The threatened US sanction would thus conclude the investigation into Assad’s death.

According to the Associated Press news agency, the US has been investigating five army units for serious human rights violations. These sanctions, however, would only apply to this unit, imposing two restrictions: Firstly, no US military aid would go to Netzah Yehuda; secondly, its participation in training programmes financed by the US would be limited. The Israeli government has already declared that it will oppose the sanctions.

The Netzah Yehuda battalion was established in the late 1990s as a special religious unit, with specific conditions to facilitate military service for ultra-orthodox Jews (Haredim). The men are given time for prayer and religious studies and contact with female soldiers is very limited.

Both Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz held separate talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken late Sunday as they sought to dissuade Washington from going ahead with reported plans to slap sanctions on an Israeli military unit with a problematic rights record, Israeli officials said.

State Department readouts on the calls made no mention of the Israeli concerns, using vague language to portray the talks as the latest in a series of conversations on Gaza and other challenges.

The Axios news site reported  Saturday that following months of deliberations by an internal panel, the US State Department intended to sanction the battalion. The IDF said  it is unaware of such plans.

Two US sources told the Times of Israel on Sunday that Washington is mulling additional sanctions against other Israeli police and military units.

Netzah Yehuda, a Kfir infantry brigade unit set up specifically for religious troops, but which also attracts settler extremists, has been repeatedly embroiled in allegations of abuses against Palestinians.

What came next was a dramatic change of mind.

The United States has opted not to impose sanctions on IDF Netzah Yehuda Battalion, Ynet reported on Wednesday afternoon, citing sources from within Israel.

The decision comes after intense pressure from various segments of the Israeli political spectrum. 

Arutz Sheva Israel National News reported that Israel is cautiously predicting that the US has stopped, at least for now, its intention to impose unprecedented sanctions on the IDF's Netzah Yehuda Battalion.

Itamar Eichner Ynet also reported that Israeli officials are cautiously predicting that the US won’t impose sanctions.

Israel made it clear in talks with the Americans that the state would cooperate and show them that the problematic incidents were resolved.

A moment after I sent last week’s ‘newsletter’ Israel is reported to have launched a drone strike against Iran. The same source claims Israeli officials notified their US counterparts in Washington: an attack was in the works, they said, and without sharing specifics, indicated it would be carried out in the next several days.

It was exactly the message the Biden administration had hoped they wouldn’t receive. Throughout the week, US officials had urged Israel not to retaliate for Iran’s unprecedented attack  five days prior, when hundreds of missiles and drones were fired from inside Iran at Israel.

US officials worried that any Israeli counter-strike could trigger an escalating cycle of direct action between the two nations that could spiral out of control.

“We didn’t endorse Israel’s response a senior official said

The back-and-forth attacks of the past week have left US officials concerned that a barrier that once existed between Israel and Iran has now been breached, leading to a new form of direct confrontation that could be infinitely more volatile and difficult to predict.

How Iran responds will now be a crucial test of whether the two nations have entered the opening stages of direct conflict — or whether both sides can step back from the brink.

There are some signs that the situation may be defusing.

US intelligence has long assessed that neither Iran nor Israel has any appetite for an outright war. Israel’s retaliatory strike appears to have been designed to be limited, striking a single military base about 275 miles from Tehran and leaving untouched two nearby facilities that are an important part of Iran’s nuclear development programme.

A regional intelligence source with knowledge of Iran’s reaction to the attack said that the direct state to state strikes between the two countries were “over.” Iran was not expected to respond.

There’s more good news. The $26 billion US financial aid package to Israel is due to arrive soon.

 

“All’s Well That Ends Well.”

 

Beni,

 

 25th of April, 2024.

 

Over the weekend.

 

I was wrong! My gut-feeling was that Iran would be content with seizing an Israeli-linked container ship in the Gulf of Oman in lieu of a direct reprisal for the attack on Iran’s consular building in Damascus on April 1.

Richard Haass, one of America’s leading foreign policy strategists, believes Tehran’s weekend attack has thrown Israel “the lifeline of lifelines.” It seems that for the time being, at least, Israel is no longer regarded as a pariah state.

Like many Americans, Richard Haass is still trying to understand why Iran decided to attack Israel directly with a barrage of hundreds of missiles and UAVs, most of which were intercepted. Haass believes Iran has miscalculated and will come to regret its decision to shift from its longtime strategy of using proxy forces to attack Israel. Instead, Iran chose to target mainly Israel’s urban centres. Consequently, the Iranian attack has evoked empathy and support for Israel.

Middle East analyst and US foreign policy expert Aaron David Miller said in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) -

“Israel cannot allow this to go unchallenged, but all-out war is not inevitable.

Israeli retaliation against Iran is likely at some point but it will have to be carefully choreographed so as not to spark a major regional war which wouldn't be in Israel's interests.

Even though the Iranian strikes caused very little damage, a new precedent was set, a new threshold was crossed, new rules were established.”

Miller, a former advisor to both Republican and Democratic US secretaries of state, said the precise timing, nature and scale of an Israeli counterstrike is "impossible to predict," but suggested it would be aimed at "conventional military facilities."

According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California and an expert on Iran’s military, Iran has one of the largest ballistic missiles and UAV arsenals in the Middle East.

It includes cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km.

According to U.S. estimates, Iran has over 3,000 heavy ballistic missiles like those launched against Israel, and has significantly improved their accuracy over the past decade.

Iran has at least nine types of missiles able to travel the 1,000-kilometre distance to Israel at a speed of 3 kilometres per second; The IDF's multilayered aerial defences have the proven ability to respond but no defence system is foolproof.

The Iranians don’t hide these weapons, they proudly display them during annual military parades. The country also hopes to turn the production of UAVs into a major export business. Currently, Iran's UAVs are being used by Russia in the war in Ukraine and have also seen action in Sudan.

I want to add a brief margin note here – The poor performance of Iran’s missiles and UAVs last weekend certainly won’t help promote its UAV sales.

The usually reliable Wall Street Journal quoted an unnamed source, claiming that "about half of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran were not launched properly or crashed before reaching their destination." Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles during its attack on Israel, and only about half of them were successfully intercepted. The rest failed for technical reasons.

Let’s return to the main text: -

 

Although the sale of the Arrow-3 missile defence system to Germany, (valued at approximately $3.6 billion) was concluded last November, it will likely arouse interest among other potential customers. It’s reasonable to suppose that the unprecedented success of Israeli air defence systems during the Iranian offensive last weekend will help to promote additional sales.

The operation involved the air defence forces of the US, the UK, France, and Jordan. The bulk of the interceptions were carried out by Israel's multi-layered air defence system, which includes the Arrow 3 to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, Arrow 2 to intercept ballistic missiles within the atmosphere, David's Sling to intercept advanced short-and medium-range threats, and Iron Dome for short-range threats.

While the US, Britain and France are military allies of Israel, Jordan’s involvement was a dramatic show of support from Amman.

Understandably, Jordan downplayed the part it played in the multi-national defence against the Iranian offensive. Reuters quoted a Jordanian cabinet statement, casually remarking that, “Some ‘flying objects’ that entered its airspace on Saturday night were intercepted to ensure the safety of its citizens. "Some shrapnel fell in multiple places during that time without causing any significant damage or any injuries," it added.
At this juncture it’s pertinent to note that- Israel has a vested interest in propping-up the Hashemite kingdom whenever it is threatened, though not entirely for altruistic reasons. Let’s say, undeclared, but mutually beneficial motivations. 

Now regarding the timing of the Iranian offensive. A UAV (drone) flies slowly. A missile does not. Thus, Iran had to synchronise its attack, launching its larger number of UAVs hours before its faster-flying ballistic missiles. The United States has access to Iraqi air space—both for missile defence and for overflight of fighters—and Jordan has given the United States access for operations in Syria in recent years. The result is that as Iran prepared to attack, the United States could fly along its border and shoot down UAVs in large numbers. The same is true in Jordan. Thus, the UAV threat was largely negated, which allowed for Israeli and American missile defence systems to destroy operational Iranian missiles as far out as Iraq and as close in as Jordan.

Iran's massive missile attack overnight between Saturday and Sunday on Israel was stopped largely by Israel's sophisticated defence systems. It obviously costs a lot of money, and the question, among others that arises the next morning, is how much?  Brig. Gen. Reem Aminoach, former financial advisor to the IDF chief of staff, tried to estimate. "The defence tonight was on the order of more than a quarter of a billion dollars, “he said.

"If we're talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes - then add up the costs - $3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David's Sling, such and such costs for airplanes.

The US and Israel had been bracing for an attack for days after Iran said it would retaliate for the alleged Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus.  

The Pentagon said its forces intercepted “dozens of missiles” and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen that were headed toward Israel.

US military forces, operating from undisclosed bases in the region, shot down a number of Iranian drones in Sweida and Deraa provinces in southern Syria near the Jordanian border.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari confirmed on Sunday morning that France was also involved in Israel’s defence, though he said he did not have exact details on whether French jets had shot down any of the missiles launched by Iran.

US President Joe Biden said Saturday that US forces helped take down “nearly all” the drones and missiles fired by Iran at Israel.

At this stage I’m not sure which military took down what, or whether it really matters.

After reading numerous news media reports on the Iranian attack and speculations regarding its aftermath, it’s clear that the last word on this topic hasn’t been written yet. The classified material will probably be locked up for decades. In the meantime, extant material will suffice for a number of doctoral dissertations.

Maybe a little peeved at being left out of the regional military action, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent his foreign minister to conduct a bit of backdoor diplomacy.

Turkey does not want further escalation of tension in the region after Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told his Iranian counterpart in a phone call on Sunday. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Fidan that its "retaliatory operation" against Israel had ended, adding that Iran would not launch a new operation unless it was attacked.

Maybe not the last word, but a good summing-up was provided by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday. “Israel has shown that it is strong and could defend itself”. ... "Iran is isolated with its aggressive behaviour with which it wants to destabilise an entire region"... Baerbock called on Iran to forgo further attacks including via proxies as a regional escalation would have incalculable consequences.

 

As I write millions of Jews all over the world are preparing to celebrate Pesach/Passover. The oldest festival in the Hebrew calendar.

 

Chag Pesach sameach.

 

Beni

 

18th of April, 2024.

Concerned, but safe.

 In the weekly column he writes for The Guardian British journalist Jonathan Freedland said, “After six months, the war in Gaza is making Israel a pariah state.” ...

“Netanyahu’s decisions have brought death to Palestinians and harmed his own people. Hamas laid a trap and he walked right in.”

 I want to insert a margin note here: I think many, if not most Middle East affairs analysts agree that Israel is rapidly becoming a pariah state. However, I doubt if they would give Hamas credit for laying a trap for Netanyahu.

“So, what might be the lasting consequences of this six-month war? Who will emerge weaker and who stronger?” Freedland asked.

“At first glance, you might assume Hamas would be disappointed by the results of its murderous efforts on October 7.                                   Hamas’s rampage through southern Israel brought hellfire down on the people of Gaza, provoking an Israeli response that has left a staggering 2% of the population dead and displaced the rest.

Another margin note regarding the fatalities. No matter how they are counted, innocent bystanders who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, or Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists intentionally ‘terminated’ by the IDF, they will be lumped together statistically by people who don’t want to distinguish between the two categories. 

 

 That scale of destruction won’t unduly trouble Hamas leaders: the death of others is a sacrifice they are willing to make. But they will lament the losses among their own: an estimated 10,000 men, more than a third of their fighting force, along with three battalion commanders and seven members of the ruling political bureau, according to Michael Milshtein, a former senior intelligence officer, widely regarded as Israel’s foremost expert on Hamas. “Hamas has lost or used up almost all its arsenal of rockets – and, its greatest disappointment, the action failed to spark the wider regional onslaught against Israel it dreamed of. Moreover, Milshtein said, Israeli forces have to face a further challenge.

Hamas has lost about 10,000 of their 30,000 members, but this gap can be closed quickly," he said. "In Gaza there are plenty of young Palestinians that want to join Hamas.

And yet, Hamas will regard itself as anything but the loser in the six-month war. For all of Benjamin Netanyahu’s talk of the ‘total defeat’ of Hamas, it is still standing. Most of its key Gaza leaders remain alive and present; it is still ‘the prominent actor in Gaza”.

Despite all that the people of Gaza have endured, their approval of Hamas’s role in the war stands at 70%, according to the veteran Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki.

Still, the chief source of the satisfaction Hamas will be feeling, six months on from October 7, lies elsewhere – not in what’s happened to it, but rather in what’s happened to its mortal enemy: Israel.

For six months, Israel has asked for the world’s understanding, trying to explain that it faces a brutal enemy – one that hides underground, among and underneath a civilian population, and thinks nothing of firing rockets and missiles from hospitals, schools and mosques. For that reason, foreign governments have granted Israel considerable forbearance. But that has now run out. And much of it comes down to the decisions Israel took not on combat, but on aid.

  Amid the slaughter and with famine looming, Israel's allies must say enough is enough. If not now, when?

 I don’t blame the Israeli public for that. But I do blame their leaders. Even if they did nothing to address the root causes of the conflict, their job was to transcend the rage and terror of that moment, to think calmly and strategically even amid the panic. To realise in that moment that their fight was with Hamas, not the entire population of  Gaza. Instead, they have sown hatred in the hearts of a new generation, and they have made lonely a country that cannot function alone.

So, no, there are no winners in this dreadful war.” Freedland concluded.

Kobi Michael, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), wrote in a recent analysis “Hamas has also been affected by the loss of military personnel. Nevertheless, it will survive politically."

Kobi Michael is convinced Hamas is able to recover to a limited extent, albeit "without the advanced rocket capabilities displayed during this war."

Gil Murciano, CEO of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies echoed that view, saying Hamas fighters would still be able to operate in small groups using guerrilla tactics. 

"However, it is no longer functional at battalion level as only four battalions are still operational in Rafah. They may have been weakened by the IDF, but they are still functional." 

In Israel, the idea of a two-state solution has lost traction since the Oct. 7 attack, according to a number of polls conducted recently. 

The sentiment aligns with Netanyahu's longtime opposition to an independent Palestinian state, but that hasn't boosted his popularity since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

 Worrying as undoubtedly it is, our immediate concern is an Iranian reprisal attack.

Western and Arab governments are rushing to convince Iran to show restraint as the US warned allies that Tehran was close to military retaliation against Israel over an attack on its Damascus consulate. The diplomatic push on Thursday came as concerns rose in western capitals that Iran is preparing to respond directly against Israel, rather than through proxies, to avenge the assassination of several Iranian top generals last week. Washington has recently informed allies that Iran’s retaliation could be imminent as it urged them to put pressure on Tehran to hold back. A US  spokesman said a direct strike by Iran on Israel was possible, an action that would significantly escalate six months of hostilities in the region.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock phoned her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Thursday to discuss the rapidly worsening security situation. “Nobody can have any interest in regional escalation,” the German foreign ministry said in a statement issued after Baerbock’s call. “All players in the region are called upon to act responsibly and exercise restraint.”

Amirabdollahian also held phone conversations with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar on Wednesday night, with Iran’s foreign ministry saying the consequences of Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate were among the topics discussed. He also spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that the attack last week, which killed several senior Iranian commanders, was equivalent to an attack on Iranian territory, and that Israel must be “punished”. Khamenei’s language, particularly in likening the attack to a breach of Iran’s sovereignty, has raised concerns that any retaliation will potentially be directly against Israel, rather than channelled through Iran’s proxies in the region. Responding to Khamenei’s statement, US President Joe Biden stressed his “ironclad” support for Israel, pointedly saying the US would do “all we can” to protect the security of its ally. A senior US official said Iran had delivered a message to Washington after the Damascus strike. In response, Washington warned Tehran “not to use the strike as a pretext to further escalate tension in the region or attack US facilities or personnel”. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on the Iranian consulate, which was widely seen as the most serious blow to the Iranian military since the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. However, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have all blamed Israel, and Iranian officials have repeatedly said there will be a response.

Israeli security analysts have said an Iranian attack could range from a strike via one of Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, to a direct attack on Israel from Iran itself, which could risk an escalation of the regional conflict. An Iranian official said last week that Israeli embassies were “no longer safe”, sparking speculation that they could be a potential target. Amid concerns of a broader conflict, the German airline Lufthansa, one of the few international carriers flying to Tehran, suspended flights to the Iranian capital.

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq called Iran’s foreign minister and discussed regional tensions.

According to an anonymous source the Arab foreign ministers spoke to their Iranian counterpart after they received calls from Brett McGurk, National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa. McGurk asked them to convey a message to Iran of the need to de-escalate the situation.

That being said, I sleep soundly at night placing my trust in our defence and security forces.

 

Stay safe.

 

Beni,

11th of April, 2024

Mostly good news.

 

Earlier this week I had singled out one item for this week’s blog – The Haredi conscription exemption law crisis.

Young men studying in yeshivas (yeshivot/religious seminaries) have since the founding of the State of Israel been exempt from mandatory military service –But, the exemption has never been enshrined in a law that the Supreme Court views as equitable, and for years has been carried out by patchwork government mandates. Last week the prime minister tried to delay the Supreme Court’s deadline to pass a law that would make the exemption official.

After decades of rulings on the subject, the Supreme Court told the government that it was illegal to both fund yeshivas and exempt their students from conscription. In a recent ruling, the Supreme Court said that as of April 1, the government could no longer transfer funds to yeshivas whose students did not receive legitimate deferments.

The conscription law crisis is intensifying as the Attorney General, Gali Baharav Miara, opposes postponing the government's appeal to the High Court regarding the Haredi conscription exemption law drafted by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

At this point, the government is considering delaying the decision without Miara's support. Time was running out: the request had to be submitted to the High Court by midnight, 31st of March. If I’m not mistaken the government requested an extension. If so, the judges will likely reject it. Otherwise, as of April 1, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will begin conscripting Haredi young men. In addition, the government will have to cut yeshivot funding.

The question of conscripting Haredi men has been one of the most burning issues in Israeli politics for years and could put an end to the existing coalition government. Netanyahu has avoided advancing legislation on this matter, knowing that such a polarising move could bring down his government. Maybe this time he has come to the end of his tether. In the meantime, other matters have engaged our attention.

On Monday night six missiles fired from an Israeli F-35 combat aircraft hit and destroyed a building belonging to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. At the time, a meeting between high-ranking members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was being held in the building. The attack resulted in the death of two IRGC generals: Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was the leader of the Quds force- the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon – and his deputy, Sardar Haji Rahimi. Five other IRGC officers were killed in the operation.

Understandably, Iran was furious and condemned the attack claiming it was a gross violation of diplomatic immunity.

An Israeli spokesman said the building targeted was used as an Iranian military base and therefore is not protected by diplomatic immunity status.

New York Times correspondent Amanda Taub opined, “For centuries, diplomatic premises have been afforded special protections. Diplomats get immunity from prosecution in their host country, and embassy buildings are often viewed as a sanctuary for their nation’s citizens — they cannot be entered by the host country’s police without the permission of diplomatic staff, and often become refuges for expatriates in times of war.

So, attacks on diplomatic compounds carry particular weight, both in law and in the popular imagination. But in this case, experts say, Israel can likely argue that its actions did not violate international law’s protections for diplomatic missions. Namely, because Israel maintains that the building targeted was used as an Iranian military base.”

 I doubt if anyone is digging in the rubble at the site to verify the building’s function. Anyway, once Israeli intelligence personnel knew about the meeting taking place in the embassy compound, they were loath to miss a golden opportunity to ‘take out’ the villains.

Apparently, Israel was managing quite well. Then, a report in Deutsche Welle (DW) told how the US, Germany and other countries are seeking answers after an airstrike in Gaza killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers. IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi said the strike that killed the World Central Kitchen (WCK) workers in Gaza was a "grave mistake."

"It was a mistake that followed a misidentification, at night, during a war, in very complex conditions. It shouldn't have happened," Halevi said during a video recorded statement released on Wednesday.

The military chief made the comments after having been presented with the initial findings of a preliminary investigation that was initiated after the deadly strike.

Halevi said the Israeli military will "continue taking immediate action to ensure more is done to protect humanitarian aid workers."

"Israel is at war with Hamas, not with the people of Gaza. We are sorry for the unintentional harm to the members of WCK," Halevi said. His investigation is a top priority and needs to cut through the usual procedural stages in order to determine what happened.

I’ll hazard a guess and say that anti-Israel demonstrators everywhere will exploit the WCK tragic incident.

 

Take care.

Beni,

4th of April, 2024.

 

 

Back to square one.

 

My weekly blog/letter/post has never been written “off the cuff”.  In fact, it’s a time-consuming occupation, often fraught with difficulties. Occasionally, an unexpected event forces me to revise everything I have written. Admittedly, it’s frustrating, but having to go back to ‘square one’ has its benefits. The second rendition is always better and the extra effort tends to ward off senility and all that comes with it.

I’ll begin with an editorial posted in The Economist last week -

“The war in Gaza may topple Hamas without making Israel safer

It will end up even more deeply mired in the conflict that is the main threat to its security.”

 “I wish I could say we have a very detailed plan,” an Israeli army officer admitted referring to the chaotic days following Hamas’s brutal assault on southern Israel on October 7. It was clear from the outset of the war in Gaza, now six months old, that Israel’s two main goals—to eliminate Hamas and to free the hostages—were at odds. It was also clear that invading the territory, in which 2.2m people live cheek by jowl and under which Hamas had built a labyrinth of fortified tunnels to help it withstand an attack, was going to be immensely difficult. And there was always the risk that war in Gaza would spiral into a bigger conflict.

It is possible to look at this unpromising starting point and conclude that Israel’s invasion of Gaza has not gone badly—and many Israelis take just that view. After all, Hamas’s fighting capacity has been massively reduced, with little in the way of Israeli casualties*. Some of the hostages have been released and negotiations continue in an attempt to free the remainder. And all the while, there has been no regional conflagration, nor even much unrest in the West Bank or among Israeli Arabs.

*My comment- Israelis are very sensitive regarding war casualties

In Israeli culture, getting a ‘knock on the door’ has become code for receiving the worst possible news. The thought of someone knocking on your door is enough to set you off thinking about the pain and fear that come after a loved one has been killed.

That knock on the door is accompanied by a designated IDF team that commiserates with the bereaved family at their time of dire need.

I recall during WW2 when two of my cousins were killed in battle, one in Italy and his brother in France. My aunt and uncle were notified by an official telegram pushed under their front door.  

There are other casualties of the Gaza war that survived the trauma.

Returned hostage Amit Soussana provided The New York Times with a first in-depth interview about the sexual violence and torture she went through in Gaza, following her abduction during the Hamas-led October 7 attack on southern Israel.

During eight hours of interviews with The New York Times, in mid-March, Soussana provided the most in-depth view into her life and the horrors she experienced since October 7. The report included interviews with doctors who treated the former hostage as soon as she returned from Gaza, as well as the medical records, videos, text messages and photographs.

The UN sent its own team to investigate the claims, and in a report spanning 24 pages, it was stated that there are "reasonable grounds to believe" that Hamas terrorists committed sexual violence at multiple locations during the assault, as well as credible information indicating other forms of sexual violence, such as genital mutilation and sexualized torture.

Reuters also quoted from the report in the NYT adding that “Amit Soussana, 40, was taken hostage on Oct.7 from Kibbutz Kfar Aza. Security camera footage showed her fighting back against her abductors. She said that around Oct. 24th she was attacked by the man guarding her after washing in the bathroom. Soussana said the guard, who called himself Muhammad, put a gun to her forehead, beat her and dragged her to a child's bedroom. "Then he, with the gun pointed at me, forced me to commit a sexual act on him," Soussana said in the interview.

 After paging down through Aljazeera’s website, I found a brief refence to Amit Soussana’s testimony – “Military spokesman Daniel Hagari said Amit Soussana’s testimony published on Tuesday by The New York Times was a wake-up call to the world to act, to do everything and pressure Hamas, to free our hostages”.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog wrote on X that “the whole world has a moral duty to stand with Amit – and all the victims – in condemning Hamas’s brutal terror, and in demanding the immediate return of all the hostages”.

Aljazeera added “Hamas has denied its fighters committed acts of sexual violence.”

 

Let’s turn a page to something entirely different, a snippet of news from ‘The Land of the Long White Cloud’- New Zealand.

 As a kind of ex-pat, I receive news about New Zealand through a subscription to The Bulletin published by Spinoff, a New Zealand website covering pop culture, politics and social life through features, criticism, interviews, videos and podcasts. Most of the content is as dull as dishwater and wouldn’t warrant a mention in Israel.

Despite our wars and incompetent government, Israel ranked as the second happiest country for those under 30, with a score of 7.667, according to the World Happiness Report.

The country outperforms the average in life satisfaction, social connections, and health, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Better Life Index. The life expectancy at birth is 83 years, two years higher than the OECD average of 81.

Israel is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world and includes cut diamonds and pharmaceuticals among its major exports, according to the U.S. News and World Report.

While the cost of living in Israel is, on average, only 7.9% lower than in the United States, rent is, on average, 30% lower than in America, according to Numbeo. (Cost of living website)

In the Middle East and Central Asia, Israel ranked at fifth place, leads the region’s happiness levels, dropping one spot since 2023.

The report notes that Gallup’s survey in Israel occurred after October 7, but before much of the subsequent warfare. Thus, life evaluations fell by 0.9 for the year, of which only one-third impacted their final score.

Understandably, the survey in Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) (ranked 103rd globally) took place earlier in the year, before October 7.

In the Happiness Rankings by Country, Age 60 and up New Zealand was ranked in fifth place slightly below Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland.

Israel was listed in thirteenth place.

In the Happiness Rankings by Country, Ages 45-59, Israel was ranked in seventh place slightly below the same Nordic countries and New Zealand a notch lower in thirteenth place.

Personally, I’m happy where I am and wouldn’t prefer to be any place else.

Have a good weekend.

Beni,

29th of March, 2024

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing new under the sun.

 

If some reason you missed my weekly post you can view it by accessing my blog site -

https://benisisraelinewsletter.blogspot.com/

 

I appreciate your feedback, comments etc.,

First of all, I want to quote from- 

Ecclesiastes 1-9 King James version “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done, is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun.”

On April 7, 2011, I wrote -

“I’ve got Gaza on my mind!

Last week three Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip when the car they were travelling in was strafed by an IAF jet fighter. A few days later two Palestinians were shot by an Israeli patrol near the Gaza security fence.

Given the bare and incomplete details of these two incidents a casual observer might be tempted to assume that Israel is engaged in a series of unprovoked attacks on Gaza's helpless citizens.

However, If I mention that the three men in the car were members of the Hamas military wing en-route to kidnap Israeli tourists in Sinai, it's clear that their timely demise came not a moment too soon.

Likewise, the two men shot by the security fence were also Hamas operatives. trying to set roadside bombs near the border.”

Well, it seems that Gaza will engage our attention for quite a while to come.

In a lighter vein I’ll begin with an item listed under Trivia-

Stewart Island is New Zealand’s third largest Island, situated 30 kilometres south of the South Island across the Foveaux Strait. Its total land mass amounts to 1,680 square kilometres. By comparison, the Gaza Strip is about 365 square kilometres. However, 85% of Stewart Island is National Park, leaving no more than 15%, a mere 252 sq. Km for any future settlement. But, if need be, I’m sure more of the park land can be set aside for urban settlement. By now you have probably guessed where I am heading. Bear with me a bit, because I want to add an important detail. I vaguely recall reading several years ago something about a debate in New Zealand’s parliament concerning Stewart Island’s population crisis – (total population, about 450 +-). One MP suggested inviting Jews to settle there. A fellow lawmaker reminded him that there is a Jewish state called Israel.

Nevertheless, let’s consider what Stewart Island has to offer-

“Most people come to the island for the hiking and birdwatching. The island has just 28km of road, but 280km of walking tracks suited to short walks, day walks and multi-day hikes.

Stewart Island is a haven for the brown kiwi, which outnumber humans on the island and are active day and night. Blue penguins and the rare yellow-eyed penguins waddle among the rocks. Offshore on Ulva Island, you’ll find a predator-free bird sanctuary with dozens of native species
The Stewart Islanders are a proud and independent bunch, but they’re friendly too. I wonder how they will take to Palestinian refugees from Gaza and how the Gazans will appreciate the Stewart Islanders’ hospitality and all that natural beauty?  Forget it, just one of my usual facetious comments.

David Brinn is a former managing editor of The Jerusalem Post. He settled in Israel in 1985 and has worked in many capacities at the Post since 1990.

Here’s an extract of some of the things he wrote in his op-ed on

March 18, 2024: -

“It’s time to face reality

Israel has already won the war on the battlefield. Hamas is a shell of its former self. But Israel is suffering a terrible loss on the battlefield of diplomacy.

The issue of whether we went overboard in our assault on Hamas or held back too much – both views are held in Israel – but it’s no longer a relevant question. That’s because Israel has lost the support of the world in its effort to secure its southern border, free the more than 130 hostages held alive or dead in Gaza, and eradicate Hamas.

It no longer matters if we prove that Hamas is doctoring the numbers of civilian fatalities, or that the army has the lowest civilian-to-terrorist ratio of fatalities in any war.

 It no longer matters if the IDF continues to uncover Hamas strongholds in hospitals or schools, or tunnels under cemeteries.

The world is no longer concerned that Hamas is still holding all those hostages after more than 160 days

And it no longer matters that Hezbollah has declared war on Israel and 200,000 Israelis are displaced in the North.

The world no longer cares, and they want the war to end. We lost Europe long ago and we’ve now lost Schumer, with Biden quickly following.

An offensive in Rafah – with a likely spike in civilian deaths – will propel that feeling to the extreme.

The  news media presenters are no longer interested in stories about Israel – only about Gaza, where the F (famine) word is bandied about by everyone from the UN to the Vatican.

Despite launching this totally justified war, there is now no way that Israel can emerge unscathed in its stature in the international community.

There is a general agreement around the world that, despite what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeats about ‘total victory,’ no matter how much Israel battles on, how many Hamas commanders are killed, and how much the terror infrastructure is decimated, the Hamas raison d'être cannot be wiped out.

Israel must now decide what is more important – to save the lives of as many hostages as possible or to continue to go after the remaining Hamas battalions and Sinwar. If we agree to a deal with Hamas, we can still say we gave it our best shot and the 200-plus soldiers who fell in Gaza will not have died in vain.

But at some point – which is now – Israel can’t continue to buck the international community and not risk turning into a pariah state. Our ties with the US are frayed, with EU states belligerent and with international bodies like the UN downright hostile. Being right – which Israel is – doesn’t necessarily mean being smart.”

I’m inclined to agree with him.

Just the same I want to conclude on a festive note!

We are celebrating Purim this week!

Here at Ein Harod, the main Purim celebration is held on Friday night. Most people are happy to celebrate Purim without doubting the historicity of the narrative.

 

‘Chag Purim Sameach’

 

Beni,

 

23rd of March, 2024.

    

The Devil is in the details.

 

If some reason you missed my weekly post you can view it by accessing my blog site -

https://benisisraelinewsletter.blogspot.com/

A piece in the Christian Science Monitor dedicated to the role of women in the IDF warrants more than a passing mention

“As Israel grapples with war and trauma, women’s rights advocates say the conflict may serve as a turning point in society’s views of their roles, especially as soldiers in combat.

Gender has been a central element of the war since it was sparked by the Oct. 7 attack, in which Hamas employed systematic sexual and gender-based violence on a scale unknown in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Women have long been drafted into the IDF, but the majority traditionally have served in administrative, support, or training positions.

In Israel’s pre-Oct. 7 debate over women serving in combat roles in mixed-gender units, resistance was especially strong on the far-right and in some religious establishments.

In a November 2022 poll by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, 53% of Israelis supported women serving in combat roles, with 35% against.

Last week, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum provided the International Criminal Court in The Hague with 1,000 pages of testimony from released hostages and eyewitnesses, along with forensic evidence, alleging torture, gender-based violence, and sexual violence by Hamas.

It was the latest in a campaign by families led by mothers, sisters, and forensics and legal experts to pressure for hostages’ releases and have Hamas’ leadership tried for war crimes.

Leading Israeli women rights and legal experts are assisting the campaign and coordinating with United Nations’ special rapporteurs on torture and sexual violence to build a legal case.  

“My goal is to have Oct. 7 go down in history side by side with those previous cases of weaponizing women and sexual violence in war such as Bosnia, Rwanda, and the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo],” says Ruth Halperin-Kaddari, an expert in gender studies and international law and director of the Rackman Center for the Advancement of the Status of Women at Bar-Ilan University.

As members of the Civil Commission on October 7 Crimes by Hamas Against Women and Children, Professor Halperin-Kaddari and others are documenting crimes and reaching out to experts in gender-based violence used as a tactic in previous wars.

“It is needed for Israeli society at large. I think this recognition is important in terms of recovery from the collective trauma,” she says.

In the past a large part of the opposition to women serving in combat units came from the IDF higher echelon doubting that women were physically capable of fighting as well as men.

Since then, women conscripts and career soldiers have removed all the barriers. Notably In the armoured corps, the airforce and elite combat units.

Recently a woman officer was appointed commander of one the IDF’s main airforce bases. Last but not least, a number women conscripts are training for the gruelling demands required for acceptance in the prestigious General Staff Reconnaissance Unit, more commonly known as Sayeret Matkal.

 A report in The Hill claims President Biden is shifting his tone as Israel’s war against Hamas rages on.

The president announced during the State of the Union address that the United States military will build a floating seaport to enable aid delivery to Gaza, where more than 30,000 Palestinians have died since Israel began its military campaign in October. Hundreds of thousands more face dwindling food and supplies; displaced Palestinians are struggling to feed their children.

The White House has warned Israel against a planned ground and air attack on Rafah in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. U.S. officials have expressed doubt that Israel can develop an effective plan to move the civilian population out of harm’s way ahead of the assault  according to a report  in The Wall Street Journal. 

The looming operation is a potential showdown between the White House and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which sees the assault as vital for the defeat of Hamas

In a Saturday MSNBC interview,  Biden said that an Israeli attack would cross a “red line” and left open the possibility that the U.S. might withhold some types of military assistance to Israel if the operation caused extensive civilian casualties.

“It is a red line, but I am never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical. So, there is no red line I am going to cut off all weapons, so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them,” Biden said “But there’s red lines that if he crosses…You cannot have 30,000 more Palestinians dead.”

A brief margin note - Somewhere I read that on the tripwire of a ‘red line,’ It’s often presidents who trip. Barack Obama drew one for Syria. George W. Bush drew several, for North Korea and Iran. Now President Biden has drawn one for Israel. The hard part is figuring out what to do when they are crossed.

Back to the main text and ‘How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers’ posted in Tablet magazine by Abraham Wyner, Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Faculty Co-Director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.

Digging into why the Hamas-compromised Gaza Health Ministry’s casualty numbers are highly suspect. Wyner’s work is digestible, incrementally working through what data are available. Perhaps best of all, he makes no claims as to what the casualty numbers might really be.

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough:

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behaviour of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported.

The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and others in Mosaic online magazine is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of non-combatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centres, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,

 

14th of March, 2024