Diplomacy and debacles.

 

Agnes Helou Middle East Bureau Chief for Breaking Defense reporting from Beirut said “Despite reports circulating in the newsmedia that the White House is in discussions with Saudi Arabia about normalizing relations with Israel, both Washington and Riyadh have been careful to slow-roll the idea that any agreement is imminent.” … 

“To be sure, such a normalization would drastically alter the geopolitical dynamics of the region on a historic scale. But several experts and analysts expressed varying degrees of scepticism about what could come of negotiations — if anything — considering the obstacles still in the path to an agreement.

Among the challenges: the need to uphold Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, the Palestinian issues, and Saudi Arabia’s relations with Iran. Perhaps above all else, the biggest factor, some experts said, may be the Kingdom’s understanding that it holds the cards and can try to bleed the Biden administration for major American concessions ahead of the presidential elections. “

The rest of Ms. Helou’s report meanders on, quoting numerous expert opinions.

However, in my humble opinion, most of them are speculative.  Suffice to say that any kind of normalisation agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia won’t happen now, or in the foreseeable future.

On reconsideration I’ll mention remarks made by David Des Roches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Centre for Security Studies. -

“I think the reports of Saudi Arabia’s interest in an agreement should be taken as a maximalist opening gambit in what is likely to be a long series of negotiations, which will only begin in earnest once both President [Joe] Biden and King Salman [bin Abdulaziz Al Saud] have left the political scene.” … “There is a lack of trust on both sides in this debate, and the type of concessions which the Kingdom will ask for are probably beyond the ability of the Biden administration to deliver.”

“The track record here is not promising,” Des Roches said. “The Saudis have been assured of US support and preferential access to US weapons in the past, and have been disappointed. In both the Trump and Obama administrations the Saudis received assurances that their requests for weapons would be ‘fast tracked’ through the bureaucracy, only to find that the fast track is still too slow for them.”

 Let’s move on to another topic, namely, two very tangible agreements in the field of military acquisitions. The US Marine Corps (USMC) is reportedly planning to purchase dozens of Iron Dome launchers and thousands of interceptor missiles in a deal that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The deal, which would see the USMC purchase three batteries’ worth of the Iron Dome system, would be conducted with Raytheon, which has a deal with Israeli manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to distribute the system to the United States.                                                            

The prime contractor for the development and production of the Iron Dome is Rafael, who adapted the system to USMC requirements and assisted with testing support.                                                                                                        Whereas the US marines anticipated the successful integration of the Iron Dome system, the US Army reluctantly purchased two Iron Dome systems after acquiescing to pressure from Congress. At the time, the US army’s top generals claimed the Iron Dome was incompatible with the US air-defence array. Apparently, the marines proved them wrong.

Though undoubtedly important, the Iron Dome Defence System deal is ‘small change’ when compared with the $3.5 billion sale of Israel's Arrow-3 missile defence system to Germany approved and concluded recently. US approval of the deal clears the way for delivery in 2025 and full operational deployment by 2030.

The deal with Germany is Israel's largest ever defence sale. It is part of a European arms build-up in response to Russia's war in Ukraine.

According to a statement issued by Israel's Defence Ministry the full contract will be ready to sign by the end of 2023. Israel and Germany will sign a Letter of Commitment, with a $600 million initial payment, to commence work on the project.

The Arrow-3 is an exoatmospheric hypersonic anti-ballistic missile, that uses a detachable warhead that collides with the target.  It is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the earth's atmosphere, at an altitude that facilitates the safe dispersal of any non-conventional warheads. The project is jointly funded, developed and produced by Israel and the United States. Undertaken by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing, it is overseen by the Israeli Ministry of Defence and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. 

A defence ministry spokesman was quoted as saying that additional German spending on Arrow-3 could raise the deal's value to $4 billion. The same spokesman added that other countries - which he declined to name - have voiced interest in the system. 

                                                                                                                            

At this juncture it’s important to note that Israel has repeatedly rebuffed requests to sell arms to Ukraine for fear of antagonising Moscow.                                                                                                                           The Arrow-3 is currently Israel’s most advanced long-range missile defence system, Work is underway on the development of a yet more advanced system, the Arrow-4.

Germany is seeking to bolster its air defences amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has sought to purchase the Arrow-3 system from Israel for more than a year now. The deal also came up in a meeting in April between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A number of commentators have emphasised the historic aspect of the Arrow-3 deal concluded seventy-five years after the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The director general of the Defence Ministry, Brig. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir, said the “landmark deal, the largest defence export agreement in our country’s history, will propel Israeli defence exports to a new record, following last year’s remarkable achievement of $12.5 billion.”

 

I can’t possibly conclude without putting a damper on the defence contracts good news.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed ministers and officials to confirm with him before holding or publicly reporting on any covert diplomatic meetings. The directive came after the debacle of Foreign Minister Eli Cohen's meeting in Rome with his Libyan counterpart. After news of the meeting broke, Libyans took to the streets in protest and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush was forced to flee to Turkey before being dismissed from her post. The prime minister claimed he was not informed in advance.

The original Israeli statement said the country’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, and Mangoush, his Libyan counterpart, spoke last week at a meeting in Rome hosted by the Italian foreign minister, Antonio Tajani.

Israeli officials claimed the meeting was pre-arranged by the Italian leadership and was not random or accidental, as the Libyans claimed. The Israeli and Libyan ministers even agreed to make public statements within a couple of days. Cohen returned to Israel intending to announce details of his diplomatic initiative, but someone beat him to it and leaked details of the meeting to the news media.

When the news broke, the ministry considered its options and decided to release an official statement late on Sunday, which as it turned out only made matters worse. Officials informed the government in Tripoli of the pending announcement and received no pushback from the Libyans.

The riots that ensued surprised officials in both countries. Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh first suspended his foreign minister who was shocked at how quickly she was thrown under the bus and hurried to leave the country by private jet to Istanbul. She was officially relieved of her post the following day after she said that her meeting with Cohen was with the explicit knowledge and approval of her prime minister.

 Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush

 In the aftermath of the unfortunate turn of events, members of the government, especially from the ruling Likud party, slammed Cohen and called him an amateur. "He leaked the meeting in order to get a newspaper headline and caused serious damage to Israel," one said. "Arab leaders will be reluctant to approach us in future.

Foreign Ministry officials were also critical of Cohen's conduct. Some told Ynet that he was an amateur in diplomacy. “When Israel's credibility is compromised, the outreach to other countries in the future will be affected. Cohen wanted to bring more countries into the peace process, but now he has shot himself in the foot."

 

With those assuring words I’ll conclude.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni

31/08/23

 

 Etherial and earthy topics

Late on Tuesday afternoon our old-timers ‘parliament’ convened at the usual venue- Eli’s Lookout’.

I’ve mentioned the place many times in the past. However, in case you have forgotten here’s a brief description I wrote in 2009 – “You won't find ‘Eli's Lookout’ on any ordinance map. Just the same, if you are looking for a vantage point with a wonderful view of our part of the Jezreel Valley, often referred to as the Harod Valley, Eli's Lookout is the place to visit. By sheer dint of dogged determination and do-it-yourself aptitude, Eli turned a rocky outcrop at the top of the hill above the kibbutz into a garden escape ideally suited for a family breakfast, a picnic, for celebrating a birthday party and of course as an observation point.

The lookout consists of pergolas with picnic tables, benches, facilities and a large wind chime, all set among lawns and flower beds.

Eli, by the way, is alive, well and enjoying his own memorial.”

Our parliamentarians were unusually reticent on Tuesday. Eli was otherwise occupied, so without his inimitable pessimism the conversation fell flat. It picked up just before sunset when a cool breeze blew across the hill setting the wind chimes ringing. Behind them, about 10 km as the crow flies Mount Tabor was clearly visible against the skyline. We were about to go home so I didn’t mention the scandal caused by the cancellation of a Christian festival celebrated on Mount Tabor. 

 The Times of Israel reported that a local firefighting service prevented Christian pilgrims from celebrating the Feast of the Transfiguration

“Authorities say a church site on Mount Tabor cannot safely contain thousands of tourists, so the event has been cancelled again this year.”

“The firefighting service claims that the fire-safety plan presented to them was inadequate and had apparently been copied from a different location without making the necessary adjustments. It comprised two fire extinguishers and an evacuation spot dozens of kilometres from the Greek Orthodox church on Mount Tabor. They also said the church itself had not been inspected for safety requirements, that there was only one evacuation route and that the site lacked sufficient water sources and firebreaks.

Wadia Abu Nasser, one of the leaders of the Christian community in Israel, told Ynet that thousands of tourists had arrived in Israel for the event, which did not take place last year either.

“A few days ago, a meeting was held between the Orthodox Council in Nazareth and the authorities, and it was agreed that the event would take place,” Nasser told Ynet. “We expected that after the cancellation last year, the firefighters would present us with all the safety requirements during the year so that we could hold our religious ritual just as others do. Only at the last minute did they remember to inform us that it was not approved.”

“This is an outrageous and totally unnecessary scandal that severely hurts Israel in the eyes of the Christian world,” Eyal Betzer, head of the Jezreel Valley Regional Council, said.

The Feast of the Transfiguration is a Christian celebration that commemorates the Transfiguration of Jesus Christ, an event where Jesus is believed by many Christians to have revealed his divine glory to his disciples Peter, James and John.

While the New Testament does not state specifically where the Transfiguration took place, Mount Tabor has traditionally been considered to be the site of the event.

Perhaps the particular event is more important than pinpointing with geographic accuracy where it happened. What’s more, even if the event lacks cross references and hard proof it’s more prudent to let the believers believe.

It’s certainly good for the tourist industry.

Perhaps the Mount Meron tragedy had something to do with the decision. (On 30 April 2021, during the annual pilgrimage to the tomb of Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai at Mount Meron on Lag B’Omer, 45 people were trampled to death and 150 people were injured in the crowd-crush.)

Since then, safety regulations appear to be more stringent.

The Greek Orthodox complex is not normally open to mass public events. However, in the past a night vigil was held annually in the Greek Orthodox Church on the 19th of August. Congregants and visitors claim that every year following the all-night vigil, a cloud descends on the mountain in the morning reminiscent of the etherial light that pervaded the miracle of the transfiguration. I’ve also noticed white clouds descending on just about all the hills around us, even on ‘Eli’s Lookout’ on early summer mornings.

From the 4th century onward, a succession of chapels and churches were built on Mt. Tabor. All religious buildings on the mountain were destroyed when the Mamluk Sultan Baybars came to power in 1263. For 400 years the mountain remained uninhabited until the Franciscans were permitted to settle there. The monks and pilgrims would climb 4300 steps to reach the summit but today there is a winding road that leads to the summit and to both Churches of the Transfiguration, Greek Orthodox and Franciscan.

 The Catholic church is part of a Franciscan monastery complex and was completed in 1924, designed by the renowned Italian architect Antonio Barluzzi. It was built on the ruins of an ancient 4th–6th-century Byzantine church and a 12th-century church of the Crusader Kingdom period. In the upper part of the church there is a mosaic on a gold ground representing the Transfiguration. On August 6, which is the "day of the Transfiguration" in some church calendars, the sun strikes a glass plate set into the floor so that the golden mosaic is briefly illuminated.

Most of the materials used in the construction were imported from Italy. The innovative architect wanted to create an ethereal light effect reminiscent of the transfiguration by tiling the roof of the basilica with thin slabs of semi-translucent alabaster. 

Unfortunately, at that time (1924) Barluzzi lacked a suitable sealing material to bond the alabaster. An unusually heavy downpour that winter caused the roof to leak. and the alabaster slabs had to be covered with terra cotta tiles.

 Let’s move on to a less etherial and more down to earth topic.

Galit Altstein, Bloomberg’s Tel Aviv bureau reporter described it as follows: -

“Tel Aviv boasts a 9-mile-long seashore with sprawling beaches, 4,000 Bauhaus buildings, the old port city of Jaffa, some of the world’s best restaurants, a sizzling housing market—and the greatest traffic congestion among all OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries.

     The 'A' Team again.

A light-rail system that opened on Friday is the first step toward relieving some of that congestion. A new line is running 24 kilometres with 34 stops from Tel Aviv’s southern suburbs through the city and out to its eastern suburbs, serving an area with a population of about 1.25 million. It will carry an estimated 234,000 passengers a day—mainly commuters—at an introductory ticket price of $1.45 for up to 15 kilometres.

Israel has grown rapidly for decades but largely ignored rail travel as a means of getting to and around cities. A fast train between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv opened in December 2019. About 80% to 90% of all motorized trips in Israel’s largest cities, including Tel Aviv, are taken in private vehicles. Whether you’re crossing town or just going a few blocks, you can end up sitting in seemingly interminable traffic. Forget about commuting.

‘The transportation infrastructure in the Tel Aviv metropolis is outdated and was mostly designed about 80 to 90 years ago to suit the traffic needs of the 1950s,’ says Avishai Polus, professor emeritus of civil engineering at Israel’s Technion Institute.

The new light rail—which will eventually include red, green and purple lines—cannot instantly ameliorate congestion or provide a solution for what locals call journeys at ‘scooter ride’ distances. Like most public transportation in Israel, it largely won’t operate on weekends due to objections by religious residents; it will close for Shabbat to the chagrin of more secular portions of the population. And it’s just one vein in a planned multiline system that will include metro trains, set to take the lead as Israel’s most expensive infrastructure project. The current tally: about 13.29 billion USD for the light rail and 39.88 billion USD for the metro.

It’s taken more than 25 years to get here. The government enterprise charged with overseeing the project, was established in 1997, the year after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first came into power. The original completion date for the red line was supposed to be 2003.

But it was in 2006 that the country hired MTS—a consortium of five companies, including Africa Israel Investments Ltd. and Siemens AG, that then failed to secure financing. MTS blamed the financial crisis, but an arbitrator said banks found the group’s unrealistic cost estimates unreliable.

After the project was nationalized and handed over to NTA (Metropolitan Mass Transport System), a launch date was set for 2017. Construction started in 2015, and the opening was again pushed back to 2021. Enter Covid-19, a mass management resignation and a further delay. Last-minute safety issues later postponed the launch date to 2023.

A recent report from the state comptroller noted that a similar light metro project in Copenhagen took just 10 years to complete, from end to end.

The economic toll on local companies during all this has been significant. Businesses in the construction path lost revenue, but many weren’t eligible for compensation. Only businesses in Tel Aviv were given relief, although as many as 11 additional municipalities are involved in the project, the comptroller’s report said.

Some residents feel as if they live amid never-ending disruptions on their doorstep, making an already tough commute even more difficult. Several major streets in the downtown area have been closed in whole or in part. Meanwhile, the cost of living keeps rising; Tel Aviv was named the world’s most expensive city in 2021 by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

On the upside—at least, for owners and landlords—real estate values have increased along the line. Still, industry leaders say the market hasn’t fully priced in the project because so many people lost confidence that it would be completed. And nobody wants to live or work for so long in a construction zone.

“You can see first buds in office spaces like ToHa on Yigal Alon Street, where rent is 30% higher due to its proximity to a train station—and in the future, also a light rail station,” says Erez Cohen, former chairman of Israel’s real estate association.

He estimates that in the already ultra-hot Tel Aviv real estate scene, whose housing prices have soared to 75,000 shekels per square meter in the city centre, property values near the light rail will rise an additional 15% to 20% for commercial space and 10% to 15% for residential space.

The light rail system will also have a green line, scheduled for 2028, that will run partially underground. French rail giant Alstom SA and Israel’s Electra Real Estate Ltd. won a bid to plan, build and maintain the line.

The metro project, slated to open partially in 2034, is planned to have three lines running for 150 kilometres, with 109 stations Purple line construction, which started in 2018 and is supposed to start running in 2026, will take 48% longer than the average construction time for similar projects in other countries, the comptroller’s report said. Israel’s Shapir Engineering and Industry Ltd. and Spain’s CAF have won a bid to plan, build and maintain the line and have already secured financing of 4 billion shekels from a banking consortium led by HSBC. The line’s cost of 11.2 billion shekels ($3 billion) is 28% more expensive than similar projects abroad.

In the interim, Israel’s population is expected to continue to boom at a rate of about 2% annually.

“The situation will get worse before it gets better, but there is hope for improvement in the distant future,” says Polus, stressing that the complexity of the metro project requiring years of rigorous work needs the government to declare it a top priority. This is far from being the case.

Winners of the bidding process to plan and oversee the full metro project are expected to be announced soon. The initial 1,000 workers are expected to start in early 2024. Many hope they can rescue a city known as an international high-tech capital by day and a bustling hotspot by night—yet trapped in traffic and struggling to create modern infrastructure for a higher quality of life.

Take care.

Beni,                24th of August, 2023