Raz

We are suffering from an unprecedented and inexplicable period of neglect! For decades the news media organs have devoted disproportionate attention to Israel. We have grown to accept both compliments and complaints because we are driven by a national ego that demands attention. Three times the prophet Isaiah describes us as a "light unto the nations." His most flattering prophecy foretells "And unto your light, nations shall walk, and kings unto the brightness of your rising" (Isaiah, 60:3). The current "blackout" is hard to live with.

A lead article in the Economist supplied one explanation for this "nothing is happening" state of affairs.

" Israelis have enjoyed one of their longest spells of relative peace since their army hammered the Gaza Strip more than three years ago. Their hawkish leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, who emerged shortly, afterwards as prime minister for the second time, has been riding high. Israel’s economy, though not without the odd tremor, has boomed in comparison with those of its floundering Arab neighbours, where governments have been driven to distraction or overthrown amid the turbulence of the Arab spring.." The article goes on to warn the prime minister that the present lull won't last for ever. The Palestinians are at the end of their tether and more worrying, "The more than 350m Arabs in the region are losing faith in a two-state solution. Many Europeans put most of the blame for the present impasse on Israel. And under a second-term Mr. Obama even America may start to lose patience with an intransigent Israeli government." The paper suggests, "Mr. Netanyahu is a consummate opportunist; let him grasp this opportunity."

This week Thomas L. Friedman wrote a piece for the New York Times called "Power with Purpose." Pointing to Netanyahu's huge coalition government Friedman remarked, "There are Arab dictators who didn’t have majorities that big after rigged elections. What is unclear is whether Bibi assembled these multitudes to be better able to do nothing or be better able to do something important to secure Israel’s future."

Friedman fears Netanyahu will choose inaction "I’m keeping an open mind, but the temptation for Bibi to do nothing will be enormous. The Palestinians are divided between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and both populations are tired." Conjuring up a future historian's verdict Friedman wrote, "Netanyahu was the only Israeli leader who had the political power and he missed his moment in history." —. “Now is his moment to decide.”

If, however, Netanyahu sincerely wants to exploit this opportunity and believes he can cut a deal with the Palestinians, he won't be able to do that while he demands no preconditions. The Palestinians won’t talk as long as settlement building continues.

The author of the Economist article speculates "Had Mr. Netanyahu extended a ten-month moratorium on expanding Jewish settlements on Palestinian land back in September 2010, chunks of his coalition would have fallen away, perhaps even bringing down the government. Now, with Kadima in his fold, Mr. Netanyahu has less need to pander to the likes of Mr. Lieberman. Mr. Mofaz plainly accepts a two-state solution, even promoting his own plan, which advocates the immediate creation of a Palestinian state on 60% of the land captured by Israel during the war of 1967, as a step towards an eventual state based on the pre-war borders adjusted with land swaps."

Some analysts argue that the “power with a purpose” that Friedman wrote about has its limits. If the prime minister decides to renew the building moratorium he risks defection of some of his coalition partners. The size factor hasn’t deterred the coalition’s extreme right flank..

If the prime minister makes a sincere effort to reach an agreement with the Palestinians the true-blue right wingers might leave the government. After all they are answerable to the people who voted for them. A smaller coalition with its right flank pared off would probably be more to Netanyahu’s liking, however there is also a right flank within his own Likud party. It too could join the deserters. Of course this defection scenario is no more than conjecture.

Despite the dearth of news two attention grasping events occurred this week.

The first event occurred at the Citi Field and Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens, New York. No it wasn’t the Mets that drew a crowd of 60,000 ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews to the stadium, but a symposium to warn about the dangers of ... the Internet. An article in the New York Daily News quoted Rabbi Gershon Tannenbaum of B’nai Israel , Linden Heights in Borough Park, Brooklyn, who mentioned an ironical aspect of the mass gathering. “Word spread from the synagogues like mine, and in newspapers like the Jewish Press, where I write a regular column, and, yes, by Internet, which is a positive use of this powerful tool,” Rabbi Tannenbaum qualified his statement adding, “The Internet can destroy families, be a colossal waste of time, and at times, a useful tool”.. “The speakers at Citi Field said that if improperly used, the internet can destroy families, with gambling, pornography and other addictions,” Tannenbaum says. “But mostly, surfing the Internet is a colossal waste of precious time young people could spend working or studying. I direct Internet surfers to www.HebrewBooks.org, where anyone can download 50,000 scholarly Hebrew books free, an astounding library at your fingertips. God created the Internet just for this site.”

As of 2011, more than 2.2 billion people – nearly a third of our planet’s population — use the services of the Internet.

Israel’s sizeable Haredi community was well represented at the Queens stadium gathering. The ongoing Internet debate in Israel concerns both Haredi and Orthodox Zionist leaders.

The 250 km stretch of border from Eilat to where it convergences with the Gaza Strip periphery fence, was until recently as porous as a sieve.. The impetus for the construction of an effective, cost efficient barrier along our border with Egypt came after a Palestinian terrorist attack launched from Sinai last year. Although the attack was an isolated incident it was considered the harbinger of more attacks of this kind. In addition the problem of mass infiltration of Africans seeking work and asylum in Israel heightened the need to seal off this vulnerable length of border. Probably more than 60,000 Africans have entered the country via the Sinai route. They are often referred to as Sudanese despite the fact that most of them come from Eritrea. Many of them claim to be asylum seekers, however it’s clear working in Israel is their main objective. In their quest for work they tend to move to large population centres. The problem is particularly acute in the poorer neglected area adjacent to Tel Aviv’s old deserted bus terminal. Since it is forbidden by law to employ illegal residents most of them remain jobless, homeless and desperate. The incidence of crime has increased in this particular neighbourhood causing considerable anger and resentment among Israelis living nearby. This is not a municipal problem; the government should be dealing with it. Once again it’s easier to blame previous governments for letting the problem get out of hand. Political opportunists are ever ready to propose popular cure-all solutions. Minister of Internal Affairs Eli Yishai wants to lock them all up in internment camps. He believes his “Gulags” (I purposely avoid using the name of another kind of camp that comes to mind) will deter future job seekers. The Police Commissioner suggested finding them jobs in agriculture and was censured. Eli Yishai has restricted the number of legal foreign workers coming into the country. As a result many farmers are short of temporary workers.

The working class HaTikva neighbourhood isn’t far from the old bus terminal. HaTikva residents gathered this week to protest the government’s inability to deal with the influx of illegal African job seekers. At first about a thousand protesters assembled in an orderly manner. Then the politicians arrived - two Likud party members, Danny Denon and Miri Regev . Denon a one time diplomat used a lot of undiplomatic language. Former IDF spokeswoman Brigadier-General (Res) Miri Regev has a way with words. I don’t know if the Likud Knesset members “comforting language” caused the disgruntled crowd to turn into an uncontrollable mob determined to vent their wrath on anyone and anything related to African job seekers. Fortunately the police were well prepared and succeeded in stopping the protesters in time. A few shop windows were smashed and one African was messed up a bit.

Cabinet ministers, Knesset members and other people demanding that we send them back to Africa don’t realise that it is easier said than done.

In a few months the fence will be completed and an additional fence along part of the border with Jordan will be erected to prevent further infiltration.

A suggested gradual repatriation programme seems to be the best course of action.

Without a doubt the event of the week was the Bat Mitzvah of our grand-niece Raz Oz at Tel Adashim in the Jezreel Valley.

Raz is our niece Ma’ayan and her husband Niv’s youngest daughter. Her Bat Mitzvah party celebrated in a corner of the field behind the family home was a very laid-back affair with plenty of rustic trappings. Giant bales of straw demarcated the area where the guests gathered, dined and watched the entertainment provided by Raz, her family and friends. And Raz, what can I say! She has oodles of unaffected charm and exuberance.

Permit me a lit nepotism.

This weekend we are celebrating Shavuot. I’ll write about that next week.

Beni 25^th of May, 2012.

Haredim

The broadcasting of Channel 10 TV's series " Haredim" was timed to a T. The three episode presentation coincided with a public and political debate about fair and equal sharing of the defence burden, namely, conscription for all.

"Hiddush", a local NGO, officially titled - Freedom of Religion for Israel, Inc, is very much a part of this debate. Hiddush president, Rabbi Uri Regev: summed up the situation as follows, “The Israeli public is sick and tired of the politically motivated mass exemption of yeshiva students from sharing in the civic burden of defence of the country” Obviously Rabbi Regev doesn't pitch his tent with the Haredim. Let's pause a moment to examine that definitive title given to a broad swath of Orthodox Jews. It's used to describe the most conservative form of Orthodox Judaism, often referred to by outsiders as ultra-Orthodox. Haredi Jews, like other Orthodox Jews, consider their belief system and religious practices to extend in an unbroken chain back to Moses and the giving of the Torah on Mount Sinai. As a result, they regard Non-Orthodox, and to an extent Modern Orthodox, streams of Judaism to be deviations from authentic Judaism.

Many people prefer to call them Haredim instead of ultra-Orthodox. However, the term Haredim derived from a phrase in Isaiah 66:5: "Hear the word of the Lord, you who tremble at His word" (Also in Ezra10:3), when freely translated as "God-fearing" is problematic. It could be applied to all religiously observant Jews. Arguably it can be stretched to include occasional synagogue goers, even the very 'lite' type. So let's stick to the term Haredim.

By and large the Haredim are a marginal group living in their self- imposed ghetto-like communities? Counting them is not easy, mainly because they shy from cooperating with state institutions. Notwithstanding the difficulties in accessing the number of Haredim it's estimated that they comprise one-tenth of Israel’s 7.8 million citizens

Haredi Judaism is not an institutionally cohesive or homogeneous group, but comprises a diversity of spiritual and cultural orientations, generally divided into a broad range of Hasidic factions, Lithuanian Jews with strong Yeshiva affinities, streams from Eastern Europe, and Oriental Sephardic Haredim.

At this juncture it’s important to stress that the Haredim don’t have a monopoly on Jewish religious observance. Their dress code certainly sets them apart, but many less identifiable religious Jews are equally observant.

I realise that much of the content of this newsletter is common knowledge. I mention it here because it helps put the conscription debate in the proper context.

One researcher claims that Israeli Haredi males probably spend more time in formal study than any other group anywhere in the world. However, this dedication to Torah study takes precedence over work.

By contrast, our sages of old emphasised the value of study and work and not just study alone. In addition to studying Torah they were artisans and plied a variety of trades.

Our current conscription imbroglio has its origins in an arrangement made by Ben Gurion to accommodate 400 yeshiva students. That was in 1948 and the arrangement was formalised by the Tal Law in 1999, which was intended to provide a legislated framework for the long standing practice of exempting yeshiva students from military service. At the same time its goal was to encourage greater participation in both military and civil service. The law failed to achieve its service objectives. Ironically, the exemptions granted by the law requiring full-time yeshiva study have contributed to a greater degree of poverty in the Haredi sector. About 60 percent of Haredi men are unemployed. Some women work, but one income does not go far in families with an average of more than six children.

The combination of high birth rates, poverty and an inflexible Haredi school system that avoids teaching a broad curriculum exacerbates the community’s already difficult circumstances. Haredi youth graduate high school with few skills and professional qualifications. As a result the community has become increasingly dependent on state financial support.

The Haredi community in Israel has adopted a policy of cultural dissociation, but at the same time, it has struggled to remain politically active, perceiving itself as the true protector of the country's Jewish nature. This dichotomy between the mainstream Israeli society and the Haredi community can be traced back to the late nineteenth-early twentieth century, with the rise of Zionism The vast majority of Haredi Jews rejected Zionism for a number of reasons. Chief among these was the claim that Jewish political independence could only be obtained through Divine intervention, with the coming of the Messiah. Any attempt to force history was seen as an open rebellion against Judaism.

Over eight hundred years ago Maimonides wrote, “I believe with complete faith in the coming of the Messiah, and even though he may tarry, nevertheless I wait every day hoping he will come." Israeli rock star Shalom Hanoch isn't so patient. In his 1985 hit “Waiting for the Messiah." He complains "The Messiah hasn't come, he hasn't called." In one verse he is more despondent and concludes, "The Messiah won't come."

Portraying the Haredim as a sector that is completely introspective is misleading and distorts the truth. I certainly didn’t intend to do so.

I want to tip the scales a bit by mentioning two voluntary organisations initiated by Haredi Jews and largely run by them. Yad Sarah is the largest national volunteer organisation in Israel. It is operated by more than 6,000 volunteers and employs a salaried staff of 150 men and women. The organisation serves over 350,000 needy people each year. In addition it lends over 244,000 pieces of medical and rehabilitative home-care equipment annually, enabling sick, disabled, elderly and recuperating patients to live at home. This saves Israel's economy an estimated $320 million in hospital fees and long-term care costs each year.^. This loan service is provided free.

.The organisation serves Jews, Christians, Muslims and Druze, as well as tourists with disabilities. Yad Sarah is a recipient of the Israel Prize and has been awarded advisory status to the United Nations Economic and Social Council.

Yad Sarah raises 92% of its operating budget from donations. The organisation does not receive any government assistance.

Zaka is a Hebrew acronym meaning “Disaster Victim Identification” it is comprised of a series of voluntary community emergency response teams in Israel, each operating in a police district. The organisation is officially recognised by the government. Members of ZAKA, most of whom are Orthodox Jews, assist ambulance crews, aid in the identification of the victims of terrorism, road accidents and other disasters, and where necessary gather body parts for proper burial. They also provide first aid and rescue services, and help with the search for missing persons and participate in international rescue and recovery operations.

The Haredi community is a multi-faceted entity. It is characterised more by its diversity than a common purpose. Nevertheless, on the matter of military service it has managed to close ranks. The legal precedent that fixed deferring military service that enabled young men enrolled in Haredi yeshiva academies to complete their studies before their conscription in the IDF.

Haredi Jews maintain that the Torah study when practised by great Torah scholars or their disciples is crucial in defending the state of Israel and its people, equivalent to an additional "praying division" of the Israeli army. (I doubt if IDF C in C Benny Gantz is depending on this extra force.) In practice, the arrangement provides a legal route whereby Haredi Rabbis and their disciples can either enroll for a shortened service period (4 months), or be exempted altogether from compulsory military service.

On February 21, 2012, Israel's High Court of Justice ruled the Tal Law unconstitutional. Now the government is obliged to introduce new legislation or cease to treat the Haredi sector as privileged group.

While Israel’s Druze and Circassian minorities are conscripted like the Jewish majority, the Arab minority, both Christian and Muslim, is not required to serve in the IDF. Members of some Bedouin communities volunteer for service in the army. It has been suggested that in lieu of military service the Arab minorities be conscripted to perform community services.

We celebrate Independence Day according to the Hebrew calendar. However, Israel's declaration of independence was issued on the 14^th of May, 1948, a date regarded by the Palestinians as the date marking their great national tragedy the Naqba.

This year Nakba Day events were relatively quiet. Exceptions were at a few road blocks near crossing points in the West Bank. In our neck of the woods the day was uneventful. There were quiet protests in Nazareth and a gathering at Lajun, the ruins of an Arab village near Kibbutz Megiddo.

I’m told the gathering was more like a “Farmers Market” with stalls stacked with goods for sale and light refreshments, than a demonstration.

Lajun was “vacated” during the War of Independence. The origin of the name can be traced back to a Roman army camp built at the site during the Bar Kochba revolt. The sixth legion known as Legio sexta Ferrata (Sixth Ironclad Legion) was stationed there. With the passage of time the name was corrupted to Lajun.

Former residents of Lajun still conduct a kind of annual pilgrimage to its ruins and preserve the name for later generations born after the village was destroyed - though few remember the name's Roman origin.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 17^th of May, 2012.

The Reunion

Reunions are sad-happy occasions reminding you that no one is spared the ravages of time.

The identity tag displayed on your chest further attests the fact that you are not instantly recognisable. Nonetheless, despite these fears and trepidations the get-together is usually a joyous occasion.

Last Friday I was my wife’s consort at her class reunion held here at Ein Harod.

Her classmates, children from Ein Harod, and other communities in the eastern Jezreel Valley had gathered to celebrate their collective seventieth birthday.

The event began at the top of the hill on a patch of lawn by “Eli’s Lookout,”

a vantage point commanding a magnificent view of the valley

My wife press-ganged me into service as the reunion’s photographer.

After the handshakes, cheek kisses and a fair amount of back slapping followed by coffee and cake, we all walked down to the kibbutz clubhouse where we mingled more and reminisced recalling childhood memories. I’ve heard the anecdotes so many times I almost feel as if I lived them.

Later we ate dinner sang the old familiar songs and saw a revamped black and white movie of their schooldays. The reunion was topped off by cultural renditions that were a trifle too long. Someone said “We must do this more often,” and I added an unspoken thought “Preferably before we are all in geriatric care facilities.”

Tuesday night we went to bed assured that the nation would be going to the polls early in September. The first reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset ahead of the anticipated elections was approved by an unprecedented majority. Wednesday morning we woke to discover that all is fair in love, war and politics. The prime minister had formed an alliance with the leader of the opposition Kadima party to form a national unity government.

At work our breakfast table parliament had much to say about the perfidious attributes of some of our politicians. I want to disregard the knee-jerk reactions of some of my breakfast table comrades and refer to better qualified opinions..

The Christian Science Monitor wrote, “The deal makes for a massive 94 -member coalition, one that allows Netanyahu to significantly improve political mobility and support for major potential domestic and international moves.

Mutual demands by both sides enabling the mega-coalition include tackling a laundry list of issues, among them mandatory military service for religious seminary students, changing the electoral system, far-reaching socioeconomic reforms, and possible changes in settlement activity and relations with the Palestinian National Authority. Mofaz had also been reportedly committed to supporting the government's policies until its term ends in late 2013.

Internationally, local political observers speculated that Netanyahu may also be seeking to strengthen his coalition ahead of a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, if P5+1 talks with Teheran do not curb their fuel enrichment program.”

The Washington Post also highlighted the likelihood of a military strike against Iran, “The agreement triggered a new round of speculation about the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel deems an existential threat. Some commentators said the deal meant that Netanyahu had cleared his calendar to prepare for war. Others said the sudden ascent of Mofaz, a former military chief and defense minister who has expressed opposition to a unilateral Israeli attack, made war less likely.” The paper’s Jerusalem correspondents forgot to mention that Mofaz recently proclaimed he would "never" serve under Netanyahu and repeatedly called the prime minister a liar. Justifying the new alliance Likud and Kadima Knesset members said it is a form of “realpolitik” the nation needs. Whatever they call it the deal stinks.

So far the public reaction has been very subdued. I’m surprised there’s no expression of public outrage or move to punish these fickle politicians.

In the short term Netanyahu stands to profit from the new coalition. The real test will be at the elections next year. Mofaz has gained a new lease of political life. Kadima was well on the way to political extinction.

The other coalition partners are understandably peeved by the new broad unity government. Netanyahu can now afford to ignore their threats.

The Economist speculated that," If Likud and Kadima proceed with the ambitious reforms they have agreed to, many of these smaller parties may flounce out of the government in disgust." The paper also claimed, "Observers are doubtful whether a real sea-change will take place in Israel's policy towards the Palestinians. But Mr Netanyahu can no longer claim he is hamstrung by his rightist-religious coalition partners."…Other analysts here reminded their readers that broad national unity governments tend to be paralysed by conflicting interests.

Paralysed or not the Economist conjectured " Where the new government's programme of reforms may dramatically change things in Israel is in its first provision: legislating a new and fairer arrangement for universal national service. In other words, an end to the exemption of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) young men from army service. This has been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and is the subject of growing public anger.

A new law, which the two parties pledge to pass by August, would require Israeli Arabs to do national service too, but in a civilian context rather than in the army. Success on this front would mean not just social justice (and popularity for Messrs Netanyahu and Mofaz) but also a critical surge in the size of Israel's labour force. IMF economists have pointed to haredi male non-productivity as a serious drag on the country's economy.

The new government will have its hands full pushing it through and will find it tough, therefore, to pursue another potentially momentous reform: a radical change of the electoral system. The purpose, the two parties proclaim, would be to shore up stability and enable elected governments to serve out their terms without constantly facing coalition pressures. In practice, this means strengthening large parties at the expense of smaller ones–a prospect which Israel’s political minnows are certain to oppose."

The new guy on the block Yair Lapid who launched his “There’s a Future” party hoping to contest the elections "penciled- in" for this coming September, has a problem. Admittedly he thanked Mofaz for vacating the centre segment of the Israeli political spectrum; however Lapid is not really happy about the new unity government. He was preparing for a short sprint to the September elections, now he has to maintain a political momentum for the next fifteen months. I’m not sure he can do it.

The New York Times' Jerusalem desk drew on Israeli sources to explain why Netanyahu made his move now,

"Some analysts have noted that the deal emerged barely a week after the death of Mr. Netanyahu’s 102-year-old father, a scholar and hawkish Zionist whom many here thought he had been loath to offend with compromises on settlements and other issues.

Several people close to the prime minister gave their positive assessment, saying the new coalition, whose largest bloc is Kadima’s 28 seats, is better aligned with Mr. Netanyahu’s personal politics than the right-leaning one he had led since his election in 2009. “

.

Alex Zabezhinsky chief economist at DS Apex one of Israel’s leading investment houses said, “The ballooning budget deficit requires ‘root canal work’. Spending on laws and programs approved by the agreement, such as salary agreements and the Trajtenberg Committee's recommendations, have resulted in breaching the budget for both this year and subsequent years. This necessitates setting new and clear priorities, and deciding where to invest and what to forego. Such decisions are impossible with the current coalition, and possibly also impossible to make after the elections. By striking a deal with Kadima, it will be possible to cut budgets affecting the special interests of the Likud's small coalition partners and to focus on measures that are better for the economy as a whole.”

David Makovsky called the Netanyahu - Mofaz covenant “A marriage of Convenience.” In an article he published in the Washington Institute’s Policy Watch, he wrote, “On a purely political level, the deal was clearly done to strengthen both Netanyahu and Mofaz. Under its terms, the very risk-averse Netanyahu will likely remain in power for another year-and-a-half before facing a vote. And while he has not said so publicly, he is acutely aware that his previous coalition's dependence on right-wing parties hurt both his and Israel's image. He is also mindful of the fact that unity governments tend to be popular domestically.

The deal offers an opportunity for a center-right alliance (and greater independence and maneuverability for Netanyahu) that was unlikely to present itself after early elections. Although polls had put the prime minister safely ahead of Kadima before the announcement, he has long viewed Mofaz as a formidable opponent who could eat away at the Likud Party's Sephardic populist base. As a Sephardic former chief of staff who has championed economic populism, Mofaz casts an image of political moderation that poses a threat to Netanyahu, who prefers to bring him inside the tent. The prime minister also hopes that a unity government will allow him to openly absorb at least some of Kadima's more hawkish members after the next election, since the party originated in 2005 as a breakaway from Likud, which opposed Ariel Sharon's Gaza disengagement at the time.”

Yesterday was Lag B’omer . Everything about this festival is controversial. From the way it is celebrated at the grave of Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai at Mount Meron to Bar Kochba himself the leader of the second or third (depending how you count them) revolt against the Romans. Some people hail him as a hero. Rabbi Akiva thought he might be the Messiah. Some of his contemporaries and later rabbinical leaders decried the national tragedy he brought upon the Jewish people. Ironically, letters he wrote were found by archaeologists, yet there is a dearth of information about the revolt itself. Just the same, children love bonfires so they award Lag B’omer a top rating.

I began this missive with an account of my wife’s class reunion and went on to describe the unholy Netanyahu – Mofaz union.

I have attached photos of both events.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 10^th of May, 2012.

The men at the helm

There was a time when the directors of the Mossad and the General Security Service were not referred to by name. Anonymity was a prerequisite demanded of both rank and file operatives and the directors of these security services. Today the field operatives still remain nameless, but their commanders, the heads of the Mossad, GSS and MI (Military Intelligence) are known by face and name. Once considered a commitment to lifelong anonymity in Israeli society, today high ranking members of these intelligence organisations, especially the directors, are considered good candidates for managerial positions in the business community and often in politics too. This process follows a trend started by retired IDF top brass. Moshe Dayan, Ariel Sharon, and Yitzhak Rabin were the first to enter the political arena. In the GSS and the foreign intelligence Mossad service, the trend showed up much later (during the mid-1990s), even though Isser Harel (who served as head of both services) and Meir Amit of the Mossad were both elected to the Knesset much earlier. The GSS, General Security Service, sometimes defined as Israel’s domestic intelligence agency is widely known by the acronym Shabak or simply abbreviated to the first two letters – Shin Bet. This lengthy preamble serves to introduce a heated debate concerning uncomplimentary comments made by former Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin at a public meeting last Friday..

Since retiring from the service, Diskin has remained very much “out of sight and out of mind.” Consequently, when he criticised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak his remarks caused considerable speculation. " Yuval Diskin said the prime minister,Binyamin Netanyahu, and defence minister, Ehud Barak – the principal advocates of military action against Iran's nuclear programme – were unfit to lead the country and could not be trusted to conduct a war. The "messianic" pair were misleading the public on the merits of an attack. ‘I've seen them from up close. They are not messiahs, either of them, and they are not people whom I, on a personal level, trust to lead the state of Israel into an event of that scale. They are not the people whom I would truly want to be at the helm when we set out on an endeavour of that sort,’”

In an article published in the Huffington Post Diskin's comments were interpreted in the context of similar remarks made by other security colleagues. “There’s a rift growing between the hawkish Netanyahu government and the security establishment over the question of a strike – and Netanyahu’s allies quickly rushed to his defense.

In Israel, security figures carry clout well into retirement. Although they frequently pursue political careers, Diskin had been seen as relatively apolitical, perhaps lending his words even greater weight.

Diskin said it was possible that "one of the results of an Israel attack on Iran could be a dramatic acceleration of the Iran program. ... They will have legitimacy to do it more quickly and in a shorter timeframe."

Several members of Netanyahu's coalition issued statements questioning Diskin's motives and suggesting that in effect he had allied himself with Israel's dovish opposition.

The prime minister's office called the former Shin Bet chief's remarks 'irresponsible,' while Barak's office accused Diskin of 'acting in a petty and irresponsible way based on personal frustration' and 'damaging the tradition of generations of Shin Bet leaders.'

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman also took a swipe at Diskin.

'If you do not trust the prime minister and the defense minister, you should have resigned and not waited for the end of your term,' he said.

Further complicating the picture is the widely held suspicion that Israel's threats may actually amount to a bluff of historic proportion which has if anything been effective in compelling the world to boycott Iranian oil and isolate its central bank. From that perspective, criticism such as Diskin's, based on a literal approach, could be construed as simplistic and self-defeating."

Israeli security directors have criticised the government on a number of policy matters: whether sanctions will make a strike unnecessary, whether a strike will be militarily effective, and whether Israel should strike unilaterally if it cannot gain American approval.

Diskin's speech – in which he also attacked the government for not actively pursuing peace with the Palestinians – came days after IDF C in C, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, also seemed to disagree with the country's leadership on the likelihood that Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon.

Gantz told Associated Press this week that Iran is seeking to develop its "military nuclear capability," but that the Islamic Republic would ultimately bow to international pressure and decide against building a weapon. The key to that pressure, he said, were sanctions and the threat of a military strike.

Diskin's remarks certainly weren't a ground-breaking critical appraisal. Last summer Meir Dagan, retired director of the Mossad called a strike against Iran's nuclear programme "stupid." Dagan, said an effective attack on Iran would be difficult because Iranian nuclear facilities are scattered and mobile

Other senior figures with security backgrounds have questioned whether Israel should act alone, as Netanyahu insists the country has a right to do.

An opinion poll conducted by the Dahaf agency recently, indicates that public opinion isn’t overly enthusiastic about attacking Iran alone. The survey, conducted by the Israeli polling agency for the University of Maryland, said 81 percent of Israelis oppose a solo attack on Iran. At the same time, it said two-thirds of Israelis would support military action if coordinated with Washington..

An attack on Iran would likely cause oil prices to skyrocket at a time when the global economy is already struggling – risking a new recession for which Israel would absorb much if not most of the blame. Some also fear that Iran might attack American targets in response to any Israeli strike – a scenario that could directly influence the outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election.

According to a report published in the New York Times this week American officials and non-aligned analysts believe that the chances of a military conflict over the Iranian nuclear programme have significantly decreased..

Some observers argue that Dagan’s animus against Netanyahu and Barak stems from the fact that his tenure in the Mossad was not extended. A similar opinion is proffered to explain Diskin's critical remarks. They claim he was passed over to replace Dagan as director of the Mossad.

I don't know if there is any truth in these claims. If I'm not mistaken Dagan retired after eight years as director of the Mossad. At the time there were rumours that he might be asked to extend his tenure.

Yuval Diskin directed the Shin Bet for six years. There were also rumours that he might be asked to succeed Dagan.

Other observers familiar with the intelligence community believe the criticism levelled at the current political leadership is motivated by a serious concerns and is not at all vindictive .

The prime minister's decision to call for early parliamentary elections can in no way be construed to be influenced by the Diskin-Dagan episode.

A few months ago political observers reasoned that the Likud led coalition government would run its full term. Now Netanyahu thinks an early date for the elections is more advantageous . It's reasonable to suppose that elections will be held early in September. However, it’s difficult to predict what the outcome of these elections will be. Just the same, I’ll hazard a guess and say that Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to win enough seats to form another coalition government. Ehud Barak's breakaway faction is not expected to win even one seat in the Knesset. The Kadima centrist party now led by Shaul Mofaz will probably lose seats. The Labour party with Shelly Yachimovich at the helm is expected to make gains. The ultra-Orthodox Shas party is facing a leadership crisis. The party's former leader Arieh Deri announced his return to politics last month. Twelve years ago Deri was sentenced to three years in prison for bribery. Now, after the required rehabilitation period he plans to return topolitics.. The charismatic Arieh Deri knows he won't be asked to lead Shas, so it's quite likely that he will form a new party competing with Shas for the same segment of the religious vote Another centrist party will be contesting these elections. Journalist and T.V showman Yair Lapid hopes to convince mainly middle class voters to support him.

The Economist made a point that most Israeli political analysts preferred not to mention this week, certainly not while the prime minister is in mourning. Earlier this week Mr Netanyahu’s father, Ben-Zion Netanyahu died at the age of 102. Professor Netanyahu a rigidly right-wing ideologist and distinguished historian had a profound influence on his son. His demise has rekindled hopes on the left—and fears on the right—of a new pragmatism in the son. “Mr Netanyahu himself has always snorted at suggestions that he was cowed or inhibited by his father’s ideological severity.” said the Economist.

If he chose to do so Netanyahu might be able to do without the two ultra-Orthodox parties in his current coalition. Exploring another option the Economist speculated, “Or he could dispense with Yisrael Beitenu, the mainly Russian immigrant party led by Avigdor Lieberman, the ultranationalist foreign minister, who has long been under investigation over his businesses; on April 30th the attorney-general said he would decide ‘within a few weeks’ whether to prosecute him.

The re-emergence of the social-justice protest expected soon is another factor that caused him to opt for early elections. High on the list of demands from the social-justice movement is an end to the blanket exemption from military service for the ultra-Orthodox. The Supreme Court has ruled it unconstitutional. If Mr Netanyahu fails to back the exemption, he may lose the support of the ultra-Orthodox. If he does not, he could lose other potential partners and endanger his own popularity.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 3^rd of May, 2012.