Politics and Pyrotechnics

International affairs expert Dominique Moisi has difficulty explaining Israel's predicament, "What is wrong with Israel?" he asks, "In recent years, the Jewish state seems to have done more than all of its combined enemies to delegitimise itself in the eyes of the world. Its leaders’ apparent inability to think in strategic terms, and their indifference to the tribunal of global public opinion, is resulting in growing frustration among its citizens and, what may be more dangerous, deepening international isolation.                                           Where should one look for an explanation for this tragic evolution? Was it simply inevitable for a people who, deprived of a state for more than 2,000 years, may have lost the ability to act collectively in a 'raison d’état' manner?" Part of the problem is our dysfunctional system of government.   If Professor Moisi is right, maybe we will have an opportunity to correct matters in the forthcoming Knesset elections..   Many people claim that Israel's founding fathers committed the original sin when they created an unworkable system of government. The fragmentation of the Israeli political system based on a highly representative proportional parliamentarian structure is the root cause of nearly all our political ills. The Israeli political system, through its complex mechanisms of rigged party selection and absolute proportionality, condemns the country to weak coalition governments and escalating corruption. There is an urgent need to reform the system. One critic (I can't recall his name) complained “Government leaders cannot afford to spend 90% of their time thinking about how to survive politically at a time when the state’s right to exist is being challenged."

Well let’s vote to change the system. The recent amalgamation of the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu might just herald in a change in the electoral system.  On the other hand It might just herald in a lot of things we don't want.  Oscar Wilde's said it better, "There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it." The problem is we probably won't evict the Likud led coalition.

Although I quote them a lot I don't place my trust in political analysts. A case in point is a piece  Brent E. Sasley published in the Huffington Post  referring to  the bombshell news  that  the dysfunctional nature of Israel's political system allowed Bibi to pull off what is clearly a stroke of genius. He was referring to the short-lived (70 days) coalition of the Likud and Kadima parties this summer. It turned out to be more like an apoplectic seizure than a stroke of genius. Who knows, maybe the prime minister has got it right this time.

I'm rambling; I really wanted to write about the attack on the munitions factory in Sudan, which according to foreign sources was carried out by the Israel Air Force. Permit me to ramble on a bit about our local politics before I write about what our boys allegedly did in Khartoum.

Usually I try to avoid writing about our interminable political wranglings. However, with the Knesset elections looming ahead I can’t ignore them.

“Israel’s majority Jewish sector has shifted its political allegiance sharply to the right. “Claimed  journalist Benjamin Pogrund in an article he posted in the Guardian recently.  Three weeks ago I quoted from an assessment made by Dan Ephron in Newsweek/Daily Beast hailing the           unbeatable Bibi. Now it would seem that the new merger has really made Bibi unbeatable.         Mark Weiss The Irish Times' correspondent in Jerusalem also thinks the Israeli public has         been shifting steadily to the right. According to a recent survey quoted by Weiss more than        two-thirds of the respondents said they would oppose suffrage for West Bank Palestinians if     Israel annexed the West Bank. Seventy-four per cent said they supported a system of                   segregated roads  for Israelis and Palestinians in that region.  Weiss says that the fact that      the Israeli news media largely ignored the survey is further proof of the right-wing trend.             Unfortunately he omitted to mention if the opinions expressed were from a broad cross section of the public or from West Bank residents only.     On the other hand, Benjamin Pogrund            quoting another survey said that the extent of the hostility expressed by Israeli Jews towards the country's Arab citizens shocked many people: 42% of the respondents said they don't want their children in the same school class with Arab children and 42% don't want to live in the same   building with Arabs. However, a closer perusal of the survey's findings shows that the secular    respondents, who form the majority of the country's Jewish population, expressed different        opinions: 73% did not object to having Arabs in their children's school, and 68% would live in   an apartment building alongside Arabs. Pogrund maintains that although Israel has moved to    the right, it is not an apartheid state. Furthermore, he stresses that, "The findings are                   remarkably positive views in light of the effect of the Palestinian suicide bombings during the   Second Intifada in driving many Israeli Jews to the right, plus the continuing threats to Israel's    existence by Iran and Palestinian militants and their supporters in the world. The firing of rockets and mortars at southern Israel from the Gaza Strip by Hamas and others adds to antipathy towards Palestinians." Referring to the survey quoted in the Irish Times Pogrund says, "The        survey's handling of Jewish views about the West Bank, based on a hypothetical annexation by Israel, raises questions about the way it was conducted and how the results were presented to  the public: 69% of Israeli Jews, according to the survey, would oppose giving the West Bank's 2.5 million Palestinians the vote inside Israel. The summary of the survey is headlined: "In case of annexation, most Jews will support apartheid."                                                                                The initial response to the Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu merger seemed to affirm the claim that the      two parties together would gain more seats in the upcoming elections than each party would   gain separately. I think it would be wise to wait till the voters have assimilated the full                   significance of the merger..                                                                                                                  Netanyahu could encounter problems with some Likud members who have already opposed     the merger for ideological reasons. Lower ranked Likud members fear the merger will cost them their seats in the Knesset.    There are rumours that Minister of Communications Moshe         Kahlon in the outgoing government will form a new party. On the downside of the rightwing          union some supporters are not enthusiastic about the move. Lieberman’s solid base of               immigrants from the former Soviet Union isn’t really rock solid. Some might defect to other parties championing the social justice cause. Likewise Likud supporters  fearing Lieberman’s          strong  aversion to the religious parties might opt to vote for Shas, especially now that the          charismatic Arieh Deri has returned.                                                                                                      Predicting that the merger would strengthen Netanyahu's hand with regard to a possible Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear programme,  Aluf Benn, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz, wrote: "With Lieberman as second in command and heir to the throne, and his supporters in    prominent spots on the joint ticket, Likud will become a radical rightwing party, aggressive and xenophobic, that revels in Israel's isolation and sees the Arab community as a domestic enemy and a danger to the state."                                                                                                                    Across the divide in the opposition ranks there appears to be little inclination to adopt the motto " United we stand, divided we fall,"   or alternatively,  "A house divided against itself cannot       stand"  Mark 3:25.                                                                                                                                  Everyone is waiting to see if Ehud Olmert and Tzippi  Livni will return to the political arena. It’s   not beyond reason to speculate that Kadima with Livni and Olmert aligned with Yair Lapid’s      Yesh Atid (There’s a Future) party could attract centre party voters. Several permutations based on the centre parties alone or together with Labour have been suggested. So far they are no  more than fantasies. Both the centre parties and Labour have been busy parading their new     acquisitions. In the past valued acquisitions were retired IDF generals and former security forces directors. Now social justice leaders and journalists are on display. Political analysts have been debating if Labour party chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich has been acting more strategically than other Israeli politicians. She’s been laser-focused on the economy, arguing that Likud and the right are destroying the country with their unbridled capitalism, and all but ignored foreign policy and the peace process on the basis that Israelis express more concern with domestic issues in opinion polls, are content with the status quo vis-à-vis the Palestinians, and feel relatively    secure.  She has been bringing a range of individuals into the party. Mostly younger figures       publicly interested in social justice, a crusading journalist and a social worker, who helps high   school dropouts.                                                                                                                                       My description of the array of forces before the battle (the elections) has probably been too     detailed. If you are unfamiliar with the parties and the personalities' "Google  them" for               clarification. The elections are more than eighty days away. "Time yet for a hundred indecisions, and for a hundred visions and revisions…"

Let's move on to the pyrotechnics  Haaretz staff  journalist Anshel Pfeffer quoted The Sunday Times in an effort to sift facts from fantasy concerning the British paper's account of the  attack on the munitions factory in Khartoum.                                                                                                    "The Sunday Times regularly reports at length on Israeli secret operations," said Pfeffer." Sunday's piece by the paper's reporters in Tel Aviv and Nairobi is based on Israeli and western 'security sources' and claims that the attack was carried out by the Israeli Air Force and includes details of the strike-force, the stages of the attack and the target. Not all the details tally with other known facts." If we assume that the detailed account of the attack has more than a kernel of truth in it, why would the security sources want to divulge the details?. One headline explained it all – "Khartoum flames seen in Iran' wrote Ron Ben Yishai Yediot Ahronot's military analyst. Careful to preface his comments with the standard phrase- "According to foreign sources," Ben Yishai said, "However, if Israeli jets did carry out the strike, it means it took place some 1,600 kilometers from Israel, nearly the same distance between central Israel and the uranium enrichment plants in Iran …… Therefore, the attack, if it was carried out by Israel, also sent a strong message to Tehran.      "According to the Sunday Times the attack was carried out in the early hours by four F-15I fighter-bombers, each carrying two one-ton bombs and accompanied by four additional F-15s providing air-cover in case Sudanese Mig-29 fighters attempted to intercept. Along with the fighters were two CH-53 "Yasur" helicopters carrying teams of IAF search-and-rescue commandos in case air-crew from a downed fighter needed extracting from enemy territory.
The fighters were refueled en-route by a Boeing 707 aerial tanker and a Gulfstream 550 "Shavit" executive plane, adapted for electronic warfare, jammed the Sudanese radar and air-defence systems.  Israeli military analyst Alex Fishman believes the factory was actually owned and operated by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard. “One thing is certain: That factory did not belong to the Sudanese military industries,” he said. “It was a factory that belonged to the government in Tehran and which was run by Iranians. If there were any casualties in the attack, it is reasonable to assume that some of them were Iranian.”                                                                        Former IAF commander Eitan Ben-Eliyahu said, "The main difficulty in such an attack is precise intelligence. Getting to the target requires a flight of about two and a half hours, presumably on a southerly flight path along the Red Sea coast, under the Saudi and Egyptian  radar and with aerial refueling…….. There is no doubt that the explosions at the Sudanese arms factory have given elements in Khartoum, Gaza and Tehran something to think about."

Have a good weekend.

Beni                            1^st of November, 2012.