Concerned, but safe.

 In the weekly column he writes for The Guardian British journalist Jonathan Freedland said, “After six months, the war in Gaza is making Israel a pariah state.” ...

“Netanyahu’s decisions have brought death to Palestinians and harmed his own people. Hamas laid a trap and he walked right in.”

 I want to insert a margin note here: I think many, if not most Middle East affairs analysts agree that Israel is rapidly becoming a pariah state. However, I doubt if they would give Hamas credit for laying a trap for Netanyahu.

“So, what might be the lasting consequences of this six-month war? Who will emerge weaker and who stronger?” Freedland asked.

“At first glance, you might assume Hamas would be disappointed by the results of its murderous efforts on October 7.                                   Hamas’s rampage through southern Israel brought hellfire down on the people of Gaza, provoking an Israeli response that has left a staggering 2% of the population dead and displaced the rest.

Another margin note regarding the fatalities. No matter how they are counted, innocent bystanders who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, or Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists intentionally ‘terminated’ by the IDF, they will be lumped together statistically by people who don’t want to distinguish between the two categories. 

 

 That scale of destruction won’t unduly trouble Hamas leaders: the death of others is a sacrifice they are willing to make. But they will lament the losses among their own: an estimated 10,000 men, more than a third of their fighting force, along with three battalion commanders and seven members of the ruling political bureau, according to Michael Milshtein, a former senior intelligence officer, widely regarded as Israel’s foremost expert on Hamas. “Hamas has lost or used up almost all its arsenal of rockets – and, its greatest disappointment, the action failed to spark the wider regional onslaught against Israel it dreamed of. Moreover, Milshtein said, Israeli forces have to face a further challenge.

Hamas has lost about 10,000 of their 30,000 members, but this gap can be closed quickly," he said. "In Gaza there are plenty of young Palestinians that want to join Hamas.

And yet, Hamas will regard itself as anything but the loser in the six-month war. For all of Benjamin Netanyahu’s talk of the ‘total defeat’ of Hamas, it is still standing. Most of its key Gaza leaders remain alive and present; it is still ‘the prominent actor in Gaza”.

Despite all that the people of Gaza have endured, their approval of Hamas’s role in the war stands at 70%, according to the veteran Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki.

Still, the chief source of the satisfaction Hamas will be feeling, six months on from October 7, lies elsewhere – not in what’s happened to it, but rather in what’s happened to its mortal enemy: Israel.

For six months, Israel has asked for the world’s understanding, trying to explain that it faces a brutal enemy – one that hides underground, among and underneath a civilian population, and thinks nothing of firing rockets and missiles from hospitals, schools and mosques. For that reason, foreign governments have granted Israel considerable forbearance. But that has now run out. And much of it comes down to the decisions Israel took not on combat, but on aid.

  Amid the slaughter and with famine looming, Israel's allies must say enough is enough. If not now, when?

 I don’t blame the Israeli public for that. But I do blame their leaders. Even if they did nothing to address the root causes of the conflict, their job was to transcend the rage and terror of that moment, to think calmly and strategically even amid the panic. To realise in that moment that their fight was with Hamas, not the entire population of  Gaza. Instead, they have sown hatred in the hearts of a new generation, and they have made lonely a country that cannot function alone.

So, no, there are no winners in this dreadful war.” Freedland concluded.

Kobi Michael, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), wrote in a recent analysis “Hamas has also been affected by the loss of military personnel. Nevertheless, it will survive politically."

Kobi Michael is convinced Hamas is able to recover to a limited extent, albeit "without the advanced rocket capabilities displayed during this war."

Gil Murciano, CEO of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies echoed that view, saying Hamas fighters would still be able to operate in small groups using guerrilla tactics. 

"However, it is no longer functional at battalion level as only four battalions are still operational in Rafah. They may have been weakened by the IDF, but they are still functional." 

In Israel, the idea of a two-state solution has lost traction since the Oct. 7 attack, according to a number of polls conducted recently. 

The sentiment aligns with Netanyahu's longtime opposition to an independent Palestinian state, but that hasn't boosted his popularity since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

 Worrying as undoubtedly it is, our immediate concern is an Iranian reprisal attack.

Western and Arab governments are rushing to convince Iran to show restraint as the US warned allies that Tehran was close to military retaliation against Israel over an attack on its Damascus consulate. The diplomatic push on Thursday came as concerns rose in western capitals that Iran is preparing to respond directly against Israel, rather than through proxies, to avenge the assassination of several Iranian top generals last week. Washington has recently informed allies that Iran’s retaliation could be imminent as it urged them to put pressure on Tehran to hold back. A US  spokesman said a direct strike by Iran on Israel was possible, an action that would significantly escalate six months of hostilities in the region.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock phoned her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Thursday to discuss the rapidly worsening security situation. “Nobody can have any interest in regional escalation,” the German foreign ministry said in a statement issued after Baerbock’s call. “All players in the region are called upon to act responsibly and exercise restraint.”

Amirabdollahian also held phone conversations with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar on Wednesday night, with Iran’s foreign ministry saying the consequences of Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate were among the topics discussed. He also spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that the attack last week, which killed several senior Iranian commanders, was equivalent to an attack on Iranian territory, and that Israel must be “punished”. Khamenei’s language, particularly in likening the attack to a breach of Iran’s sovereignty, has raised concerns that any retaliation will potentially be directly against Israel, rather than channelled through Iran’s proxies in the region. Responding to Khamenei’s statement, US President Joe Biden stressed his “ironclad” support for Israel, pointedly saying the US would do “all we can” to protect the security of its ally. A senior US official said Iran had delivered a message to Washington after the Damascus strike. In response, Washington warned Tehran “not to use the strike as a pretext to further escalate tension in the region or attack US facilities or personnel”. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on the Iranian consulate, which was widely seen as the most serious blow to the Iranian military since the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. However, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have all blamed Israel, and Iranian officials have repeatedly said there will be a response.

Israeli security analysts have said an Iranian attack could range from a strike via one of Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, to a direct attack on Israel from Iran itself, which could risk an escalation of the regional conflict. An Iranian official said last week that Israeli embassies were “no longer safe”, sparking speculation that they could be a potential target. Amid concerns of a broader conflict, the German airline Lufthansa, one of the few international carriers flying to Tehran, suspended flights to the Iranian capital.

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq called Iran’s foreign minister and discussed regional tensions.

According to an anonymous source the Arab foreign ministers spoke to their Iranian counterpart after they received calls from Brett McGurk, National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa. McGurk asked them to convey a message to Iran of the need to de-escalate the situation.

That being said, I sleep soundly at night placing my trust in our defence and security forces.

 

Stay safe.

 

Beni,

11th of April, 2024