The path that led from the road into one of the JNF forests in Upper Galilee was not one of the marked and mapped Nature Preservation Society tracks. It appeared to be a much trodden route beaten by weekend travellers looking for wildflowers. As we followed in their footsteps two verses of the immortal "Teddy Bears' Picnic" came to mind.
If you go down to the woods today
You're sure of a big surprise
If you go down to the woods today
You'd better go in disguise.
If you go down to the woods today
You'd better not go alone
It's lovely down in the woods today
But safer to stay at home.
Well we weren't wearing a disguise and we certainly didn't expect a surprise encounter with a bear in any form or shape. The last Syrian Bear (Ursus arctos syriacus), a subspecies of the Brown Bear was shot by hunters hereabouts in 1934. Today, the Syrian Bear still ranges from Turkey to Iran, including the Caucasus Mountains of Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but is generally believed to be extinct in its namesake country of Syria, as well as neighbouring Lebanon. Although the bear is known to avoid contact with people the prophet Elisha appears to have enlisted a couple of bears to avenge the insults he suffered (2 Kings 3:4–24). Notwithstanding its "doesn't live here anymore" status, the Syrian Brown Bear was chosen as Syria’s Animal of the Year for 2010. Lately it's open season for the Syrian army bent on killing nonviolent protesters and armed resistance fighters alike.
After sifting through various accounts of the fighting in Syria I find it difficult to assess the situation. Syrian President Bashar al Assad is a chip off the old block. Like his father before him he is resorting to violent means to suppress all opposition to his regime. The demonstrations continue and in recent weeks there have been clashes between armed rebel opposition groups and Assad's infantry and armoured corps units.
Referring to the Free Syria Army (FSA), in a Washington Institute publication Andrew J. Tabler said that while the FSA is more like a franchise than a centrally commanded militia, it now represents a major force within the Syrian opposition that Washington is struggling to reckon with. The FSA emerged last summer as a collection of Syrian army defectors who fled to Turkey. Once dismissed as a mere Internet phenomenon, the FSA and other domestically based groups of armed defectors joined forces to carry out attacks against regime forces throughout the country. Armed opposition units have attacked regular army units and army camps. They are armed with weapons smuggled over from neighbouring Lebanon (as well as Turkey and Iraq) or weapons seized from Assad regime depots
So far U.S. policy has been to support non-violent means of opposing the Assad regime as, quite rightly, the opposition has much more political leverage keeping the high moral ground and the regime has the armed opposition heavily outgunned. Nevertheless, the international community's inability to get Assad to stop shooting his way out of the crisis, as well as its reluctance to intervene on the ground, means that more and more Syrians are looking to the FSA not as an alternative to the protest movement, but rather as a way to support an overall revolutionary effort. Tabler asks, "Will Washington follow suit? What kinds of assistance can and should the United States and its allies provide the FSA as part of an overall strategy of helping to achieve President Obama's goal outlined last August to get Assad "to step aside"? Or should Washington subcontract that support to regional allies who may share Washington's short term goal of changing the Assad regime, but differ significantly on what political forces should replace Assad? " US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said there is a growing consensus that Assad's days are numbered. Karim Emile Bitar a senior fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris was a little more optimistic. He said the regime's prospects are better than two months ago but remain dim
Bitar noted that the Arab League's mission to Syria failed miserably, the Syrian economy is falling apart and the opposition's protests continue unabated. Bad as the situation is, the main pillars of Assad's support are still standing. The military and the security apparatus remain loyal to the regime, mostly for sectarian considerations. Assad can still count on significant popular support particularly among religious minorities, whose fears and existential angst keep them from switching sides. Despite defections from the army Syria's two major cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have not joined the revolution, partly because of the close surveillance exerted by the "shabiha" militias--but also because of the vested interests of the Sunni business elites who have too much to lose and have not fully accepted the opposition's rationale.
The US withdrawal from Iraq and the spectre of a wide Sunni-Shiite internecine war help the Syrian regime's propaganda. Also, the anti-Putin demonstrations in Moscow increased Russia's fear of revolutionary contagion and act as an incentive for Putin to keep supporting Assad. All these factors reinforce Bashar Assad's delusions that he can cling to power if he only digs in his heels and waits for the storm to pass. He knows that 2012 is an election year in France, in the United States and in Russia and that a western military intervention is not on the agenda. He knows that an Iraq under increasing Iranian influence will soon take over Qatar's place at the head of the Arab League. Assad is still convinced that his regime can show resilience, at least in the absence of a US-Russian or US-Iranian grand bargain that would lead his two foreign patrons to pull the plug on him.
Assad still has to find a way to overcome Syria's seemingly untenable economic situation. European Union sanctions preventing Syria from selling its oil are costing the country $450 million per month. Tax revenues are down 50 percent. The budget deficit is close to 20 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The Syrian pound is under severe pressure. Foreign exchange reserves are rapidly depleting and are now estimated by many experts at less than $12 billion.
From Israel's point of view the worst case scenario imaginable is a fundamentalist Muslim government replacing Assad's Ba’ath party regime. Russia prefers dealing with the Assad and fears the prospect of a regime change in Syria. In this regard it would seem that Russia and Israel share common interests. I doubt if this so. Israel wants to sever the weapons supply line from Syria to Hezbollah and would prefer a liberal democratic government in Damascus, be it Islamic or secular.
"What does Russia want?" asked journalist Hussain Abdul-Hussain in a piece he wrote for the Bitter Lemons blog. Abdul-Hussein says, Russian policy regarding Syria doesn't appear to be planned and coherent, but a closer look shows that Moscow has not prepared an end-game strategy for a possible regime change in Syria. Instead it is improvising its moves as events unfold.
Moscow is clearly interested in the survival of Assad's regime because Syria is a major importer of Russia's arms. Syria buys ten percent of Russia's annual arms exports amounting to $1 billion. Mindful that Russian arms manufacturers lost close to $4 billion in defence contracts in Libya following the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi's government, Moscow is keen to prevent the same thing happening in Syria.
Arms sales are not the only motive behind Russia's support for Assad. Putin fears that the collapse of yet another despotic Arab regime, a regime closely associated with Russia, might encourage Russian opposition groups Abdul-Hussein proffers a third reason behind Moscow's obstruction of the world effort to stop Assad's brutal force against his citizens, namely Russia's self-perception as heir to the glorious Soviet empire. Since Putin's accession to power in 2000, Moscow has always tried to show foreign policy muscle. Opposing Western initiatives is part and parcel of this policy.
Columnist Amanda Paul who writes for the Turkish English language Today’s Zaman, detects a change in Russian policy, “ With the death toll rising and the eventual fall of Assad -- one way or another – it's reasonable to suppose that Moscow realises that it may have to abandon its long-time friend. Hence, it has begun to hedge its bets.”
David Pollock and Andrew J. Tabler also believe the Russians are likely to change course. In an article they published in the Washington Institute bulletinPolicy Alert they wrote," Significantly, the absence of mandatory sanctions from the UN draft resolution was calculated to help secure the necessary Russian support (or at least abstention) in the Security Council. " …. "Although Russia has resisted further Security Council action on Syria, invoking the recent Libyan intervention as an unacceptable precedent, there are reasons beyond the mere absence of sanctions to suspect that Moscow's policy may soon shift in a more favorable direction. Arab media report rumors that Russian economic and military interests in Syria may be privately guaranteed both by outside powers and by the Syrian opposition, and that Russia may be quietly designated to offer Assad asylum. Most of all, Russia may accept assurances that this relatively mild resolution will hold off military intervention against the tottering Syrian regime until a relatively friendly replacement takes over. None of this is certain, but the odds appear to be increasing every day."
In May last year a Syrian blogger using the nom de plume Ali al-Hajj, wrote in the Guardian likening Bashar al-Assad to an aging bear falling from a tree. "The world is trying to slow the fall in order to soften the blow and avoid a regional conflagration."
According to the Israeli Meteorological Service January was the rainiest month recorded so far. The rain has spurred wildflower growth. Wild poppies are in full bloom in the south. They say lupins are flowering near Neura (a nearby Arab village). On Saturday, weather permitting we will join a few friends on a drive to points of interest in the Birya forest near Safed. Mindful of a remote possibility that a Syrian bear might have wandered back here, we plan to eat lunch in an Italian restaurant near Hatzor.
Have a good weekend
Beni 2nd of January, 2012.
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