The men at the helm

There was a time when the directors of the Mossad and the General Security Service were not referred to by name. Anonymity was a prerequisite demanded of both rank and file operatives and the directors of these security services. Today the field operatives still remain nameless, but their commanders, the heads of the Mossad, GSS and MI (Military Intelligence) are known by face and name. Once considered a commitment to lifelong anonymity in Israeli society, today high ranking members of these intelligence organisations, especially the directors, are considered good candidates for managerial positions in the business community and often in politics too. This process follows a trend started by retired IDF top brass. Moshe Dayan, Ariel Sharon, and Yitzhak Rabin were the first to enter the political arena. In the GSS and the foreign intelligence Mossad service, the trend showed up much later (during the mid-1990s), even though Isser Harel (who served as head of both services) and Meir Amit of the Mossad were both elected to the Knesset much earlier. The GSS, General Security Service, sometimes defined as Israel’s domestic intelligence agency is widely known by the acronym Shabak or simply abbreviated to the first two letters – Shin Bet. This lengthy preamble serves to introduce a heated debate concerning uncomplimentary comments made by former Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin at a public meeting last Friday..

Since retiring from the service, Diskin has remained very much “out of sight and out of mind.” Consequently, when he criticised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak his remarks caused considerable speculation. " Yuval Diskin said the prime minister,Binyamin Netanyahu, and defence minister, Ehud Barak – the principal advocates of military action against Iran's nuclear programme – were unfit to lead the country and could not be trusted to conduct a war. The "messianic" pair were misleading the public on the merits of an attack. ‘I've seen them from up close. They are not messiahs, either of them, and they are not people whom I, on a personal level, trust to lead the state of Israel into an event of that scale. They are not the people whom I would truly want to be at the helm when we set out on an endeavour of that sort,’”

In an article published in the Huffington Post Diskin's comments were interpreted in the context of similar remarks made by other security colleagues. “There’s a rift growing between the hawkish Netanyahu government and the security establishment over the question of a strike – and Netanyahu’s allies quickly rushed to his defense.

In Israel, security figures carry clout well into retirement. Although they frequently pursue political careers, Diskin had been seen as relatively apolitical, perhaps lending his words even greater weight.

Diskin said it was possible that "one of the results of an Israel attack on Iran could be a dramatic acceleration of the Iran program. ... They will have legitimacy to do it more quickly and in a shorter timeframe."

Several members of Netanyahu's coalition issued statements questioning Diskin's motives and suggesting that in effect he had allied himself with Israel's dovish opposition.

The prime minister's office called the former Shin Bet chief's remarks 'irresponsible,' while Barak's office accused Diskin of 'acting in a petty and irresponsible way based on personal frustration' and 'damaging the tradition of generations of Shin Bet leaders.'

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman also took a swipe at Diskin.

'If you do not trust the prime minister and the defense minister, you should have resigned and not waited for the end of your term,' he said.

Further complicating the picture is the widely held suspicion that Israel's threats may actually amount to a bluff of historic proportion which has if anything been effective in compelling the world to boycott Iranian oil and isolate its central bank. From that perspective, criticism such as Diskin's, based on a literal approach, could be construed as simplistic and self-defeating."

Israeli security directors have criticised the government on a number of policy matters: whether sanctions will make a strike unnecessary, whether a strike will be militarily effective, and whether Israel should strike unilaterally if it cannot gain American approval.

Diskin's speech – in which he also attacked the government for not actively pursuing peace with the Palestinians – came days after IDF C in C, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, also seemed to disagree with the country's leadership on the likelihood that Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon.

Gantz told Associated Press this week that Iran is seeking to develop its "military nuclear capability," but that the Islamic Republic would ultimately bow to international pressure and decide against building a weapon. The key to that pressure, he said, were sanctions and the threat of a military strike.

Diskin's remarks certainly weren't a ground-breaking critical appraisal. Last summer Meir Dagan, retired director of the Mossad called a strike against Iran's nuclear programme "stupid." Dagan, said an effective attack on Iran would be difficult because Iranian nuclear facilities are scattered and mobile

Other senior figures with security backgrounds have questioned whether Israel should act alone, as Netanyahu insists the country has a right to do.

An opinion poll conducted by the Dahaf agency recently, indicates that public opinion isn’t overly enthusiastic about attacking Iran alone. The survey, conducted by the Israeli polling agency for the University of Maryland, said 81 percent of Israelis oppose a solo attack on Iran. At the same time, it said two-thirds of Israelis would support military action if coordinated with Washington..

An attack on Iran would likely cause oil prices to skyrocket at a time when the global economy is already struggling – risking a new recession for which Israel would absorb much if not most of the blame. Some also fear that Iran might attack American targets in response to any Israeli strike – a scenario that could directly influence the outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election.

According to a report published in the New York Times this week American officials and non-aligned analysts believe that the chances of a military conflict over the Iranian nuclear programme have significantly decreased..

Some observers argue that Dagan’s animus against Netanyahu and Barak stems from the fact that his tenure in the Mossad was not extended. A similar opinion is proffered to explain Diskin's critical remarks. They claim he was passed over to replace Dagan as director of the Mossad.

I don't know if there is any truth in these claims. If I'm not mistaken Dagan retired after eight years as director of the Mossad. At the time there were rumours that he might be asked to extend his tenure.

Yuval Diskin directed the Shin Bet for six years. There were also rumours that he might be asked to succeed Dagan.

Other observers familiar with the intelligence community believe the criticism levelled at the current political leadership is motivated by a serious concerns and is not at all vindictive .

The prime minister's decision to call for early parliamentary elections can in no way be construed to be influenced by the Diskin-Dagan episode.

A few months ago political observers reasoned that the Likud led coalition government would run its full term. Now Netanyahu thinks an early date for the elections is more advantageous . It's reasonable to suppose that elections will be held early in September. However, it’s difficult to predict what the outcome of these elections will be. Just the same, I’ll hazard a guess and say that Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to win enough seats to form another coalition government. Ehud Barak's breakaway faction is not expected to win even one seat in the Knesset. The Kadima centrist party now led by Shaul Mofaz will probably lose seats. The Labour party with Shelly Yachimovich at the helm is expected to make gains. The ultra-Orthodox Shas party is facing a leadership crisis. The party's former leader Arieh Deri announced his return to politics last month. Twelve years ago Deri was sentenced to three years in prison for bribery. Now, after the required rehabilitation period he plans to return topolitics.. The charismatic Arieh Deri knows he won't be asked to lead Shas, so it's quite likely that he will form a new party competing with Shas for the same segment of the religious vote Another centrist party will be contesting these elections. Journalist and T.V showman Yair Lapid hopes to convince mainly middle class voters to support him.

The Economist made a point that most Israeli political analysts preferred not to mention this week, certainly not while the prime minister is in mourning. Earlier this week Mr Netanyahu’s father, Ben-Zion Netanyahu died at the age of 102. Professor Netanyahu a rigidly right-wing ideologist and distinguished historian had a profound influence on his son. His demise has rekindled hopes on the left—and fears on the right—of a new pragmatism in the son. “Mr Netanyahu himself has always snorted at suggestions that he was cowed or inhibited by his father’s ideological severity.” said the Economist.

If he chose to do so Netanyahu might be able to do without the two ultra-Orthodox parties in his current coalition. Exploring another option the Economist speculated, “Or he could dispense with Yisrael Beitenu, the mainly Russian immigrant party led by Avigdor Lieberman, the ultranationalist foreign minister, who has long been under investigation over his businesses; on April 30th the attorney-general said he would decide ‘within a few weeks’ whether to prosecute him.

The re-emergence of the social-justice protest expected soon is another factor that caused him to opt for early elections. High on the list of demands from the social-justice movement is an end to the blanket exemption from military service for the ultra-Orthodox. The Supreme Court has ruled it unconstitutional. If Mr Netanyahu fails to back the exemption, he may lose the support of the ultra-Orthodox. If he does not, he could lose other potential partners and endanger his own popularity.

Have a good weekend.

Beni 3^rd of May, 2012.