THE JOINT AIR PATROLS

Originally, I planned to plunge into the murky waters of our submarine scandal this week.

I prepared a preamble about 19^th century submarines with reference to Jules Verne’s classic science fiction adventure novel “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas.” I thought of adding a brief summary of submarine warfare in the two world wars, but on second thoughts I decided to surface and review new developments in the Golan Heights region.

Earlier this week several Israeli news outlets reported heightening tension in the Golan. The Times of Israel claimed that, “Israeli military officials are holding talks with Russian army officers to calm tensions after Moscow’s Defence Ministry said on Monday that it held a joint jet patrol with Syria along the latter’s borders, including in the Golan Heights area.

According to the Ynet news site, Israeli officials are struggling to understand why Russia has apparently changed its policy toward Israel, after it announced that the joint air force patrols are expected to be a regular occurrence.

The report claimed, without citing a source, that Israel may limit its air campaign in Syria as a result of Russia’s move, even after discussions end.

The joint patrol, reported Monday by the Russian independent “Interfax news agency”, occurred on Saturday.

The Ynet report noted that the news came amid tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border as Western powers scramble to counter an implied threat by Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade the neighbouring country.

News of the joint patrols puzzled some Middle East affairs commentators. They remarked that Israel’s close relations with Russia and Putin are often seen as linked to the two countries’ close military coordination in Syria, in particular when the IDF carries out purported strikes on sites within Syria. However, I think Seth J. Frantzman described the situation best in an Op-ed he wrote for the Jerusalem Post.  Frantzman is the paper’s senior Middle East correspondent and Middle East affairs analyst.

“In 2021, Iranians attacked the US Tanf garrison in Syria, and US media outlets said the Iranians had acted in retaliation for Israeli strikes. In 2019, Iraqi militias also accused Israel of a series of airstrikes.

Last May, Iran flew a drone from Iraq into Israeli airspace. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic built up a base called Imam Ali near Albukamal in Syria and moved drones to the T-4 base, also in Syria. Tehran sought to bring the 3rd Khordad air-defence system to the T-4 base in April 2018.

This is the context of the campaign between the wars.

The other context is that in the summer of 2018, the Syrian regime retook areas in southern Syria from Syrian rebels and established itself on the Golan Heights border. Russian peacekeepers came as well, and Hezbollah forces encroached near the Golan Heights. This resulted in the terrorist group moving drones toward an area in the Golan in 2019.

Meanwhile, Russia was more focused on reconciling with Syrian rebels and recruiting them for the Syrian army. Moscow began to express more concerns about Israeli airstrikes, going as far as to claim in November 2019 that Israel had overflown Jordan to conduct airstrikes in Syria. It also said it would upgrade Syrian air defences after a 2018 incident near Latakia in which Syrian air defence shot down a Russian plane while trying to stop Israeli airstrikes.

Moscow also released more statements criticising Israeli airstrikes, but it has been quiet in recent months, even after airstrikes in Latakia in December.

So what is going on? Russia’s defence ministry has clearly indicated that the recent daytime patrol included an area near the Golan Heights. It said the patrol flights “will continue to operate on a regular basis,” Reuters reported.

“The mission route included the Golan Heights region, the southern border of Syria, the Euphrates River and northern Syria,” the statement said. “The Russian pilots took off from Khmeimim Air Base, while the Syrians took off from the Sayqal and Al-Dumayur bases near Damascus.”

The patrols were conducted with the Sukhoi Su-34 attack aircraft, Sukhoi Su-35S multi-mission fighter jets, A-50 command-and-control aircraft and the Syrian army’s MiG-23 and MiG-29 aircraft, Reuters reported.

 Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighter 

While Israel has not been involved in aerial combat in Syria, most of these aircraft are no match for the IAF’s F-35s and advanced munitions. Israel shot down a Syrian Sukhoi fighter jet near the Golan in 2018; Syria has not retaliated for that incident. Israel has often coordinated with Russia in a kind of deconfliction in Syria since 2015, when Russia began major operations there.

The news of the Russian patrols appears to be a message bragging that the Syrians and Russians will work closely to project power and impress upon the world that Syria has sovereignty over parts of the country, even though the US has bases there, and Turkey occupies part of northern Syria.

Moscow and Damascus want to send a message of strength to former Syrian rebels in southern Syria who work with Russia. The message may not be directed at Israel or not solely at Israel.

Most reports of Israeli airstrikes in Syria occur at night. There is no evidence that Russian and Syrian warplanes will be patrolling at night.

Four other factors are involved:

The US has supported Israel’s actions in Syria

Russia doesn’t always share interests with Iran

Israel has been reported by the Russians to overfly Jordan to conduct strikes

Israel can use standoff munitions with a long range, meaning the joint patrols may not yet pose a major problem.

Deconfliction also means potentially making sure the patrols occur with Israel’s knowledge. Israel’s advanced radar can also detect them.

The major question mark is whether these patrols will embolden Syria’s regime and Iranian-backed elements in Syria. Iran could use them as cover to attack Israel or use its proxies to strike at the US and Israel.” 

This could be one part of a multistage Russian operation to assert Syrian regime sovereignty. Eventually, that could lead to potential friction. Israel’s leadership will have to weigh these issues and analyse its next steps.

 Daniel Byman editor of Lawfare said, “The Syrian civil war destabilized the Middle East, weakened the Assad regime and damaged the credibility of the United States. Moscow was one of the few winners to emerge, establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with in the region.”

“Six years after Russia intervened in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad from an imminent demise, Moscow has largely prevailed. Far from getting stuck in an Afghanistan-like ‘quagmire’ that many observers had predicted, President Vladimir Putin has achieved his key objectives without incurring crippling costs.” Wrote

Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the book “Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence.” Ms. Borshchevskaya’s article was posted a few days before the joint air patrols. Nevertheless, it provides a good analysis of the forces involved and their objectives. “What were those objectives, what did Moscow gain, and what does it mean for future crises in the region?

The Syria intervention was about many things, but at its core it was about pushing back against the U.S.-led liberal international order…..”In Syria, like nowhere else, Moscow took a stand against years of perceived American unilateralism. Russia finally acted as the great power that it is

Key to the operation’s success was its limited aims, which were focused to avoid the Soviet Union’s Afghanistan-like scenario of overextension. Moscow’s military campaign provided primarily air support but also included a naval component and a small number of elite ground troops; this narrow scope made it financially affordable. Moscow relied on other actors, chiefly Iran and Iran-backed proxies, to do the heavy lifting. This approach entailed working with all the major players in the region, including those that were in conflict in the Syrian theatre—which positioned Russia as a mediator and bolstered Moscow’s leverage.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu, former Israeli Air Force Commander from 1996 to 2000, said the Iranian activity in Syria and the Israeli strikes that it provokes undermine Assad’s sovereignty. “Hence, I see this is as a demonstration of coordinated interests between Russia and Syria,” he said.  

Putin is interested in “completing the hegemony that he is building in Syria through a puppet named Assad. So long as the Syrian war raged, he needed Iran,” said Ben Eliyahu.

That meant Russia was willing to accept the corridor that Iran built to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian malign action against Israel as long as Iran was activating force to help defeat rebel forces that had threatened Assad.

“With the passage of time it becomes clear that Assad is consolidating his takeover, the Russian interest of allowing Iran to be in Syria is decreasing,” added Ben Eliyahu. “It is in Israel’s interest to allow Russia to push the Iranians out of Syria,” he argued.

Until that happens Israel will continue to attack Iranian proxy forces in Syria, arms shipments en route to Lebanon and Hezbollah forces in Syria regardless of the joint Russian and Syrian air forces patrols.

Let’s conclude with the weather, namely the Elpis snow storm that is battering Israel currently. So far, Elpis has brought snow mostly to the Golan Heights, and Jerusalem, but is expected to bring snow to other elevated areas

The Hellenic National Meteorological Service assigned the name Elpis to the storm that brought a heavy snow fall to Athens before moving to Turkey, then turning south through Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

I’m told that In Greek mythology, Elpis (Ancient Greek: ἐλπίς) is the spirit of hope (usually seen as an extension to suffering by the Greeks, not as a god). She was depicted as a young woman, usually carrying flowers or a cornucopia. 

For the time being Elpis is a temporary distraction. Once the storm has run its course, we will turn our attention again to the joint patrol flights.

 

Take care

 

Beni                                                                                        27^th of January, 2022.