POPPIES

It was like “swatting a fly with a sledgehammer.” I refer to the IDF’s response to the cross-border incident involving a Hezbollah drone (UAV) last week.

The Times of Israel quoted an IDF source that said an Iron Dome interceptor missile was fired at the drone, but failed to bring it down. Air force jets and helicopters were also “scrambled” during the incident.

.According to a statement issued by Hezbollah the drone was on a reconnaissance mission and managed to penetrate Israeli airspace along a 73 km course before returning safely to Lebanon.

The same IDF source said the drone returned to Lebanon “after a few minutes”, adding that the drone was a glider type, but did not specify the exact model.

The Times of Israel noted that the drone had entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon a day after the IDF shot down another Hezbollah drone.

I’m not sure what happened, maybe the IDF response to the second drone penetration was over cautious fearing that the intruder might be armed and was on a suicide mission. My guess is as good as yours. However, the IDF follow-up response was loud and emphatic. Citing an unnamed Lebanese security source, Al Jazeera reported that two Israeli fighter jets flew from the Mediterranean Sea over Beirut before leaving several minutes later.

Hebrew language media reports said the Israeli jets flew over Beirut’s Dahiya neighbourhood, a Hezbollah stronghold, deliberately setting off sonic booms.

“The low flying fighter jets jolted residents, rattled windows and set off some car alarms”.

So far this week there have been no drone overflights, except in Syria where Iranian proxies and armaments were targeted by IAF fighter bombers. They flew close to a Russian naval and air force base at Latakia. Apparently, the hotline between the IDF and the Russian forces in Syria was employed giving prior notice of the attack.           I mention this because some observers reasoned that the Russian “intervention” in Ukraine would adversely affect the Israeli air force’s (IAF) freedom to attack Iranian arms shipments and Iranian proxy forces in Syria. However, it seems that Israel is managing to maintain a delicate balance between alignment with the West regarding Ukraine and the continued convenient “understanding” with the Russian forces.        A few weeks ago, I expressed concern about the joint Russian and Syrian patrol flights, but that was before the Ukraine crisis had climaxed.

If indeed the Iron Dome interceptor for one reason or another failed to down the Hezbollah drone I doubt if it will affect its export sales. Potential customers are attracted by the system’s 90% + interception rate more than anything else. In fact, a recent Ynet report said that Israel had refused a sale of the system to Ukraine ostensibly not to annoy Moscow. The report claims that “Kyiv began a pressure campaign on lawmakers in Washington to facilitate a deal. The Ukrainians also officially asked the US to deploy American patriot missile systems and the Iron Dome system in Ukraine last year long before a Russian invasion was a tangible threat.”                          

Ukraine isn’t the only country said to be interested in the Iron Dome System. A number of media reports have suggested that Gulf states want the system. With drone and missile threats increasing against the UAE, air defences are needed more than ever in Abu Dhabi.

The intricate relationships between the US and Israel, US funding for these systems, and also partnerships between Israeli and US companies, are key to understanding what is happening.

The US Army has acquired two Iron Dome batteries. This took years to conclude.

(Partly due the US army command’s reluctance to buy the Israeli air defence system. The two Iron Dome batteries were purchased only after pressure from the US Congress).  

Considering how slow procurement works, the idea that Iron Dome batteries could

 be sold “off-the-shelf” to the Gulf, Ukraine or to anyone else, is not reasonable. It takes time for sales contracts to materialise. The technology is also very sensitive.

Israel has sold the radar used in the Iron Dome system, made by IAI’s (Israel Aerospace Industries) Elta, to the Czech Republic in a 2019 deal, but radar is less sensitive than missiles.

Undoubtedly, the Iron Dome Defence System is Israel’s best known air-defence system, but Israel makes a plethora of other defence systems. For instance, Rafael showcased its Spyder air defence system at this week’s Singapore Air Show.

Spyder is a quick reaction, lower-tier Air-Defence system, designed to counter enemy aircraft, bombs, UAV’s, and precision-guided munitions. It provides effective protection of valuable assets, as well as reliable defence for manoeuvring forces.

Our air–defence are evolving continuously with new refinements and capabilities   

Israel’s multi-tiered air-defence system will be augmented by a laser beam system.

“Israel will surround itself with a defensive ‘laser wall,’ with new missile interception technology to be ready within a year,” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. The IDF successfully intercepted drones with the powerful airborne laser system installed on a light aircraft in June. The system downed several UAVs at a range of one kilometre with a 100% success rate. The ministry intends to build a 100-kilowatt laser that will have an effective range of 20 km.

Bennett explained that today a terrorist in Gaza can launch a rocket into Israel that costs hundreds of dollars to make, while the Iron Dome interceptor missile costs tens of thousands of dollars.

“This equation doesn’t make sense,” the prime minister stated. “It allows [the terrorists] to launch more and more cheap rockets while we spend millions of dollars during a border flare-up and billions during a campaign. We decided to break the equation, and it will be broken in the near future.”

“If you can intercept a missile or rocket with an electric pulse that costs a few dollars, we are weakening the ring of fire that Iran has built on our borders.” Bennett said.

Israel’s defence companies are among the world’s leading industries. At the forefront are Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. Each firm possesses its own unique abilities and partners abroad. Normally the news media doesn’t report on their marketing efforts and sales.

The real world of Israel defence sales is far more complex than some of the reports about Iron Dome’s potential sales indicate. There are a number of systems produced by Israel, some of which may be easier for it to sell than those that are backed by the US and closely entwined with American defence companies, or which have sensitive operational details that allow for them to only be placed in the hands of reliable partners and allies.

A lot of Israel’s defence sales are not reported publicly due to the sensitivities involved. Israeli companies often vaguely state they have sold systems to an “Asian” country or to customers in South America or other places.

This means that in many cases, there is a lack of knowledge about the full story. That leads to headlines that appear to make it seem like Iron Dome could just be delivered overnight and be ready to use by any customer.

The reality, of course, is that acquiring air defence systems has a billion-dollar price tag that comes with buying interceptors, radar, command and control centres, waiting for delivery and then training on the system. Reports that seem to imply that an Iron Dome System could be immediately supplied to some country, and if doesn’t happen it’s because of political issues, misconstrues how air defence systems are acquired.

The reports also often misunderstand the nature of modern air defence. Countries need multi-layered systems like Israel has. This means that while the US makes Patriot, the THAAD system and short-range C-RAM, Israel makes Arrow, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Spyder, Barak and other systems. Sometimes these systems can work well together, especially the more that Israel and American companies work together.

But countries need to think about how to plan a multi-billion air defence budget. This is made even more challenging when they have systems supplied by the Russians or Chinese, such as the Pantsir-22.

Some countries are going through a transition, from one set of systems to another, and it’s not always an easy fit to take an Israeli, American or Western system and put it side-by-side with the concept of air defence that was developed by the USSR and then modernised by Russia or China in recent decades.

In a complex world underpinned by more rivalry between the US and “near-peer” adversaries such as China and Russia – and the Middle East divided between Iran and other countries, such as Israel and the Gulf – countries are ploughing money into air defences. This is particularly true due to rising drone threats and manoeuvring missiles, or PGMs.

However, as countries rush to acquire systems, they also have to look at new technologies, such as the lasers that Israel says it will soon roll out complementing the Iron Dome system,

Prime Minister Bennett concluded his address at the INSS gathering saying, “Israel’s allies in the region could be part of a ’multidimensional alliance’ against forces that seek to destabilize the Middle East.”

Rereading this post, I realise that it makes very dry reading, unless of course you are a military hardware enthusiast. To compensate for this, I’ll briefly mention the Anemone -coronaria or poppy that flowers in Israel from late November through to March.

I realise the name arouses an association with the current pandemic, but no more than that.

The poppy is also synonymous with “poppy day” following WW1. The red poppy has become a symbol of war remembrance the world over. People in many countries wear the poppy to remember those who died in war or are serving in the armed forces. In many countries, the poppy is worn on Armistice Day (11^th of November), but in New Zealand it is most commonly seen on Anzac Day, 25^th of April. It was one of the first plants to grow and bloom on battlefields in the Belgian region of Flanders. The connection was made most famously by a Canadian medical officer, Lieutenant-Colonel John McCrae, in his poem, ‘In Flanders fields’ that begins-

“In Flanders fields the poppies blow

Between the crosses row on row”

 

Particularly appropriate while Russia is invading Ukraine.

 

Nevertheless, have a good weekend.

Beni                                                                24^th of February 2020