THE NEGEV SUMMIT

If you recall, last week I promised to add something about the ongoing police investigation into the terrorist attack near Be’er Sheva.

For that purpose, I want to draw on an op-ed written by Yoram Schweitzer in the Times of Israel. The article was further expanded in an   INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) publication.

Schweitzer’s areas of research include the Salafi Jihadi “camp” including The Islamic State (Daesh) and its subjected partners; Al Qaeda and its affiliates; Hezbollah; and Palestinian terror groups. He is an authority on terror related topics, including suicide bombings in which he conducted a project interviewing failed suicide bombers and their dispatchers

Yoram Schweitzer continues to serve in the IDF's reserve forces contributing his accrued knowledge and experience.

This is what he had to say:

“The deadly attack in Be’er Sheva on March 22, in which four Israeli civilians were killed by a known and convicted ISIS supporter who was released from prison after only four years, demonstrated once again that the dangers of Salafi-jihadi terrorism do not bypass Israel.

Although even in its heyday enlistment among Arab citizens of Israel in the ranks of ISIS was relatively low and amounted to dozens of activists, there is support for the organization’s ideas, and individual activists, perhaps squads, are still willing to act on its behalf.

The case of Muhammad al-Qi’an, a resident of Hura, a Bedouin town in the Negev, who was previously convicted of membership in ISIS, with plans to join its ranks to fight in Syria, clearly proves this. At this stage it is not yet clear whether he acted alone, or whether, as is well known in many cases of individual terrorism, his plan involved secret partners and aides. The follow-up reports since his release reveal that to all appearances he was living a rather normal life.

Maintaining a low profile without activity on social networks or clandestine partners makes it difficult to prevent an attack ahead of time and leaves the outcome to a quick response and containment to avoid more casualties. In the Be’er Sheva case, the duration of the attack and the lack of a rapid counterterrorism response by the security forces led to the greater number of victims and left neutralisation of the terrorist to armed civilians who confronted him and eventually shot him dead.

At this stage, the concrete motive for the terrorist's decision to act is not clear, but it does not appear that he was directly instructed by external ISIS members. So far, ISIS has not claimed responsibility for the attack, though it may be difficult for ISIS to forego the opportunity to support or even take credit for a successful operation. We can speculate that the recent appointment of a new ISIS caliph, who has received broad allegiance in recent weeks from some of his 24 delegations around the world, along with a call to resume retaliation activity for the former caliph’s death, and the approach of Ramadan, could have been among al-Qi’an’s motives.

In addition, there’s the possibility of increased terrorist incidents during the particularly sensitive month of Ramadan.

At this juncture let’s take a look at al-Qi’an’s home town, Hura. It’s not what you would expect. Certainly not the familiar illegal Bedouin shanty town where lawlessness rules unbridled.

In 2015 Hura was described as a success story and by all accounts it still is.  

At that time the head of the Hura Local Council Dr. Mahmud El-Nabari said, “We

succeeded in changing the failed education system to one of success and excellence."

Dr. El-Nabari, who holds degrees in Chemistry and Environmental Studies, was 34 years old when he was elected Chairman of the Hura Local Council and had no previous experience in the field of local government. While 52 municipal council heads were replaced in the last elections, El-Nabari was re-elected to govern Hura for the third time in a row.

 "The Hura Council had suffered from poor management, serving the ruling clan rather than the entire community, but in the beginning, it was a shock because I had no experience in politics or in the public sector." El-Nabari said.
He promised to serve the entire community and must have done something right, because today the water rates payments stand at 96% and municipal tax payments- 99% - one of the highest rates in Israel. In recognition of his achievements, Dr. El-Nabari received an award from the Movement for Quality Government in Israel.

Last week after al-Qi’an’s murderous attack and subsequent death Hura residents condemned his actions. His family didn’t erect the traditional mourners’ tent where relatives and friends pay their respects. The whole town was in a state of shock.
A second terror attack in Hadera on Sunday raised speculations of a possible connection between the two attacks.

On Monday Israeli Police and security forces launched a widespread operation to identify and detain supporters of the Islamic State in the Arab sector following a deadly terror attack that left two Border Police officers dead.

As in the murderous killing spree in Be'er Sheva last week, Sunday's terror attack in Hadera was carried out by Israeli citizens affiliated with the Islamist group.

The attackers in Hadera were cousins, both residents of Umm al-Fahm. One of the gunmen was convicted in 2016 of attempting to join the Islamic State fighters

CCTV footage of the Sunday attack showed the two men firing multiple rounds and calmly replacing magazines to fire more, mimicking ISIS-style operations.

Following the Hadera attack the Shin Bet domestic security agency and the police arrested   suspects affiliated with the Islamic State to prevent additional copycat attacks by sleeper cells.

Some suspects may be arrested and held under administrative detention.   

This procedure enables arrest and detention of individuals by the state without trial, alleging that a person plans to commit a future offense.

Security forces are likely to request court orders before administrative detentions are made.

Security officials say they estimate there are up to dozens of Islamic State sympathisers among Israeli Arab citizens, some have actively attempted or even succeeded in reaching Syria or Iraq to join the Islamic State fighters in the past decade.

Intensive searches conducted by security forces and border police units in Umm al-Fahm where the perpetrators live resulted in the arrest of several suspects.

Umm al-Fahm’s   population is close to 57,000, while most of its residents are law abiding citizens the presence of the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement in the town is a constant source of concern for Israeli security services.

The first two terrorist attacks occurred just as US and Arab diplomats met in Sde Boker for an unprecedented regional summit hosted by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

"I briefed the participants of the Negev Summit on the details of the Hadera attack," Lapid said in a statement.

"All the foreign ministers condemned the attack, sent their condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded."

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid welcomes Emirati foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan 

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, taking part in the summit, condemned the attack in a separate message on Twitter.

When Israel sealed diplomatic agreements in 2020 with several Arab countries that had long avoided formal ties, questions remained about how functional, how sustainable and how meaningful those deals would be. Even last month, when Naftali Bennett became the first Israeli prime minister to visit Bahrain, he acknowledged that relations still needed to evolve “from ceremonies to substance.”

The regional summit at Sde Boker on Sunday and Monday was certainly heavy on spectacle and symbolism. But it is also unquestionably the substance that Israel has been hoping for.

“One can feel the tectonic plates in the Mideast shifting.” Wrote David Makovsky, a research fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Studies.

In another step in Israel’s integration in the region, four Arab foreign ministers are convening with their Israeli counterpart, and the meeting’s location, Sde Boker, matters. The Negev kibbutz is a site in a desert region that is most associated with David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s iconic Zionist leader and founding premier.

It’s significant that it was Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who convened the summit and that it is being attended by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The fact that the Arab countries would attend the meeting is a testament to Israel’s increasing centrality in the region. Yet it is also a testament to the fact that part of Israel’s strength—not all of it to be sure—is its relationship with Washington.

All the participants at the Negev Summit have their own grievances against the Biden administration, but none of them sees Israel as a substitute for the US superpower. It is fascinating that each of the Arab states attending the summit views Israel as a country that could either improve their standing in Washington or supplement what they are not getting from the US.

Notwithstanding the United States’ repeated emphatic denials of deprioritisation, the Arab nations see the US as downgrading the Mideast as a top tier concern, and, in the process, downgrading them. In such a world, the Negev Summit, because of Israel’s role in it, becomes a vehicle for key Arab states to remind the US not to take them for granted.

And indeed, deprioritising the region is a luxury the US cannot afford. The Ukraine crisis has reminded the world that Mideast oil is still relevant if the US is serious about weaning Europe away from Russian energy. The fact that the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates did not go out of their way to take President Joe Biden’s call to raise oil production, asking to reschedule instead, is a reminder of how snubbed these key Arab oil producers feel.

The grievances against Washington vary from country to country, but they are real. In each case, leaders in Arab countries notice when others claim to get more sympathy and assistance from Israel than they do from the US, as it projects its power in the region. Here are some examples.

Arabs notice that it is Israel that is willing to be kinetic against Iran, whether it is pushing back against Iran and proxies in Syria, in Iraq, and even inside Iran itself. In contrast, the US does not retaliate against Iranian strikes at the US—for example, in the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraq border, among other places. It is hard to escape the view that, unless US lives are lost in such attacks, the US does not want any retaliation.” David Makovsky added that Iran seems more fearful of Israel than it is of the United States. Arab states have also noticed this.

In this context, Israel has no qualms about highlighting the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s connection to Israel. This is done symbolically, in statements by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett after Houthi rocket attacks against Emirati targets, and, just now, when rockets were fired at oil installations in the Saudi port city of Jedda.

Furthermore, and going beyond words, senior Israeli security officials immediately went to Abu Dhabi to offer key military assistance to the Emiratis dealing with the Houthi threat. Yet a senior Gulf official said they did not feel that they had received sufficient military support or solidarity against the Houthis, as somehow the US saw the idea of active support as encouraging the war in Yemen. Israel does not have the same relationship with Riyadh that the US does, yet it does have significant contacts, and one must imagine that Israel is sharing intelligence with the kingdom against the Houthis.

In short, these Gulf countries tend to see the region through foreign and domestic threats coming from Iran and the Houthis. They perceive Israel as seeing the region through a similar lens. Egypt also falls into the same category as those in the Gulf: it feels it does not get enough from the US, considering the threats it faces domestically. Indeed, Egypt routinely calls on Israel to assist with members of Congress who threaten to reduce US military aid, as Egypt is one of the largest beneficiaries.

To complicate matters, the Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated Egypt’s economic vulnerability. It relies heavily on Ukraine for wheat to feed its population of over 100 million. Moreover, Sharm el Sheikh has been a winter resort for many tourists coming from Moscow and Kyiv alike. No more—at least for now.

Enter Israel and Israel’s willingness to fill in the gap with direct flights to Sharm. With Passover approaching, expect a reverse Exodus among secular Israelis.

Israel is no superpower and is very mindful that there is no substitute for the United States. Nonetheless, Ben-Gurion would have been proud that, given Arab perceptions that the US is engaged in retrenching in the Mideast, it is Israel being welcomed by key Arab states, expanding its regional profile and at least partly filling that void.

 

I was sure I could conclude this week’s post with emphasis on the Negev Summit. However, yet another terror attack on Tuesday night put an end to my high hopes. Five people were killed by a Palestinian terrorist in a shooting attack in Bnei Brak.

The assailant was later shot dead by a police officer who arrived at the scene on a motorcycle. The officer, 32-year-old Arab Christian Amir Khouri, was critically wounded in the exchange of fire and died later in hospital

The terrorist was identified as Dia Hamarsha, 27, from the village of Ya'bad in the northern West Bank near Jenin. He was jailed for six months in 2015 for dealing in illegal firearms and affiliation with a terrorist group, an
d had worked illegally at a Bnei Brak construction site.

Times of Israel editor David Horowitz summed up the situation as follows:

” With 11 people killed in three attacks in eight days, the fear is that Israel is facing a fresh, intifada-style onslaught. It isn’t… at least, not yet.”

There are too many people proffering their inexpert advice. Most of it based on preconceived ideas and gut feeling.

I place my trust in our combined intelligence agencies. They have the means and the knowhow to deal with the current wave of terror attacks.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni                                                                                        31^st of March, 2022.