PREFERENCES

I would have preferred to pretend it isn’t happening, but you know as well as I do that Israel is about to go to the polls again.

On Tuesday the people we elected to govern the country unanimously approved a bill to dissolve our legislative assembly (Knesset), a key legislative step that pushes the country closer towards its fifth election in less than four years.

There is no guarantee that the next coalition government will gain a decisive majority. I’m sure the money wasted on electing a new legislative assembly could be put to better use.  Clearly, a complete overhaul of our electoral system is direly needed, but I can’t see that happening any time soon.

The killing of Al-Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh is another topic I would have preferred not to mention. Mainly because it has been (excuse the pun) done to death.

So far, the so-called “investigations” have been based on hearsay and unreliable accounts by Jenin residents accusing the IDF of intentionally killing Shireen Abu Akleh. Some leading foreign newsoutlets have knowingly repeated these accusations without bothering to verify them.

Just the same, the IDF are currently conducting their own investigation, a sophisticated probe that is in a league of its own.

Canadian-born Anna Ahronheim writes about military affairs for the Jerusalem Post. In a recent report, she told how the IDF have added additional teams including those from elite intelligence units to help bolster its investigation into the death of the Al Jazeera reporter.

Of course, the people who have already made up their minds and don’t want to be confused by the facts will disqualify any and every Israeli investigation.

Quoting a report that appeared in Ynet News, Ahronheim said the investigating teams include special units from Military Intelligence Unit 9900 which is responsible for gathering visual intelligence including geographical data from satellites and aircraft, as well as mapping and interpreting visual intelligence (VISINT).

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit did not respond to the report. However. Lt.-Col. F who is commanding the investigation said, “Urban areas are more complicated, it takes a lot of GEOINT, sensors, and the right technology to obtain a complete picture.”

I’m told that GEOINT is:-  “An intelligence discipline comprising the exploitation and analysis of geospatial data and information to describe, assess, and visually depict physical features (both natural and constructed) and geographically reference activities on the Earth’s surface. Geospatial Intelligence data sources include imagery and mapping data, whether collected by commercial satellite, government satellite, aircraft (such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles [UAV] or reconnaissance aircraft), or by other means, such as maps and commercial databases, census information, GPS waypoints, utility schematics, or any discrete data that have locations on Earth.

The investigation is ongoing, nevertheless, a significant interim finding has determined that more than a thousand rounds were fired during the clash between IDF units and Palestinian terrorists in Jenin at the time Shireen Abu Akleh was shot.

The bullet that killed her is being held by the Palestinian Authority. PA President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to hand over the bullet for a jointly conducted ballistic/forensic examination.

 I’ll mention another topic I didn’t intend writing about, but I’m going to refer to it merely to say I was wrong,

I predicted that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence chief Hossein Taeb, would be added (according to foreign sources, of course) to the Mossad’s ‘hit list’. As you probably have heard he has lost his job, a position he held for more than 12 years. His demotion has probably saved his life.

In a slightly different context, Iran was debated by Israeli defence officials this week. According to an AFP report from Doha indirect talks between Iran and the US on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal have concluded with "no progress made", a State Department spokesperson said on Wednesday.

The negotiations in Doha were an attempt to reboot long-running European Union-mediated talks on a return to the 2015 agreement between Tehran and world powers.

Yossi Yehoshua - Ynet News claims that parallel to the talks in Doha a heated debate was sparked within Israel's defence establishment on its stance regarding the resumption of talks in Doha.

These disagreements further deepened after reports suggested that a growing number of senior IDF officers prefer a bad deal that would buy Israel more time to produce viable strike options, over no deal at all.

However, the Mossad opposes a return to the tattered nuclear pact and believes that the reports are part of a pressure campaign to sway Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, as of today Prime Minister Lapid, to throw his weight behind the talks.

The Mossad views the agreement very unfavourably and believes it will delay Iran's nuclear programme by no more than two and a half years, which it says is not long enough for the IDF to devise a comprehensive offensive plan.

Mossad officials assert that lifting Western economic sanctions as part of the framework of a potential agreement would only encourage Tehran to pump more money into its proxies and further entrench itself across the Middle East. They also believe that Iran would accelerate uranium enrichment untrammelled by the supervision of world powers once the agreement's sunset provision expires in 2025.

Meanwhile, Mossad Director David Barnea and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi seem to be on the same page in their opposition to the deal.

Defence Minister Benny Gantz responded to reports of disagreements between senior IDF officials and the Mossad regarding Israel’s stance on the Iranian nuclear deal, saying these discussions should be conducted behind closed doors.

“The defence establishment is dealing with the Iranian issue continuously, regarding it as the most important and urgent strategic threat to Israel’s security,” Gantz wrote on Twitter.

“This is done in coordination between all the security arms, and while giving freedom of opinion, the decisions are made by the political echelon.

We will continue to hold this open and deep discourse only behind closed doors. Any other way harms the security of the State of Israel,” Gantz added.

I would have preferred to write about something else, far removed from Israeli politics, defence, and security.

 Despite my preferences, I can’t ignore the topics that really concern us.

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni,                                                               1^st of July, 2022.