Diplomacy and debacles.

 

Agnes Helou Middle East Bureau Chief for Breaking Defense reporting from Beirut said “Despite reports circulating in the newsmedia that the White House is in discussions with Saudi Arabia about normalizing relations with Israel, both Washington and Riyadh have been careful to slow-roll the idea that any agreement is imminent.” … 

“To be sure, such a normalization would drastically alter the geopolitical dynamics of the region on a historic scale. But several experts and analysts expressed varying degrees of scepticism about what could come of negotiations — if anything — considering the obstacles still in the path to an agreement.

Among the challenges: the need to uphold Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, the Palestinian issues, and Saudi Arabia’s relations with Iran. Perhaps above all else, the biggest factor, some experts said, may be the Kingdom’s understanding that it holds the cards and can try to bleed the Biden administration for major American concessions ahead of the presidential elections. “

The rest of Ms. Helou’s report meanders on, quoting numerous expert opinions.

However, in my humble opinion, most of them are speculative.  Suffice to say that any kind of normalisation agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia won’t happen now, or in the foreseeable future.

On reconsideration I’ll mention remarks made by David Des Roches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Centre for Security Studies. -

“I think the reports of Saudi Arabia’s interest in an agreement should be taken as a maximalist opening gambit in what is likely to be a long series of negotiations, which will only begin in earnest once both President [Joe] Biden and King Salman [bin Abdulaziz Al Saud] have left the political scene.” … “There is a lack of trust on both sides in this debate, and the type of concessions which the Kingdom will ask for are probably beyond the ability of the Biden administration to deliver.”

“The track record here is not promising,” Des Roches said. “The Saudis have been assured of US support and preferential access to US weapons in the past, and have been disappointed. In both the Trump and Obama administrations the Saudis received assurances that their requests for weapons would be ‘fast tracked’ through the bureaucracy, only to find that the fast track is still too slow for them.”

 Let’s move on to another topic, namely, two very tangible agreements in the field of military acquisitions. The US Marine Corps (USMC) is reportedly planning to purchase dozens of Iron Dome launchers and thousands of interceptor missiles in a deal that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The deal, which would see the USMC purchase three batteries’ worth of the Iron Dome system, would be conducted with Raytheon, which has a deal with Israeli manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to distribute the system to the United States.                                                            

The prime contractor for the development and production of the Iron Dome is Rafael, who adapted the system to USMC requirements and assisted with testing support.                                                                                                        Whereas the US marines anticipated the successful integration of the Iron Dome system, the US Army reluctantly purchased two Iron Dome systems after acquiescing to pressure from Congress. At the time, the US army’s top generals claimed the Iron Dome was incompatible with the US air-defence array. Apparently, the marines proved them wrong.

Though undoubtedly important, the Iron Dome Defence System deal is ‘small change’ when compared with the $3.5 billion sale of Israel's Arrow-3 missile defence system to Germany approved and concluded recently. US approval of the deal clears the way for delivery in 2025 and full operational deployment by 2030.

The deal with Germany is Israel's largest ever defence sale. It is part of a European arms build-up in response to Russia's war in Ukraine.

According to a statement issued by Israel's Defence Ministry the full contract will be ready to sign by the end of 2023. Israel and Germany will sign a Letter of Commitment, with a $600 million initial payment, to commence work on the project.

The Arrow-3 is an exoatmospheric hypersonic anti-ballistic missile, that uses a detachable warhead that collides with the target.  It is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the earth's atmosphere, at an altitude that facilitates the safe dispersal of any non-conventional warheads. The project is jointly funded, developed and produced by Israel and the United States. Undertaken by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing, it is overseen by the Israeli Ministry of Defence and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. 

A defence ministry spokesman was quoted as saying that additional German spending on Arrow-3 could raise the deal's value to $4 billion. The same spokesman added that other countries - which he declined to name - have voiced interest in the system. 

                                                                                                                            

At this juncture it’s important to note that Israel has repeatedly rebuffed requests to sell arms to Ukraine for fear of antagonising Moscow.                                                                                                                           The Arrow-3 is currently Israel’s most advanced long-range missile defence system, Work is underway on the development of a yet more advanced system, the Arrow-4.

Germany is seeking to bolster its air defences amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has sought to purchase the Arrow-3 system from Israel for more than a year now. The deal also came up in a meeting in April between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A number of commentators have emphasised the historic aspect of the Arrow-3 deal concluded seventy-five years after the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The director general of the Defence Ministry, Brig. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir, said the “landmark deal, the largest defence export agreement in our country’s history, will propel Israeli defence exports to a new record, following last year’s remarkable achievement of $12.5 billion.”

 

I can’t possibly conclude without putting a damper on the defence contracts good news.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed ministers and officials to confirm with him before holding or publicly reporting on any covert diplomatic meetings. The directive came after the debacle of Foreign Minister Eli Cohen's meeting in Rome with his Libyan counterpart. After news of the meeting broke, Libyans took to the streets in protest and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush was forced to flee to Turkey before being dismissed from her post. The prime minister claimed he was not informed in advance.

The original Israeli statement said the country’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, and Mangoush, his Libyan counterpart, spoke last week at a meeting in Rome hosted by the Italian foreign minister, Antonio Tajani.

Israeli officials claimed the meeting was pre-arranged by the Italian leadership and was not random or accidental, as the Libyans claimed. The Israeli and Libyan ministers even agreed to make public statements within a couple of days. Cohen returned to Israel intending to announce details of his diplomatic initiative, but someone beat him to it and leaked details of the meeting to the news media.

When the news broke, the ministry considered its options and decided to release an official statement late on Sunday, which as it turned out only made matters worse. Officials informed the government in Tripoli of the pending announcement and received no pushback from the Libyans.

The riots that ensued surprised officials in both countries. Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh first suspended his foreign minister who was shocked at how quickly she was thrown under the bus and hurried to leave the country by private jet to Istanbul. She was officially relieved of her post the following day after she said that her meeting with Cohen was with the explicit knowledge and approval of her prime minister.

 Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush

 In the aftermath of the unfortunate turn of events, members of the government, especially from the ruling Likud party, slammed Cohen and called him an amateur. "He leaked the meeting in order to get a newspaper headline and caused serious damage to Israel," one said. "Arab leaders will be reluctant to approach us in future.

Foreign Ministry officials were also critical of Cohen's conduct. Some told Ynet that he was an amateur in diplomacy. “When Israel's credibility is compromised, the outreach to other countries in the future will be affected. Cohen wanted to bring more countries into the peace process, but now he has shot himself in the foot."

 

With those assuring words I’ll conclude.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Beni

31/08/23